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NASA says “nothing has changed” as US astronaut prepares to ride Russian spacecraft
An official Russian video posted on Twitter has fueled rampant speculation that the country’s beleaguered space agency intends to abandon NASA astronaut Mark Vande Hei on the International Space Station.
On March 5th, a Russian state news outlet “RIA Novosti” shared a video on Twitter that depicted Mark Vande Hei being left on the Internation Space Station, rather than departing on board the Russian Soyuz spacecraft as planned. The video was just the latest example of growing tension between Russia and the rest of the world as sanctions for the illegal invasion of Ukraine and some of the country’s own responses to those sanctions have rapidly severed many of its ties to the international space industry. So far, Russia has terminated commercial Soyuz launch operations at the European Space Agency’s launch site in Kourou, French Guiana, effectively stolen several rockets already purchased by satellite internet company OneWeb, and cut-off sales and support for Russian rocket engines used in two US rockets.
As a result, the future of the International Space Station (ISS) has never felt less certain. In recent days, these concerns have grown exponentially as many news outlets began to report on purported concerns that Vande Hei would be abandoned on the ISS.
Dmitry Rogozin, the director-general of the Russian federal space agency Roscosmos, has also been posting a number of increasingly chaotic tweets claiming that Western sanctions will “destroy their International Space Station partnership” and making threats about potential catastrophes that could unfold on the ISS without Russian contributions.
Despite these claims, NASA has reassured the public that “operations have not changed at all”.
Vande Hei is scheduled to depart from the ISS later this month aboard a Russian Soyuz spacecraft with cosmonauts Anton Shkaplerov and Petr Dubrov, ultimately touching down in Kazakhstan. However, even if Russia were to decide to leave Van Hei aboard the space station, he would not be “stranded”. Three American astronauts – Raja Chari, Kayla Barron, and Thomas Marshburn remain aboard the ISS along with German ESA astronaut Matthias Maurer. Additionally, thanks entirely to SpaceX, NASA has its own domestic transportation to and from the ISS in the form of Crew Dragon. In theory, it’s possible that NASA’s current ISS crew could somehow modify Crew Dragon to return five – not four – astronauts to Earth, allowing Vande Hei to extract himself from a tense political conundrum.
However, that may not be possible in such a short time frame, as SpaceX would need to find a way to add a fifth seat to Dragon and figure out how to accommodate Vande Hei’s Russian spacesuit. That work could easily take weeks or months to safely complete, potentially forcing Mark to stay in space for at least another half a year to return to Earth with Crew-4 instead of Crew-3. Even then, Crew-4 is scheduled to launch just one month from now, so even that alternative may not be a viable.
Regardless, given the unprovoked, irrational, and increasingly brutal nature of Russia’s second invasion of Ukraine, Russia’s international spaceflight partnerships have never been more unstable. While unlikely, it’s possible that Rogozin or Putin himself could choose to end the ISS partnership altogether, though there is a great deal of ambiguity as to whether either ISS ‘segment’ could survive on its own. Thankfully, NASA has partial alternatives to some of the services the Russian ISS segment has provided. Northrup Grumman’s Cygnus spacecraft intends to perform the first Western ISS reboost maneuver later this year. Russia has been almost exclusively responsible for ISS reboosting and maneuvering over the two-decade life of the station.
Meanwhile, in spite of the circumstances, Vande Hei is still on track to break the American record for the longest continuous stay in space, beating out NASA astronaut Scott Kelly’s 340-day streak by about two weeks. NASA associate space operations administrator Kathy Lueders stated in a press conference that NASA “[is] getting ready for Mark to return, and all of the normal operations are in place for that for us to be able to do that”.
Once on the ground in Kazakhstan, Vande Hei will be met by a team of NASA personnel tasked with bringing the astronaut back to Houston, Texas. He will then start the recovery process after living in microgravity for almost a full year.
SpaceX confirmed the date of Starship’s 15th launch window with some massive ambitions for the mission, as it will attempt to catch Ship for the first time.
