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Early Model S Drive Units to Fail by 60k mi, Data Suggests

A survey by Plug In America finds a high drive unit failure rate for 2012 and 2013 Model S cars. It finds that two thirds are likely to fail before 60,000 miles

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Weibull analysis of Tesla drive units

Plug In America has completed a survey of owners of 2012 and 2013 Model S cars. A Weibull analysis of the data finds that two thirds of the drive units in those early cars are expected to fail by the time they accumulate 60,000 miles of driving according to Green Car Reports.

The survey collected data from 327 owners and asked each if their drive unit had been replaced and at what mileage. Green Car Reports reporter Matthew Klippenstein found some transcription errors in Plug In America’s raw data. He corrected them and then redid the reliability analysis using Reliasof. The results are slightly more favorable to Tesla and are plotted on the graph below.

Weibull analysis of Tesla drive units

Only 43 owners of 2014 and 2105 cars responded to the Plug In America survey and the amount of miles on those cars was well below the threshold for drive unit replacements, so no analysis of that information was performed.

Elon Musk said recently that the company has added automatic grease injection to counteract premature wear issues in the newer drive units, but its impact on reliability won’t be known until later.

Green Car Reports contacted Tesla, requesting answers to these specific questions:

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  • How many motors has Tesla repaired or replaced in 2012 and 2013 Model S cars to date?
  • What percentage of total cars does that represent?
  • What does the company’s own reliability data indicate about the percentage of cars that will require motor replacements over the life of the vehicles?
  • Musk said in November that reliability had doubled; how confident is Tesla that it has now fully resolved the reliability issues with earlier motors?
  • What is the company’s projection for failure rate in the motor(s) of current production cars?
  • What would Tesla Motors say to owners (and future used-car buyers) of the early cars regarding the reliability of the motors?

Tesla declined to answer the questions, preferring to rely on a general answer to cover them all. “Close communication with our customers enables Tesla to receive input, proactively address issues, and quickly fix problems. Over-the-air software updates allow Tesla to diagnose and fix most bugs without the need to come in for service. In instances when hardware needs to be fixed, we strive to make it painless.”

The company is reacting positively to reliability issues as they occur. Indeed, Tesla owners report they are very satisfied with their factory service experience. The 8 year Infinite Mile warranty on drive units and batteries means that few owners have suffered out of pocket expense to repair a malfunctioning drive unit.

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Tesla one-ups Waymo once again with latest Robotaxi expansion in Austin

Tesla’s new Robotaxi geofence measures roughly 171 square miles of Austin’s downtown and suburbs. This is more than double the size of Waymo’s geofence, which measures 90 square miles.

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Credit: @BLKMDL3 | X

Tesla’s expansion of the Robotaxi geofence on Tuesday morning was a one-up on Waymo once again, as the automaker’s service area growth helps eclipse its rival in an intense back-and-forth.

A lot of conversation has been made about Tesla’s rivalry with Waymo in terms of the capabilities of its driverless ride-sharing service in Austin, Texas.

The two companies have sparred with one another, answering each other’s expansion, and continuing to compete, all to the benefit of consumers in the region.

Tesla expanded the geofence of Robotaxi once again this morning, and it is another growth that catapults it past Waymo’s service area in Austin — this time by a considerable margin.

Tesla’s new Robotaxi geofence measures roughly 171 square miles of Austin’s downtown and suburbs. This is more than double the size of Waymo’s geofence, which measures 90 square miles.

On July 14, Tesla officially overtook Waymo in terms of service area in Austin. But just a few days later, Waymo had responded with a bold statement, expanding from 37 square miles to 90 square miles.

Sarfraz Maredia, Global Head of Autonomous Mobility & Delivery at Uber, said the move “unlock[ed] another key milestone in Austin as our operating territory with Waymo expands from 37 to 90 square miles, which means that even more riders can experience Waymo’s fully autonomous vehicles through the Uber app.”

