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SpaceX’s 100-launch target is more realistic than it seems

(Richard Angle)

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SpaceX is less than a month into 2023, but CEO Elon Musk’s wildly ambitious goal of 100 launches in one year is already looking doable.

Announced last August, Musk’s 100-launch 2023 target followed goals of 52and then 60 – Falcon rocket launches in 2022. Both 2022 goals were incredibly ambitious, with 60 requiring SpaceX to almost double its previous annual launch record. But for the first time in its history, SpaceX not only met – but exceeded – its executives’ forecasts. The company launched 61 times in 2022, tying a four-decade-old Soviet record for the most launches of a single family of rockets in one year. Anywhere close to 100 Falcon launches in 2023 would crush that record.

Prior to 2022, however, SpaceX infamously struggled to hit the high bars set by its ever-optimistic executives.

SpaceX’s next launch will be its 14th in two months – an average of 84 launches per year if the company can sustain it. (Richard Angle)

High achievements; higher bars

In September 2017, Musk predicted [PDF] that SpaceX would launch 20 times in 2017 and 30 times in 2018. SpaceX eventually launched 18 times in 2017 and 21 times in 2018. In September 2019, COO Gwynne Shotwell predicted that SpaceX would launch up to 18 times by the end of the year. The company would only launch 13 Falcon rockets in 2019 – the only time in the last 12 years that SpaceX’s launch cadence has dropped year-over-year.

At the same conference, Shotwell – typically viewed as the adult in the room relative to Musk’s more chaotic management style – also estimated that SpaceX would launch up to 24 Starlink missions in 2020. SpaceX went on to launch 26 times total in 2020, 15 of which were for Starlink. Finally, in October 2020, CEO Elon Musk revealed a target of 48 SpaceX launches in 2021. Instead, SpaceX launched 31 Falcon rockets – an impressive accomplishment by any measure but still far from its internal target.

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Only in 2022 did all of the puzzle pieces finally click together. Representing the payoff from years of buildup, SpaceX doubled the production of Falcon rocket stages and Starlink satellites, dramatically increased the availability of its drone ships and launch pads, and launched once every six days without a single failure.

(6)0 to 100

Ever the glutton for self-punishment, Musk responded to SpaceX’s success by raising 2023’s bar two-thirds higher than 2022’s in August. Instead of jinxing the company, SpaceX somehow sustained its high cadence through the end of the year and slightly surpassed Musk’s 60-launch goal.

In fact, the pace of SpaceX launches accelerated throughout 2022. SpaceX launched 13 times in the first quarter of 2022. In the fourth quarter of 2022, SpaceX launched 18 times – an increase of almost 40%. The same trend is visible on a smaller scale. In December 2021, SpaceX launched five times in one month for the first time in its history. SpaceX launched seven times (also a first) in December 2022.

One exceptional month does not necessarily translate into an exceptional year. However, SpaceX is on track to launch seven times in January 2023, implying that it could be the company’s new normal. When SpaceX first launched five times in one month in December 2021, it seemed unlikely that that would become its new normal. But SpaceX ultimately averaged more than five launches per month throughout 2022.

Time will tell if SpaceX can do the seemingly impossible twice in a row. For now, the company is off to a great start.

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Elon Musk’s xAI brings 1GW Colossus 2 AI training cluster online

Elon Musk shared his update in a recent post on social media platform X.

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Credit: xAI

xAI has brought its Colossus 2 supercomputer online, making it the first gigawatt-scale AI training cluster in the world, and it’s about to get even bigger in a few months.

Elon Musk shared his update in a recent post on social media platform X.

Colossus 2 goes live

The Colossus 2 supercomputer, together with its predecessor, Colossus 1, are used by xAI to primarily train and refine the company’s Grok large language model. In a post on X, Musk stated that Colossus 2 is already operational, making it the first gigawatt training cluster in the world. 

But what’s even more remarkable is that it would be upgraded to 1.5 GW of power in April. Even in its current iteration, however, the Colossus 2 supercomputer already exceeds the peak demand of San Francisco.  

Commentary from users of the social media platform highlighted the speed of execution behind the project. Colossus 1 went from site preparation to full operation in 122 days, while Colossus 2 went live by crossing the 1-GW barrier and is targeting a total capacity of roughly 2 GW. This far exceeds the speed of xAI’s primary rivals.

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Funding fuels rapid expansion

xAI’s Colossus 2 launch follows xAI’s recently closed, upsized $20 billion Series E funding round, which exceeded its initial $15 billion target. The company said the capital will be used to accelerate infrastructure scaling and AI product development.

