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Analysts Tour Tesla Factory, Cite “Stunning Progress”
Analysts from Credit Suisse, Stifel Financial and Baird toured the Tesla factory recently. All were favorably impressed with the progress Tesla has made at its production facility.
Analysts from Stifel Financial, Credit Suisse, and Robert W. Baird were given a tour of the Tesla factory in Fremont, California recently. Afterward, they got a chance to sit down with Tesla CFO Jason Wheeler. According to Bloomberg, Steifel analyst James Albertine said,“In roughly one year since our last visit, the progress witnessed is truly stunning.” Tesla has invested amost $1.6 billion in upgrades to the factory in the past 12 months as it prepares to begin manufacturing the Model 3.
Lessons Learned
Credit Suisse analyst Dan Galves reports that Tesla has learned valuable lessons from the Model S and Model X. In particular, he says that engineers were in charge of the Model X design process, leaving little room for input from financing, manufacturing, and purchasing departments. Now all groups seem to have an equal voice. “Model 3 launch timing and ease of mass production is significantly more important than it was for the Model X,” Galves wrote. “On the Model 3, management indicated that there is a clear focus on ease of build, on-time launch, and cost.”
Battery Costs Tumbing
Robert Baird’s analyst, Benjamin Kallo, says the factory tour convinced him the cost of batteries for Tesla are already half what the rest of the industry is paying and are continuing to fall faster than anticipated. As a result of his findings, he has raised his rating on Tesla stock to “outperform” and set a target price of $300 a share.
Faster Assembly Lines
All the analysts noted the presence of many more robots on the assembly line since their last visit, but there are more human workers as well. Tesla says it boosted its work force by 29% last year. The total number of people employed at the factory now stands at 13,058.
There are “several football field sized areas spanning the entry to the facility with desks, computers and seemingly invigorated staff,” James Albertine writes. “There was an energy and buzz within the facility that is hard to imagine as an outsider.”
“Robotics systems are customized, production processes are revolutionary, and attention-to-detail/supply chain management is improving by the minute,” Albertine writes. “We do not believe this production process is one competitors can easily recreate.” Benjamin Kallo of Baird & Co says Tesla’s manufacturing skills will help the company reach its target of more than 25% gross profit margins on the Model X.
The analysts noted that the pace of the Model S assembly line is considerably faster than it was at the time of their last visit. By contrast, the Model X line moves quite a bit slower, with only one Model X built for every 6 or 7 Modes S sedans assembled.
New Stamping Equipment
Credit Suisse analyst Dan Galves commented in his notes after the tour that Tesla’s new aluminum stamping press has 10 to 20 times the output of Tesla’s older machine. That will help the company keep up with demand for its Model S and Model X aluminum bodied cars. The analysts also noted that the new paint shop, with an annual capacity of 500,000 cars, is complete and ready to finish all the cars the company thinks it will be selling by the time the year 2020 arrives.
In all, the analysts were very impressed with what they saw in Fremont and feel the production side of the company is ready, willing, and able to meet all of Tesla’s sales goals for the near and medium term.
Photo credit: Tesla Motors
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Tesla confirms that it finally solved its 4680 battery’s dry cathode process
The suggests the company has finally resolved one of the most challenging aspects of its next-generation battery cells.
Tesla has confirmed that it is now producing both the anode and cathode of its 4680 battery cells using a dry-electrode process, marking a key breakthrough in a technology the company has been working to industrialize for years.
The update, disclosed in Tesla’s Q4 and FY 2025 update letter, suggests the company has finally resolved one of the most challenging aspects of its next-generation battery cells.
Dry cathode 4680 cells
In its Q4 and FY 2025 update letter, Tesla stated that it is now producing 4680 cells whose anode and cathode were produced during the dry electrode process. The confirmation addresses long-standing questions around whether Tesla could bring its dry cathode process into sustained production.
The disclosure was highlighted on X by Bonne Eggleston, Tesla’s Vice President of 4680 batteries, who wrote that “both electrodes use our dry process.”
Tesla first introduced the dry-electrode concept during its Battery Day presentation in 2020, pitching it as a way to simplify production, reduce factory footprint, lower costs, and improve energy density. While Tesla has been producing 4680 cells for some time, the company had previously relied on more conventional approaches for parts of the process, leading to questions about whether a full dry-electrode process could even be achieved.
4680 packs for Model Y
Tesla also revealed in its Q4 and FY 2025 Update Letter that it has begun producing battery packs for certain Model Y vehicles using its in-house 4680 cells. As per Tesla:
“We have begun to produce battery packs for certain Model Ys with our 4680 cells, unlocking an additional vector of supply to help navigate increasingly complex supply chain challenges caused by trade barriers and tariff risks.”
