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World Energy Outlook: “Electric cars are happening” as global gasoline consumption peaks

A new forecast put together by The International Energy Agency (IEA) indicates that worldwide consumption of gasoline has peaked as Tesla and new players within the electric vehicle space halt demand growth in the next 25 years. IEA director Fatih Birol told press in London that the number of electric cars on the road worldwide will increase from 1 million last year to 150 million by 2040. Birol went on to say that demand for gasoline will peak very shortly if it has not already. Gasoline accounts for one in four barrels of oil consumed worldwide. “Electric cars are happening,” Birol said. The push for more efficient cars with lower carbon emissions is also spurring a decrease in demand for gasoline.
Birol’s forecast is in line with a statement made a few weeks ago by Simon Henry, CFO of Royal Dutch Shell. “We’ve long been of the opinion that demand will peak before supply,” he said. “And that peak may be somewhere between 5 and 15 years hence, and it will be driven by efficiency and substitution, more than offsetting the new demand for transport.”
According to Bloomberg, the IEA expects that gasoline consumption will drop 0.2% over the next 25 years even though the number of cars on the road worldwide is predicted to double to 2 billion vehicles during that period. Birol’s remarks came in connection with the release of the IEA’s annual World Energy Outlook for 2016.
Nevertheless, the IEA’s negative prediction for gasoline does not mean that demand for oil will cease any time soon. It still predicts overall oil demand will grow for several decades because of rising demand for so-called middle distalates — diesel, fuel oil, and jet fuel — by the shipping, trucking, aviation and petrochemical industries.
Philip Verleger, a veteran oil market analyst in Colorado, is more pessimistic about the IEA report. “Refiners across the globe can only hope that this [IEA] forecast turns out to be right, because all the indications are today that consumption is going to begin dropping not in 2030, but probably in 2020,” said Verleger. “It’s the best news a dying patient can hope to get.” Refineries are designed to maximize the production of gasoline. Changes in the marketplace may force them to invest billions to reconfigure the refining process.
Not all emissions come from automobiles and trucks. The global shipping industry is responsible for the largest amount of carbon emissions in the transportation sector. (Commercial airline numbers are not far behind.) Edward Humes, author of Door To Door looks at the total emissions impact of products the industrialized world uses each day. In an interview with NPR earlier this year, Humes says, “If you take 160 [large ships], the emissions from just those vessels, of the type of emissions that cause smog and particulate pollution, those 160 mega ships will be the equivalent of the emissions of all the cars in the world. And that’s just a tiny fraction of the worldwide fleet. Together, the cargo fleet generates about 2 to 3 percent of world carbon emissions, which would – if that fleet were a country, it would put them in the top 10 emitters of carbon dioxide in the world. In fact, it would put it ahead of Germany – the fourth-largest economy in the world.”
News
Tesla Superchargers open to Lucid Air, but not without one key thing
Lucid’s full lineup of EVs is now able to use Tesla Superchargers in the United States and Canada.

Tesla Superchargers will be open to Lucid Air vehicles starting on July 31, a move that comes nearly two years after the companies agreed to terms that would allow them to partner.
Lucid joins a long list of EV makers that have a full lineup of EVs that can utilize Tesla’s extensive Supercharger Network across the United States and parts of Canada. In all, over 32,500 Tesla Superchargers will be accessible to Lucid owners at the end of the month.
Lucid NACS adoption ‘must have been a bitter pill to swallow’: Elon Musk
All Air models, regardless of year or trim level, will gain access to the entire North American Tesla Supercharger Network. It will just need one key thing to charge: an NACS adapter.
Lucid Air sedans will require a DC NACS to CCS1 adapter in order to enable charging at the Tesla stalls. These will be priced at $220 plus tax.
Emad Dlala, Senior VP of Powertrain at Lucid, said:
“In addition to offering the longest-range electric vehicle available, Lucid is committed to offering our customers seamless and wide access to public charging. Access to the Tesla Supercharging Network for the Lucid Air is yet another major milestone.”
Charging speeds will allow Air EVs to charge at up to 50 kW, gaining up to 200 miles of range per hour.
As for the Lucid Gravity, the company’s SUV, it will not require the adapter because of its native NACS port. It gained access to the Supercharger Network in January.
Although Lucid Airs will not be able to charge at the rate of some other vehicles, they do boast some of the best range ratings in the EV industry. Having the luxury of additional charging piles to access will increase the value of the long-range ratings Lucid offers with its vehicles.
Lucid joins several other automakers that have a full lineup of EVs that have access to the Tesla Supercharger Network:
- Ford
- Rivian
- General Motors (Chevrolet, GMC, Cadillac)
- Volvo
- Polestar
- Nissan
- Mercedes-Benz
- Hyundai
- Kia
- Genesis
- Honda
- Acura
- Aptera
Other brands, like BMW, Audi, Volkswagen, Porsche, and Subaru, are expected to gain access in the near future.
News
Tesla Robotaxi wins over firm that said it was ‘likely to disappoint’
Tesla Robotaxi recently won over a Wall Street firm that had recently said the platform was “likely to disappoint.”

