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SpaceX’s 100-launch target is more realistic than it seems

(Richard Angle)

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SpaceX is less than a month into 2023, but CEO Elon Musk’s wildly ambitious goal of 100 launches in one year is already looking doable.

Announced last August, Musk’s 100-launch 2023 target followed goals of 52and then 60 – Falcon rocket launches in 2022. Both 2022 goals were incredibly ambitious, with 60 requiring SpaceX to almost double its previous annual launch record. But for the first time in its history, SpaceX not only met – but exceeded – its executives’ forecasts. The company launched 61 times in 2022, tying a four-decade-old Soviet record for the most launches of a single family of rockets in one year. Anywhere close to 100 Falcon launches in 2023 would crush that record.

Prior to 2022, however, SpaceX infamously struggled to hit the high bars set by its ever-optimistic executives.

SpaceX’s next launch will be its 14th in two months – an average of 84 launches per year if the company can sustain it. (Richard Angle)

High achievements; higher bars

In September 2017, Musk predicted [PDF] that SpaceX would launch 20 times in 2017 and 30 times in 2018. SpaceX eventually launched 18 times in 2017 and 21 times in 2018. In September 2019, COO Gwynne Shotwell predicted that SpaceX would launch up to 18 times by the end of the year. The company would only launch 13 Falcon rockets in 2019 – the only time in the last 12 years that SpaceX’s launch cadence has dropped year-over-year.

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At the same conference, Shotwell – typically viewed as the adult in the room relative to Musk’s more chaotic management style – also estimated that SpaceX would launch up to 24 Starlink missions in 2020. SpaceX went on to launch 26 times total in 2020, 15 of which were for Starlink. Finally, in October 2020, CEO Elon Musk revealed a target of 48 SpaceX launches in 2021. Instead, SpaceX launched 31 Falcon rockets – an impressive accomplishment by any measure but still far from its internal target.

Only in 2022 did all of the puzzle pieces finally click together. Representing the payoff from years of buildup, SpaceX doubled the production of Falcon rocket stages and Starlink satellites, dramatically increased the availability of its drone ships and launch pads, and launched once every six days without a single failure.

(6)0 to 100

Ever the glutton for self-punishment, Musk responded to SpaceX’s success by raising 2023’s bar two-thirds higher than 2022’s in August. Instead of jinxing the company, SpaceX somehow sustained its high cadence through the end of the year and slightly surpassed Musk’s 60-launch goal.

In fact, the pace of SpaceX launches accelerated throughout 2022. SpaceX launched 13 times in the first quarter of 2022. In the fourth quarter of 2022, SpaceX launched 18 times – an increase of almost 40%. The same trend is visible on a smaller scale. In December 2021, SpaceX launched five times in one month for the first time in its history. SpaceX launched seven times (also a first) in December 2022.

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One exceptional month does not necessarily translate into an exceptional year. However, SpaceX is on track to launch seven times in January 2023, implying that it could be the company’s new normal. When SpaceX first launched five times in one month in December 2021, it seemed unlikely that that would become its new normal. But SpaceX ultimately averaged more than five launches per month throughout 2022.

Time will tell if SpaceX can do the seemingly impossible twice in a row. For now, the company is off to a great start.

Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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xAI’s Grok approved for Pentagon classified systems: report

Under the agreement, Grok can be deployed in systems handling classified intelligence analysis, weapons development, and battlefield operations. 

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Credit: xAI

Elon Musk’s xAI has signed an agreement with the United States Department of Defense (DoD) to allow Grok to be used in classified military systems.

Previously, Anthropic’s Claude had been the only AI system approved for the most sensitive military work, but a dispute over usage safeguards has reportedly prompted the Pentagon to broaden its options, as noted in a report from Axios.

Under the agreement, Grok can be deployed in systems handling classified intelligence analysis, weapons development, and battlefield operations. 

The publication reported that xAI agreed to the Pentagon’s requirement that its technology be usable for “all lawful purposes,” a standard Anthropic has reportedly resisted due to alleged ethical restrictions tied to mass surveillance and autonomous weapons use.

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Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is scheduled to meet with Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei in what sources expect to be a tense meeting, with the publication hinting that the Pentagon could designate Anthropic a “supply chain risk” if the company does not lift its safeguards. 

