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SpaceX’s 100-launch target is more realistic than it seems

(Richard Angle)

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SpaceX is less than a month into 2023, but CEO Elon Musk’s wildly ambitious goal of 100 launches in one year is already looking doable.

Announced last August, Musk’s 100-launch 2023 target followed goals of 52and then 60 – Falcon rocket launches in 2022. Both 2022 goals were incredibly ambitious, with 60 requiring SpaceX to almost double its previous annual launch record. But for the first time in its history, SpaceX not only met – but exceeded – its executives’ forecasts. The company launched 61 times in 2022, tying a four-decade-old Soviet record for the most launches of a single family of rockets in one year. Anywhere close to 100 Falcon launches in 2023 would crush that record.

Prior to 2022, however, SpaceX infamously struggled to hit the high bars set by its ever-optimistic executives.

SpaceX’s next launch will be its 14th in two months – an average of 84 launches per year if the company can sustain it. (Richard Angle)

High achievements; higher bars

In September 2017, Musk predicted [PDF] that SpaceX would launch 20 times in 2017 and 30 times in 2018. SpaceX eventually launched 18 times in 2017 and 21 times in 2018. In September 2019, COO Gwynne Shotwell predicted that SpaceX would launch up to 18 times by the end of the year. The company would only launch 13 Falcon rockets in 2019 – the only time in the last 12 years that SpaceX’s launch cadence has dropped year-over-year.

At the same conference, Shotwell – typically viewed as the adult in the room relative to Musk’s more chaotic management style – also estimated that SpaceX would launch up to 24 Starlink missions in 2020. SpaceX went on to launch 26 times total in 2020, 15 of which were for Starlink. Finally, in October 2020, CEO Elon Musk revealed a target of 48 SpaceX launches in 2021. Instead, SpaceX launched 31 Falcon rockets – an impressive accomplishment by any measure but still far from its internal target.

Only in 2022 did all of the puzzle pieces finally click together. Representing the payoff from years of buildup, SpaceX doubled the production of Falcon rocket stages and Starlink satellites, dramatically increased the availability of its drone ships and launch pads, and launched once every six days without a single failure.

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(6)0 to 100

Ever the glutton for self-punishment, Musk responded to SpaceX’s success by raising 2023’s bar two-thirds higher than 2022’s in August. Instead of jinxing the company, SpaceX somehow sustained its high cadence through the end of the year and slightly surpassed Musk’s 60-launch goal.

In fact, the pace of SpaceX launches accelerated throughout 2022. SpaceX launched 13 times in the first quarter of 2022. In the fourth quarter of 2022, SpaceX launched 18 times – an increase of almost 40%. The same trend is visible on a smaller scale. In December 2021, SpaceX launched five times in one month for the first time in its history. SpaceX launched seven times (also a first) in December 2022.

One exceptional month does not necessarily translate into an exceptional year. However, SpaceX is on track to launch seven times in January 2023, implying that it could be the company’s new normal. When SpaceX first launched five times in one month in December 2021, it seemed unlikely that that would become its new normal. But SpaceX ultimately averaged more than five launches per month throughout 2022.

Time will tell if SpaceX can do the seemingly impossible twice in a row. For now, the company is off to a great start.

Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Elon Musk hints at Tesla Cybercab’s next market

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(Credit: Teslarati)

After launching in Austin, Texas, last week, Tesla is looking to expand the Cybercab to new parts of the United States in an effort that will see the driverless, steering wheel-less, and pedal-less vehicle chauffeur people around as part of the Robotaxi ride-hailing service.

However, the expansion will go far beyond the United States, and CEO Elon Musk revealed he hopes Europe will be the next market where Cybercab will be operational.

Musk has publicly expressed hope that Tesla’s Cybercab robotaxi will reach Europe in the near future.

On September 8, Tesla’s Chief Executive quoted a German rider who had just completed a trip in Austin, Texas, and wrote that he hoped the vehicle would not take years to arrive in Germany. Musk replied with a short but notable message: “Hopefully soon in Europe too.”

The comment arrived only days after Tesla opened Cybercab ride-hailing to the public in Austin. The two-seat vehicle has no steering wheel or pedals and relies entirely on Tesla’s Full Self-Driving software. Early passengers have described the rides as quiet, smooth, and more stylish than competing robotaxis such as Waymo.

Austin is currently the only city where members of the public can hail a Cybercab through Tesla’s Robotaxi app. The initial fleet is small; Texas registration records show only a few dozen of the purpose-built vehicles on the road.

Tesla set to open Cybercab rides to the public, with no steering wheel or pedals

Tesla has also been operating a larger number of conventional Model Y robotaxis in the same area, but the Cybercab itself represents the company’s first dedicated, controls-free taxi design.

Europe presents a different regulatory picture. The European Union does not permit manufacturers to self-certify vehicles the way Tesla did in the United States.

