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Morgan Stanley posts optimistic Tesla FSD expectations after V12.3.6 experience

Credit: Tesla Tutorials/YouTube

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Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas recently shared some thoughts after personally experiencing FSD (Supervised) V12.3.6. Jonas seemed quite impressed with the advanced driver-assist system, noting that it becomes cautious or assertive when it should be. He also noted that the improvements from FSD (Supervised) V12.3.4 to V12.3.6 are quite evident.

Jonas noted that the version of FSD that he recently experienced included minor tweaks, though a more substantial improvement to the system is expected with the FSD (Supervised) V12.4 release. With version V12.4, most training compute limitations have been eliminated, the analyst noted. 

The Morgan Stanley analyst described a situation where cars could learn by learning instead of labeling. 

“Imagine you tell your robot to: ‘Pick up the red pen on the floor and balance it on one end on the table.’ And the robot picks up the pen and balances it on the table. The command and resulting action is possible due to the robot understanding natural language, knowing what a red pen is, what a table is and what it was asked to do with it. 

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“Even if it never did this precise combination of movements before, it understood what was asked of it by observing and imitating permutations of such behaviors many, many times before – perhaps millions of times in reality and trillions of times in simulation. Even if it was never explicitly ‘told’ what a red pen was. It just figured it out,” Jonas wrote. 

Interestingly enough, the Morgan Stanley analyst provided a notable estimate of the data that Tesla is currently collecting from its fleet. As per the analyst, Tesla has about 5.5 million cars on the road today, and this number may grow to 25 million units by FY2030 and over 50 million units by 2035. 

Jonas also noted that Tesla’s vehicle fleet should be driving a collective 100 billion miles per year run rate by late 2025. Such a number translates to 11.6 million miles an hour or 3,200 miles per second, or almost 2 billion collective miles per week. Provided that FSD’s take rate does increase, a significant number of these miles could be driven without human input.

For context, Tesla noted during its Q1 2024 Update Letter that its FSD fleet has traveled a cumulative distance of 1.3 billion miles. Musk also noted in his Master Plan Part Deux in July 2016 that worldwide regulatory approval for autonomous cars may be possible with 6 billion cumulative miles. 

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Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Elon Musk

Elon Musk strikes down reports on SpaceX IPO rumors

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Credit: Grok

Elon Musk has firmly denied recent media reports suggesting that SpaceX has reduced its target valuation for an upcoming initial public offering.

The denial came directly from the SpaceX and Tesla frontman on his social media platform X, where he responded with a single word, “False,” to a post from ZeroHedge that cited Bloomberg sources.

This swift rebuttal underscores Musk’s ongoing effort to manage speculation surrounding one of the most anticipated market debuts in recent history.

According to the disputed reports, SpaceX had lowered its IPO valuation goal to at least $1.8 trillion from previous ambitions exceeding $2 trillion.

The claims emerged amid growing anticipation for the company’s confidential S-1 filing, which positions it for a potential public listing as early as June.

Some had pointed to strong revenue growth, particularly from the Starlink satellite internet service, which contributed heavily to the firm’s 2025 figures of $18.7 billion. Yet challenges persist in other areas, including substantial investments and losses tied to ambitious projects like Starship development and artificial intelligence initiatives, which plan to make life multiplanetary eventually.

Musk’s response highlights a pattern in which he actively counters what he views as inaccurate portrayals of his companies’ trajectories.

SpaceX, already valued privately at extraordinary levels, stands as a cornerstone of Musk’s empire alongside Tesla and xAI. The entrepreneur has long emphasized the transformative potential of reusable rockets and global broadband access, factors that fuel investor enthusiasm despite operational hurdles.

By rejecting the valuation downgrade narrative, Musk signals confidence in SpaceX’s fundamentals and its readiness for public markets on terms favorable to its long-term vision. People have been waiting a very long time to invest in SpaceX, and the valuation, as well as the introductory share price, is not going to need adjusting.

They’ll have plenty of suitors.

SpaceX just filed for the IPO everyone was waiting for

This episode reflects broader dynamics in the technology sector, where rumors often swirl around high-profile entities. Musk’s direct engagement with media narratives serves to maintain transparency and control the narrative around his ventures.

As SpaceX prepares for greater scrutiny in public markets, the founder’s denial reinforces optimism about its prospects. Supporters argue that the company’s innovative edge positions it for enduring success, far beyond short-term valuation debates. With the denial now public, attention turns to forthcoming regulatory filings that could provide clearer insights into SpaceX’s strategy and financial health.

The coming weeks promise to reveal more about how SpaceX will transition into a publicly traded powerhouse.

