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Morgan Stanley posts optimistic Tesla FSD expectations after V12.3.6 experience

Credit: Tesla Tutorials/YouTube

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Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas recently shared some thoughts after personally experiencing FSD (Supervised) V12.3.6. Jonas seemed quite impressed with the advanced driver-assist system, noting that it becomes cautious or assertive when it should be. He also noted that the improvements from FSD (Supervised) V12.3.4 to V12.3.6 are quite evident.

Jonas noted that the version of FSD that he recently experienced included minor tweaks, though a more substantial improvement to the system is expected with the FSD (Supervised) V12.4 release. With version V12.4, most training compute limitations have been eliminated, the analyst noted. 

The Morgan Stanley analyst described a situation where cars could learn by learning instead of labeling. 

“Imagine you tell your robot to: ‘Pick up the red pen on the floor and balance it on one end on the table.’ And the robot picks up the pen and balances it on the table. The command and resulting action is possible due to the robot understanding natural language, knowing what a red pen is, what a table is and what it was asked to do with it. 

“Even if it never did this precise combination of movements before, it understood what was asked of it by observing and imitating permutations of such behaviors many, many times before – perhaps millions of times in reality and trillions of times in simulation. Even if it was never explicitly ‘told’ what a red pen was. It just figured it out,” Jonas wrote. 

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Interestingly enough, the Morgan Stanley analyst provided a notable estimate of the data that Tesla is currently collecting from its fleet. As per the analyst, Tesla has about 5.5 million cars on the road today, and this number may grow to 25 million units by FY2030 and over 50 million units by 2035. 

Jonas also noted that Tesla’s vehicle fleet should be driving a collective 100 billion miles per year run rate by late 2025. Such a number translates to 11.6 million miles an hour or 3,200 miles per second, or almost 2 billion collective miles per week. Provided that FSD’s take rate does increase, a significant number of these miles could be driven without human input.

For context, Tesla noted during its Q1 2024 Update Letter that its FSD fleet has traveled a cumulative distance of 1.3 billion miles. Musk also noted in his Master Plan Part Deux in July 2016 that worldwide regulatory approval for autonomous cars may be possible with 6 billion cumulative miles. 

Don’t hesitate to contact us with news tips. Just send a message to simon@teslarati.com to give us a heads up.

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Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Tesla discloses interesting collaboration partner for Supercharging

This BOXABL collaboration would be a great way to add a rest stop to a rural Supercharging location, and could lead to more of these chargers across the U.S. 

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Credit: Grok

Tesla disclosed an interesting collaboration partner in an SEC filing, which looks like an indication of a potential project at Supercharger sites.

Tesla said on Tuesday in the filing that it was entering an agreement with BOXABL to design and build a Micromenity structure. Simply put, this is a modular building, usually a few hundred square feet in size, and it has been seen at Superchargers in Europe.

In Magnant, France, Tesla opened a small building at a Supercharger that is available to all EV owners. There are snacks and drinks inside, including ice cream, coffee, a gaming console, and restrooms. It gives people an opportunity to get up and out of their cars while charging.

This building was not built by BOXABL, but instead by bk World Lounges. It is likely the final Supercharging stop before people get to Paris, as it is located 250 kilometers, or 155 miles, from the City of Light.

 

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Une publication partagée par Gerold Wolfarth (@gerold_wolfarth)

Magnant has 56 stalls, so it is a large Supercharging stop compared to most. The building could be a sign of things to come, especially as Tesla has opened up larger Supercharger stations along major roadways.

It is for just a single building, as the Scope of Work within the filing states “a comprehensive package for one Micromenity building.”

Superchargers are commonly located at gas stations, shopping centers, and other major points of interest. However, there are some stops that are isolated from retail or entertainment.

This BOXABL collaboration would be a great way to add a rest stop to a rural Supercharging location, and could lead to more of these chargers across the U.S.

Tesla has done a lot of really great things for Supercharging this year.

Along with widespread expansion, the company launched the “Charging Passport” this week, opened the largest Supercharger in the world in Lost Hills, California, with 168 chargers, opened the Tesla Diner, a drive-in movie restaurant in Los Angeles, and initiated access to the infrastructure to even more automakers.

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Tesla CEO Elon Musk confirms Robotaxi safety monitor removal in Austin: here’s when

Musk has made the claim about removing Safety Monitors from Tesla Robotaxi vehicles in Austin three times this year, once in September, once in October, and once in November.

