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SpaceX’s 100-launch target is more realistic than it seems

(Richard Angle)

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SpaceX is less than a month into 2023, but CEO Elon Musk’s wildly ambitious goal of 100 launches in one year is already looking doable.

Announced last August, Musk’s 100-launch 2023 target followed goals of 52and then 60 – Falcon rocket launches in 2022. Both 2022 goals were incredibly ambitious, with 60 requiring SpaceX to almost double its previous annual launch record. But for the first time in its history, SpaceX not only met – but exceeded – its executives’ forecasts. The company launched 61 times in 2022, tying a four-decade-old Soviet record for the most launches of a single family of rockets in one year. Anywhere close to 100 Falcon launches in 2023 would crush that record.

Prior to 2022, however, SpaceX infamously struggled to hit the high bars set by its ever-optimistic executives.

SpaceX’s next launch will be its 14th in two months – an average of 84 launches per year if the company can sustain it. (Richard Angle)

High achievements; higher bars

In September 2017, Musk predicted [PDF] that SpaceX would launch 20 times in 2017 and 30 times in 2018. SpaceX eventually launched 18 times in 2017 and 21 times in 2018. In September 2019, COO Gwynne Shotwell predicted that SpaceX would launch up to 18 times by the end of the year. The company would only launch 13 Falcon rockets in 2019 – the only time in the last 12 years that SpaceX’s launch cadence has dropped year-over-year.

At the same conference, Shotwell – typically viewed as the adult in the room relative to Musk’s more chaotic management style – also estimated that SpaceX would launch up to 24 Starlink missions in 2020. SpaceX went on to launch 26 times total in 2020, 15 of which were for Starlink. Finally, in October 2020, CEO Elon Musk revealed a target of 48 SpaceX launches in 2021. Instead, SpaceX launched 31 Falcon rockets – an impressive accomplishment by any measure but still far from its internal target.

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Only in 2022 did all of the puzzle pieces finally click together. Representing the payoff from years of buildup, SpaceX doubled the production of Falcon rocket stages and Starlink satellites, dramatically increased the availability of its drone ships and launch pads, and launched once every six days without a single failure.

(6)0 to 100

Ever the glutton for self-punishment, Musk responded to SpaceX’s success by raising 2023’s bar two-thirds higher than 2022’s in August. Instead of jinxing the company, SpaceX somehow sustained its high cadence through the end of the year and slightly surpassed Musk’s 60-launch goal.

In fact, the pace of SpaceX launches accelerated throughout 2022. SpaceX launched 13 times in the first quarter of 2022. In the fourth quarter of 2022, SpaceX launched 18 times – an increase of almost 40%. The same trend is visible on a smaller scale. In December 2021, SpaceX launched five times in one month for the first time in its history. SpaceX launched seven times (also a first) in December 2022.

One exceptional month does not necessarily translate into an exceptional year. However, SpaceX is on track to launch seven times in January 2023, implying that it could be the company’s new normal. When SpaceX first launched five times in one month in December 2021, it seemed unlikely that that would become its new normal. But SpaceX ultimately averaged more than five launches per month throughout 2022.

Time will tell if SpaceX can do the seemingly impossible twice in a row. For now, the company is off to a great start.

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Tesla lands new partnership with Uber as Semi takes center stage

Tesla and Uber will work together, using the company’s all-electric Semi, to make sustainable Class 8 electric trucks more affordable with three main strategies: Subsidized Pricing, Predictable Growth, and Optimization of Utilization.

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Credit: Uber

The Tesla Semi has led to a new partnership between the company and Uber, as the two are launching a program that aims to revolutionize logistics by making sustainable commercial vehicles more accessible.

Uber announced on Tuesday that it was planning to launch the Dedicated EV Fleet Accelerator Program in a new partnership with Tesla. Uber’s Freight division is mainly responsible for the new program, which it calls a “first-of-its-kind buyer’s program designed to make electric freight more affordable and accessible by addressing key adoption barriers.”

Tesla and Uber will work together, using the company’s all-electric Semi, to make sustainable Class 8 electric trucks more affordable with three main strategies: Subsidized Pricing, Predictable Growth, and Optimization of Utilization.