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Elon Musk

Tesla’s Robotaxi dreams just took a massive step toward reality

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla’s dreams of operating a fully autonomous ride-hailing platform just took a massive step toward reality, as two separate events have indicated the company is perhaps closer than ever to achieving self-driving as a product.

On Thursday, Tesla was granted authorization by the State of Texas to operate driverless vehicles in a commercial manner. On May 28, Senate Bill 2807, passed by the 89th Texas Legislature, took effect after being passed back on September 1, 2025.

The bill establishes a statewide regulatory framework requiring authorization from the Texas Department of Motor Vehicles for companies to operate automated vehicles commercially on Texas roads.

This covers driverless, or SAE Level 4+, operations for passenger transport, meaning Robotaxi, or freight.

Tesla and other companies can self-certify their vehicles and tech as long as they:

  • Operate in compliance with Texas traffic laws
  • Maintain proper registration, title, and insurance
  • Use compliant automated driving systems
  • Record onboard activity and handle system failures and glitches safely.

The new authorization, which was first reported by James Stephenson on X, allows companies to utilize their own processes to determine if their vehicles are ready to operate without drivers.

It is a rule that expedites the entire approval process, keeping agencies out of a usually long, lengthy, and frustrating task that is essential to technological advancements. It essentially means Tesla can launch commercial Robotaxi operations at this point.

On the very same day, Tesla continued the momentum as CEO Elon Musk shared a video of Cybercab units autonomously driving off the property at Gigafactory Texas. This is a major step in the story of the Cybercab.

Mass production of the Cybercab started at Giga Texas in April, and it is already heading out of the factory on its own.

These two major events mark a drastic step forward in Tesla’s progress toward Cybercab and the permissions it needs to operate a self-driving ride-hailing service. Tesla is now able to operate autonomously under Texas law by self-certifying, and with the potentially imminent rollout of Cybercab, Tesla’s autonomous dreams are starting to take serious shape.

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Elon Musk

The Tesla and SpaceX merger everyone is talking about is quietly building

Tesla and SpaceX may be closer to merging than Wall Street or either company is admitting.

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Elon Musk has reportedly discussed merging Tesla and SpaceX with people close to him, according to CNBC, which cited sources familiar with the conversation. Tesla employees have long expected such a transaction and the topic is openly discussed internally, according to internal sources. With SpaceX is days away from kicking off its Wall Street roadshow for what could be the largest IPO in market history, this would be the first time the company will have public market currency to execute a stock-for-stock deal with Tesla.

The financial logic for a merger would make sense. A combined SpaceX and Tesla would create a conglomerate spanning rockets, satellites, electric vehicles, AI infrastructure, and energy storage valued at roughly $3.35 trillion to $3.6 trillion based on SpaceX’s IPO target range and Tesla’s current market capitalization. The two companies are already more intertwined than most people realize. SpaceX bought $697 million worth of Tesla Megapack systems for xAI data centers and $131 million worth of Cybertrucks. Tesla invested $2 billion in xAI, which subsequently merged with SpaceX. Past transactions also include Tesla selling solar equipment and parts to SpaceX, and SpaceX helping with Cybertruck materials.

Will Tesla join the fold? Predicting a triple merger with SpaceX and xAI

Musk himself signaled where this was heading in November 2025 when he posted on X, “My companies are, surprisingly in some ways, trending towards convergence.” Tesla and SpaceX announced a joint semiconductor fabrication facility in Austin called Terafab on the Gigafactory Texas campus, covering two advanced chip factories, with one serving Tesla’s AI needs for vehicles and Optimus robots, the other targeting space-based data centers under SpaceX’s infrastructure vision.

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives places the probability of a merger at 80% to 90% with a target completion in the first half of 2027. The mechanics of a deal became possible the moment SpaceX filed its S-1. Legal experts said a merger likely would not spark antitrust issues but would raise concerns among shareholders in each company, with questions around which company would be the parent, how a stock swap would take place, and who determines the appropriate price. Musk holds about 20% of Tesla’s equity but controls 85.1% of SpaceX’s voting power through a super-voting share class, meaning he would largely be negotiating the terms with himself.

Elon Musk explains why he cannot be fired from SpaceX

Not everyone is convinced the timing is imminent. Traders on Kalshi place only 33% odds that a merger will happen before May 2027. The more immediate concern for Tesla shareholders is whether the SpaceX IPO pulls capital and Musk’s attention away from Tesla before any merger consolidates the upside for both.

What is clear is that the structural groundwork is already being laid. The Terafab announcement, the xAI merger, the shared supply chain, the cross-company balance sheet transactions, and now the IPO all point in the same direction. Whether the merger follows in 2027 or later, the two companies are already operating more like divisions of a single entity than independent competitors.

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