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SpaceX’s next step towards airplane-like Falcon 9 reusability expected in 2018
Speaking at an impromptu IAC 2018 talk, Vice President of Build and Flight Reliability Hans Koenigsmann confirmed earlier this month that SpaceX is aiming to conduct its first triple reuse of a Falcon 9 booster before the year is out.
While not entirely confident on the specific mission it would end up flying on, Koenigsmann floated the company’s next Vandenberg, CA launch – Spaceflight Industry’s SSO-A rideshare – as a prime candidate, tentatively targeting November 19th.
As of November 19th, only two Falcon 9 Block 5 boosters will be candidates for a third reuse – B1046 and B1048. Falcon 9 B1048 launched for the second time just days ago, placing Earth observation satellite SAOCOM 1A in orbit before performing the first return-to-launch-site (RTLS) recovery on the West Coast, also marking the debut of SpaceX’s long-dormant LZ-4 landing zone. Aside from playing a role in one of the most spectacular launch-related light shows ever created, B1048 is noteworthy for being SpaceX’s second-fastest Falcon 9 booster turnaround, taking just 74 days to go from its first launch and landing to its second operational use.
While B1046 – launched first on May 11th and again on August 7th – will have had more than three months of potential refurbishment by SSO-A’s Nov. 19 launch target, both of its two launches involved relatively high-energy profiles with heavy payloads, resulting in higher (and thus more damaging) heating during reentry. B1048, on the other hand, has launched a heavy set of 10 Iridium NEXT satellites into a low-energy orbit and then launched the much lighter SAOCOM 1A spacecraft into an equally low orbit, translating to much more forgiving reentries and thus much easier refurbishment.
Later at IAC 2018, Hans spoke in more detail about the leading challenges facing SpaceX in this relatively mature stage of reusable rocketry optimization. Most notably, he seemed to imply that the most difficult aspect of refurbishing Falcon 9 boosters was damage caused to its nine Merlin 1D engines while taking the brunt of Falcon 9’s reentry inertia, not hugely surprising given the awkward geometry and sheer force behind a booster traveling more than 2000 meters per second.
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- Falcon 9 Block 5 completed its first launch on May 11, carrying the Bangabandhu-1 communications satellite to geostationary transfer orbit. (Tom Cross)
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- It’s currently unclear whether B1046 or B1048 will become the first SpaceX rocket to fly three times. (Tom Cross)
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- Falcon 9 B1048 returned to Port of Los Angeles aboard drone ship Just Read The Instructions after its first launch. July 27. (Pauline Acalin)
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- Falcon 9 B1048.2 landed at LZ-4 after its second successful launch. (SpaceX)
It’s possible that SpaceX will set B1046 up as the pathfinder for all future reusability milestones, including the 3rd, 4th, and 5th booster flights and beyond. However, B1048 may well be in better condition, is already directly stationed at its refurbishment facility, and will have another relatively low-energy launch ahead of it if assigned to SSO-A. Critically, flying for the third time on SSO-A – as few as 43 days after its second orbital launch – will require B1048 to break SpaceX’s record for faster Falcon 9 booster turnaround by more than 50%, despite the fact that it would have two full operational missions under its belt.
It may sound more mundane than other crowning SpaceX achievements, particularly with the focus on numbers that might seem arbitrary and unimportant at first glance, but it’s actually difficult to overstate just how important the third reuse of a Falcon 9 booster is, particularly if that pathfinder happens to break refurbishment records at the same time.
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SpaceX’s ultimate goal is to build and launch rockets with airplane-like reusability and reliability, eventually flying boosters and other components upwards of 100-1000 times each, and the jump from two flights per core to three will be the best evidence yet that the company is making rapid progress in that direction.
For prompt updates, on-the-ground perspectives, and unique glimpses of SpaceX’s rocket recovery fleet check out our brand new LaunchPad and LandingZone newsletters!
SpaceX’s massive investment in AI will make it a big winner, Argus Research said after the company’s successful earnings call last week.
The firm also upgraded shares to a Buy from Hold and set a $160 price target.
SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) is currently recovering from its heavy AI infrastructure investments, as it spent nearly $16 billion in Q2 alone. The company did this primarily by monetizing high-demand GPU compute capacity at a much faster pace than traditional data center economics would suggest.
Company CFO Bret Johnsen said that SpaceX would be able to pay back anything on new deployments within a year.
There are plenty of ways the company can do this:
Leasing excess compute capacity through contracts
SpaceX has already built Colossus and Colossus II, largely for its own model training. However, much of that capacity is already rented out to third parties. It already has major deals with Anthropic, Google, and Reflection AI. These partnerships are adding billions per month to SpaceX’s spreadsheet.
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High utilization driven by industry-wide scarcity
The demand for advanced AI training and inference capacity continues to exceed what is available for use. SpaceX can fill new racks quickly after they come online, so the capital deployed converts into revenue with minimal idle time.
Additionally, management and outside observers have described the new compute capital as behaving more like a cost-of-goods-sold than traditional multi-year capex, especially because of this rapid monetization pattern.
Capacity has already scaled from ~0.4 GW a year to 1.4 GW annually by the end of Q2. There are targets of more than 2 GW by year-end.
