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SpaceX’s 100-launch target is more realistic than it seems

(Richard Angle)

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SpaceX is less than a month into 2023, but CEO Elon Musk’s wildly ambitious goal of 100 launches in one year is already looking doable.

Announced last August, Musk’s 100-launch 2023 target followed goals of 52and then 60 – Falcon rocket launches in 2022. Both 2022 goals were incredibly ambitious, with 60 requiring SpaceX to almost double its previous annual launch record. But for the first time in its history, SpaceX not only met – but exceeded – its executives’ forecasts. The company launched 61 times in 2022, tying a four-decade-old Soviet record for the most launches of a single family of rockets in one year. Anywhere close to 100 Falcon launches in 2023 would crush that record.

Prior to 2022, however, SpaceX infamously struggled to hit the high bars set by its ever-optimistic executives.

SpaceX’s next launch will be its 14th in two months – an average of 84 launches per year if the company can sustain it. (Richard Angle)

High achievements; higher bars

In September 2017, Musk predicted [PDF] that SpaceX would launch 20 times in 2017 and 30 times in 2018. SpaceX eventually launched 18 times in 2017 and 21 times in 2018. In September 2019, COO Gwynne Shotwell predicted that SpaceX would launch up to 18 times by the end of the year. The company would only launch 13 Falcon rockets in 2019 – the only time in the last 12 years that SpaceX’s launch cadence has dropped year-over-year.

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At the same conference, Shotwell – typically viewed as the adult in the room relative to Musk’s more chaotic management style – also estimated that SpaceX would launch up to 24 Starlink missions in 2020. SpaceX went on to launch 26 times total in 2020, 15 of which were for Starlink. Finally, in October 2020, CEO Elon Musk revealed a target of 48 SpaceX launches in 2021. Instead, SpaceX launched 31 Falcon rockets – an impressive accomplishment by any measure but still far from its internal target.

Only in 2022 did all of the puzzle pieces finally click together. Representing the payoff from years of buildup, SpaceX doubled the production of Falcon rocket stages and Starlink satellites, dramatically increased the availability of its drone ships and launch pads, and launched once every six days without a single failure.

(6)0 to 100

Ever the glutton for self-punishment, Musk responded to SpaceX’s success by raising 2023’s bar two-thirds higher than 2022’s in August. Instead of jinxing the company, SpaceX somehow sustained its high cadence through the end of the year and slightly surpassed Musk’s 60-launch goal.

In fact, the pace of SpaceX launches accelerated throughout 2022. SpaceX launched 13 times in the first quarter of 2022. In the fourth quarter of 2022, SpaceX launched 18 times – an increase of almost 40%. The same trend is visible on a smaller scale. In December 2021, SpaceX launched five times in one month for the first time in its history. SpaceX launched seven times (also a first) in December 2022.

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One exceptional month does not necessarily translate into an exceptional year. However, SpaceX is on track to launch seven times in January 2023, implying that it could be the company’s new normal. When SpaceX first launched five times in one month in December 2021, it seemed unlikely that that would become its new normal. But SpaceX ultimately averaged more than five launches per month throughout 2022.

Time will tell if SpaceX can do the seemingly impossible twice in a row. For now, the company is off to a great start.

Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Tesla Full Self-Driving shows stunning maneuver in Europe to silence skeptics

In a striking demonstration of autonomous driving prowess, Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) system recently showcased its capabilities on the narrow rural roads of the Netherlands. Captured in two in-car videos, the system encountered scenarios that would challenge even the most experienced human drivers.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla Full Self-Driving, fresh on the heels of its approval for operation on European roads for the first time, showed off a stunning maneuver that will certainly silence any skeptics on the continent.

Fresh off its approval in the Netherlands, Full Self-Driving is working toward a significant expansion into more parts of Europe.

In a striking demonstration of autonomous driving prowess, Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) system recently showcased its capabilities on the narrow rural roads of the Netherlands. Captured in two in-car videos, the system encountered scenarios that would challenge even the most experienced human drivers.

In the first clip, a wide tractor occupied more than half the lane on a tight two-way road. Rather than braking abruptly or forcing a collision risk, FSD smoothly edged the vehicle onto the adjacent bike path—using the extra space with precision—before seamlessly returning to the lane once clear.

The second clip was equally demanding: while overtaking a group of cyclists, an oncoming car approached at speed.

FSD maintained a safe, minimal buffer to the cyclists while timing the pass perfectly, avoiding any swerve or hesitation that could unsettle passengers or other road users.

This maneuver highlights FSD’s advanced spatial reasoning and predictive planning. On roads often under three meters wide, with no room for error, the system calculated available clearance in real time, incorporated shoulder and path geometry, and executed a controlled deviation without compromising safety.

It treated the bike path as a legitimate extension of navigable space, something many drivers might hesitate to do, while respecting Dutch road norms and cyclist priority.

Such feats align closely with a growing library of impressive FSD maneuvers documented on camera worldwide.

In urban Amsterdam, for instance, FSD has navigated the world’s densest cyclist environments, weaving through hundreds of unpredictable bike movements on canal-side streets with tram tracks and pedestrians.

One uncut drive showed it yielding smoothly at crossings, overtaking where needed, and even handling a near-perfect auto-park in a tight residential spot, demonstrating the same low-speed precision seen in the rural clips.

