Dissecting Tesla’s Q3 2022 delivery count, and why it missed expectations

Credit: Tesla

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) released its Delivery and Production numbers for Q3 2022 on Sunday, and while the automaker delivered its most productive quarter as a company yet, it missed Wall Street’s expectations. But, there’s a lot more to take away from the figures than just a company record and a miss on analyst predictions.

For those who missed the press release, Tesla stated on Sunday morning that it had delivered 343,830 vehicles in Q3 2022, with 325,158 of them being Model 3 and Model Y, and the remaining 18,672 being Model S and Model X. Tesla reported that it produced over 22,100 vehicles more than it delivered, citing supply chain and logistics challenges as the culprit for the miss in deliveries. “As our production volumes continue to grow, it is becoming increasingly challenging to secure vehicle transportation capacity and at a reasonable cost during these peak logistics weeks,” it said regarding the final few weeks of the quarter, which have historically been where the company makes more deliveries compared to other weeks due to its end-of-quarter sales push.

There’s more to Q3, and here’s why:

Tesla still showed growth, rebounding from a miss in Q2

Tesla missed quarterly delivery growth for the first time in two-and-a-half years in Q2 2022. This was due to “ongoing supply chain challenges and factory shutdowns beyond our control,” Tesla said. As Gigafactory Shanghai battled shutdowns, Tesla clawed its way back to over 254,600 deliveries but did not sustain its streak of consecutive quarters with proven growth.

Nevertheless, Tesla beat Q2 handily and delivered more vehicles in Q3 than it ever has before, and it should. With two new production facilities launched this year in Austin and Germany, Tesla should be on the path to quarterly delivery and production growth for several years. This should not plateau for several years if things run ideally and Tesla, in a perfect world, would not experience any unforeseen interruptions in production. However, the world has weird plans, and the last two years are proof of that.

Tesla’s rebound to a new quarterly record is undoubtedly putting the company back on the right track. As Q4 begins, the final three months of 2022 will be Tesla’s final chance to not only establish another quarter of growth, but also a chance to beat analyst expectations, which it has done nearly every quarter since 2019.

Model S and Model X production reached its highest levels in three years

Tesla delivered 18,672 Model S and Model X vehicles last quarter, what Sawyer Merritt recognized as the most since Q4 2019.

This is interesting to note, as the vehicles have been in increased demand for the past year and a half since the release of the “Refreshed” and Plaid versions of the cars. Tesla has struggled to ramp and complete deliveries of the Model S and Model X since releasing the new trim levels, but the growth shows that, while they’re still “sentimental,” as CEO Elon Musk said, consumers are still interested in Tesla’s two flagship vehicles.

Tesla is not immune to supply chain issues. They are struggling like other automakers

Tesla put a paragraph in its press release explaining the “lighter” delivery figure it reported on Sunday:

“Historically, our delivery volumes have skewed towards the end of each quarter due to regional batch building of cars.  As our production volumes continue to grow, it is becoming increasingly challenging to secure vehicle transportation capacity and at a reasonable cost during these peak logistics weeks.  In Q3, we began transitioning to a more even regional mix of vehicle builds each week, which led to an increase in cars in transit at the end of the quarter.  These cars have been ordered and will be delivered to customers upon arrival at their destination.”

Tesla is not immune to supply chain issues, despite being incredibly vertically integrated. It seems as if the company did not necessarily get the timing right on some of the deliveries planned for the end of Q3, which bodes negatively for that quarter. However, it is a great way to start Q4, and investors can likely expect an extremely strong final quarter due to this, and the company’s notoriety of having the final three months of the year be its strongest.

Tesla is feeling the heat from the miss on Wall Street. At the time of writing, shares were down over 8 percent on the day.

Disclosure: Joey Klender is a TSLA Shareholder.

I’d love to hear from you! If you have any comments, concerns, or questions, please email me at joey@teslarati.com. You can also reach me on Twitter @KlenderJoey, or if you have news tips, you can email us at tips@teslarati.com.

Joey Klender: Joey has been a journalist covering electric mobility at TESLARATI since August 2019. In his time at TESLARATI, Joey has broken several big stories, including the first images of the Tesla Model S Plaid, the imminent release of the 4680 Model Y through EPA certification, and several expansions to the Lucid AMP-1 factory in Arizona, to name a few. His stories have been featured in several publications, including Yahoo! Finance, Fox News, CNET, and Seeking Alpha. In his spare time, Joey is playing golf, watching MMA, or cheering on any of his favorite sports teams, including the Baltimore Ravens and Orioles, Miami Heat, Washington Capitals, and Penn State Nittany Lions. You can get in touch with joey at joey@teslarati.com. He is also on Twitter @KlenderJoey.
Related Post
Disqus Comments Loading...