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Effects of Winter on Tesla Battery Range and Regen
Winter conditions has begun to set in here in New England with temperatures not exceeding the 20’s. Thankfully I’ve already prepared my winter wheels and tires in advance so I’m not overly worried about the potential for snow, however I’m quickly learning the effects of winter on the battery and overall energy efficiency.
Cabin Temperature
Preheating the cabin temperature through the mobile Tesla Motors app.
The first order of business is making sure I’m comfortable when I get into the car each day. This means preheating the Model S cabin temperature through the Tesla App (if I happen to remember to) or, better yet, have it scheduled to automatically preheat via the VisibleTesla app.
My daily schedule looks something like this: VisibleTesla preheats the car 30 minutes before I enter and while it’s still plugged in from my overnight charge. This ensures I enter a warm car every morning with no affect on my range – the best of both worlds!
Leaving for work at the end of the day, however, is a bit more erratic so I usually use the Tesla App to preheat on an ad-hoc basis. I realize that this preheating will eat into my overall battery range, but I’m not overly concerned because I have plenty of range to spare even with a 100 mile commute each day. It’s well worth it for a little more comfort.
I enjoy turning on the air conditioner during the summer months but getting into a warm car in the dead of winter is even better!
Limited Regenerative Braking
Prior to the winter, the only times I have experienced limited regenerative braking (regen) was directly after performing range charges in anticipations of my Tesla road trip adventures. The Tesla battery does not have the capacity to receive additional energy (when at a 100% state of charge) thus it disables regenerative braking all together.
Winter months, however, bring a completely different experience with regen. When the Model S is cold it limits the ability to regen since the batteries need to be at an optimal temperature before it receives any additional charge.
A dashed yellow line appears on the center display indicating that regenerative braking is limited. If you’ve been accustomed to driving with regen on, this new behaviour (with regen disabled) will feel and drive very differently.
I found myself quickly rolling towards the cars in front of me as I instinctively ignored the brakes and assumed that the car would just come to a gradual stop by letting go of the accelerator pedal. That obviously didn’t happen with regen limited. You’ll need to use your brakes so be careful not to “over press” it as you quickly adjust to driving with brakes again.
This winter-induced form of limited regeneration lasts for a very long. I wasn’t sure if the lack of regen was isolated to the weather conditions for that particular day so I decided to log my results over a larger sample of several days.
Here’s what I noticed about the effects of winter on Tesla’s regenerative braking:
- There appears to be a linear easing off of the “regen cap” through the first 30 minutes. At 0 miles, when the car is just started, the amount of regen is capped at 20 kW.
- 25 minutes into my drive, the regen cap is loosened to 40 kW.
Graph depicting the amount of energy that can be regained through regen over time.
As you can see from some of my data points, it took me over 45 minutes of driving (30 miles covered) before the regenerative braking behavior was back to normal — that’s almost my entire drive home!
I’ve been experimenting with various approaches to avoid the regen capping. One of which is timing my overnight charge so that it completes right at the time I’m about to leave for work. This ensures that the batteries are at a good temperature, by the time I begin driving, and with no regen cap in place. Timing it perfectly can be tricky.There’s been a few occasions where my charge completed earlier than expected and as a result the batteries cooled off before I got to drive.Here again VisibleTesla can help, but it’s an area that I wish Tesla would address directly —
add a feature to allow users to specify the END time for a charge as opposed to the start time. The Model S should calculate when charging begins based on the set end time.
I’ve been experimenting with ways to reduce the after-work limited regenerative braking occurrences but since there’s no charging infrastructure at my work, I can’t pre-warm the batteries. I’ve even tried warming up the cabin temperature in advance to see if this would have an impact on regenerative braking but unfortunately it doesn’t.
Higher Energy Use
Cold weather definitely affects energy use on the Model S. My tires, while great for winter, are less efficient — they’re not the low rolling resistance tires that came with the Model S. I’m also using extra energy for warming the cabin (despite my chilly 66 F year-round cabin temperature setting). The Model S is also using extra power when managing the battery temperature.
