

News
U.S. EV adoption is happening faster than anticipated
EV adoption in the U.S. happening much faster than anticipated, according to an observation of research by Recurrent Auto which is focused on providing transparency and confidence in pre-owned EV transactions. The research directly contradicts and challenges a statement by Jack Hollis, the executive vice president of sales at Toyota Motor North America.
According to Hollis, consumer demand isn’t sufficient enough for the mass adoption of battery electric vehicles to develop as fast as everyone would like. He added that battery electric vehicles cost too much and that the infrastructure isn’t ready for recharging the batteries away from home.
“I don’t think the market is ready. I don’t think the infrastructure is ready. And even if you were ready to purchase one, and if you could afford it … they’re still too high,” Hollis said.
Recurrent Auto: EV adoption is happening faster than expected
In an interview with Teslarati, Recurrent CEO, Scott Case shared an observation of a study by Boston Consulting Group (BCG) which has released a market projection for EV adoption annually since 2018.
Scott told me that Recurrent noticed that BCG repeated the same analysis four times since 2018 and has gotten it wrong each time.
“What we’ve seen every time they’ve done this is that they’ve just missed their forecast and gotten too low every single time.”
He said what was really interesting was that they were seeing BCG’s forecast and noticed that despite having all of the data and models, they’ve been “systematically under forecasting how fast the EV adoption is going to happen.”
The graph above shows how the EV sales projection for 2030 by BCG changed each time it released a report. According to BCG, EV sales projections in the U.S. for 2030 continued to grow to:
- 21% in the 2018 report
- 26% in the 2020 report
- 42% in the 2021 report
- 53% in the 2022 report
What Scott and the team at Recurrent found strange was that in the course of four years, the U.S. EV sales projections for 2030 more than doubled growing from an estimated 21% to 53%.
Scott pointed out that BCG isn’t the only company that has consistently missed how quickly the auto market is transitioning.
“The market adoption is just happening faster than any moment in the past. This is not about when we get to complete it, or what the numbers have been already. It’s what the best industry experts are forecasting about how fast this is going to happen.”
“We still have eight years between now and 2030. How many more times is this going to get forecasted? Eventually, they will get it right because we’ll be in 2030 and we’ll know exactly how many cars were sold that are EVs versus combustion engines. But there’s clearly only one direction that this adoption forecast is going.”
3 Major Factors
Scott went over the three major factors BCG uses in its model.
“First, it’s what are the projections for battery prices? This is a huge component of the cost of EVs. Second, is what the vehicle selection looks like and how many automakers are adopting different models. And the third is government policy changes. When you think about those three factors and over the course of the 2018-2022 models, you can sort of understand what’s been changing.”
Scott added that there was a 97% cost reduction in lithium-ion battery prices over the past three decades up to 2018.
“Since 2018, the decrease in cost flattened out, and even over the last year, it increased somewhat because of the supply chain difficulties and global issues. That’s not what was going on in this model. It’s not the battery price changes that are causing this forecast.”
“I think what you’re seeing over the course of this four-year period is the second factor. It’s vehicle selection and it translates into how many automakers are adopting and adding vehicles to their fleet. That’s a function of how automakers understand what consumers want to buy. I would say that this is a true reflection of market demand and not any government policy whether it’s a ban or a tax credit.”
Scott pointed out that next year, the Tesla Model Y will be the global best-selling vehicle without any help from any tax credit.
“You know what car it’s knocking off? It’s the Toyota Camry.”
One thing that BCG’s 2022 forecast did not include was the impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act which was signed just last month. Another thing not reflected in the 2022 forecast was California’s proposed ban on the sale of gasoline vehicles in 2034.
“California just passed the total ban on new ICE sales in 2035. Washington State where I live has–it’s nonbinding but it’s a 2030 cut-off. I’m not sure either of those is actually going to be needed because I think that the market going to take care of the transition well before those sales projections happen.”
“The most recent run of the BCG estimate was in the spring. They ran the model in the spring and published it in June. At that point, the Inflation Reduction Act was dead. Everyone thought the EV tax credit was dead and done. That doesn’t even reflect the impact of that. I would expect the next time that this model gets to run in 2023, you’ve got the impact of the EV tax credit which is a ten-year run, and the California gas car ban for 2035.”
