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SpaceX gears up for busiest April yet
SpaceX says it’s finished encapsulating 40 spacecraft inside a Falcon 9 rocket’s payload fairing, paving the way for the company’s fourth Transporter rideshare mission early next month.
Scheduled to lift off no earlier than 12:24 pm EDT (16:24 UTC) on Friday, April 1st, Transporter-4 will be the first of as many as six Falcon 9 launches in April. In fact, SpaceX actually wants to launch all but one of those six missions in the first 19 days of the month – tying its existing cadence record if the company can pull it off.
SpaceX managed to complete a record five orbital Falcon 9 launches in ~18.5 days in December 2021. Including one additional mission in late November, SpaceX actually launched six times in 27 days. The company then nearly repeated that record the very next month, launching six times in 28 days in January and February 2022. SpaceX has yet to literally launch six times in the same month but it’s already more than demonstrated the ability to do so if the timing is right.
April might be that month. Following Transporter-4, SpaceX has two Crew Dragon missions – Axiom-1 with four private astronauts and Crew-4 with four government astronauts – scheduled to launch from Kennedy Space Center Pad 39A on April 6th and April 19th. In the middle, SpaceX intends to launch Starlink 4-14 – the month’s only planned Starlink mission – on April 14th. On April 15th, SpaceX is scheduled to launch the National Reconnaissance Office’s (NRO) NROL-85 spy satellite out of California’s Vandenberg Space Force Base. Finally, SpaceX could launch Egypt’s Nilesat 301 geostationary communications satellite on April 30th.
While it won’t break its internal cadence record, April should continue to demonstrate that five or six launches in one month are increasingly becoming the norm for SpaceX – not just some one-off feat requiring an extraordinary effort. That’s made even more clear by the fact that three of April’s launches will either be carrying humans or military spy satellites – both requiring the utmost care and explicit approval from two of SpaceX’s strictest customers.
Curiously, SpaceX has decided to recover Transporter-4’s Falcon 9 booster at sea despite a relatively small payload of just 40 satellites, likely meaning that the mission will require the rocket’s upper stage to perform at least three or four burns in orbit. One payload in particular – Germany’s EnMAP Earth observation satellite – both weighs far more than any other satellite aboard (~900 kg or ~2000 lb) and will likely take precedence, meaning that it will probably be delivered to a very specific orbit at the end of the mission’s deployment sequence.
Extra burns and longer coasts in orbit require significantly more propellant, which quickly cuts into the unforgiving margins needed for return-to-launch-site (RTLS) Falcon booster landings. In April, only NROL-85 will permit an RTLS landing, meaning that all five other launches will need to share SpaceX’s two East Coast drone ships – not impossible but far from easy. SpaceX’s record drone ship turnaround time is 13 days, while Starlink 4-14 will require a 13-day turnaround and Crew-4 a 14-day turnaround almost simultaneously.
Elon Musk
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, analyst says
“We think the key focus from here will be how fast Tesla can scale driverless operations (including if Tesla’s approach to software/hardware allows it to scale significantly faster than competitors, as the company has argued), and on profitability.”
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, Mark Delaney of Goldman Sachs says.
Tesla is in the process of rolling out its Robotaxi platform to areas outside of Austin and the California Bay Area. It has plans to launch in five additional cities, including Houston, Dallas, Miami, Las Vegas, and Phoenix.
However, the company’s expansion is not what the focus needs to be, according to Delaney. It’s the speed of deployment.
The analyst said:
“We think the key focus from here will be how fast Tesla can scale driverless operations (including if Tesla’s approach to software/hardware allows it to scale significantly faster than competitors, as the company has argued), and on profitability.”
Profitability will come as the Robotaxi fleet expands. Making that money will be dependent on when Tesla can initiate rides in more areas, giving more customers access to the program.
There are some additional things that the company needs to make happen ahead of the major Robotaxi expansion, one of those things is launching driverless rides in Austin, the first city in which it launched the program.
This week, Tesla started testing driverless Robotaxi rides in Austin, as two different Model Y units were spotted with no occupants, a huge step in the company’s plans for the ride-sharing platform.
Tesla Robotaxi goes driverless as Musk confirms Safety Monitor removal testing
CEO Elon Musk has been hoping to remove Safety Monitors from Robotaxis in Austin for several months, first mentioning the plan to have them out by the end of 2025 in September. He confirmed on Sunday that Tesla had officially removed vehicle occupants and started testing truly unsupervised rides.
Although Safety Monitors in Austin have been sitting in the passenger’s seat, they have still had the ability to override things in case of an emergency. After all, the ultimate goal was safety and avoiding any accidents or injuries.