Prior to winter my average energy consumption was around 300-315 kWh/mi but now I’m averaging 350-365 kWh/mi or approximately 16% more energy used than summer months. I’m also using my brakes more during the winter, as a result of the limited regenerative braking, so that will also introduce more wear and tear.
One piece of advice from Tesla is to use seat heaters to warm yourself up over cabin heat. The seat heaters apply heat directly to your body and thus a more efficient use of energy. If you have your cabin temperature set at 72 F , try reducing it to 68 F and use your seat heaters to warm yourself up.
I’m sure I’ll be uncovering a lot more tips and interesting findings over the next few months especially as the snow storms start blowing in and temperatures dip into single digits! Stay tuned!
Elon Musk
Tesla CEO Elon Musk drops massive bomb about Cybercab
“And there is so much to this car that is not obvious on the surface,” Musk said.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk dropped a massive bomb about the Cybercab, which is the company’s fully autonomous ride-hailing vehicle that will enter production later this year.
The Cybercab was unveiled back in October 2024 at the company’s “We, Robot” event in Los Angeles, and is among the major catalysts for the company’s growth in the coming years. It is expected to push Tesla into a major growth phase, especially as the automaker is transitioning into more of an AI and Robotics company than anything else.
The Cybercab will enable completely autonomous ride-hailing for Tesla, and although its other vehicles will also be capable of this technology, the Cybercab is slightly different. It will have no steering wheel or pedals, and will allow two occupants to travel from Point A to Point B with zero responsibilities within the car.
Tesla shares epic 2025 recap video, confirms start of Cybercab production
Details on the Cybercab are pretty face value at this point: we know Tesla is enabling 1-2 passengers to ride in it at a time, and this strategy was based on statistics that show most ride-hailing trips have no more than two occupants. It will also have in-vehicle entertainment options accessible from the center touchscreen.
It will also have wireless charging capabilities, which were displayed at “We, Robot,” and there could be more features that will be highly beneficial to riders, offering a full-fledged autonomous experience.
Musk dropped a big hint that there is much more to the Cybercab than what we know, as a post on X said that “there is so much to this car that is not obvious on the surface.”
And there is so much to this car that is not obvious on the surface
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 2, 2026
As the Cybercab is expected to enter production later this year, Tesla is surely going to include a handful of things they have not yet revealed to the public.
Musk seems to be indicating that some of the features will make it even more groundbreaking, and the idea is to enable a truly autonomous experience from start to finish for riders. Everything from climate control to emergency systems, and more, should be included with the car.
It seems more likely than not that Tesla will make the Cybercab its smartest vehicle so far, as if its current lineup is not already extremely intelligent, user-friendly, and intuitive.
Investor's Corner
Tesla Q4 delivery numbers are better than they initially look: analyst
The Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner shared his thoughts in a post on his website.
Longtime Tesla analyst and Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner Gene Munster has shared his insights on Tesla’s Q4 2025 deliveries. As per the analyst, Tesla’s numbers are actually better than they first appear.
Munster shared his thoughts in a post on his website.
Normalized December Deliveries
Munster noted that Tesla delivered 418k vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2025, slightly below Street expectations of 420k but above the whisper number of 415k. Tesla’s reported 16% year-over-year decline, compared to +7% in September, is largely distorted by the timing of the tax credit expiration, which pulled forward demand.
“Taking a step back, we believe September deliveries pulled forward approximately 55k units that would have otherwise occurred in December or March. For simplicity, we assume the entire pull-forward impacted the December quarter. Under this assumption, September growth would have been down ~5% absent the 55k pull-forward, a Deepwater estimate tied to the credit’s expiration.
