Connect with us

News

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk lays out Starship’s path to orbit with sights set on 2020 debut

Starship heads to orbit atop a Super Heavy booster. (SpaceX)

Published

6 years ago

on

Speaking on September 28th, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk sketched out a fairly detailed picture of Starship’s path to orbit, from the first flight of the first full-scale prototype to the spacecraft’s inaugural orbital launch atop a Super Heavy booster.

Incredibly, Musk was persistent with claims that he has challenged SpaceX’s Starship teams to conduct the next-generation rocket’s first orbital launch within six months, drawing a line in the sand around April 1st, 2020 (?). How, then, does the SpaceX CEO foresee the next year or so playing out?

A whole lotta ‘Ships

As is the company’s signature, Musk confirmed that the Starship development program will continue to be highly distributed, hardware-rich, and focused on an iterative and continuous process of learning by doing. Starhopper is perhaps the best emblem of this methodology, defying almost every conceivable aerospace industry norm to successfully build and repeatedly fly what was essentially a rocket built outside by water tower welders.

Starhopper may have scarcely been meant to fly at all, serving almost entirely as a proof of concept and learning experience, but Musk strongly suggested that future Starship prototypes will replicate its highly iterative, learning-on-the-job approach to development. In short, much like SpaceX has nearly completed Starship Mk1 (and Mk2) from scratch in less than six months, SpaceX’s development strategy involves building a lot of Starship prototypes as quickly as possible.

Specifically, Elon Musk stated – in his opinion – that SpaceX will likely attempt its first orbital Starship-Super Heavy launch immediately after Starship Mk1’s first flight attempt, a suborbital launch to ~20 km (12.5 mi). Assuming that test – far more critical than any of Starhopper’s travails – is successful, the very next Starship flight could be an orbital launch attempt.

Starship Mk1 is pictured here on September 27th, less than half a day after technicians stacked the prototype’s two halves. (Teslarati – Eric Ralph)

First and foremost, Musk was pretty clear that the rough schedule he laid out was a “stream of consciousness”. Indeed, the eccentric CEO contradicted (or updated) himself over the course of answering the same question, stating that “[SpaceX] would fly to orbit with [Starship] Mk3” before saying that that it would actually be “Mk4 or Mk5”. Musk is still undoubtedly set on announcing gobsmackingly ambitious schedules for his projects, but it’s worth noting just how serious he seemed while discussing Starship’s development timeline.

He noted that SpaceX will likely “have [Starship] Mk2 built within a couple of months – or less”, referring to the second prototype currently in the late stages of integration at the company’s similar Cocoa, FL facilities. Additionally, Musk indicated that Starship Mk3 – yet to begin construction in Boca Chica – could be finished as few three months from now (around the start of 2020), with Starship Mk4 – to be built in Florida – could be just one to two months behind (NET Feb/March 2020). Correcting his previous statement, whether intentional or not, Musk also added that SpaceX’s first orbital Starship launch attempt would likely involve either the Mk4 or Mk5 prototype and occur “less than six months from now”.

As a slight consolation to the eyewateringly ambitious timeline he laid out, Musk qualified his “six months to orbit” target by acknowledging that it would only be achievable “provided the rate of design and manufacturing improvement continues to be exponential”. If that remains the case, as he believes it has been over the last six or so months, then SpaceX could be ready for the first orbital Starship launch attempt as few as 6-9 months from now – sometime in the first half of 2020.

A lot will undoubtedly have to go very right for that to remain anywhere within the realm of plausibility. This includes the rapid maturation of Starship’s Raptor engine and vacuum-optimized variant, the successful completion of Starship Mk1’s 20km flight test, the assembly and static fire of the first Super Heavy booster(s), the construction of brand new orbital launch facilities, and the FAA’s approval of all aforementioned flight operations.

Advertisement

Needless to say, the odds are heavily stacked against Musk’s goal of reaching orbit within six months. There is undoubtedly a chance that SpaceX can pull it off, even if success would essentially involve constructing a bridge while driving off a cliff. However, the most important thing to note is that even if Elon Musk is a factor of 1.5, 2, 3, or even 4 times off and Starship reaches orbit for the first time 12 or 18 or 24 months from now, it will still have been an incredibly brisk period of development for a rocket as large, high-performance, and ambitious as Starship/Super Heavy.

It should also be made clear that, while it’s utterly beyond the present capabilities of NASA and other space agencies/companies of the 21st century, Saturn V went from paper to its first orbital launch in just five years. Depending on how one perceives Starship development, it could be said that SpaceX began development – particularly marked by Raptor engine prototype testing – as early as 2016. Suffice it to say that it’s far from impossible that Starship’s first orbital launch will happen next year, even if the challenges SpaceX faces are immense.

Check out Teslarati’s Marketplace! We offer Tesla accessories, including for the Tesla Cybertruck and Tesla Model 3.

Related Topics:

Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

Advertisement
Comments

News

Tesla pushes crazy ‘Luxe’ incentive package on flagship Model S and X

Tesla is pushing more customers to the Model S and Model X with a new incentive package.

Published

3 hours ago

on

August 16, 2025

By

Credit: Tesla

Tesla has pushed a crazy new incentive package, known as the “Luxe Package,” on the flagship Model S and Model X, along with a $10,000 price increase on each trim level.

The move aims to likely bolster margins for the company on the two cars while also giving those who choose to buy the Tesla lineup mainstays a variety of awesome advantages, including Free Supercharging, Full Self-Driving, and other add-ons.

