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SpaceX’s 100-launch target is more realistic than it seems

(Richard Angle)

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SpaceX is less than a month into 2023, but CEO Elon Musk’s wildly ambitious goal of 100 launches in one year is already looking doable.

Announced last August, Musk’s 100-launch 2023 target followed goals of 52and then 60 – Falcon rocket launches in 2022. Both 2022 goals were incredibly ambitious, with 60 requiring SpaceX to almost double its previous annual launch record. But for the first time in its history, SpaceX not only met – but exceeded – its executives’ forecasts. The company launched 61 times in 2022, tying a four-decade-old Soviet record for the most launches of a single family of rockets in one year. Anywhere close to 100 Falcon launches in 2023 would crush that record.

Prior to 2022, however, SpaceX infamously struggled to hit the high bars set by its ever-optimistic executives.

SpaceX’s next launch will be its 14th in two months – an average of 84 launches per year if the company can sustain it. (Richard Angle)

High achievements; higher bars

In September 2017, Musk predicted [PDF] that SpaceX would launch 20 times in 2017 and 30 times in 2018. SpaceX eventually launched 18 times in 2017 and 21 times in 2018. In September 2019, COO Gwynne Shotwell predicted that SpaceX would launch up to 18 times by the end of the year. The company would only launch 13 Falcon rockets in 2019 – the only time in the last 12 years that SpaceX’s launch cadence has dropped year-over-year.

At the same conference, Shotwell – typically viewed as the adult in the room relative to Musk’s more chaotic management style – also estimated that SpaceX would launch up to 24 Starlink missions in 2020. SpaceX went on to launch 26 times total in 2020, 15 of which were for Starlink. Finally, in October 2020, CEO Elon Musk revealed a target of 48 SpaceX launches in 2021. Instead, SpaceX launched 31 Falcon rockets – an impressive accomplishment by any measure but still far from its internal target.

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Only in 2022 did all of the puzzle pieces finally click together. Representing the payoff from years of buildup, SpaceX doubled the production of Falcon rocket stages and Starlink satellites, dramatically increased the availability of its drone ships and launch pads, and launched once every six days without a single failure.

(6)0 to 100

Ever the glutton for self-punishment, Musk responded to SpaceX’s success by raising 2023’s bar two-thirds higher than 2022’s in August. Instead of jinxing the company, SpaceX somehow sustained its high cadence through the end of the year and slightly surpassed Musk’s 60-launch goal.

In fact, the pace of SpaceX launches accelerated throughout 2022. SpaceX launched 13 times in the first quarter of 2022. In the fourth quarter of 2022, SpaceX launched 18 times – an increase of almost 40%. The same trend is visible on a smaller scale. In December 2021, SpaceX launched five times in one month for the first time in its history. SpaceX launched seven times (also a first) in December 2022.

One exceptional month does not necessarily translate into an exceptional year. However, SpaceX is on track to launch seven times in January 2023, implying that it could be the company’s new normal. When SpaceX first launched five times in one month in December 2021, it seemed unlikely that that would become its new normal. But SpaceX ultimately averaged more than five launches per month throughout 2022.

Time will tell if SpaceX can do the seemingly impossible twice in a row. For now, the company is off to a great start.

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Tesla shares epic 2025 recap video, confirms start of Cybercab production

The cinematic montage, posted by the official Tesla account on X, celebrated the company’s progress in EVs, energy, and Robotaxi development.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla has released an epic year-in-review video for 2025, recapping some of its major achievements from refreshed models to autonomy breakthroughs and production ramps. 

The cinematic montage, posted by the official Tesla account on X, celebrated the company’s progress in EVs, energy, and Robotaxi development while looking ahead to an even bigger 2026.

Tesla’s 2025 highlights recap

Tesla has had a busy 2025, as highlighted in the recap video. The video opened with Elon Musk explaining the company’s pursuit of sustainable abundance. A number of milestones were then highlighted, such as the rollout of FSD v14, Optimus’ numerous demos, the opening of the Tesla Diner in Hollywood, LA, the completion of the world’s first autonomous car delivery, and the launch of the Robotaxi network in Austin and the San Francisco Bay Area.

Tesla also highlighted several of its accomplishments over the year. As per the company, the Model Y was the year’s best-selling vehicle globally again, and Teslas became more affordable than ever thanks to the Model 3 and Model Y Standard. Other key models were also rolled out, such as the refreshed Model S and X, as well as the new Model Y, the new Model Y Performance, and the six-seat, extended wheelbase Model Y L. 

