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World Energy Outlook: “Electric cars are happening” as global gasoline consumption peaks
A new forecast put together by The International Energy Agency (IEA) indicates that worldwide consumption of gasoline has peaked as Tesla and new players within the electric vehicle space halt demand growth in the next 25 years. IEA director Fatih Birol told press in London that the number of electric cars on the road worldwide will increase from 1 million last year to 150 million by 2040. Birol went on to say that demand for gasoline will peak very shortly if it has not already. Gasoline accounts for one in four barrels of oil consumed worldwide. “Electric cars are happening,” Birol said. The push for more efficient cars with lower carbon emissions is also spurring a decrease in demand for gasoline.
Birol’s forecast is in line with a statement made a few weeks ago by Simon Henry, CFO of Royal Dutch Shell. “We’ve long been of the opinion that demand will peak before supply,” he said. “And that peak may be somewhere between 5 and 15 years hence, and it will be driven by efficiency and substitution, more than offsetting the new demand for transport.”
According to Bloomberg, the IEA expects that gasoline consumption will drop 0.2% over the next 25 years even though the number of cars on the road worldwide is predicted to double to 2 billion vehicles during that period. Birol’s remarks came in connection with the release of the IEA’s annual World Energy Outlook for 2016.
Nevertheless, the IEA’s negative prediction for gasoline does not mean that demand for oil will cease any time soon. It still predicts overall oil demand will grow for several decades because of rising demand for so-called middle distalates — diesel, fuel oil, and jet fuel — by the shipping, trucking, aviation and petrochemical industries.
Philip Verleger, a veteran oil market analyst in Colorado, is more pessimistic about the IEA report. “Refiners across the globe can only hope that this [IEA] forecast turns out to be right, because all the indications are today that consumption is going to begin dropping not in 2030, but probably in 2020,” said Verleger. “It’s the best news a dying patient can hope to get.” Refineries are designed to maximize the production of gasoline. Changes in the marketplace may force them to invest billions to reconfigure the refining process.
Not all emissions come from automobiles and trucks. The global shipping industry is responsible for the largest amount of carbon emissions in the transportation sector. (Commercial airline numbers are not far behind.) Edward Humes, author of Door To Door looks at the total emissions impact of products the industrialized world uses each day. In an interview with NPR earlier this year, Humes says, “If you take 160 [large ships], the emissions from just those vessels, of the type of emissions that cause smog and particulate pollution, those 160 mega ships will be the equivalent of the emissions of all the cars in the world. And that’s just a tiny fraction of the worldwide fleet. Together, the cargo fleet generates about 2 to 3 percent of world carbon emissions, which would – if that fleet were a country, it would put them in the top 10 emitters of carbon dioxide in the world. In fact, it would put it ahead of Germany – the fourth-largest economy in the world.”
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Tesla CEO Elon Musk says next FSD release is the one we’ve been waiting for
On Thursday, Musk teased the capabilities and next steps for Tesla’s Full Self-Driving software, focusing squarely on the incremental improvements of the current v14.3 suite, as well as the looming arrival of v15.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk teased the capabilities of a future Full Self-Driving release, but it seems like we are getting what Yogi Berra once called “Déjà vu all over again.”
On Thursday, Musk teased the capabilities and next steps for Tesla’s Full Self-Driving software, focusing squarely on the incremental improvements of the current v14.3 suite, as well as the looming arrival of v15.
He confirmed that upcoming point releases of v14.3 will deliver additional polish to the current build, smoothing out remaining edges in an already capable system. These iterative updates, Musk noted, are designed to refine performance without requiring a full version overhaul.
Yet the real headline was Musk’s forecast for v15.
“V15 will far exceed human levels of safety, even in completely unsupervised and complex situations,” he wrote.
Tesla V14.3 self-driving review. The point releases will bring polish.
V15 will far exceed human levels of safety, even in completely unsupervised and complex situations. https://t.co/s4UK9RWw9f
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) April 9, 2026
He clarified that v15 will be powered by Tesla’s long-awaited large model, an AI architecture with roughly 10x the parameters of the smaller model currently in widespread use. The leap, Musk explained, stems from the unusually rapid progress of the compact model, which has advanced so quickly that the larger counterpart has yet to catch up in real-world deployment.
