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Baird sees potential Tesla (TSLA) upside with Q3 deliveries, Robotaxi event

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Tesla stock (NASDAQ:TSLA) has been seeing some momentum as of late. But as per Baird analyst Ben Kallo in a recent note, there may be more gains to come for the electric vehicle maker in the coming weeks. In a note to clients, Kallo maintained his “Outperform” rating and $280 per share price target for TSLA stock. 

The analyst stated that Tesla shares could see some upside after the company reports its third quarter 2024 vehicle deliveries next week. TSLA stock may also see some more momentum when the company holds its highly-anticipated Robotaxi event on October 10, 2024, the analyst noted. 

“The near-term setup is favorable in our view, and we are buyers into both the deliveries released (estimated Oct. 2) and Robotaxi event (Oct. 10)… With the Robotaxi unveil event shortly after the estimated deliveries date, we speculate that even an in-line or weaker deliveries number would be viewed by investors as a look-through with a significant potential catalyst coming soon after,” Kallo wrote in his note.

The analyst stated that he is expecting Tesla to unveil a lower-cost electric car together with the Robotaxi at the October 10 event. Such a vehicle could boost the outlook for TSLA stock, Kallo noted. 

“We see the launch of a lower-priced vehicle as a positive for volume estimates in 2025, however, we note that switching production to enable a new vehicle would likely come with some factory downtime which may create lumpiness in deliveries,” the analyst wrote. 

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The Baird analyst highlighted that Tesla’s Q3 numbers are trending positively based on new vehicle registration data from China, as well as the absence of any factory downtime this quarter. Kallo expects Tesla to deliver 480,000 vehicles this Q3, which is well above the current FactSet consensus of 462,000 vehicles, as noted in a MarketWatch report.

Kallo also expects Tesla to deliver 1.83 million vehicles this 2024, which is also higher than FactSet consensus of 1.78 million. 

Tesla shares have gone up 35.7% through Tuesday. In comparison, the Global X Autonomous & Electric Vehicles ETF has dropped 3.2%, and the S&P 500 has risen 4.8% in the same period. 

Watch the Baird analyst discuss his recent outlook on Tesla in the video below.

Don’t hesitate to contact us with news tips. Just send a message to simon@teslarati.com to give us a heads up.

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Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Elon Musk

UPDATE: Tesla investors push Charles Schwab for Musk comp plan clarification

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tesla cybertruck elon musk
Tesla CEO Elon Musk unveils futuristic Cybertruck in Los Angeles, Nov. 21, 2019 (Photo: Teslarati)

Update: 4:00 p.m. EDT – Charles Schwab has reached out to TESLARATI with the following statement, clarifying that it plans to vote FOR Musk’s compensation package:

“Schwab Asset Management’s approach to voting on proxy matters is thorough and deliberate. We utilize a structured process that focuses on protecting and promoting shareholder value. We apply our own internal guidelines and do not rely on recommendations from Glass Lewis or ISS. In accordance with this process, Schwab Asset Management intends to vote in favor of the 2025 CEO performance award proposal. We firmly believe that supporting this proposal aligns both management and shareholder interests, ensuring the best outcome for all parties involved.”
There have also been updates to the headline and various paragraphs to reflect this as well as accuracy.

Tesla investors are pushing Charles Schwab for clarification after it was expected to vote against CEO Elon Musk’s pay package.

Several high-profile Tesla influencers are speaking out against Charles Schwab, saying its decision to vote against the plan that would retain Musk as CEO and give him potentially more voting power if he can achieve the tranches set by the company’s Board of Directors.

The Tesla community appeared to see that Schwab is one firm that tends to vote against Musk’s compensation plans, as they also voted against the CEO’s 2018 pay package, which was passed by shareholders but then denied by a Delaware Chancery Court.

Schwab’s move was recognized by investors within the Tesla community and now they are speaking out about it:

At least six of Charles Schwab’s ETFs were expected to vote against Tesla’s Board recommendation to support the compensation plan for Musk. The six ETFs represent around 7 million Tesla $TSLA shares.

Jason DeBolt, an all-in Tesla shareholder, summarized the firm’s decision really well:

As a custodian of ETF shares, your fiduciary duty is to vote in shareholders’ best interests. For a board that has delivered extraordinary returns, voting against their recommendations doesn’t align with retail investors, Tesla employees, or the leadership we invested to support. If Schwab’s proxy voting policies don’t reflect shareholder interests, my followers and I will move our collective tens of millions in $TSLA shares (or possibly hundreds of millions) to a broker that does, via account transfer as soon as this week.”
Tesla shareholders will vote on Musk’s pay package on Thursday at the Annual Shareholders Meeting in Austin, Texas.

It seems more likely than not that it will pass, but investors have made it clear they want a decisive victory, as it could clear the path for any issues with shareholder lawsuits in the future, as it did with Musk’s past pay package.