The timing is notable. With Tesla preparing to wind down Model S and Model X production, the Model Y and Model 3 are expected to account for an even larger share of the company’s vehicle output. Ensuring that the Model Y can be equipped with domestically produced 4680 battery packs gives Tesla greater flexibility to maintain production volumes in the United States, even as global battery supply chains face increasing complexity.
Elon Musk
Tesla Giga Texas to feature massive Optimus V4 production line
This suggests that while the first Optimus line will be set up in the Fremont Factory, the real ramp of Optimus’ production will happen in Giga Texas.
Tesla will build Optimus 4 in Giga Texas, and its production line will be massive. This was, at least, as per recent comments by CEO Elon Musk on social media platform X.
Optimus 4 production
In response to a post on X which expressed surprise that Optimus will be produced in California, Musk stated that “Optimus 4 will be built in Texas at much higher volume.” This suggests that while the first Optimus line will be set up in the Fremont Factory, and while the line itself will be capable of producing 1 million humanoid robots per year, the real ramp of Optimus’ production will happen in Giga Texas.
This was not the first time that Elon Musk shared his plans for Optimus’ production at Gigafactory Texas. During the 2025 Annual Shareholder Meeting, he stated that Giga Texas’ Optimus line will produce 10 million units of the humanoid robot per year. He did not, however, state at the time that Giga Texas would produce Optimus V4.
“So we’re going to launch on the fastest production ramp of any product of any large complex manufactured product ever, starting with building a one-million-unit production line in Fremont. And that’s Line one. And then a ten million unit per year production line here,” Musk stated.
How big Optimus could become
During Tesla’s Q4 and FY 2025 earnings call, Musk offered additional context on the potential of Optimus. While he stated that the ramp of Optimus’ production will be deliberate at first, the humanoid robot itself will have the potential to change the world.
“Optimus really will be a general-purpose robot that can learn by observing human behavior. You can demonstrate a task or verbally describe a task or show it a task. Even show it a video, it will be able to do that task. It’s going to be a very capable robot. I think long-term Optimus will have a very significant impact on the US GDP.
“It will actually move the needle on US GDP significantly. In conclusion, there are still many who doubt our ambitions for creating amazing abundance. We are confident it can be done, and we are making the right moves technologically to ensure that it does. Tesla, Inc. has never been a company to shy away from solving the hardest problems,” Musk stated.
Elon Musk
Rumored SpaceX-xAI merger gets apparent confirmation from Elon Musk
The comment follows reports that the rocket maker is weighing a transaction that could further consolidate Musk’s space and AI ventures.
Elon Musk appeared to confirm reports that SpaceX is exploring a potential merger with artificial intelligence startup xAI by responding positively to a post about the reported transaction on X.
Musk’s comment follows reports that the rocket maker is weighing a transaction that could further consolidate his space and AI ventures.
SpaceX xAI merger
As per a recent Reuters report, SpaceX has held discussions about merging with xAI, with the proposed structure potentially involving an exchange of xAI shares for SpaceX stock. The value, structure, and timing of any deal have not been finalized, and no agreement has been signed.
Musk appeared to acknowledge the report in a brief reply on X, responding “Yeah” to a post that described SpaceX as a future “Dyson Swarm company.” The comment references a Dyson Swarm, a sci-fi megastructure concept that consists of a massive network of satellites or structures that orbit a celestial body to harness its energy.
Reuters noted that two entities were formed in Nevada on January 21 to facilitate a potential transaction for the possible SpaceX-xAI merger. The discussions remain ongoing, and a transaction is not yet guaranteed, however.
AI and space infrastructure
A potential merger with xAI would align with Musk’s stated strategy of integrating artificial intelligence development with space-based systems. Musk has previously said that space-based infrastructure could support large-scale computing by leveraging continuous solar energy, an approach he has framed as economically scalable over time.
xAI already has operational ties to Musk’s other companies. The startup develops Grok, a large language model that holds a U.S. Department of Defense contract valued at up to $200 million. AI also plays a central role in SpaceX’s Starlink and Starshield satellite programs, which rely on automation and machine learning for network management and national security applications.
Musk has previously consolidated his businesses through share-based transactions, including Tesla’s acquisition of SolarCity in 2016 and xAI’s acquisition of X last year. Bloomberg has also claimed that Musk is considering a merger between SpaceX and Tesla in the future.
Tesla confirms that it finally solved its 4680 battery’s dry cathode process
Tesla Giga Texas to feature massive Optimus V4 production line