CEO Elon Musk confirmed during SpaceX’s Earnings Call last night on October 20 that it would launch Starship for its 15th test flight in November, and there are some incredible things the company wants to try, making it perhaps the most groundbreaking launch in the program’s history.
SpaceX delivers blockbuster Q3 results as Super Intelligence segment booms
The most major development of the call was SpaceX’s intention to catch Ship alongside catching the Super Heavy Booster, something that has happened in the past. SpaceX showed an animation of the Ship catch, which will be done on the launch tower’s chopsticks:
SpaceX has released a new Starship tower catch animation for the upcoming Flight 15! https://t.co/kStn01Da8u
— Truthful🛰️ (@Truthful_ast) October 20, 2026
This monumental goal is to catch both the Ship and Booster in a dual-catch scenario, an incredible feat since SpaceX has never been able to reuse a Ship after launch. Musk said it would be “the first time that an orbital launch vehicle has been fully recovered,” and said it would be a “profound technology milestone.”
Musk said the odds of success on this first Ship catch attempt are “more likely than not,” but SpaceX is ultimately prepared for more tries moving forward. The SpaceX frontman said that, starting next year, Starship would have a “steady stream” of flights through the end of the year.
The cadence will accelerate in 2027, with Musk stating the company plans to target weekly flights in the first half of 2027 and twice-weekly by year-end.
The Flight 15 attempt follows that of Flight 14, which took off in late September and was Starship’s first orbital mission. It deployed 26 Starlink V3 satellites, accomplished a controlled ocean splashdown of both stages, and shed more light on potential challenges for the program moving forward.
As of now, the Starship program is firing on all cylinders.
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Wall Street analysts rapidly raised price targets on SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) after the company reported a bullish third quarter for 2026 following the market close on October 20. Shares were sent sharply higher in after-hours and premarket trading.
SpaceX posted revenue of $14.6 billion, a 161 percent year-over-year increase that comfortably topped consensus estimates, which fell near $12.7 billion. The company also posted a net profit of $4.4 billion from a prior-year loss, with adjusted EBITDA reaching $8.8 billion.
More price target movement:
🚀 Cantor Fitzgerald lifted its target to $345 from $246 (Overweight).
🚀 Barclays raised its target to $300 from $254 (Overweight).
🚀 Citi increased its target to $240 from $200 (Buy),
🚀 UBS moved to $230 from $210 (Buy)
🚀TD Cowen raised its target to $224 from $200 (Buy).
🚀Morgan Stanley held an Overweight rating with a $300 target.
🚀Other firms also adjusted higher, including Wells Fargo (to $274 from $214) and Clear Street (to $248 from $217). Analysts broadly cited the strong quarterly print, accelerating AI compute expansion, Starlink progress, and Starship milestones as drivers of higher long-term growth and earnings power.— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) October 21, 2026
Its Super Intelligence (AI) division generated roughly $7.6 billion and became the largest revenue contributor, growing nearly 830 percent year-over-year, while the Connectivity segment delivered $5.2 billion on strong subscriber additions that lifted the consumer base to 13.6 million for Starlink.
The Earnings Call proved especially catalytic, as CEO Elon Musk and CFO Bret Johnsen outlined Q1 2027 revenue guidance of $33 billion to $37 billion, which was far above the roughly $22 billion analysts had modeled, alongside fourth-quarter capital-expenditure plans of $35 billion to $40 billion focused on AI compute infrastructure at sites including Memphis and Southaven.
SpaceX delivers blockbuster Q3 results as Super Intelligence segment booms
Management targets 2.5 to 3 gigawatts of nameplate compute capacity by year-end and discussed pathways to 13 gigawatts or more by the end of 2027. Musk described relentless demand from hyperscalers and other customers, with compute pricing supporting payback periods of less than a year and potentially as short as six months.
Additional highlights included Starship’s recent orbital success and V3 satellite deployment, Starlink pricing and enterprise momentum, rapid Grok Bot adoption, spectrum expansion plans, and the formation of special committees to explore a possible combination with Tesla.