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Tesla did not respond immediately, but it took its time with validation vehicle testing in the Austin suburbs, as we reported yesterday:

Tesla looks to expand Robotaxi geofence once again with testing in new area

Today’s expansion is perhaps the biggest step Tesla has taken in its efforts to continue to grow its Robotaxi platform. This is not only because the company has significantly expanded the size of the geofence, but also because it has ventured into suburban areas and even included Gigafactory Texas in its service area.

Waymo could come up with another timely response as it did when Tesla expanded in late July. We’ll wait to see what it comes up with, as this awesome competition between the two companies is accelerating innovation.

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Tesla Robotaxi geofence expansion enters Plaid Mode and includes a surprise

Now, on August 26, the Robotaxi geofence has expanded once again, and is estimated to be about 130 square miles.

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Tesla has expanded its Robotaxi geofence in Austin for the third time since its launch in late June, and the company added a big surprise with this new service area.

After launching on June 22, Tesla’s driverless Robotaxi service has been expanded three times. Its initial launch was about 20 square miles in size. The first expansion occurred on July 14 and was roughly 42 miles large, more than double the initial geofence size.

The second expansion occurred on August 3 and brought the total service area to roughly 80 square miles.

Now, on August 26, the Robotaxi geofence has expanded once again, and is estimated to be about 170 square miles.

The expansion of the Robotaxi geofence seemed to show the company’s focus on getting the service to the areas East and West of downtown was an utmost priority.

We reported on the Bee Cave region of the Austin suburbs being a place where Robotaxi validation vehicles were spotted testing in recent days.

Bee Cave is included in the new geofence.

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However, that is not the biggest addition to the geofence, and it’s not even close. Tesla added a major area to the new geofence, one that fans of the company will absolutely love: Tesla Gigafactory Texas.

The big question that remains is whether Tesla is expanding the size of its fleet of Robotaxi vehicles in Austin. There have been many questions about the expansions of the fleet and not necessarily the geofence, and while the latter is certainly considered progress, Tesla will need to enable more Robotaxi into the vehicle population to handle the additional rides.

Tesla has been planning to do so, but is still prioritizing safety and does not want to rush any part of the Robotaxi process.

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Tesla is also looking to expand to new cities altogether. It is currently moving toward a Robotaxi launch in Florida, Arizona, and Nevada, and has also opened up job postings for Robotaxi operators in New York.

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Elon Musk

Elon Musk reiterates his most optimistic prediction yet with “UHI” forecast

Despite his polarizing nature, Elon Musk is, at his core, an optimist.

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Joel Kowsky, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

Despite his polarizing nature, Elon Musk is, at his core, an optimist. If he were not one, he would never have founded Tesla or SpaceX, or pursued projects such as Neuralink or xAI.

Musk’s optimism was on full display on social media platform X recently, when he shared what could very well be his most optimistic prediction yet.

Robots and humans

The Tesla CEO recently responded to a post from David Scott Patterson, who estimated that all jobs will be replaced by AI and robots easily by 2030. In his post, Patterson noted that if robots are sold at the same rate as vehicles, it could result in an output of 320 million robots per year. 

Musk responded that eventually, intelligent humanoid robots will far exceed the population of humans, and “there will be many robots in industry for every human to provide products & services.” 

Musk is already taking steps to achieve such a future. Tesla’s Optimus humanoid robot is expected to see its first “legion” produced this 2025. During an All-Hands meeting earlier this year, Musk also hinted to Tesla employees that the company will try to produce about 50,000 Optimus robots next year. 

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Universal High Income (UHI)

Musk has shared similar sentiments in the past, so it was no surprise that some X users asked the CEO how humans could sustain their lives when robots replace working individuals. To this, Musk responded that a Universal High Income (UHI) would be implemented, which should provide people with the best medical care, food, and transport available.

“There will be universal high income (not merely basic income). Everyone will have the best medical care, food, home, transport and everything else. Sustainable abundance,” Musk wrote in his post

Musk’s comment about sustainable abundance seems to be a prevalent theme in his recent optimistic comments. During Tesla’s second quarter earnings call, for example, Musk hinted that his Master Plan Part Four will describe a path towards sustainable abundance in a post-autonomy world.

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