Goldman Sachs reiterated its ‘Neutral’ rating and its $400 price target. Delaney said, “Tesla is making progress with its autonomous technology,” and recent developments make it evident that this is true.
Investor's Corner
Tesla gets bold Robotaxi prediction from Wall Street firm
Last week, Andrew Percoco took over Tesla analysis for Morgan Stanley from Adam Jonas, who covered the stock for years. Percoco seems to be less optimistic and bullish on Tesla shares, while still being fair and balanced in his analysis.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) received a bold Robotaxi prediction from Morgan Stanley, which anticipates a dramatic increase in the size of the company’s autonomous ride-hailing suite in the coming years.
Last week, Andrew Percoco took over Tesla analysis for Morgan Stanley from Adam Jonas, who covered the stock for years. Percoco seems to be less optimistic and bullish on Tesla shares, while still being fair and balanced in his analysis.
Percoco dug into the Robotaxi fleet and its expansion in the coming years in his latest note, released on Tuesday. The firm expects Tesla to increase the Robotaxi fleet size to 1,000 vehicles in 2026. However, that’s small-scale compared to what they expect from Tesla in a decade.
Tesla expands Robotaxi app access once again, this time on a global scale
By 2035, Morgan Stanley believes there will be one million Robotaxis on the road across multiple cities, a major jump and a considerable fleet size. We assume this means the fleet of vehicles Tesla will operate internally, and not including passenger-owned vehicles that could be added through software updates.
He also listed three specific catalysts that investors should pay attention to, as these will represent the company being on track to achieve its Robotaxi dreams:
- Opening Robotaxi to the public without a Safety Monitor. Timing is unclear, but it appears that Tesla is getting closer by the day.
- Improvement in safety metrics without the Safety Monitor. Tesla’s ability to improve its safety metrics as it scales miles driven without the Safety Monitor is imperative as it looks to scale in new states and cities in 2026.
- Cybercab start of production, targeted for April 2026. Tesla’s Cybercab is a purpose-built vehicle (no steering wheel or pedals, only two seats) that is expected to be produced through its state-of-the-art unboxed manufacturing process, offering further cost reductions and thus accelerating adoption over time.
Robotaxi stands to be one of Tesla’s most significant revenue contributors, especially as the company plans to continue expanding its ride-hailing service across the world in the coming years.
Its current deployment strategy is controlled and conservative to avoid any drastic and potentially program-ruining incidents.
So far, the program, which is active in Austin and the California Bay Area, has been widely successful.
News
Tesla Model Y L is gaining momentum in China’s premium segment
This suggests that the addition of the Model Y L to Tesla China’s lineup will not result in a case of cannibalization, but a possible case of “premiumization” instead.
Tesla’s domestic sales in China held steady in November with around 73,000 units delivered, but a closer look at the Model Y L’s numbers hints at an emerging shift towards pricier variants that could very well be boosting average selling prices and margins.
This suggests that the addition of the Model Y L to Tesla China’s lineup will not result in a case of cannibalization, but a possible case of “premiumization” instead.
Tesla China’s November domestic numbers
Data from the a Passenger Car Association (CPCA) indicated that Tesla China saw domestic deliveries of about 73,000 vehicles in November 2025. This number included 34,000 standard Model Y units, 26,000 Model 3 units, and 13,000 Model Y L units, as per industry watchers.
This means that the Model Y L accounted for roughly 27% of Tesla China’s total Model Y sales, despite the variant carrying a ~28% premium over the base RWD Model Y that is estimated to have dominated last year’s mix.
As per industry watcher @TSLAFanMtl, this suggests that Tesla China’s sales have moved towards more premium variants this year. Thus, direct year-over-year sales comparisons might miss the bigger picture. This is true even for the regular Model Y, as another premium trim, the Long Range RWD variant, was also added to the lineup this 2025.
November 2025 momentum
While Tesla China’s overall sales this year have seen challenges, the Model Y and Model 3 have remained strong sellers in the country. This is especially impressive as the Model Y and Model 3 are premium-priced vehicles, and they compete in the world’s most competitive electric vehicle market. Tesla China is also yet to roll out the latest capabilities of FSD in China, which means that its vehicles in the country could not tap into their latest capabilities yet.
Aggregated results from November suggest that the Tesla Model Y took the crown as China’s #1 best-selling SUV during the month, with roughly 34,000 deliveries. With the Model Y L, this number is even higher. The Tesla Model 3 also had a stellar month, seeing 25,700 deliveries during November 2025.
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, analyst says
Tesla gets bold Robotaxi prediction from Wall Street firm
