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SpaceX’s Crew Dragon spacecraft preps for first Earth splashdown in final challenge

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Just over 12 hours from now, SpaceX’s Crew Dragon spacecraft will complete the last steps of its critical demonstration launch debut (known as DM-1) when it reenters Earth’s atmosphere, deploys four parachutes, and gently splashes down in the Atlantic Ocean.

A flawless entry, descent, and landing would effectively mark Crew Dragon’s debut launch as a textbook success, thoroughly testing the clean-sheet design of nearly all of the new spacecraft’s major systems, short of literally installing its control panel and carrying astronauts along for the ride. While even a flawless DM-1 will still leave a significant amount of work remaining before NASA is likely to permit SpaceX to conduct DM-2, its first launch with NASA astronauts, it’s safe to say that Crew Dragon’s hiccup-free orbital debut will act as a salve for a wide range of internal and external skepticism.

According to sources that spoke anonymously to Ars Technica’s Eric Berger, SpaceX actually suffered an anomaly related to parachutes used to recovery Cargo Dragon in August 2018, following the spacecraft’s successful CRS-15 resupply of the International Space Station. While no details were provided as to the nature of the problems experienced, one or several of the main chutes on CRS-15 may have been the same parachutes designed for Crew Dragon, potentially a major concern for NASA’s Commercial Crew Program certification efforts.

However, whatever the “anomaly” Cargo Dragon suffered during recovery, the capsule was still recovered perfectly intact, as evidenced by photos published by SpaceX and taken by a Teslarati photographer during the spacecraft’s return to land. If the supposed parachute anomaly in no way visibly damaged Cargo Dragon, it’s not out of the question that this is just another minor technical hiccup being blown out of proportion by concern trolls in industry and/or government. There’s no doubt that any and every departure from expected behavior – no matter how minute – should be investigated and accounted for, but there is also a history of that sort of myopia being exploited to bar new entrants into all sorts of industries, aerospace in particular.

A concert of Draco thrusters work to push CRS-15’s twice-flown Cargo Dragon away from the ISS and back towards Earth. (ESA)
SpaceX successfully recovered Dragon Capsule 111 in August 2018 after a second flawless orbital launch in support of the CRS-15 resupply mission. (SpaceX)

Politics and gossip aside, Crew Dragon is set to do what really matters – flight-testing and full-fidelity performance verification – a bit more than 12 hours from now. At 2:31 am EST (07:31 UTC) on March 8th, the spacecraft will undock from the International Space Station (ISS) and begin a series of Draco thruster burns to dip one end of its orbit just inside Earth’s atmosphere. Approximately five and half hours after that, Crew Dragon will complete its final deorbit burn, culminating an hour and fifteen minutes later (give or take) with a nominally successful splashdown in the Atlantic Ocean, another first for a SpaceX spacecraft.

NASA and SpaceX are set to provide live coverage of the milestone undocking, reentry, and splashdown attempt at 2 am EST (07:00 UTC) and again at 7:30 am EST (12:30 UTC). Follow along at the webcast linked below.

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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SpaceX soars with its first launch as a public company, marking a new era

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Credit: SpaceX

SpaceX executed its first Falcon 9 launch since going public on June 15, a routine yet symbolically powerful Starlink mission from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California.

Liftoff of the Falcon 9 booster B1093, on its 14th flight, occurred at approximately 8:34 a.m. PDT from Space Launch Complex 4E (SLC-4E), deploying 24 Starlink V2 Mini Optimized satellites into low-Earth orbit.

The first stage successfully landed on the droneship “Of Course I Still Love You” in the Pacific Ocean, underscoring the company’s unmatched reusability track record.

This mission comes just three days after SpaceX’s historic IPO on June 12, which shattered records as the largest ever. The company raised $75 billion by pricing shares at $135, with trading under ticker SPCX on Nasdaq opening at $150 and closing at $160.95—a 19 percent gain—valuing SpaceX at over $2.1 trillion.

The launch highlights the seamless transition from private innovator to public powerhouse. SpaceX, founded in 2002, has revolutionized access to space with over 650 Falcon 9 flights and a massive Starlink constellation now serving millions globally.

As a public company, it faces new pressures: quarterly earnings, shareholder scrutiny, and expectations to accelerate Starship development for Mars ambitions and deeper NASA partnerships. Yet the market response signals strong confidence in its dominance, as launch costs are slashed by 95 percent, rapid satellite deployment, and a backlog of government and commercial contracts.

SpaceX maintains bold advertising push for Starlink, contrasting Tesla’s minimalistic approach

Analysts view today’s flight as business as usual, but it carries extra weight. With shares volatile in early trading days, successful operations reassure investors that core capabilities remain unaffected by public status.

SpaceX now operates under heightened transparency, potentially unlocking capital for ambitious goals like Starship orbital tests and global broadband expansion.

Challenges loom, including regulatory hurdles for megaconstellations, competition in reusable rockets, and orbital debris concerns. Nevertheless, this morning’s flawless execution reinforces SpaceX’s trajectory.