Tesla Robotaxi recently won over a Wall Street firm that had recently said the platform was “likely to disappoint.” The ride-hailing service has been operating for about a month, and driverless rides have been offered to a small group of people that continues to expand nearly every day.
JPMorgan went to Austin to test the Tesla Robotaxi platform, and it did so just a few weeks after listing Tesla as one of its “six stocks to short” in 2025. Highlighting the loss of the EV tax credit and labeling the Robotaxi initiative as one that was “likely to disappoint,” despite Tesla’s prowess in its self-driving software.
Analyst Ryan Brinkman has been skeptical of Tesla for some time, even stating that the company’s “sky-high valuation” was not in line with other stocks in the Magnificent Seven.
However, a recent visit to Texas that was made by JPMorgan analysts proved that the Robotaxi platform, despite being in its earliest stages, was enough for them to change their tune, at least slightly. The firm gave its props to the Tesla Robotaxi platform in a note by stating it was “certainly solid and felt like a safe ride at all times.”
It’s always nice to hear skeptics report positive experiences, especially as Robotaxi continues to improve and expand.
Tesla has already expanded its geofence for the Robotaxi suite in Austin, picking a very interesting shape for its newest boundaries:
Tesla’s Robotaxi expansion wasn’t a joke, it was a warning to competitors
As Robotaxi expands, Tesla is dealing with competition from Waymo, another self-driving ride-hailing service that is operating in Austin, among other areas. After Tesla’s expansion, which brought its accessible area to a greater size than Waymo’s, it responded by doubling its geofence.
Waymo’s expansion surpassed Tesla’s size considerably, and it seems Tesla is preparing to expand its geofence in the coming weeks.
Waymo responds to Tesla’s Robotaxi expansion in Austin with bold statement
The Robotaxi platform is not yet available to the public, but Tesla has been inviting more people to try it with every passing day. Currently, the map is roughly 42 square miles, but many believe Tesla is able to broaden this by a considerable margin whenever it decides.
Investor's Corner
Tesla needs to confront these concerns as its ‘wartime CEO’ returns: Wedbush
Tesla will report earnings for Q2 tomorrow. Here’s what Wedbush expects.

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) is set to report its earnings for the second quarter of 2025 tomorrow, and although Wall Street firm Wedbush is bullish as the company appears to have its “wartime CEO” back, it is looking for answers to a few concerns investors could have moving forward.
The firm’s lead analyst on Tesla, Dan Ives, has kept a bullish sentiment regarding the stock, even as Musk’s focus seemed to be more on politics and less on the company.
However, Musk has recently returned to his past attitude, which is being completely devoted and dedicated to his companies. He even said he would be sleeping in his office and working seven days a week:
Back to working 7 days a week and sleeping in the office if my little kids are away https://t.co/77cc6sRCFZ
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 20, 2025
Nevertheless, Ives has continued to push suggestions forward about what Tesla should do, what its potential valuation could be in the coming years with autonomy, and how it will deal with the loss of the EV tax credit.
Tesla preps to expand Robotaxi geofence once again, answering Waymo
These questions are at the forefront of what Ives suggests Tesla should confront on tomorrow’s call, he wrote in a note to investors that was released on Tuesday morning:
“Clearly, losing the EV tax credits with the recent Beltway Bill will be a headwind to Tesla and competitors in the EV landscape looking ahead, and this cash cow will become less of the story (and FCF) in 2026. We would expect some directional guidance on this topic during the conference call. Importantly, we anticipate deliveries globally to rebound in 2H led by some improvement on the key China front with the Model Y refresh a catalyst.”
Ives and Wedbush believe the autonomy could be worth $1 trillion for Tesla, especially as it continues to expand throughout Austin and eventually to other territories.
In the near term, Ives expects Tesla to continue its path of returning to growth:
“While the company has seen significant weakness in China in previous quarters given the rising competitive landscape across EVs, Tesla saw a rebound in June with sales increasing for the first time in eight months reflecting higher demand for its updated Model Y as deliveries in the region are starting to slowly turn a corner with China representing the heart and lungs of the TSLA growth story. Despite seeing more low-cost models enter the market from Chinese OEMs like BYD, Nio, Xpeng, and others, the company’s recent updates to the Model Y spurred increased demand while the accelerated production ramp-up in Shanghai for this refresh cycle reflected TSLA’s ability to meet rising demand in the marquee region. If Musk continues to lead and remain in the driver’s seat at this pace, we believe Tesla is on a path to an accelerated growth path over the coming years with deliveries expected to ramp in the back-half of 2025 following the Model Y refresh cycle.”
Tesla will report earnings tomorrow at market close. Wedbush maintained its ‘Outperform’ rating and held its $500 price target.
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