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SpaceX’s 100-launch target is more realistic than it seems

(Richard Angle)

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SpaceX is less than a month into 2023, but CEO Elon Musk’s wildly ambitious goal of 100 launches in one year is already looking doable.

Announced last August, Musk’s 100-launch 2023 target followed goals of 52and then 60 – Falcon rocket launches in 2022. Both 2022 goals were incredibly ambitious, with 60 requiring SpaceX to almost double its previous annual launch record. But for the first time in its history, SpaceX not only met – but exceeded – its executives’ forecasts. The company launched 61 times in 2022, tying a four-decade-old Soviet record for the most launches of a single family of rockets in one year. Anywhere close to 100 Falcon launches in 2023 would crush that record.

Prior to 2022, however, SpaceX infamously struggled to hit the high bars set by its ever-optimistic executives.

SpaceX’s next launch will be its 14th in two months – an average of 84 launches per year if the company can sustain it. (Richard Angle)

High achievements; higher bars

In September 2017, Musk predicted [PDF] that SpaceX would launch 20 times in 2017 and 30 times in 2018. SpaceX eventually launched 18 times in 2017 and 21 times in 2018. In September 2019, COO Gwynne Shotwell predicted that SpaceX would launch up to 18 times by the end of the year. The company would only launch 13 Falcon rockets in 2019 – the only time in the last 12 years that SpaceX’s launch cadence has dropped year-over-year.

At the same conference, Shotwell – typically viewed as the adult in the room relative to Musk’s more chaotic management style – also estimated that SpaceX would launch up to 24 Starlink missions in 2020. SpaceX went on to launch 26 times total in 2020, 15 of which were for Starlink. Finally, in October 2020, CEO Elon Musk revealed a target of 48 SpaceX launches in 2021. Instead, SpaceX launched 31 Falcon rockets – an impressive accomplishment by any measure but still far from its internal target.

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Only in 2022 did all of the puzzle pieces finally click together. Representing the payoff from years of buildup, SpaceX doubled the production of Falcon rocket stages and Starlink satellites, dramatically increased the availability of its drone ships and launch pads, and launched once every six days without a single failure.

(6)0 to 100

Ever the glutton for self-punishment, Musk responded to SpaceX’s success by raising 2023’s bar two-thirds higher than 2022’s in August. Instead of jinxing the company, SpaceX somehow sustained its high cadence through the end of the year and slightly surpassed Musk’s 60-launch goal.

In fact, the pace of SpaceX launches accelerated throughout 2022. SpaceX launched 13 times in the first quarter of 2022. In the fourth quarter of 2022, SpaceX launched 18 times – an increase of almost 40%. The same trend is visible on a smaller scale. In December 2021, SpaceX launched five times in one month for the first time in its history. SpaceX launched seven times (also a first) in December 2022.

One exceptional month does not necessarily translate into an exceptional year. However, SpaceX is on track to launch seven times in January 2023, implying that it could be the company’s new normal. When SpaceX first launched five times in one month in December 2021, it seemed unlikely that that would become its new normal. But SpaceX ultimately averaged more than five launches per month throughout 2022.

Time will tell if SpaceX can do the seemingly impossible twice in a row. For now, the company is off to a great start.

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Elon Musk just revealed more about Tesla’s June Robotaxi launch

Tesla CEO Elon Musk gave more information about the Robotaxi launch in Austin set for June.

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Steve Jurvetson, CC BY 2.0 , via Wikimedia Commons

Tesla CEO Elon Musk just revealed more details about the company’s June Robotaxi launch, which will kick off in Austin.

As of right now, Tesla is still set to push out the first Robotaxi rides in Austin, Texas, in early June. These vehicles will be in short supply at first, as Musk says the company is purposely rolling out the fleet in a slow and controlled fashion to prioritize safety. There will be ten vehicles in the Robotaxi fleet to start.

Tesla Robotaxi deemed a total failure by media — even though it hasn’t been released

However, in an interview with CNBC on Tuesday afternoon, Musk also revealed some other new details, including where in Austin the vehicles will be able to go, how many Robotaxis we could see on public roads within a few months, and other information regarding Tesla’s Full Self-Driving suite.

A Controlled Rollout

Tesla has maintained for a few months now that the Robotaxi fleet will be comprised of between 10 and 20 Model Y vehicles in Austin.

The Cybercab, which was unveiled by the company last October, will not be available initially, as those cars will likely be produced in 2026.

Musk said during the CNBC interview that Tesla is doing a low-yield trial at first to initiate a safety-first mentality. It is important for Tesla to launch the Robotaxi fleet in a small manner to keep things in check, at least at first.

As confidence builds and the accuracy of the fleet is ensured, more vehicles will be added to the fleet.

Musk believes there will be 1,000 Robotaxis on the road “in a few months.”

Geofenced to Certain Austin Areas

Tesla will be launching the Robotaxi program in a geofenced fashion that gives the company the ability to control where it goes. Musk says that the areas the Robotaxis will be able to travel to are among the safest neighborhoods and areas in Austin.