As Musk often notes, the company’s mission—to make humanity multiplanetary—now aligns with Wall Street’s growth demands. The stars, it seems, are aligning for both.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla and SpaceX’s biggest bull just placed a massive $1B bet on the stock

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Ron Baron on Tesla stock

Renowned investor Ron Baron, founder and CEO of Baron Capital, has once again demonstrated his unwavering faith in Elon Musk’s ventures.

Just after SpaceX’s record-breaking IPO, Baron announced he purchased an additional $1 billion in SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) shares. This move pushes Baron Capital’s total holdings in the company to a staggering $25 billion in market value, underscoring one of the most successful private-to-public investment stories in recent history.

Baron’s relationship with SpaceX dates back to 2017, when his firm began investing approximately $1.75–2 billion through secondary markets and employee tender offers at valuations around $20–22 billion.

By the time of the IPO, which valued SpaceX at over $2 trillion with shares closing near $161, those early stakes had generated more than $13 billion in unrealized gains. Post-IPO, Baron’s position ballooned further, reflecting the company’s meteoric rise driven by reusable rocketry, Starlink’s global satellite internet constellation, Starshield defense applications, and ambitious plans for orbital infrastructure.

In a recent interview, Baron articulated his bullish outlook with characteristic enthusiasm.

“I think we’re going to make hundreds of billions of dollars,” he stated, emphasizing that SpaceX’s achievements in rocketry and satellite technology are “not possible for anyone else to accomplish.” He envisions the company as a cornerstone of humanity’s multi-planetary future, potentially reaching valuations of $10–30 trillion within 10–15 years.

Baron has repeatedly affirmed he has no plans to sell, viewing SpaceX as a “lifetime investment” alongside Tesla.

Tesla bull Ron Baron reveals $100M SpaceX investment, sees 3-5x return on TSLA

This conviction stems from SpaceX’s unparalleled execution. The company has revolutionized access to space with Falcon 9 reusability, deployed thousands of Starlink satellites, and is advancing Starship for Mars missions and point-to-point Earth transport.

Baron highlights emerging opportunities like space-based AI data centers and direct-to-cell satellite connectivity, positioning SpaceX at the forefront of a new space economy projected to generate trillions in value.

Critics may question the lofty projections amid high valuations and execution risks, but Baron’s track record speaks volumes. His Tesla holdings, initiated in the mid-2010s, have also delivered outsized returns. As one of the largest institutional holders of SpaceX pre-IPO, Baron Capital’s funds, such as Baron Partners, benefited immensely from valuation markups.

Baron’s $1 billion IPO purchase signals deep confidence in SpaceX’s post-IPO trajectory. In an era of short-term market noise, his strategy exemplifies patient capital: backing visionary leadership and transformative technology.

For investors watching the space sector, it serves as a powerful endorsement that the final frontier may indeed yield the next great wealth-creation engine. As Baron puts it, SpaceX isn’t just building rockets—it’s trying to “save humanity” by expanding our horizons beyond Earth.

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Elon Musk

Elon Musk just put a $1 Trillion revenue number on SpaceX

SpaceX surged 19% on its first trading day as Musk projected $1 trillion revenue by 2030.

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Rendering of a colonized Mars by way of SpaceX

Just days after SpaceX stock pushed its market cap past $2 trillion on its first trading session, closing at $160.95, a 19% gain on the $135 IPO price, Elon Musk posted his own revenue projection on X that went well beyond anything Wall Street modeled. “I think SpaceX might be able to reach approximately $1T revenue in 2030,” Musk wrote, then followed up: “And I would be surprised if revenue is not greater than $1T in 2031.” That forecast sits roughly three times above the most bullish institutional estimate on the table.

Morgan Stanley, one of the lead underwriters, projects SpaceX revenue of $160 billion in 2028, $330 billion in 2030, and $3.4 trillion by 2040, with adjusted EBITDA projected to exceed $2.7 trillion at that point. Reaching those numbers from SpaceX’s $18.7 billion in 2025 revenue requires a compound annual growth rate of roughly 42%, which would outpace even Amazon’s fastest growth era. Morgan Stanley’s model places AI infrastructure as the heaviest revenue driver, projecting $190 billion from SpaceX’s AI business alone by 2030. That figure is anchored to xAI’s Grok platform and the Colossus supercomputer following the earlier merger.

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The government revenue pipeline provides a more predictable foundation under those projections. As we have previously reported, SpaceX holds at least $22 billion in cumulative federal contracts across NASA, the Space Force, the NRO, and the Space Development Agency, with 52 active contracts carrying $11.8 billion in remaining value. The NASA Artemis Human Landing System contract alone is valued at $4.04 billion, covering a second crewed lunar landing demonstration targeted for the Artemis IV mission. SpaceX is also a frontrunner for the Golden Dome missile defense shield, and the FAA has approved up to 44 Starship launches from LC-39A in 2026, setting the stage for Starship to become the backbone of both commercial and government heavy lift. Whether Musk’s $1 trillion number proves visionary or simply optimistic, the infrastructure to get there is already being funded.

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