Axios stated that replacing Claude fully might be technically challenging even if xAI or other alternative AI systems take its place. That being said, other AI systems are already in use by the DoD. 

Grok already operates in the Pentagon’s unclassified systems alongside Google’s Gemini and OpenAI’s ChatGPT. Google is reportedly close to an agreement that will result in Gemini being used for classified use, while OpenAI’s progress toward classified deployment is described as slower but still feasible. 

The publication noted that the Pentagon continues talks with several AI companies as it prepares for potential changes in classified AI sourcing.

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Elon Musk denies Starlink’s price cuts are due to Amazon Kuiper

“This has nothing to do with Kuiper, we’re just trying to make Starlink more affordable to a broader audience,” Musk wrote in a post on X.

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Credit: Starlink

Elon Musk has pushed back on claims that Starlink’s recent price reductions are tied to Amazon’s Kuiper project.

In a post on X, Musk responded directly to a report suggesting that Starlink was cutting prices and offering free hardware to partners ahead of a planned IPO and increased competition from Kuiper.

“This has nothing to do with Kuiper, we’re just trying to make Starlink more affordable to a broader audience,” Musk wrote in a post on X. “The lower the cost, the more Starlink can be used by people who don’t have much money, especially in the developing world.”

The speculation originated from a post summarizing a report from The Information, which ran with the headline “SpaceX’s Starlink Makes Land Grab as Amazon Threat Looms.” The report stated that SpaceX is aggressively cutting prices and giving free hardware to distribution partners, which was interpreted as a reaction to Amazon’s Kuiper’s upcoming rollout and possible IPO.

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In a way, Musk’s comments could be quite accurate considering Starlink’s current scale. The constellation currently has more than 9,700 satellites in operation today, making it by far the largest satellite broadband network in operation. It has also managed to grow its user base to 10 million active customers across more than 150 countries worldwide. 

Amazon’s Kuiper, by comparison, has launched approximately 211 satellites to date, as per data from SatelliteMap.Space, some of which were launched by SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket. Starlink surpassed that number in early January 2020, during the early buildout of its first-generation network.

Lower pricing also aligns with Starlink’s broader expansion strategy. SpaceX continues to deploy satellites at a rapid pace using Falcon 9, and future launches aboard Starship are expected to significantly accelerate the constellation’s growth. A larger network improves capacity and global coverage, which can support a broader customer base.

In that context, price reductions can be viewed as a way to match expanding supply with growing demand. Musk’s companies have historically used aggressive pricing strategies to drive adoption at scale, particularly when vertical integration allows costs to decline over time.

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Tesla Giga Berlin makes a statement of solidarity amid IG Metall conflict

The display comes as tensions between Tesla and IG Metall continue to escalate.

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Creidt: Andre Thierig/X

Tesla Giga Berlin is sending a strong message of solidarity amid its ongoing legal dispute with German union IG Metall.

In a post on social media platform X, Giga Berlin plant manager André Thierig shared an image of the facility’s lobby covered with a large banner that reads: “Progress. Innovation. Success.” He added that the slogan reflects what the facility has stood for since Day One.

“Our lobby at Giga Berlin covered in a huge banner these days. Progress. Innovation. Success – this is what we stand for since we started production in 2022 and how we will go into our future!” Thierig wrote in his post on X. 

The display comes as tensions between Tesla and IG Metall continue to escalate.

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The dispute began after Tesla accused a union representative of secretly recording a works council meeting at Giga Berlin. Tesla stated that it filed a criminal complaint after the alleged incident. Police later confirmed they had seized a computer belonging to an IG Metall member as part of their investigation.

“What has happened today at Giga Berlin is truly beyond words! An external union representative from IG Metall attended a works council meeting. For unknown reasons he recorded the internal meeting and was caught in action! We obviously called police and filed a criminal complaint!” Thierig wrote on X at the time

IG Metall denied the accusation and characterized Tesla’s move as an election tactic ahead of upcoming works council elections. The union subsequently filed a defamation complaint against Thierig. Authorities later confirmed that an investigation had been opened in connection with the matter.

Giga Berlin began production in 2022 and has since become one of Tesla’s key European manufacturing hubs, producing the Model Y, the company’s best-selling vehicle. The facility has expanded capacity over the past years despite environmental protests, labor disputes, and regulatory scrutiny.

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