These elements prompted a wave of price-target increases:
- JPMorgan more than doubled its target to $500 from $240 while maintaining an Overweight rating.
- Cantor Fitzgerald lifted its target to $345 from $246 (Overweight).
- Barclays raised its target to $300 from $254 (Overweight).
- Citi increased its target to $240 from $200 (Buy),
- UBS moved to $230 from $210 (Buy), and
- TD Cowen raised its target to $224 from $200 (Buy).
- Morgan Stanley held an Overweight rating with a $300 target.
- Other firms also adjusted higher, including Wells Fargo (to $274 from $214) and Clear Street (to $248 from $217). Analysts broadly cited the strong quarterly print, accelerating AI compute expansion, Starlink progress, and Starship milestones as drivers of higher long-term growth and earnings power.
Shares, which closed at $147.79 on October 20, jumped roughly 8 percent in early premarket trading on October 21 as investors digested the results and the newly elevated Street targets.
The average analyst price target has moved higher, which reflects greater conviction in SpaceX’s trajectory across launch, connectivity, and the Super Intelligence business, even as elevated spending remains a point of focus.
Elon Musk
SpaceX showcases exactly how it plans to catch Starship next month
SpaceX played a new Starship Flight 15 simulation showing the ship caught by tower chopsticks.
SpaceX gave its clearest look yet at how it plans to catch a Starship upper stage, playing a roughly 80 second animation of the maneuver during its third quarter earnings webcast on Tuesday. The clip ran under an “Up Next: Ship Catch” banner moments after Elon Musk confirmed that Flight 15, expected next month, will try to catch both the Super Heavy booster and the ship with the launch tower.
The animation opens at ground level, looking up through the launch mount at a tower with its chopstick arms spread wide. It then cuts to the ship gliding back through the atmosphere in its horizontal belly flop position, with its forward and aft flaps steering the descent. A wide shot from the Starbase shoreline follows, where the ship is a small dot in the sky before it swings vertical and drops toward the launch towers. The final shots show the ship sliding down past the top of the tower, a close view of the hardware along its side meeting the arms, and the vehicle hanging in the chopsticks.
SpaceX has released a new Starship tower catch animation for the upcoming Flight 15! https://t.co/kStn01Da8u — Truthful🛰️ (@Truthful_ast) October 20, 2026
Musk called the catch the step that closes Starship’s reuse loop. “If we succeed, it will be the first time that an orbital launch vehicle has been fully recovered,” he said. He put the odds of success on the first attempt at “more likely than not,” and said SpaceX has “a steady stream of Starship flight attempts through the end of this year” if Flight 15 falls short.
The sequence mirrors work SpaceX has already done with real hardware. In September, Ship 42, the vehicle assigned to Flight 15, was lifted by the Pad 2 chopsticks into a simulated catch position, where crews cycled the arms and connected the ship quick disconnect arm while it hung from the tower. NASASpaceflight has since reported that SpaceX removed Ship 42’s engines before its static fire and sent it back for another cryogenic test.
Gwynne Shotwell covered the regulatory side on the same call. After what she called “significant constructive engagement with the FAA,” SpaceX expects the Flight 15 license “to include return to launch site and tower catch for both stages.” Bringing the ship home means reentering toward land instead of the open ocean, which Musk said in February would only happen once the chance of the ship breaking up over land was very low, after two perfect soft landings at sea.
SpaceX has caught Super Heavy with the tower three times, on Flights 5, 7 and 8, but the ship returns from orbit at far higher speed and has never been caught. Flight 14 on September 28 was the first Starship to reach orbit, and it deployed 26 Starlink V3 satellites before splashing down, a mission SpaceX counted as its first revenue flight in the Q3 results it reported Tuesday.
The timing lines up with what Musk told the crowd at Giga Texas earlier this month, when he said Flight 15 would probably launch a little before Thanksgiving and that Flight 16 could refly both stages. On Tuesday’s call he went further, saying Starship should fly weekly at some point in the first half of 2027 and twice weekly or more by the end of next year as SpaceX works toward landing a rocket and launching it again with no refurbishment.
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