Type-approval rules and a small-series limit of 1,500 automated vehicles per type per year apply across the bloc.

Supervised Full Self-Driving has gained provisional approval in several member states through national recognition of Dutch certification, yet unsupervised robotaxi operation remains a separate and more distant step. Tesla has not announced a European launch city, date, or approval pathway for the Cybercab.

Musk himself has previously cautioned that the company does not control European regulators. In an earnings call earlier in 2026, he noted that even supervised FSD took an “immense amount of time” to clear and that unsupervised service would be “somewhat at the mercy of the governments in Europe and the EU.”

The latest social-media remark therefore functions more as an expression of intent than a timetable.

If the Cybercab eventually reaches European streets, it would mark a significant expansion of Tesla’s robotaxi ambitions beyond the United States. For now, the vehicle remains an Austin-only experience, and the gap between Musk’s hope and actual deployment will be decided by regulators rather than by engineering alone.

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Tesla Cybercab improvements are already on the minds of company engineers

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Credit: Tesla Europe & Middle East | X

Tesla Cybercab might have just rolled out to the public as it entered the company’s Robotaxi suite in Austin this past week. However, the vehicle might already be on its way to becoming even better, as the company is asking riders to describe what they’d like to see improved with the Cybercab.

Tesla sent a rider experience survey to Cybercab passengers only days after paid rides began in Austin. The questionnaire asks how satisfied riders were with the overall trip. Then it requests star ratings for availability and wait time, door functionality, vehicle touchscreen, mobile app experience, seat comfort, interior space, ride comfort, cleanliness, and cargo space.

A later section asks which features riders would most like to have and allows selection of up to three items from a list that includes heated seats, ventilated seats, fully reclining seats, a tray table, a wireless phone charger, a better sound system, and more storage. Respondents may also choose none of these or write in another idea. The survey closes with a recommendation score from zero to ten.

This rapid request for input illustrates Tesla’s habit of treating early users as collaborators rather than mere customers. The company has long refined vehicles through software updates and hardware changes informed by real-world use across its passenger cars.

Collecting structured opinions so soon after commercial service started shows the same mindset applied to a purpose-built autonomous taxi. The questions themselves reveal an openness to cabin changes even after the first vehicles reached public streets, which is no surprise.

Tesla has always hoped to cater a great experience to anyone in its vehicles, which is why so many fan-requested features have made it into its vehicles.

Replies already circulating online favor reclining seats, tray tables, wireless charging, improved audio, and extra room when seats fold back.

Tesla Cybercabs narrowly miss deadly Amazon cargo plane crash

Those preferences point toward comfort upgrades that Tesla can implement in later production batches or through cabin revisions. Because the Cybercab is designed around software first principles, many requested amenities can arrive faster than in traditional automakers.

Tesla’s willingness to survey riders immediately after launch therefore makes near-term cabin and experience improvements likely as the team reviews responses and iterates toward a more refined robotaxi people will choose daily.

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Cybertruck

Tesla Cybertruck engineer reveals new changes in ‘constantly evolving’ pickup

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Credit: Joe Tegtmeyer | YouTube

Tesla Cybertruck Lead Engineer Wes Morrill revealed the company has made several changes to the all-electric pickup, which he calls a “living thing, constantly evolving and improving.”

Cybertruck is manufactured at Tesla’s Gigafactory Texas just outside of Austin, and over the past few years, Tesla has continued to make small changes to the pickup to improve everything from cost, reliability, serviceablility, and manufacturability.

“The finish line isn’t getting to production. A product is a living thing, constantly evolving and improving,” Morrill added.

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Some of those changes are yet to be revealed, but perhaps the most notable one was the change Tesla made to the aero shield that sits underneath the truck. In the past, it was aluminum, but now the Cybertruck is using a self-reinforcing polypropylene.

Morrill said that the polypropylene is “stretched into fibers and then laminated into the form,” and is much more durable, much lighter, and significantly cheaper than aluminum when it is manufactured this way.

It also enabled some improvements in the geometry of the Cybertruck, improving the manufacturing around the bolts and edges, in addition to minor form changes. These all benefitted the Cybertruck in more ways than one: specifically with durability and improved drag.

Typically, Teslas are not necessarily identified by model year because these changes are fluid and occur when the company sees fit to implement them. It is not like other automotive companies, which usually make sweeping manufacturing changes when building a new model year.

Instead, Teslas are recognized by their “generation” or “era.” For example, those with a newer Model Y might refer to their car as a “Juniper.” This is the same with Model 3, as many refer to the new body style as the “Highland.”

Tesla’s manufacturing changes are proof of the company’s constant need to improve its products and move things forward with its vehicles. There is no need to drag one’s feet and wait until next year if the product can be made better right now, and that’s precisely what Tesla did with the Cybertruck.

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