The round attracted a broad group of investors, including Valor Equity Partners, Stepstone Group, Fidelity Management & Research Company, Qatar Investment Authority, MGX, and Baron Capital Group. Strategic partners NVIDIA and Cisco also continued their support, helping xAI build what it describes as the world’s largest GPU clusters.

xAI said the funding will accelerate its infrastructure buildout, enable rapid deployment of AI products to billions of users, and support research tied to its mission of understanding the universe. The company noted that its Colossus 1 and 2 systems now represent more than one million H100 GPU equivalents, alongside recent releases including the Grok 4 series, Grok Voice, and Grok Imagine. Training is also already underway for its next flagship model, Grok 5.

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Tesla AI5 chip nears completion, Elon Musk teases 9-month development cadence

The Tesla CEO shared his recent insights in a post on social media platform X.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla’s next-generation AI5 chip is nearly complete, and work on its successor is already underway, as per a recent update from Elon Musk. 

The Tesla CEO shared his recent insights in a post on social media platform X.

Musk details AI chip roadmap

In his post, Elon Musk stated that Tesla’s AI5 chip design is “almost done,” while AI6 has already entered early development. Musk added that Tesla plans to continue iterating rapidly, with AI7, AI8, AI9, and future generations targeting a nine-month design cycle. 

He also noted that Tesla’s in-house chips could become the highest-volume AI processors in the world. Musk framed his update as a recruiting message, encouraging engineers to join Tesla’s AI and chip development teams.

Tesla community member Herbert Ong highlighted the strategic importance of the timeline, noting that faster chip cycles enable quicker learning, faster iteration, and a compounding advantage in AI and autonomy that becomes increasingly difficult for competitors to close.

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AI5 manufacturing takes shape

Musk’s comments align with earlier reporting on AI5’s production plans. In December, it was reported that Samsung is preparing to manufacture Tesla’s AI5 chip, accelerating hiring for experienced engineers to support U.S. production and address complex foundry challenges.

Samsung is one of two suppliers selected for AI5, alongside TSMC. The companies are expected to produce different versions of the AI5 chip, with TSMC reportedly using a 3nm process and Samsung using a 2nm process.

Musk has previously stated that while different foundries translate chip designs into physical silicon in different ways, the goal is for both versions of the Tesla AI5 chip to operate identically. AI5 will succeed Tesla’s current AI4 hardware, formerly known as Hardware 4, and is expected to support the company’s Full Self-Driving system as well as other AI-driven efforts, including Optimus.

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Tesla Model Y and Model 3 named safest vehicles tested by ANCAP in 2025

According to ANCAP in a press release, the Tesla Model Y achieved the highest overall weighted score of any vehicle assessed in 2025.

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Credit: ANCAP

The Tesla Model Y recorded the highest overall safety score of any vehicle tested by ANCAP in 2025. The Tesla Model 3 also delivered strong results, reinforcing the automaker’s safety leadership in Australia and New Zealand.

According to ANCAP in a press release, the Tesla Model Y achieved the highest overall weighted score of any vehicle assessed in 2025. ANCAP’s 2025 tests evaluated vehicles across four key pillars: Adult Occupant Protection, Child Occupant Protection, Vulnerable Road User Protection, and Safety Assist technologies.

The Model Y posted consistently strong results in all four categories, distinguishing itself through a system-based safety approach that combines structural crash protection with advanced driver-assistance features such as autonomous emergency braking, lane support, and driver monitoring. 

This marked the second time the Model Y has topped ANCAP’s annual safety rankings. The Model Y’s previous version was also ANCAP’s top performer in 2022.

The Tesla Model 3 also delivered a strong performance in ANCAP’s 2025 tests, contributing to Tesla’s broader safety presence across segments. Similar to the Model Y, the Model 3 also earned impressive scores across the ANCAP’s four pillars. This made the vehicle the top performer in the Medium Car category.  

ANCAP Chief Executive Officer Carla Hoorweg stated that the results highlight a growing industry shift toward integrated safety design, with improvements in technologies such as autonomous emergency braking and lane support translating into meaningful real-world protection.

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“ANCAP’s testing continues to reinforce a clear message: the safest vehicles are those designed with safety as a system, not a checklist. The top performers this year delivered consistent results across physical crash protection, crash avoidance and vulnerable road user safety, rather than relying on strength in a single area.

“We are also seeing increasing alignment between ANCAP’s test requirements and the safety technologies that genuinely matter on Australian and New Zealand roads. Improvements in autonomous emergency braking, lane support, and driver monitoring systems are translating into more robust protection,” Hoorweg said.

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