He also said the bans will probably not be needed due to how fast the market is transitioning to EVs before they take effect. The forecast will most likely be even higher once they account for tax credits and the changing government policies.
“There’s room to grow here.”
Note: Johnna is a Tesla shareholder and supports its mission.
Your feedback is important. If you have any comments, concerns, or see a typo, you can email me at johnna@teslarati.com. You can also reach me on Twitter @JohnnaCrider1
Elon Musk
Tesla Robotaxi gets shade thrown on it by ex-Waymo CEO
“If they were striving to re-create today’s Bay Area Uber experience, looks like they’ve absolutely nailed it.”

Tesla Robotaxi is getting more shade thrown on it by skeptics from all corners of the industry. Recently, it received some criticism from ex-Waymo CEO John Krafcik, who led the currently sits on the board of Tesla rival Rivian.
Robotaxi is Tesla’s self-driving ride-hailing service that operates in both Austin, Texas, and the San Francisco Bay Area.
In Austin, it launched on June 22, and it was the first city where Tesla launched driverless rides to a select group of invited guests. That group, as well as the geofence in Austin, has expanded several times in the roughly two months since its launch.
In the Bay, Tesla is not legally allowed to call the platform “Robotaxi,” so it refers to it as its ride-hailing service. This was confirmed by CEO Elon Musk.
However, Krafcik, who was with Waymo for about seven years, is skeptical of the Robotaxi fleet, basically calling it less than impressive and stating that it is a lot like Uber in San Francisco.
In an interview with Business Insider, Krafcik revealed his true thoughts about Tesla’s efforts:
“If they were striving to re-create today’s Bay Area Uber experience, looks like they’ve absolutely nailed it.”
He went on to say that the company’s decision to keep Safety Monitors in the vehicle for the time being makes the vehicle not a Robotaxi. In Austin, there is not a Safety Monitor in the driver’s seat, only in the front passenger’s seat.
In the Bay Area, there is a Safety Monitor in the driver’s seat, which is a regulatory requirement with the platform currently.
Krafcik continued:
“Please let me know when Tesla launches a robotaxi — I’m still waiting. It’s (rather obviously) not a robotaxi if there’s an employee inside the car.”
The presence of a Safety Monitor is only a measure of precaution currently, and Tesla has said that it is purely a move to ensure riders are kept out of danger.
Musk said recently that Tesla is being “paranoid” over safety, and for good reason. Any instance of an accident could set Tesla, or any self-driving program for that matter, back years.
Unfortunately, Krafcik said he has no desire to try Robotaxi, so it won’t get a fair shot at changing his mind.
News
Comprehensive Tesla Model Y L insights shared by early reviewer
The Model Y L could very well become Tesla’s best-selling family vehicle by a mile.

An early reviewer of the Tesla Model Y L in China has teased what could very well be the most comprehensive list of features that has been shared so far about the upcoming extended wheelbase crossover.
Based on the early reviewer’s insights, the Model Y L could very well become Tesla’s best-selling family vehicle by a mile.
Model Y L sightings
The Tesla Model Y L has reportedly entered production in Giga Shanghai, though the vehicle itself is not being sold in the company’s domestic website as of yet. That being said, sightings from the electric vehicle community have suggested that Tesla China is now hard at work transporting Model Y L units to select stores across the country.
The Model Y L was listed in the China Ministry of Industry and Information Technology’s (MIIT) latest batch of new energy vehicle models that are eligible for vehicle purchase tax exemptions. Based on the MIIT’s filings, the vehicle will feature a 82.0-kWh lithium-ion battery from LG Energy Solution. It is also expected to add roughly 178 mm (7 inches) to the overall length of the standard Model Y, with 152 mm (6 inches) being dedicated to stretching the wheelbase.