“For December deliveries to have declined ~5% year over year would imply total deliveries of roughly 470k. Subtracting the 55k units pulled into September results in an implied December delivery figure of approximately 415k. The reported 418k suggests that, when normalizing for the tax credit timing, quarter-over-quarter growth has been consistently down ~5%. Importantly, this ~5% decline represents an improvement from the ~13% declines seen in both the March and June 2025 quarters.“
Tesla’s United States market share
Munster also estimated that Q4 as a whole might very well show a notable improvement in Tesla’s market share in the United States.
“Over the past couple of years, based on data from Cox Automotive, Tesla has been losing U.S. EV market share, declining to just under 50%. Based on data for October and November, Cox estimates that total U.S. EV sales were down approximately 35%, compared to Tesla’s just reported down 16% for the full quarter. For the first two months of the quarter, Cox reported Tesla market share of roughly a 65% share, up from under 50% in the September quarter.
“While this data excludes December, the quarter as a whole is likely to show a material improvement in Tesla’s U.S. EV market share.“
Elon Musk
Tesla analyst breaks down delivery report: ‘A step in the right direction’
“This will be viewed as better than feared deliveries and a step in the right direction for the Tesla story heading into 2026,” Ives wrote.
Tesla analyst Dan Ives of Wedbush released a new note on Friday morning just after the company released production and delivery figures for Q4 and the full year of 2025, stating that the numbers, while slightly underwhelming, are “better than feared” and as “a step in the right direction.”
Tesla reported production of 434,358 and deliveries of 418,227 for the fourth quarter, while 1,654,667 vehicles were produced and 1,636,129 cars were delivered for the full year.
Tesla releases Q4 and FY 2025 vehicle delivery and production report
Interestingly, the company posted its own consensus figures that were compiled from various firms on its website a few days ago, where expectations were set at 1,640,752 cars for the year. Tesla fell about 4,000 units short of that. One of the areas where Tesla excelled was energy deployments, which totaled 46.7 GWh for the year.
🚨 Wedbush’s Dan Ives has released a new note on Tesla $TSLA:
“Tesla announced its FY4Q25 delivery numbers this morning coming in at 418.2k vehicles slightly below the company’s consensus delivery estimate of 422.9k but much better than the whisper numbers of ~410k as the…
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) January 2, 2026
In terms of vehicle deliveries, Ives writes that Tesla certainly has some things to work through if it wants to return to growth in that aspect, especially with the loss of the $7,500 tax credit in the U.S. and “continuous headwinds” for the company in Europe.
However, Ives also believes that, given the delivery numbers, which were on par with expectations, Tesla is positioned well for a strong 2026, especially with its AI focus, Robotaxi and Cybercab development, and energy:
“This will be viewed as better than feared deliveries and a step in the right direction for the Tesla story heading into 2026. We look forward to hearing more at the company’s 4Q25 call on January 28th. AI Valuation – The Focus Throughout 2026. We believe Tesla could reach a $2 trillion market cap over the coming year and, in a bull case scenario, $3 trillion by the end of 2026…as full-scale volume production begins with the autonomous and robotics roadmap…The company has started to test the all-important Cybercab in Austin over the past few weeks, which is an incremental step towards launching in 2026 with important volume production of Cybercabs starting in April/May, which remains the golden goose in unlocking TSLA’s AI valuation.”
It’s no secret that for the past several years, Tesla’s vehicle delivery numbers have been the main focus of investors and analysts have looked at them as an indicator of company health to a certain extent. The problem with that narrative in 2025 and 2026 is that Tesla is now focusing more on the deployment of Full Self-Driving, its Optimus project, AI development, and Cybercab.
While vehicle deliveries still hold importance, it is more crucial to note that Tesla’s overall environment as a business relies on much more than just how many cars are purchased. That metric, to a certain extent, is fading in importance in the grand scheme of things, but it will never totally disappear.
Ives and Wedbush maintained their $600 price target and an ‘Outperform’ rating on the stock.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk drops massive bomb about Cybercab
Tesla Q4 delivery numbers are better than they initially look: analyst