However, it is becoming a pattern that is, by now, familiar to anyone following Tesla’s autonomous driving roadmap.
There’s no debating you on that 🤷
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) April 9, 2026
Musk has consistently and repeatedly framed each successive major release as the one poised to deliver game-changing autonomy. Earlier versions were similarly positioned as a movement toward the final piece of the puzzle, only for attention to pivot to the next milestone once they arrived.
The refrain has become a recurring feature of FSD communication: current software is impressive, the point releases will sharpen it further, but the true breakthrough lies one major iteration ahead.
Musk’s latest comments fit squarely into that cadence. While v14.3 point releases are expected to tighten supervised driving behaviors in the coming weeks, v15 is cast as the version that finally crosses the threshold into unsupervised operation at human-or-better safety levels across demanding scenarios.
Our rate of advancement with the small model has been so fast that the large model has not yet caught up.
V15 will be the large model.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) April 9, 2026
The 10x parameter scale of the underlying large model is presented as the key technical enabler, promising richer reasoning and more robust decision-making than anything deployed to date.
Whether v15 ultimately fulfills that promise remains to be seen. Tesla’s history shows that each new target generates fresh excitement—and occasional skepticism—about timelines.
Fans realize Musk’s timelines for FSD are exciting, but rarely met:
You can see a rift happening in the Tesla bull community between a large group of reasonable people who aren’t afraid to acknowledge the elephants in the room, and those who are essentially bull bots whose entire identities are destroyed if they have to acknowledge any bump in…
— Mike P (@mikepat711) April 9, 2026
For now, Musk’s message is familiar: the immediate focus is polishing v14.3 through targeted point releases, while the 10x-parameter large model in v15 represents the next decisive step toward fully unsupervised, superhuman safety.
Hopefully, Tesla can come through, but we can only believe that once v15 gets here, v16 will be the next big step toward autonomy.
Drivers can expect continued refinement in the short term and a significantly more ambitious leap once the large model is ready. The cycle continues, but the stakes, Musk insists, keep rising.
Elon Musk
Tesla Supercharger for Business exposes jaw-dropping ROI gap between best and worst locations
Tesla’s new Supercharger for Business calculator reveals an eye-opening all-in cost and location-based ROI projections.
Tesla has launched an online calculator for its Supercharger for Business program, giving property owners their first transparent look at what it really costs to install Superchargers on site and what kind of return they can expect.
The program itself launched in September 2025, allowing businesses to purchase and operate Supercharger hardware on their own property while Tesla handles installation, maintenance, software, and 24/7 driver support. As Teslarati reported at launch, hosts also get their logo placed on the chargers and their location integrated into Tesla’s in-car navigation, meaning drivers are actively routed there. The stalls are open to all EVs, not just Teslas.
We launched Supercharger for Business in 2025 to help companies get charging right. We found simplicity and transparency to be a problem in this industry.
We’re now sharing pricing and a financial calculator to help make informed decisions. The goal is to accelerate investments,…
— Tesla Charging (@TeslaCharging) April 8, 2026
The new online calculator, announced by Tesla on Wednesday with the note that “simplicity and transparency” have been a problem in the industry, lets any business enter a U.S. address and get a real cost and revenue model. A standard 8-stall V4 Supercharger site runs approximately $500,000 in hardware and $55,000 per post for installation, bringing an all-in price just shy of $1 million. Tesla charges a flat $0.10 per kWh fee to cover software, billing, and network operations. Businesses set their own retail price and keep the margin above that fee.
Taking a look at Tesla’s Supercharger for Business online calculator, we can see that ROI is not uniform, and the gap between a strong location and a poor one can stretch the breakeven point by several years.
The biggest driver is foot traffic and how long people stay. A busy rest station, hotel, or outlet mall brings in repeat visitors who need to charge while they’re already stopped, pushing utilization numbers higher and shortening payback time.