High incremental margins on the rental business once capacity is online
GPU cloud providers often operate at strong gross margins. SpaceX can monetize capacity that was already partially built or can be added efficiently. This means that incremental EBITDA margins on the rental revenue are usually high. This accelerates cash recovery relative to the gross capital outlay.
Parallel monetization of its own AI software and applications
Beyond pure infrastructure rental, SpaceX also generates revenue from Grok through subscriptions and usage, from X through ads, data, and other related services, enterprise APIs, and the planned integration of the Cursor coding tools acquisition.
These application layers ride on the same compute infrastructure and provide additional high-margin streams that could offset build-out costs. AI-segment revenue overall rose sharply to about $2.6 billion in Q2, according to Motley Fool. This was driven primarily by the infrastructure contracts, but the software side is also partially responsible.
Efficient, large-scale deployment and vertical integration advantages
SpaceX has emphasized the rapid construction of power and cooling infrastructure and favorable cost-per-megawatt economics relative to industry benchmarks in some disclosures.
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Combined with its ability to scale capacity aggressively and the fact that many contracts start generating revenue within months of capacity coming online, the effective payback compresses dramatically compared with more conventional multi-year data-center projects.
SpaceX’s dominant near-term recovery path will turn the AI clusters into a hyperscale-style compute rental business for other leading AI companies while still using a portion for internal models.
Tesla headlights have caused a recall of over 20,000 of the company’s two most popular vehicles, the Model 3 and Model Y, due to the low-beam bulb exceeding the maximum allowed intensity according to federal standards.
Tesla initiated the recall with the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) this morning, stating that the low-beam output “exceeds the maximum allowed intensity in the outer upper-right and outer upper-left areas of the 10U and 90U zone, as prescribed in FMVSS No. 108.”
Tesla sourced the impacted headlights from Marelli Automotive Lighting, a Mexico-based company. The recall impacts 2020-2023 Model Y vehicles and 2017-2023 Model 3 vehicles. It is estimated that every VIN in this recall is impacted by the defect.
🚨 Tesla is recalling 20,349 2020-23 Model Y vehicles and 2017-23 Model 3 vehicles due to an excessively bright headlamp low beam.
Currently, there is no remedy plan in place, as it is still being developed. pic.twitter.com/y34cIO2U0B
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) August 11, 2026
Typically, Tesla would remedy recalls of this nature through an Over-the-Air software update, which has been a major focus of criticism by the company and its supporters because the NHTSA still refers to it as a “recall,” even though it requires no action by the vehicle owner. The fix is shipped over the internet and downloaded to the car.
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However, there appears to be a potentially different solution for this problem. Tesla has not developed a remedy for this issue, so it could potentially be on the way. The big issue appears to be the fact that these recalled lamps are out of production, and this is an old body style for both vehicles. The headlights and front-end designs are completely different.
Tesla switched to another supplier when the affected headlight design was discontinued. It plans to begin notifying owners of their remedy options by September 15.
Tesla filed a petition protesting the recall to fix the vehicles’ headlight issue, but the NHTSA denied it. Now, Tesla will come up with a solution to fix it.
Elon Musk
Another Tesla SpaceX merger prediction by ARK Invest has Elon Musk talking
Elon Musk again denies a Tesla China split as new SpaceX merger speculation resurfaces quickly.
Elon Musk restated that Tesla has no plans to separate its China business from the rest of the company, responding to a new round of merger speculation from ARK Invest.
On the firm’s “Brainstorm” podcast, Cathie Wood’s team, including chief futurist Brett Winton and research director Nick Grous, argued a Tesla and SpaceX combination remains likely, with an announcement possible before the end of the year even if the deal itself would not close that quickly. Winton called Tesla’s Shanghai operations a “small ish wrinkle” for a merger rather than a real obstacle, since SpaceX’s national security work with the U.S. government sits uneasily next to Tesla’s manufacturing base in China.
Musk pushed back on the framing directly. “China is awesome. I strongly encourage people to visit,” he wrote on X. He also repeated language he first used in late July, when the Wall Street Journal reported that Tesla executives had been told to prepare for a possible spinoff, sale, or closure of the China business ahead of a SpaceX tie up. Musk called that report “absurdly fake news” at the time, adding that a separation had “never even come up in a discussion ever,” a line he echoed again this week.
The repeated denial has not settled the underlying question, because Shanghai’s role in Tesla’s business is exactly what makes a merger complicated. Gigafactory Shanghai still ships more than half of Tesla’s global deliveries and functions as the company’s main export hub for Europe and Asia. Teslarati previously reported on Musk’s initial denial, and the merger conversation itself has been building since SpaceX’s IPO gave it public shares to use as acquisition currency.
Wedbush’s Dan Ives has pegged the odds of a Tesla SpaceX merger at 80 to 90 percent by early 2027, and ARK’s prediction of a year end announcement adds another data point to that timeline, even as Musk keeps rejecting the specific mechanics reporters have described. Neither position rules out the other. Musk can deny a China spinoff was ever discussed while analysts still expect some form of combination to move forward, since ARK and Ives are both describing convergence at the corporate level, not necessarily the internal restructuring the Journal described in July.
For now, Tesla’s China business remains intact, and Musk’s comments this week make clear he has no interest in publicly walking that position back, no matter how often the merger question resurfaces.
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SpaceX AI investment gamble will make it a big winner, firm says
Tesla headlights cause recall of over 20,000 Model 3 and Model Y
