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SpaceX CEO Elon Musk says “overdue” Starship update is coming soon
CEO Elon Musk says he may finally present the first cohesive update on SpaceX’s next-generation Starship rocket development program in more than two years.
While Musk routinely makes Starship-focused appearances and comments in public or by webcast every 3-6 months, there is a certain brand of update – along the lines of a high-profile tech product reveal – that the SpaceX CEO has only presented four times since Starship’s predecessor was first revealed in September 2016. Accompanied by a relatively detailed slide deck, the four main updates he’s given have provided a large amount of background on the status of Starship development and a variety of next steps – ranging from near-term plans to targets still a decade or more in the future.
Musk has not provided an explicit Starship update in 2020 or 2021. Generally speaking, in the more minor events he’s semi-regularly attended over the last two years, the SpaceX CEO will give a brief overview (sometimes clearly prepared; sometimes not) to a miscellaneous audience that usually isn’t the most familiar with Starship, usually resulting in a great deal of tried and true broad-strokes talking points with a few new details mixed in. Finally, the audience – while undoubtedly well-meaning – asks a number of questions, the vast majority of which have already been asked and answered or could be with Google and a few minutes of basic research.
As with Musk’s (un)prepared remarks, there are usually a few gems of new information left to be found in the rough. The end result: the only true Starship updates are those organized by SpaceX itself with an informed audience and a thoroughly prepared presentation and talking points.
Put a slightly different way, SpaceX has yet to provide a 2016-2019-style Starship presentation since the company actually began building and testing prototypes that approach the final orbital-class ship and booster designs. In those two years, SpaceX has made a truly surreal amount of progress, more or less completing a new prototype every month and flying one of those prototypes every 3-4 months. Most recently, SpaceX completed and static fired a Super Heavy booster prototype, completed and repeatedly static fired the first orbital-class Starship prototype, finished two more Super Heavy boosters, and is on the verge of preparing one of those boosters for the first thorough Super Heavy qualification testing.
If things move in SpaceX’s favor, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) could complete an environmental assessment later this month and approve a license for the first one or several orbital Starship launch attempts in early 2022. SpaceX has already begun rapidly building two more orbital-class Starship prototypes and will soon have as many as three ships and two boosters ready for proof testing and an imminent series of orbital test flights. After four successful static fires, one of which fired up all six Raptor engines for the first time, Starship S20 is effectively ready for flight whenever Super Heavy Booster 4 (B4) follows suit.
In short, there are a nearly limitless number of activities and plans that Musk could shed a great deal of light on in an official update presentation. Per Musk, the CEO wants to provide that update as early as December 2021 but no later than January 2022. It’s hard to say if he will actually follow through: more than a year ago, Musk promised a Starship update in October 2020, and that’s not the only time in the last two years that the CEO has stated that he’d present a new update soon. It’s possible that Musk is waiting on a specific Starbase hardware milestone before presenting his long-awaited update – perhaps the completion of Super Heavy B4 qualification testing or the next full-stack milestone, in which Starship S20 (now proofed and ready for flight) will be installed on top of the booster for the second time.
Elon Musk
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX has issued an initial statement about Starship Booster 18’s anomaly early Friday. The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX’s initial comment
As per SpaceX in a post on its official account on social media platform X, Booster 18 was undergoing gas system pressure tests when the anomaly happened. Despite the nature of the incident, the company emphasized that no propellant was loaded, no engines were installed, and personnel were kept at a safe distance from the booster, resulting in zero injuries.
“Booster 18 suffered an anomaly during gas system pressure testing that we were conducting in advance of structural proof testing. No propellant was on the vehicle, and engines were not yet installed. The teams need time to investigate before we are confident of the cause. No one was injured as we maintain a safe distance for personnel during this type of testing. The site remains clear and we are working plans to safely reenter the site,” SpaceX wrote in its post on X.
Incident and aftermath
Livestream footage from LabPadre showed Booster 18’s lower half crumpling around the liquid oxygen tank area at approximately 4:04 a.m. CT. Subsequent images posted by on-site observers revealed extensive deformation across the booster’s lower structure. Needless to say, spaceflight observers have noted that Booster 18 would likely be a complete loss due to its anomaly.
Booster 18 had rolled out only a day earlier and was one of the first vehicles in the Starship V3 program. The V3 series incorporates structural reinforcements and reliability upgrades intended to prepare Starship for rapid-reuse testing and eventual tower-catch operations. Elon Musk has been optimistic about Starship V3, previously noting on X that the spacecraft might be able to complete initial missions to Mars.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
Elon Musk
SpaceX Starship Version 3 booster crumples in early testing
Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
SpaceX’s new Starship first-stage booster, Booster 18, suffered major damage early Friday during its first round of testing in Starbase, Texas, just one day after rolling out of the factory.
Based on videos of the incident, the lower section of the rocket booster appeared to crumple during a pressurization test. Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
Booster test failure
SpaceX began structural and propellant-system verification tests on Booster 18 Thursday night at the Massey’s Test Site, only a few miles from Starbase’s production facilities, as noted in an Ars Technica report. At 4:04 a.m. CT on Friday, a livestream from LabPadre Space captured the booster’s lower half experiencing a sudden destructive event around its liquid oxygen tank section. Post-incident images, shared on X by @StarshipGazer, showed notable deformation in the booster’s lower structure.
Neither SpaceX nor Elon Musk had commented as of Friday morning, but the vehicle’s condition suggests it is likely a complete loss. This is quite unfortunate, as Booster 18 is already part of the Starship V3 program, which includes design fixes and upgrades intended to improve reliability. While SpaceX maintains a rather rapid Starship production line in Starbase, Booster 18 was generally expected to validate the improvements implemented in the V3 program.
Tight deadlines
SpaceX needs Starship boosters and upper stages to begin demonstrating rapid reuse, tower catches, and early operational Starlink missions over the next two years. More critically, NASA’s Artemis program depends on an on-orbit refueling test in the second half of 2026, a requirement for the vehicle’s expected crewed lunar landing around 2028.
While SpaceX is known for diagnosing failures quickly and returning to testing at unmatched speed, losing the newest-generation booster at the very start of its campaign highlights the immense challenge involved in scaling Starship into a reliable, high-cadence launch system. SpaceX, however, is known for getting things done quickly, so it would not be a surprise if the company manages to figure out what happened to Booster 18 in the near future.
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
