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Morgan Stanley posts optimistic Tesla FSD expectations after V12.3.6 experience
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas recently shared some thoughts after personally experiencing FSD (Supervised) V12.3.6. Jonas seemed quite impressed with the advanced driver-assist system, noting that it becomes cautious or assertive when it should be. He also noted that the improvements from FSD (Supervised) V12.3.4 to V12.3.6 are quite evident.
Jonas noted that the version of FSD that he recently experienced included minor tweaks, though a more substantial improvement to the system is expected with the FSD (Supervised) V12.4 release. With version V12.4, most training compute limitations have been eliminated, the analyst noted.
The Morgan Stanley analyst described a situation where cars could learn by learning instead of labeling.
Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas shares his Tesla FSD (Supervised) v12.3.6 experience. His initial impressions:
• Cautious when it needs to be
• Assertive when it should be
• Seems to demonstrate a heightened sensitivity to pedestrians or things associated with pedestrians (i.e.… pic.twitter.com/dZtVti3BdT— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) May 6, 2024
“Imagine you tell your robot to: ‘Pick up the red pen on the floor and balance it on one end on the table.’ And the robot picks up the pen and balances it on the table. The command and resulting action is possible due to the robot understanding natural language, knowing what a red pen is, what a table is and what it was asked to do with it.
“Even if it never did this precise combination of movements before, it understood what was asked of it by observing and imitating permutations of such behaviors many, many times before – perhaps millions of times in reality and trillions of times in simulation. Even if it was never explicitly ‘told’ what a red pen was. It just figured it out,” Jonas wrote.
-->Interestingly enough, the Morgan Stanley analyst provided a notable estimate of the data that Tesla is currently collecting from its fleet. As per the analyst, Tesla has about 5.5 million cars on the road today, and this number may grow to 25 million units by FY2030 and over 50 million units by 2035.
Jonas also noted that Tesla’s vehicle fleet should be driving a collective 100 billion miles per year run rate by late 2025. Such a number translates to 11.6 million miles an hour or 3,200 miles per second, or almost 2 billion collective miles per week. Provided that FSD’s take rate does increase, a significant number of these miles could be driven without human input.
For context, Tesla noted during its Q1 2024 Update Letter that its FSD fleet has traveled a cumulative distance of 1.3 billion miles. Musk also noted in his Master Plan Part Deux in July 2016 that worldwide regulatory approval for autonomous cars may be possible with 6 billion cumulative miles.
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News
Tesla’s most affordable car is coming to the Netherlands
The trim is expected to launch at €36,990, making it the most affordable Model 3 the Dutch market has seen in years.
Tesla is preparing to introduce the Model 3 Standard to the Netherlands this December, as per information obtained by AutoWeek. The trim is expected to launch at €36,990, making it the most affordable Model 3 the Dutch market has seen in years.
While Tesla has not formally confirmed the vehicle’s arrival, pricing reportedly comes from a reliable source, the publication noted.
Model 3 Standard lands in NL
The U.S. version of the Model 3 Standard provides a clear preview of what Dutch buyers can expect, such as a no-frills configuration that maintains the recognizable Model 3 look without stripping the car down to a bare interior. The panoramic glass roof is still there, the exterior design is unchanged, and Tesla’s central touchscreen-driven cabin layout stays intact.
Cost reductions come from targeted equipment cuts. The American variant uses fewer speakers, lacks ventilated front seats and heated rear seats, and swaps premium materials for cloth and textile-heavy surfaces. Performance is modest compared with the Premium models, with a 0–100 km/h sprint of about six seconds and an estimated WLTP range near 550 kilometers.
Despite the smaller battery and simpler suspension, the Standard maintains the long-distance capability drivers have come to expect in a Tesla.
-->Pricing strategy aligns with Dutch EV demand and taxation shifts
At €36,990, the Model 3 Standard fits neatly into Tesla’s ongoing lineup reshuffle. The current Model 3 RWD has crept toward €42,000, creating space for a more competitive entry-level option, and positioning the new Model 3 Standard comfortably below the €39,990 Model Y Standard.
The timing aligns with rising Dutch demand for affordable EVs as subsidies like SEPP fade and tax advantages for electric cars continue to wind down, EVUpdate noted. Buyers seeking a no-frills EV with solid range are then likely to see the new trim as a compelling alternative.