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Elon Musk

Norway’s $2 trillion sovereign wealth fund votes against Elon Musk’s 2025 performance award

The fund is managed by Norges Bank Investment Management (NBIM), and it holds a 1.14% stake in Tesla valued at about $11.6 billion.

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MINISTÉRIO DAS COMUNICAÇÕES, CC BY 2.0 , via Wikimedia Commons

Norway’s $2 trillion sovereign wealth fund has voted against Elon Musk’s 2025 performance award, which will be ultimately decided at Tesla’s upcoming annual shareholder meeting. 

The fund is managed by Norges Bank Investment Management (NBIM), and it holds a 1.14% stake in Tesla valued at about $11.6 billion.

NBIM’s opposition

NBIM confirmed it had already cast its vote against Musk’s pay package, citing concerns over its total size, dilution, and lack of mitigation of key person risk, as noted in a CNBC report. The fund acknowledged Musk’s leadership of the EV maker, and it stated that it will continue to seek dialogue with Tesla about its concerns. 

“While we appreciate the significant value created under Mr. Musk’s visionary role, we are concerned about the total size of the award, dilution, and lack of mitigation of key person risk- consistent with our views on executive compensation. We will continue to seek constructive dialogue with Tesla on this and other topics,” NBIM noted.

The upcoming Tesla annual shareholder meeting will decide whether Musk should receive his proposed 2025 performance award, which would grant him large stock options over the next decade if Tesla hits several ambitious milestones, such as a market cap of $8.5 trillion. The 2025 performance award will also increase Musk’s stake in Tesla to 25%.

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Elon Musk and NBIM

Elon Musk’s proposed 2025 CEO performance award has proven polarizing, with large investors split on whether the executive should be given a pay package that, if fully completed, would make him a trillionaire. 

Institutional Shareholder Services and Glass Lewis have recommended that shareholders vote against the deal, and initiatives such as the “Take Back Tesla” campaign have rallied investors to oppose the proposed performance award. On the other hand, other large investors such as ARK Invest and the State Board of Administration of Florida (SBA) have urged shareholders to approve the compensation plan. 

Interestingly enough, this is not the first time that Musk and NBIM have found themselves on opposing sides. Last year, NBIM voted against reinstating Musk’s 2018 performance award, which had already been fully accomplished but was rescinded by a Delaware judge.

Later reports shared text messages between Musk and NBIM Chief Executive Nicolai Tangen, who was inviting the CEO to a dinner in Oslo. Musk declined the invitation, writing, “When I ask you for a favor, which I very rarely do, and you decline, then you should not ask me for one until you’ve done something to make amends. Friends are as friends do.”

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Investor's Corner

Michael Dell points out practical advantage of Elon Musk’s proposed pay package

As pointed out by the Dell Technologies CEO, Musk will only be rewarded if he delivers extraordinary value to shareholders

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Michael Dell points out practical advantage of Elon Musk’s proposed pay package

Michael Dell has weighed in on Elon Musk’s controversial 2025 CEO Performance Award, offering a grounded perspective amidst the noise surrounding the pay package today.

As pointed out by the Dell Technologies CEO, Musk will only be rewarded if he delivers extraordinary value to shareholders. Musk would quite literally receive no compensation if he fails to achieve his targets.

Dell emphasizes results over rhetoric

Dell shared his thoughts about Musk’s 2025 CEO Performance Award in a post on X.“Vote FOR Elon Musk. The award is only achieved IF he hits exceptionally ambitious market-cap and operational milestones—if he falls short, he gets nothing,” Dell wrote in his post. 

“If he succeeds, shareholders will win big through unprecedented value creation, and he will earn added voting rights to continue driving Tesla’s long-term vision.”

Musk replied with a short “Thanks Michael,” acknowledging Dell’s support. Dell’s framing cuts through the debate surrounding Musk’s compensation, as he simply focused on the incentive structure’s risk-reward balance.

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Musk’s ambitious pay package

Elon Musk’s 2025 CEO Performance Award requires Tesla’s market capitalization to rise from roughly $1.1 trillion today to $8.5 trillion within a decade. This would make Tesla more valuable than any company in history.

Apart from this, Tesla’s operating profit must also grow from $17 billion to $400 billion annually. Musk must also lead the company to several product-related milestones, such as 20 million cumulative vehicle deliveries, 10 million Full Self-Driving subscriptions, 1 million Tesla Bots, and 1 million operating Robotaxis.

So far, proxy advisors Glass Lewis and ISS have urged shareholders to vote against the plan. Some prominent investors, including ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood, however, have voiced strong support for the plan. Wood called Musk “the most productive human being on earth,” arguing that his vision and ability to attract talent are central to Tesla’s success.

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