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Robots like Tesla Optimus are a $5 trillion opportunity: analyst

This massive opportunity could be tapped by Tesla, thanks to its Optimus humanoid robot.

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Credit: Tesla

Morgan Stanley analysts have estimated that the humanoid robot market could offer a $5 trillion opportunity by the middle of the century. This massive opportunity could be tapped by Tesla, thanks to its Optimus humanoid robot.

The analysts, however, noted that the humanoid robots will likely be mostly used in industrial and commercial deployments.

The Estimates

Estimates from Morgan Stanley analysts point to humanoid robots hitting $5 trillion in global revenue by 2050. This, the analysts noted, would be about double the total revenue of the 20 largest automakers in 2024. In 2050, Morgan Stanley analysts estimated that there might be about 1 billion humanoid robots deployed.

As noted in a report from Investing.com, the shift to humanoid robots would be gradual. By 2035, the analysts estimated that just about 13 million humanoid robots will be in use, most of which will be used in industrial and commercial settings. Even in 2050, when the analysts estimated that 1 billion humanoid robots will be in use, an estimated 90% might still be used in industrial and commercial settings.

The advent of humanoid robots will likely be felt in the labor sector, Morgan Stanley analysts noted. By 2030, the analysts noted that humanoid robots could replace about 40,000 jobs. Just ten years later, in 2040, the number of jobs that robots could take over could balloon to 8.4 million. By 2050, the analysts noted that 62.7 million humans may end up watching humanoid robots do their jobs.

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Tesla Potential

Morgan Stanley noted that companies like Tesla, which control the “brains, bodies, branding and ecosystems” of the humanoid robots, would be able to offer the highest value. This is good news for Tesla’s Optimus program, as it is a product that is designed to be produced at an extreme scale. During the Q1 2025 All Hands meeting, Elon Musk reiterated the idea that Optimus could very well become the biggest product of all time.

Most importantly, Musk also stated that Tesla is internally aiming to acquire enough resources to produce 10,000 to 12,000 Optimus robots this year. But even if Tesla just manages half of this number, or about 5,000 Optimus robots this year, it would already be impressive.

“Even 5,000 robots, that’s the size of a Roman legion, FYI, which is like a little scary thought. Like a whole legion of robots, I’ll be like ‘whoa.’ But I think we will literally build a legion, at least one legion of robots this year, and then probably 10 legions next year. I think it’s kind of a cool unit, you know? Units of legion. So probably 50,000-ish next year,” Musk stated.

Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Tesla confirms massive hardware change for autonomy improvement

Tesla has confirmed that a recent change made to some of its recently refreshed vehicles is, in fact, a strategy it will use to improve its suite as it continues to work toward autonomy.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla has confirmed that a recent change made to some of its recently refreshed vehicles is, in fact, a strategy it will use to improve its suite as it continues to work toward autonomy.

Tesla first introduced a front-facing camera on the front bumper with the Cybertruck and new Model 3 “Highland” over the past couple of years.

Then, the Model Y “Juniper” received the hardware update. The Model S and Model X both received the front-facing camera with its latest update, which was officially revealed last week.

Tesla used new language with the release of the front-facing cameras on the Model S and Model X, confirming they will assist with several things, including “using Autopilot and Actually Smart Summon capabilities”:

“Enhanced visibility when parking or using Autopilot and Actually Smart Summon capabilities.”

This tiny feature on the new Tesla Model Y is perhaps its biggest addition

This is the first time Tesla has used this sort of language, as it was a completely different description with the launch of the new Model Y in January.

When Tesla launched this vehicle, it said the front bumper camera “provides a wider field of view for automatic assisted driving and advanced Smart Summon.”

Tesla switched from using cameras and sensors to only cameras with the launch of Tesla Vision several years ago. The company’s utilization of cameras comes from Tesla’s belief that Ultrasonic Sensors (USS) are not needed for self-driving efforts:

“Along with the removal of USS, we simultaneously launched our vision-based occupancy network – currently used in Full Self-Driving (FSD) (Supervised) – to replace the inputs generated by USS. With today’s software, this approach gives Autopilot high-definition spatial positioning, longer range visibility and the ability to identify and differentiate between objects. As with many Tesla features, our occupancy network will continue to improve rapidly over time.”

CEO Elon Musk has said that sensors were only a crutch and that self-driving would be solved through the use of cameras:

“When your vision works, it works better than the best human because it’s like having eight cameras, it’s like having eyes in the back of your head, beside your head, and has three eyes of different focal distances looking forward. This is — and processing it at a speed that is superhuman. There’s no question in my mind that with a pure vision solution, we can make a car that is dramatically safer than the average person.”

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Tesla features used to flunk 16-year-old’s driver license test

A license examiner in New Jersey confused one standard feature of Teslas as a way a 16-year-old excelled through his driver’s test. He failed him because of it.

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Credit: @JasemAsh via Tesla Owners Wisconsin/Twitter

In what is becoming a more common occurrence, a few Tesla features were used to flunk a 16-year-old who took his driver’s license test in New Jersey.