This is yet another safety protocol that will ensure the initial riders are not put in dangerous neighborhoods.

Some might be disappointed to hear this because of Tesla’s spoken confidence regarding Robotaxi, but the initial rollout does need to be controlled for safety reasons. An accident or incident of any kind that would put riders’ lives in danger would be catastrophic.

No Driver, No Problem

As the company has rolled out an employee-only version of the Robotaxi program in Austin and the San Francisco Bay Area, some wondered whether the rides would be driverless, as these initial trials for Tesla workers were not. Employee rides featured a human in the driver’s seat to ensure safety.

Tesla says it has launched ride-hailing Robotaxi teaser to employees only

The company did not report whether there were any interventions or not, but it did state that the vehicles traveled over 15,000 miles through 1,500 trips.

Musk confirmed during the interview that there will be no driver in the vehicle when the Robotaxi program launches in June. This will be groundbreaking as it will be the first time that Tesla vehicles will operate on public roads without anyone in the driver’s seat.

Full Self-Driving Licensing

For more than a year, Tesla has indicated that it is in talks with another major automaker regarding the licensing of Full Self-Driving. Many speculated that the company was Ford, but neither it nor Tesla confirmed this.

Musk said today that Tesla has been in touch with “a number of automakers” that have inquired about licensing FSD. Tesla has yet to sign any deal to do so.

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Elon Musk on Tesla vehicle sales: “We see no problem with demand”

“The sales numbers at this point are strong, and we see no problem with demand,” Musk said.

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(Credit: Tesla)

During a rather testy interview with Bloomberg’s Mishal Husain at the Qatar Economic Forum, Elon Musk stated that the demand for Tesla’s vehicles is still strong. Musk also stated that the issues that Tesla faced earlier his year have already turned around.

Already Turned Around

Tesla sales saw notable drops in the past months, particularly in Europe, where several countries saw drastically fewer Tesla sales year-over-year. Tesla stated in its Q1 2025 vehicle delivery report that the declines were largely due to the company’s changeover to the new Model Y, but media reports nevertheless placed the blame on Musk’s politics and his work with the Trump administration’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).

It was then no surprise that Bloomberg’s Husain pointed out Tesla’s low sales in Europe this April during the interview. When questioned about the matter, Musk stated that things have “already turned around.” Musk also noted that while Tesla sales are down in Europe so far, this is true for numerous other carmakers in the region.

No Problem With Demand

When asked for evidence to back up his claims, Musk stated that Europe is indeed Tesla’s weakest market, but the company remains “strong everywhere else.” He also admitted that while Tesla has “lost some sales from the left,” the company also “gained some from the right.” Musk highlighted the fact that Tesla stock, which is partly affected by analysts with insider information, is trading at near all-time highs.

“The sales numbers at this point are strong, and we see no problem with demand. You can just look at the stock price. If you want the best insider information, the stock market analysts have that, and our stock wouldn’t be trading near all-time highs if things weren’t in good shape. They’re fine. Don’t worry about it,” Musk said. 

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Watch Elon Musk’s full interview at the Qatar Economic Forum in the video below.

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Tesla’s Elon Musk confirms he’ll stay CEO for at least five more years

Tesla CEO Elon Musk eased any speculation about his role with the company as he confirmed he would be with the automaker for at least five more years.

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Tesla CEO Elon Musk unveils futuristic Cybertruck in Los Angeles, Nov. 21, 2019 (Photo: Teslarati)

Tesla’s Elon Musk said that he will still be CEO of the automaker in five years’ time, dispelling any potential skepticism regarding his commitment or plans with the company.

In the past, there was some speculation that Musk would leave Tesla if he was not adequately compensated for his work. He had a massive pay package taken from him by Delaware Judge Kathaleen McCormick in a move that caused Tesla to reincorporate its company in Texas.

Tesla Chair of the Board letter urges stockholders to approve Texas reincorporation

However, Musk confirmed today with a simple “Yes” that he would still be Tesla’s frontman in five years during an interview with Bloomberg at the Qatar Economic Forum:

“Do you see yourself and are you committed to still being the chief executive of Tesla in five years’ time?”

“Yes.”

Musk has had the massive $56 billion pay package declined twice by Chancellor McCormick, who has ruled that the pay was an “unfathomable sum.” Shareholders have voted twice in overwhelming fashion to award Musk with the pay package, but she has overruled it twice. This seemed to be one reason Musk might minimize his role or even step away from Tesla.

He said (via Bloomberg):

“The compensation should match that something incredible was done. But I’m confident that whatever some activist posing as a judge in Delaware happens to do will not affect the future compensation.”

Musk’s commitment to Tesla for the next five years will help steer the company in a more stable direction as it begins to expand its market well past automotive and sustainable energy. Although Tesla has been labeled as an AI company, it is also starting to push more into the robotics industry with the future release of the Optimus robot.

Now that Musk is on board for at least five more years, Tesla investors have their frontman, who has remained firm on the company’s vision to be a true disruptor in all things tech. The company’s stock is trading up just over 1 percent at the time of publication.

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