New Model Y L insights
A China-based blogger who reportedly previewed the Model Y L ahead of an expected nondisclosure agreement lift on Tuesday or Wednesday shared some of the vehicle’s alleged updates. As per the blogger, the Model Y L’s biggest updates focus on comfort and interior features. The front seats have reportedly been reworked with better cushioning, leg rests and lumbar support, though they do not add zero-gravity seating or massage functions.
The vehicle also comes with Continuous Damping Control suspension, a larger central display and an upgraded audio system with about 18 speakers, which was described as a significant improvement in sound quality. Amenities have reportedly been expanded for passengers in all three rows. Heating and ventilation will reportedly be available in the first and second rows, while the third row will have heating only.
The third-row space was described as adequate, with a passenger standing 1.78 meters tall reportedly being able to sit with a fist’s worth of headroom. Tesla’s minimalist interior design reportedly remains, but the second row now includes armrests. Both the second and third rows also reportedly fold flat to form a large bed, though not as flat as the standard Model Y. A voice wake-up feature, “Hi Tesla,” is also included for China models.
News
FAA clears SpaceX for Starship Flight 10 after probe into Flight 9 mishap
SpaceX will attempt a Gulf splashdown for Flight 10 once more instead of a tower capture.

The Federal Aviation Administration has closed its review of SpaceX’s Starship Flight 9 mishap, clearing the way for the next launch attempt as soon as August 24.
Flight 9 ended with the loss of both the Super Heavy booster and the upper stage, but regulators accepted SpaceX’s findings that a fuel component failure was the root cause. No public safety concerns were reported from the incident.
Starship recovery lessons
SpaceX noted that Flight 9 marked the first reuse of a Super Heavy booster. Unlike prior attempts, the company did not try a tower “chopsticks” recovery, opting instead for an offshore return that ended in a destructive breakup. The upper stage was also lost over the Indian Ocean.
As per the FAA in its statement, “There are no reports of public injury or damage to public property. The FAA oversaw and accepted the findings of the SpaceX-led investigation. The final mishap report cites the probable root cause for the loss of the Starship vehicle as a failure of a fuel component. SpaceX identified corrective actions to prevent a reoccurrence of the event.”
SpaceX also highlighted that Flight 9’s debris did not harm any wildlife. “SpaceX works with an experienced global response provider to retrieve any debris that may wash up in South Texas and/or Mexico as a result of Starship flight test operations. During the survey of the expected debris field from the booster, there was no evidence of any floating or deceased marine life that would signal booster debris impact harmed animals in the vicinity,” the private space company noted.
Expanding test objectives
To mitigate risks, SpaceX plans to adjust return angles for future flights and conduct additional landing burn tests on Flight 10. SpaceX will attempt a Gulf splashdown for Flight 10 once more, instead of a tower capture, according to a report from the Boston Herald.
The upcoming Starship Flight 10, which will be launching from Starbase in Texas, will also mark SpaceX’s attempt to perform its first payload deployment and an in-space Raptor relight. Despite recent setbacks, which include the last three flights ending with the upper stage experiencing a rapid unscheduled disassembly (RUD), Starship remains central to NASA’s Artemis program, with a variant tapped as the human landing system for Artemis III, the first since the Apollo program.
Standing more than 400 feet tall and generating 16 million pounds of thrust, Starship remains the most powerful rocket flown, though it has yet to complete an orbital mission. The FAA has expanded SpaceX’s license to allow up to 25 Starship flights annually from Texas.
-
Elon Musk2 weeks ago
Elon Musk teases crazy new Tesla FSD model: here’s when it’s coming
-
Elon Musk1 week ago
Elon Musk confirms Tesla AI6 chip is Project Dojo’s successor
-
News1 week ago
Tesla Model Y L reportedly entered mass production in Giga Shanghai
-
Elon Musk1 week ago
Tesla CEO Elon Musk details massive FSD update set for September release
-
Cybertruck1 week ago
Tesla’s new upgrade makes the Cybertruck extra-terrestrial
-
News1 week ago
Elon Musk reaffirms Tesla Semi mass production in 2026
-
Elon Musk2 weeks ago
Tesla ‘activist shareholders’ sue company and Elon Musk for Robotaxi rollout
-
News1 week ago
Elon Musk explains why Tesla stepped back from Project Dojo