Tesla Supercharger for Business ROI calculator
Local electricity rates matter just as much on the cost side. Markets like California carry some of the highest commercial electricity rates in the country, which eats into the margin between what a host pays per kWh and what they charge drivers. At the same time, dense urban areas with high EV adoption tend to support higher retail charging prices, which can offset that cost if demand is strong enough. Weather also plays a role. Cold climates reduce battery efficiency and increase charging frequency, but they can also suppress utilization in winter months if drivers avoid stopping in exposed outdoor locations. Suburban and rural sites face a different problem: lower baseline EV traffic, which means a site with cheaper power and lower operating costs can still take longer to pay back simply because the stalls sit idle more often. Tesla’s calculator uses real fleet data to pre-fill utilization estimates by ZIP code, so businesses can run their specific address against these variables rather than relying on averages.
The program has seen real adoption. Wawa, already the largest host of Tesla Superchargers with over 2,100 stalls across 223 locations, opened its first fully owned and branded site in Alachua, Florida earlier this year. Francis Energy of Oklahoma and the city of Alpharetta, Georgia have also deployed branded stations through the program, as Teslarati covered in January.
Tesla now exceeds 80,000 Supercharger stalls worldwide, and the calculator makes the economic case for accelerating that number through private investment rather than company-owned sites alone.
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Elon Musk drops a bomb regarding Tesla Model S, X inventory
After more than a decade on the road, the original flagship sedan and SUV platforms are effectively at the end of the line. Production of new Model S and Model X vehicles has ceased, and custom orders were quietly halted in early April. What remains are roughly a few hundred factory inventory units scattered across the globe, mostly Plaid variants, and they are disappearing fast.
Elon Musk just dropped a bomb regarding Tesla Model S and X inventory, and as the company is phasing out the flagship vehicles, it sounds like the time to purchase one brand new is almost over.
Musk confirmed on Wednesday that there are “only a few hundred Tesla Model S & X cars left in inventory. Order now if you want one.”
Tesla is running out of units rather quickly.
The message from Musk reads like a final call for two of the company’s most storied vehicles.
Only a few hundred Tesla Model S & X cars left in inventory. Order now if you want one.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) April 8, 2026
After more than a decade on the road, the original flagship sedan and SUV platforms are effectively at the end of the line. Production of new Model S and Model X vehicles has ceased, and custom orders were quietly halted in early April. What remains are roughly a few hundred factory inventory units scattered across the globe, mostly Plaid variants, and they are disappearing fast.
The news marks the close of a remarkable 14-year chapter. Launched in 2012, the Model S redefined the electric vehicle with blistering acceleration, over-the-air updates, and a luxury interior that embarrassed traditional sedans.
The Model X followed in 2015, turning heads with its Falcon-wing doors and seating for seven.
Together, the Model S and Model X proved EVs could be desirable halo cars, not just eco-friendly commuters. Their departure clears factory space at Tesla’s Fremont plant for something the mass production of the Optimus humanoid robot, which Musk believes will be the greatest contributor to the company’s value.
Musk has repeatedly signaled that Tesla’s future lies beyond passenger cars. Resources once devoted to low-volume flagships are shifting toward autonomy, Robotaxis, and AI hardware. Optimus, the company’s general-purpose robot, is expected to handle manufacturing, household chores, and eventually complex labor.
In the short term, the scarcity has already driven prices on remaining inventory up by about $15,000, turning the last Model S and X into instant collector’s items.
Tesla uses Model S and X ‘sentimental’ value to enforce massive pricing move
The announcement underscores Tesla’s relentless pivot. While the Model Y continues to hold strong sales, the legacy S and X represented an earlier era of pure performance luxury.
The future has been paved by Tesla and Musk’s focus on autonomy, at least in the United States. Customers continue to call for a large SUV, which might be on the way after a recent nudge from Musk on X.
However, whatever the future holds, it has been forged by Tesla’s two flagship vehicles.
Once these final cars are gone, the Model S and Model X will live on only in driveways, forums, and the rear-view mirror of automotive history.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk says next FSD release is the one we’ve been waiting for
Tesla Supercharger for Business exposes jaw-dropping ROI gap between best and worst locations