With the U.S. variant long established and the Model Y Standard already available in the Netherlands, the appearance of an entry-level Model 3 in the Dutch configurator seems like a logical next step.
News
Tesla Model Y is still China’s best-selling premium EV through October
The premium-priced SUV outpaced rivals despite a competitive field, while the Model 3 also secured an impressive position.
The Tesla Model Y led China’s top-selling pure electric vehicles in the 200,000–300,000 RMB segment through October 2025, as per Yiche data compiled from China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) figures.
The premium-priced SUV outpaced rivals despite a competitive field, while the Model 3 also secured an impressive position.
The Model Y is still unrivaled
The Model Y’s dominance shines in Yiche’s October report, topping the chart for vehicles priced between 200,000 and 300,000 RMB. With 312,331 units retailed from January through October, the all-electric crossover was China’s best-selling EV in the 200,000–300,000 RMB segment.
The Xiaomi SU7 is a strong challenger at No. 2 with 234,521 units, followed by the Tesla Model 3, which achieved 146,379 retail sales through October. The Model Y’s potentially biggest rival, the Xiaomi YU7, is currently at No. 4 with 80,855 retail units sold.
Efficiency kings
The Model 3 and Model Y recently claimed the top two spots in Autohome’s latest real-world energy-consumption test, outperforming a broad field of Chinese-market EVs under identical 120 km/h cruising conditions with 375 kg payload and fixed 24 °C cabin temperature. The Model 3 achieved 20.8 kWh/100 km while the Model Y recorded 21.8 kWh/100 km, reaffirming Tesla’s efficiency lead.
The results drew immediate attention from Xiaomi CEO Lei Jun, who publicly recognized Tesla’s advantage while pledging continued refinement for his brand’s lineup.
-->“The Xiaomi SU7’s energy consumption performance is also very good; you can take a closer look. The fact that its test results are weaker than Tesla’s is partly due to objective reasons: the Xiaomi SU7 is a C-segment car, larger and with higher specifications, making it heavier and naturally increasing energy consumption. Of course, we will continue to learn from Tesla and further optimize its energy consumption performance!” Lei Jun wrote in a post on Weibo.
Elon Musk
SpaceX’s Starship program is already bouncing back from Booster 18 fiasco
Just over a week since Booster 18 met its untimely end, SpaceX is now busy stacking Booster 19, and at a very rapid pace, too.
SpaceX is already bouncing back from the fiasco that it experienced during Starship Booster 18’s initial tests earlier this month.
Just over a week since Booster 18 met its untimely end, SpaceX is now busy stacking Booster 19, and at a very rapid pace, too.
Starship V3 Booster 19 is rising
As per Starbase watchers on X, SpaceX rolled out the fourth aft section of Booster 19 to Starbase’s MegaBay this weekend, stacking it to reach 15 rings tall with just a few sections remaining. This marks the fastest booster assembly to date at four sections in five days. This is quite impressive, and it bodes well for SpaceX’s Starship V3 program, which is expected to be a notable step up from the V2 program, which was retired after a flawless Flight 11.
Starship watcher TankWatchers noted the tempo on X, stating, “During the night the A4 section of Booster 19 rolled out to the MegaBay. With 4 sections in just 5 days, this is shaping up to be the fastest booster stack ever.” Fellow Starbase watcher TestFlight echoed the same sentiments. “Booster 19 is now 15 rings tall, with 3 aft sections remaining!” the space enthusiast wrote.
Aggressive targets despite Booster 18 fiasco
SpaceX’s V3 program encountered a speed bump earlier this month when Booster 18, just one day after rolling out into the factory, experienced a major anomaly during gas system pressure testing at SpaceX’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas. While no propellant was loaded, no engines were installed, and no one was injured in the incident, the unexpected end of Booster 18 sparked speculation that the Starship V3 program could face delays.
-->Despite the Booster 18 fiasco, however, SpaceX announced that “Starship’s twelfth flight test remains targeted for the first quarter of 2026.” Elon Musk shared a similar timeline on X earlier this year, with the CEO stating that “ V3 is a massive upgrade from the current V2 and should be through production and testing by end of year, with heavy flight activity next year.”
Considering that Booster 19 seems to be moving through its production phases quickly, perhaps SpaceX’s Q1 2026 target for Flight 12 might indeed be more than feasible.
Tesla’s most affordable car is coming to the Netherlands
Tesla Model Y is still China’s best-selling premium EV through October