It is not the first time this has happened, as we have reported on several instances of this in the past, both in the U.S. and other countries in the world.

It is evidence that some officials are not caught up in the technology and innovation occurring in the automotive market, some of which is not necessarily exclusive to Tesla, but is included in each of its models, unlike other companies.

Lochlan Keefer, a New Jersey resident, showed up to his driver’s test with his dad, James, in their 2022 Tesla Model Y. However, the test did not go according to plan, according to the examiner who rode along for the test with Lochlan. They accused him of using parking and “stopping assistance” to go through the test.

The examiner cited the following as the reason for failure:

“Had the parking and stopping assistance on never stepped on the brake to stop his self let the vehicle stop it self.”

James said to NJ.com that they do not subscribe to Tesla’s Full Self-Driving suite, which includes things like Autopark, Navigate on Autopilot, and Autosteer on City Streets. These are a few of the things that have been used as reasoning to fail drivers in tests. Lochlan’s was a case of regenerative braking, which is standard on all vehicles, and Autopark:

“The examiner accused my son of using driver assistance features simply because he parallel parked smoothly on the first try. He was specifically accused of using paid parking-assist and driving features, which we do not subscribe to.”

It sounds as if the examiner may have confused the braking mishap for Tesla’s regenerative braking, which slows the vehicle when the accelerator is not pressed. The energy is then stored back in the battery to help with range.

The examiner failed Lochlan, and James asked if he could take the test again if they disabled the regenerative braking for the exam. The examiner said Lochlan would have to wait two weeks. A supervisor came out and backed the examiner, but James said the policy the DMV claimed the Keefer’s violated was nowhere to be found:

“I asked them to show me the policy they claimed we were violating. They couldn’t find it and they couldn’t cite it. When I showed them the policy, they refused to read it.”

The report states that drivers in California and Arizona have also been subjected to failures on their driving tests due to confusion over Teslas and their driver assistance features.

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Tesla Robotaxi just got a big benefit from the U.S. government

The NHTSA is looking to help streamline the application process for companies developing driverless vehicles.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla Robotaxi just got a big benefit from the U.S. Government, as the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) is looking to ease some rules and streamline the application process that could hinder the development and licensing of autonomous vehicles.

Tesla is set to launch its Robotaxi platform in the coming days or weeks, but regulation on autonomous vehicles is incredibly slim, so automakers are left in a strange limbo as permissions to operate are usually up to local jurisdictions.

The NHTSA still has the ultimate say, but it is now adopting a new strategy that will see companies gain an exemption from federal safety standards and streamline the entire application process.

The agency is authorized to grant exemptions to permit manufacturers to produce vehicles over a two or three-year period that might not comply with certain Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards (FMVSS). Robotaxi, for example, will eventually not have a steering wheel or pedals, through the Cybercab that Tesla unveiled last October.

The exemption program the NHTSA announced today would be possible through Part 555 of the National Traffic and Motor Vehicle Safety Act:

“NHTSA may grant a Part 555 exemption if at least one of four bases listed in the statute is met and NHTSA determines that the exemption is consistent with the public interest and the Safety Act. The statute also authorizes NHTSA to subject an exemption to terms the agency deems appropriate and requires that NHTSA publish notice of the application and provide an opportunity to comment.”

The rapid and non-stop innovation that is being performed is tough to keep up with from a legal standpoint. The NHTSA recognizes this and says current legislation is appropriate for traditional vehicles, but not for the self-driving cars companies are producing now:

“The current Part 555 process was designed for traditional vehicles. As currently applied, this process is not well suited for processing exemptions involving ADS-equipped vehicles in a timely manner or overseeing the unique complexities involving their operations. This has resulted in long processing times for applications for ADS-equipped vehicles. NHTSA must improve its Part 555 processing times substantially to keep pace with the rapid innovation of the ADS industry and to ensure that exemptions remain effective tools for nurturing groundbreaking safety technologies.”

Now, the NHTSA will be “enhancing application instructions” to help manufacturers understand the requirements involved in the application process. This will streamline the entire process by “reducing the need for NHTSA to request additional information from the manufacturer,” the agency says.

First Tesla driverless robotaxi spotted in the wild in Austin, TX

Next, the NHTSA is going to have a more flexible approach to evaluating exemptions for ADS-equipped vehicles:

“To build flexibility into the Part 555 process while also accounting for the unique aspects of those exemptions, NHTSA intends to develop terms that could be included in Part 555 exemption grants, when appropriate, to condition operations of exempted ADS-equipped vehicles on enhanced and continuing oversight from NHTSA. NHTSA would expect to administer this enhanced oversight through letters, which could be updated over time, mirroring real-world ADS development. This will enable NHTSA to focus its initial review during the application stage and align the Part 555 oversight approach more closely to exemptions administered under NHTSA’s Automated Vehicle Exemption Program (AVEP), which have proven effective for ADS.”

This will benefit any company making autonomous vehicles, but it will especially benefit Tesla in the short-term as it is readying for the launch of Robotaxi.

Tesla is trading up 1.89 percent at the time of publication.

Part 555 Letter June 2025 by Joey Klender on Scribd

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