  • Subsidized Price: Fleets purchasing Tesla Semis through this program will receive a subsidy on the purchase price.   
  • Predictable Growth: Fleets will integrate their Tesla Semis into Uber Freight’s dedicated solutions for shippers for a pre-determined period. This creates an opportunity for carriers to forecast revenue with confidence, while shippers gain consistent access to reliable, zero-emission capacity. 
  • Optimize Utilization: Uber Freight taps into its extensive freight network to match carriers with consistent, high-quality freight from our strong shipper base—helping ensure the addition of these Tesla Semis stay fully utilized and carriers see dedicated, real, measurable returns from the start

Tesla will work directly with interested companies to iron out technical details about the Semi, as well as its cost of ownership based on the tailored needs of their business. Fleets can expect savings on the first day, Uber says, as they will avoid diesel fuel costs and reduced maintenance, a widely known advantage of EVs.

Uber announced that it had partnered with select carriers to pilot the Dedicated EV Fleet Accelerator Program prior to its launch:

“During the 2-month pilot program, the Tesla Semis showcased both reliability and efficiency for Uber Freight’s shipper network. Over 394 hours of drive time, carriers covered 12,377 miles. With an average net energy consumption of just 1.72 kWh per mile and only 60 hours of total charge time, these results highlight the operational viability of Tesla Semis on demanding freight lanes. “

In its press release launching the program, Uber effectively highlights how the use of the Semi can impact a company’s margins and profitability through fuel savings, reduced maintenance costs, and lower total cost of ownership.

This is something that turns so many people away from gas cars and toward EVs, so it’s no surprise that Uber wanted to emphasize this point on a larger scale with a company that utilizes a fleet of vehicles.

Tesla Semi shows strong results in ArcBest’s real-world freight trial

Tesla has been experimenting with a select group of companies, as well. It partnered with PepsiCo. several years ago, in an effort to launch a pilot program for the Semi. It had excellent results, showing higher efficiency, lower costs, and an exceptional ability to handle long runs.

Drivers have had a lot of positive things to say:

Tesla Semi earns strong reviews from veteran truckers

The Semi will enter mass production next year, but we anticipate that some companies will commit to Uber’s new platform well before then.

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Energy

Tesla recalls Powerwall 2 units in Australia

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(Credit: nathanwoodgc /Instagram)

Tesla will recall Powerwall 2 units in Australia after a handful of property owners reported fires that caused “minor property damage.” The fires were attributed to cells used by Tesla in the Powerwall 2.

Tesla Powerwall is a battery storage unit that retains energy from solar panels and is used by homeowners and businesses to maintain power in the event of an outage. It also helps alleviate the need to rely on the grid, which can help stabilize power locally.

Powerwall owners can also enroll in the Virtual Power Plant (VPP) program, which allows them to sell energy back to the grid, helping to reduce energy bills. Tesla revealed last year that over 100,000 Powerwalls were participating in the program.

Tesla announces 100k Powerwalls are participating in Virtual Power Plants

The Australia Competition and Consumer Commission said in a filing that it received several reports from owners of fires that led to minor damage. The Australian government agency did not disclose the number of units impacted by the recall.

The issue is related to the cells, which Tesla sources from a third-party company.

Anyone whose Powerwall 2 unit is impacted by the recall will be notified through the Tesla app, the company said.

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Cybertruck

Tesla launches Cybertruck orders in a new market with a catch

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla is launching Cybertruck orders in a new market, but there’s a bit of a catch.

The Cybertruck was launched in the Middle East earlier this year, as Tesla launched the ability to place a reservation for the all-electric pickup in the United Arab Emirates. It would be the first market outside of North America that would have the ability to place an order for the Cybertruck.

Tesla confirms Cybertruck will make its way out of North America this year

Other markets where the vehicle has been widely requested, like Europe and Asia, have still not approved the vehicle to be sold to the public, mostly because of size and design restrictions.

However, in the UAE, Tesla is opening up the ability for those who placed reservations for the vehicle to finally put in their order. The Order Configurator is only available to those who have already placed a reservation; it is not yet available to the public.

Tesla said it would open up the public online configurator across the Middle East in the coming weeks:

The UAE is not the only country that will have access to the Cybertruck, as fans in other Middle Eastern countries will also be able to place orders soon. Tesla announced back in April that Saudi Arabia and Qatar would also have Cybertruck deliveries.

These vehicles will be built at Tesla’s Gigafactory Texas plant just outside of Austin, as Gigafactory Berlin and Gigafactory Shanghai, two factories located in the same hemisphere as the Middle East, do not have established lines for Cybertruck production.

As for the other markets, Tesla CEO Elon Musk has hinted that the company could develop a smaller Cybertruck for those markets, as he admitted that in the long term, it likely made sense to build a more compact version for regions where roads are traditionally tighter.

Elon Musk hints at smaller Tesla Cybertruck version down the road

There has been no evidence of Tesla developing this more compact version, but it could eventually happen.

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