The Megablock was also unveiled during the year, and the Supercharger Network grew by 18%. Over 1 million Powerwalls were also installed during the year, and the Cybertruck became the first EV truck to get both an IIHS Top Safety Pick+ award and an NHTSA 5-Star safety rating. 

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Cybercab production confirmed

Interestingly enough, Tesla also confirmed in its 2025 recap video that the production of the Cybercab has started. This bodes well for the vehicle, as it could result in the vehicle really being mass-produced in the first half of 2026. Elon Musk confirmed during the 2025 Annual Shareholder Meeting that Cybercab production should earnestly start around April 2026

Musk has also noted that the Cybercab will be Tesla’s highest-volume vehicle yet, with the company aiming for an annual production rate of about 2 million units. “If you’ve seen the design of the Cybercab line, it doesn’t look like a normal car manufacturing line,” Musk said earlier this year. “It looks like a really high-speed consumer electronics line. In fact, the line will move so fast that actually people can’t even get close to it.”

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Tesla Cybercab is changing the look of Austin’s roads, and it’s not even in production yet

Videos and photos showed the sleek, two-seat autonomous vehicles navigating traffic.

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Credit: @niccruzpatane/X

Even before entering production, Tesla’s Cybercab is already transforming the appearance of Austin’s streets, with multiple prototypes spotted testing in downtown areas recently. 

Videos and photos showed the sleek, two-seat autonomous vehicles navigating traffic. Interestingly enough, the vehicles were equipped with temporary steering wheels and human safety drivers.

Recent Cybercab sightings

Over the weekend, enthusiasts captured footage of two Cybercabs driving together in central Austin, their futuristic silhouettes standing out amid regular traffic. While the vehicles featured temporary steering wheels and side mirrors for now, they retained their futuristic, production-intent exterior design.

Industry watcher Sawyer Merritt shared one of the vehicles’ videos, noting the increasing frequency of the autonomous two-seater’s sightings.

Previewing the autonomous future

Sightings of the Cybercab have been ramping in several key areas across the United States in recent weeks. Sightings include units at Apple’s Visitor Center in California, the Fremont factory test track, and in Austin’s streets.

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The increased activity suggests that Tesla is in overdrive, validating the autonomous two-seater ahead of its planned volume production. Elon Musk confirmed at the 2025 Shareholder Meeting that manufacturing begins around April 2026 with ambitious targets, and during an All-Hands meeting earlier this year, Musk hinted that ultimately, Tesla’s factories should be able to produce one Cybercab every 10 seconds. 

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Tesla celebrates 9 million vehicles produced globally

The achievement, announced by Tesla Asia on X, celebrated not just the Shanghai team’s output but the company’s cumulative production across all its factories worldwide.

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Credit: Tesla Asia/X

Tesla has achieved a new milestone, rolling out its nine millionth vehicle worldwide from Giga Shanghai. 

The achievement, announced by Tesla Asia on X, celebrated not just the Shanghai team’s output but the company’s cumulative production across all its factories worldwide. The milestone came as 2025 drew to a close, and it inspired praise from some of the company’s key executives.

Tesla’s 9 million vehicle milestone

The commemorative photo from Tesla Asia featured the Giga Shanghai team assembled on the factory floor, surrounding the milestone Model Y unit, which looked pristine in white. The image was captioned: “Our 9 millionth vehicle globally has just rolled off the production line at Giga Shanghai. Thanks to our owners and supporters around the world.” 

Senior Vice President of Automotive Tom Zhu praised Tesla’s factory teams for the remarkable milestone. He also shared his gratitude to Tesla owners for their support. “Congrats to all Tesla factories for this amazing milestone! Thanks to our owners for your continued support!” Zhu wrote in a post on X.

Giga Shanghai’s legacy

Tesla’s nine million vehicle milestone is especially impressive considering that just 207 days ago, the company announced that it had built its eight millionth car globally. The eight millionth Tesla, a red Model Y, was built in Giga Berlin. The fact that Tesla was able to build a million cars in less than seven months is quite an accomplishment. 

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Giga Shanghai, Tesla’s largest factory by volume, has been instrumental to the company’s overall operations, having reached four million cumulative vehicles earlier in 2025. The plant produces Model 3 and Model Y for both domestic Chinese and export markets, making it the company’s primary vehicle export hub. 

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