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Credit: @AdanGuajardo/X

Tesla CEO Elon Musk confirmed on Tuesday at the xAI Hackathon that the company would be removing Safety Monitors from Robotaxis in Austin in just three weeks.

This would meet Musk’s timeline from earlier this year, as he has said on several occasions that Tesla Robotaxis would have no supervision in Austin by the end of 2025.

On Tuesday, Musk said:

“Unsupervised is pretty much solved at this point. So there will be Tesla Robotaxis operating in Austin with no one in them. Not even anyone in the passenger seat in about three weeks.”

Musk has made the claim about removing Safety Monitors from Tesla Robotaxi vehicles in Austin three times this year, once in September, once in October, and once in November.

In September, he said:

“Should be no safety driver by end of year.”

On the Q3 Earnings Call in October, he said:

“We are expecting ot have no safety drivers in at least large parts of Austin by the end of this year.”

Finally, in November, he reiterated the timeline in a public statement at the Shareholder Meeting:

“I expect Robotaxis to operate without safety drivers in large parts of Austin this year.”

Currently, Tesla uses Safety Monitors in Austin in the passenger’s seat on local roads. They will sit in the driver’s seat for highway routes. In the Bay Area ride-hailing operation, there is always a Safety Monitor in the driver’s seat.

Three weeks would deliver on the end-of-year promise, cutting it close, beating it by just two days. However, it would be a tremendous leap forward in the Robotaxi program, and would shut the mouths of many skeptics who state the current iteration is no different than having an Uber.

Tesla has also expanded its Robotaxi fleet this year, but the company has not given exact figures. Once it expands its fleet, even more progress will be made in Tesla’s self-driving efforts.

Tesla expands Robotaxi geofence, but not the garage

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SpaceX reportedly mulling IPO, eyeing largest of all time: report

“I do want to try to figure out some way for Tesla shareholders to participate in SpaceX. I’ve been giving a lot of thought to how to give people access to SpaceX stock,” Musk said.

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Credit: SpaceX

SpaceX is reportedly mulling an initial public offering, eyeing what would be the largest valuation at the time of availability of all time, a new report from Bloomberg said on Tuesday.

It is one of many reports involving one of Elon Musk’s companies and a massive market move, as this is not the first time we have seen reports of an IPO by SpaceX. Musk himself has also dispelled other reports in the past of a similar nature, including an xAI funding round.

SpaceX and Musk have yet to comment on the report. In the past, untrue reports were promptly replied to by the CEO; this has not yet gained any response, which is a good sign in terms of credibility.

However, he said just a few days ago that stories of this nature are inaccurate:

“There has been a lot of press claiming SpaceX is raising money at $800B, which is not accurate. SpaceX has been cash flow positive for many years and does periodic stock buybacks twice a year to provide liquidity for employees and investors. Valuation increments are a function of progress with Starship and Starlink and securing global direct-to-cell spectrum that greatly increases our addressable market. And one other thing that is arguably most significant by far.”

Musk has discussed a potential IPO for SpaceX in recent months, as the November 6 shareholder meeting, as he commented on the “downsides” of having a public company, like litigation exposure, quarterly reporting pressures, and other inconveniences.

Nevertheless, Musk has also said he wants there to be a way for Tesla shareholders to get in on the action. At the meeting in early November, he said:

“I do want to try to figure out some way for Tesla shareholders to participate in SpaceX. I’ve been giving a lot of thought to how to give people access to SpaceX stock.”

Additionally, he added:

“Maybe at some point., SpaceX should become a public company despite all the downsides of being public.”

Musk has been historically reluctant to take SpaceX public, at times stating it could become a barrier to colonizing Mars. That does not mean it will not happen.

Bloomberg’s report cites multiple unidentified sources who are familiar with the matter. They indicate to the publication that SpaceX wants to go public in mid-to-late 2026, and it wants to raise $30 billion at a valuation of around $1.5 trillion.

This is not the first time SpaceX has discussed an IPO; we reported on it nine years ago. We hope it is true, as the community has spoken for a long time about having access to SpaceX stock. Legendary investor Ron Baron is one of the lucky few to be a SpaceX investor, and said it, along with Tesla, is a “lifetime investment.”

Tesla bull Ron Baron reveals $100M SpaceX investment, sees 3-5x return on TSLA

The primary driver of SpaceX’s value is Starlink, the company’s satellite internet service. Starlink contributes 60-70 percent of SpaceX’s revenue, meaning it is the primary value engine. Launch services, like Falcon 9 contracts, and the development of Starship, also play supporting roles.

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