Tesla is offering a crazy Supercharging incentive on its two ‘sentimental’ vehicles

Last night, Tesla launched the “Luxe Package” for the Model S and Model X, which includes the following four add-ons:

  • Full Self-Driving (Supervised) – Your car will be able to drive itself almost anywhere with minimal driver intervention
  • Four-Year Premium Service – Wheel and Tire Protection, Windshield Protection, and Recommended Maintenance
  • Supercharging – Charge for free at 70,000+ Superchargers worldwide
  • Premium Connectivity – Listen to music, stream movies, monitor live traffic, and more – no Wi-Fi needed

Full Self-Driving is priced at $8,000. Free Supercharging for the life of the car is between $10,000 and $15,000 over the life of the vehicle, although Tesla has valued it at $5,000 in recent promotions.

Free Premium Connectivity is roughly $1,000, and the four-year tire, wheel, windshield, and maintenance plan is about $3,200.

In all, the value is over $25,000, but this is loosely based on usage.

The Model S and Model X are low contributors to Tesla’s overall sales figures, as they make up less than five percent of sales from a quarterly perspective and have for some time.

As they are certainly the luxury choices in Tesla’s lineup, the Model 3 and Model Y are the bigger focus for the company, as a significantly larger portion of the company’s sales is made up of those vehicles.

The Luxe Package is an especially good idea for those who drive high-mileage and plan to use the Model S or Model X for commuting or long drives. The free Supercharging makes the deal worth it on its own.

As for the price bumps, each of the vehicles are now priced as follows:

  • Model S All-Wheel-Drive: $94,990
  • Model S Plaid: $109,990
  • Model X All-Wheel-Drive: $99,990
  • Model X Plaid: $114,990
Continue Reading

News

Tesla Roadster could have a formidable competitor with BYD’s 3000-HP supercar

The Roadster is one of the most anticipated vehicles of all time, especially because we’ve all had to wait so long for it. On its own, it will have a 1.9-second 0-60 MPH acceleration rate, which is projected to be better than the 2.3 seconds the U9 Track Edition will offer.

Published

5 hours ago

on

August 16, 2025

By

The Tesla Roadster is on the way, and yes, we know we’ve heard that for quite a few years. But when it comes, it might have a formidable competitor, and it might come from no one other than Chinese rival BYD.

BYD’s Yangwang U9 Track Edition is a new configuration of the U9 supercar that hit the Chinese Ministry of Information Technology (MIIT) database recently.

The vehicle was first spotted on the MIIT database by CarNewsChina. It will have a quad-motor powertrain, each dedicated to one wheel. Instead of the 1,287 horsepower that comes with the standard U9 configuration, the Track Edition will have 2,977.

There are only two cars that even come close in terms of horsepower: the Lotus Evija with 1,972 and the Rimac Nevera at 1,914 horsepower. The Tesla Roadster is expected to have somewhere around 1,000 horsepower.

The Roadster is one of the most anticipated vehicles of all time, especially because we’ve all had to wait so long for it. On its own, it will have a 1.9-second 0-60 MPH acceleration rate (without the SpaceX package, which brings the projection to 1.1 seconds), which is projected to be better than the 2.3 seconds the U9 Track Edition will offer.

The Roadster also beats the U9 Track Edition in projected top speed and range. The Roadster could top out at over 250 MPH, compared to the 217 conservative projection for the U9 Track Edition.

Range on the Roadster is 620 miles, beating 280 miles for the BYD.

The U9 Track Edition will also have some additional features compared to its base model. These include some aerodynamic additions, like a carbon fiber rear wing, diffuser, and an adjustable front splitter and adjustable rear wing.

The latter two are optional, but if you have enough scratch to drop on this car, you’re probably adding those two features as well.

We hope that both the Roadster and U9 Track Edition will hit a drag strip, road course, or even a superspeedway for some racing. It would truly be something for EV fans to drool over.

Continue Reading

News

Tesla is breaking even its own rules to cap off an intense Q3

Tesla is pulling out all the stops to have a strong Q3 as the EV tax credit will phase out.

Published

8 hours ago

on

August 16, 2025

By

Credit: MarcoRP | X

Tesla is breaking its own rules by advertising on various platforms in an effort to sell as many cars as possible before the end of the $7,500 electric vehicle tax credit.

Tesla has had a very polarizing perspective on advertising. Over the years, it has taken on different attitudes toward spending any money on marketing. It has instead put those dollars into research and development to make its vehicles more advanced.

Back in 2019, Tesla CEO Elon Musk talked about the company advertising its vehicles and energy products:

In 2021, in response to analyst Gary Black, who has pushed for Tesla to have a PR or marketing department, Musk said:

However, this did not hold as Tesla’s strategy for the long haul. While Musk did resist advertising for a long time, Tesla started placing ads on platforms like X, Google, and YouTube several years back. It’s pretty rare that Tesla pushes these ads, however.

Tesla launches advertising on X in the U.S., expanding ‘small scale’ strategy outlined by Musk

The company’s stance on setting aside capital for advertising seems to be circumstantial. Right now, it is working to sell as many vehicles as it can before the tax credit comes to a close.

As a result, it is pushing some ads on YouTube:

It’s a move that makes sense considering the timing. With just six weeks roughly left in the quarter, Tesla is going to work tirelessly to push as many cars into customer hands as possible. It will use every ounce of effort to get its products on people’s screens.

Tesla counters jab at lack of advertising with perfect response

Throw in one of the many incentives it is offering currently, and there will surely be some takers.

Continue Reading

Trending