Teslas using FSD have tackled turbo roundabouts in the Netherlands, complex multi-lane circles notorious for geometry challenges, merging confidently while yielding to traffic. Similar clips depict smooth handling of construction zones, emergency vehicle pull-overs, and gated parking barriers, where the car stops precisely, waits for clearance, and proceeds without driver input.

Collectively, these examples illustrate FSD’s evolution toward handling the unpredictable.

The rural Netherlands maneuvers aren’t isolated. Instead, they reflect a pattern of spatial awareness, cyclist deference, and traffic anticipation seen from city streets to highways.

As FSD continues refining through real-world data, videos like this one are certainly building a compelling case for its readiness on Europe’s varied roads.

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Tesla utilizes its ‘Rave Cave’ for new awesome safety feature

Part of the massive interior overhaul of both the Model 3 “Highland” and Model Y “Juniper” was the addition of interior accent lighting to help bring out the mood of the vehicle, increase the customization of the interior, and to create a unique listening experience.

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Credit: Tesla | X

Tesla is utilizing its ‘Rave Cave’ for an awesome new safety feature that will arrive with the upcoming Spring Update for 2026.

Part of the massive interior overhaul of both the Model 3 “Highland” and Model Y “Juniper” was the addition of interior accent lighting to help bring out the mood of the vehicle, increase the customization of the interior, and to create a unique listening experience.

Tesla added a Sync Lights feature that will strobe the accent strips with the beat of the music.

It is one of the most unique and one of the coolest non-functional features of a Tesla, as it does not improve the driving of the vehicle, but makes it a cool and personal addition to the interior.

However, Tesla is going to take it one step further, as the Rave Cave lights will now be used for blind spot recognition. This feature will be added as the Spring 2026 Update starts to roll out.

Tesla writes:

“Accent lights now turn red when an object is in your blind spot and your turn signal is engaged, or when an approaching object is detected while parked.”

This neat new safety feature will now increase the likelihood of a driver, who is operating their Tesla manually, of seeing the blind spot warnings that are currently available on the A pillar and on the center touchscreen.

These new alerts will now warn drivers of cross traffic as they back out of a parking space with little to no visibility of what is coming. It is a great new addition that will only increase the safety of the vehicles, while also utilizing something that is already installed in these specific Model 3 and Model Y units.

The Model 3 and Model Y were the central focus of the Spring 2026 Update, especially considering the fact that the Model S and Model X are basically gone, with only a few hundred units left. Additionally, Tesla included new Immersive Sound and Car Visualization for the Model 3 and Model Y specifically in this new update.

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Tesla parked 50+ Cybercabs outside its Texas Factory with some crash tested

Dozens of Tesla Cybercabs have been spotted at Giga Texas crash testing facility ahead of launch.

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Tesla Cybercab fleet spotted at Gigafactory Texas [Credit: Joe Tegtmeyer)
Tesla Cybercab fleet spotted at Gigafactory Texas on April 13, 2026 [Credit: Joe Tegtmeyer)

Drone footage captured by longtime Giga Texas observer Joe Tegtmeyer shows over 50 units of Tesla Cybercab at the Austin factory campus, including several units clustered by Tesla’s on-site crash testing facility.

The outbound lot at Gigafactory Texas sits just outside the factory exit and serves as the primary staging area where finished vehicles are held before being loaded onto transport carriers or dispatched for validation testing. On any given day, the lot holds a mix of Model Y and Cybertruck units alongside the growing Tesla Cybercab fleet, as can be seen in the drone footage captured by Joe Tegtmeyer.

Tesla Cybercab fleet spotted at Gigafactory Texas [Credit: Joe Tegtmeyer)

Tesla Cybercab fleet spotted at Gigafactory Texas on April 13, 2026 [Credit: Joe Tegtmeyer)

Roughly 50 Cybercab units are visible across the campus, parked in tight organized rows. Most of the units visible still carry steering wheels and pedals, temporary additions Tesla included to satisfy current safety regulations while the vehicles accumulate real-world data ahead of full regulatory approval for a steering wheel-free design.

Tesla Cybercab fleet spotted at Gigafactory Texas [Credit: Joe Tegtmeyer)

Tesla Cybercab fleet spotted at Gigafactory Texas [Credit: Joe Tegtmeyer)

Tesla operates dedicated Crash Labs at both its Giga Texas and Fremont facilities that are purpose-built for controlled structural crash tests. Historically, automakers begin intensive crash testing roughly one to two months before volume production kicks off. The Cybertruck followed almost exactly that pattern. The Cybercab appears to be on the same track facility that we first saw back in October 2025.

Tesla Cybercab crash test units spotted at Gigafactory Texas [Credit: Joe Tegtmeyer)

Tesla Cybercab crash test units spotted at Gigafactory Texas [Credit: Joe Tegtmeyer)

The first production Cybercab rolled off the Giga Texas line on February 17, 2026. Volume production is now targeted for April. Musk previously wrote on X that “the early production rate will be agonizingly slow, but eventually end up being insanely fast,” and separately stated Tesla is targeting at least 2 million Cybercab units per year. Commercial robotaxi service in Austin is targeted for late 2026.

 

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