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SpaceX delays Starlink launch to Sunday for “constellation optimization”
SpaceX has revealed a new and mysterious reason to delay its own rocket launch: something called “constellation optimization.”
Known as Starlink 2-4, the mission is now scheduled to launch a batch of 51 Starlink V1.5 satellites to a semi-polar Earth orbit no earlier than (NET) 8:15 am PST (16:15 UTC) on Sunday, January 15th. That represents a big shift in launch timing, as more recent attempts were aiming to lift off around 7-8 pm. A significant time change often implies that a launch is targeting a completely different destination, but data provided by SpaceX suggests that that’s not the case, raising more questions.
The update that's rolling out to the fleet makes full use of the front and rear steering travel to minimize turning circle. In this case a reduction of 1.6 feet just over the air— Wes (@wmorrill3) April 16, 2024
Starlink 2-4 is not new to launch delays. Originally scheduled to launch in November 2022, unspecified issues with the rocket caused SpaceX to indefinitely delay the mission. Launches for NASA and an Israeli company then took precedence, pushing Starlink 2-4 into early 2023. SpaceX announced a target of January 9th, but that attempt was called off by poor weather in the Pacific Ocean, where the mission’s Falcon 9 booster is scheduled to land.
SpaceX then delayed the mission from January 10th to the 11th “to take a closer look at data from second stage.” On January 11th, SpaceX delayed the mission to January 14th “to allow additional time for pre-launch checkouts.” Less than four hours later, SpaceX delayed the mission again, settling on the current January 15th target and debuting “constellation optimization” as a rare new cause of launch delays.
Logical speculation suggested that constellation optimization – combined with the major timing change – could have referred to a decision to launch Starlink 2-4 to a different orbital shell. SpaceX’s Starlink Gen1 constellation has five distinct shells, and the company’s Vandenberg Space Force Base (VSFB), California pad can theoretically launch to all of them. SpaceX’s Starlink V1.5 satellites are also theoretically identical, meaning that any satellite can launch to any shell and do its job without issue.
However, updated orbit data (Two Line Elements or TLEs) disseminated by SpaceX shows that Falcon 9 is still scheduled to launch Starlink 2-4 to a nearly identical orbit and thus the same Group 2 shell as before. “Constellation optimization” could instead refer to changing which planes the same Group 2 satellites end up at, tweaking where and when their added coverage will be felt most by Starlink internet users.
Next Spaceflight reports that Starlink 2-4 will use Falcon 9 booster B1075, marking the second time the company has debuted a new Falcon booster on an internal mission. Up until very recently, new Falcon boosters were almost always reserved for NASA or the US military, SpaceX’s most conservative customers. But SpaceX’s program of Falcon booster reuse has become so successful and so routine that even NASA and the military appear to be ambivalent about taking advantage of the first launch of a new Falcon 9.
B1075 will attempt to land on drone ship Of Course I Still Love You (OCISLY) around 662 kilometers (411 mi) southwest of California, off of Mexico’s Baja Peninsula. SpaceX will broadcast the launch and landing live, beginning around 8:13 am PST (16:13 UTC) on Sunday if the mission can avoid further delays.
News
Tesla celebrates 9 million vehicles produced globally
The achievement, announced by Tesla Asia on X, celebrated not just the Shanghai team’s output but the company’s cumulative production across all its factories worldwide.
Tesla has achieved a new milestone, rolling out its nine millionth vehicle worldwide from Giga Shanghai.
The achievement, announced by Tesla Asia on X, celebrated not just the Shanghai team’s output but the company’s cumulative production across all its factories worldwide. The milestone came as 2025 drew to a close, and it inspired praise from some of the company’s key executives.
Tesla’s 9 million vehicle milestone
The commemorative photo from Tesla Asia featured the Giga Shanghai team assembled on the factory floor, surrounding the milestone Model Y unit, which looked pristine in white. The image was captioned: “Our 9 millionth vehicle globally has just rolled off the production line at Giga Shanghai. Thanks to our owners and supporters around the world.”
Senior Vice President of Automotive Tom Zhu praised Tesla’s factory teams for the remarkable milestone. He also shared his gratitude to Tesla owners for their support. “Congrats to all Tesla factories for this amazing milestone! Thanks to our owners for your continued support!” Zhu wrote in a post on X.
Giga Shanghai’s legacy
Tesla’s nine million vehicle milestone is especially impressive considering that just 207 days ago, the company announced that it had built its eight millionth car globally. The eight millionth Tesla, a red Model Y, was built in Giga Berlin. The fact that Tesla was able to build a million cars in less than seven months is quite an accomplishment.
Giga Shanghai, Tesla’s largest factory by volume, has been instrumental to the company’s overall operations, having reached four million cumulative vehicles earlier in 2025. The plant produces Model 3 and Model Y for both domestic Chinese and export markets, making it the company’s primary vehicle export hub.
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Tesla officially publishes Q4 2025 vehicle delivery consensus
By releasing these numbers directly, Tesla establishes a clear, transparent benchmark ahead of its actual results.
Tesla has taken the rather unusual step of officially publishing its company-compiled Q4 2025 delivery consensus on the Investor Relations site. As per analyst estimates, Tesla is expected to deliver 422,850 vehicles and deploy 13.4 GWh of battery storage systems this Q4 2025.
By releasing these numbers directly, Tesla establishes a clear, transparent benchmark ahead of its actual results, making it harder for narratives to claim a “miss” based on outlier estimates.
Official consensus sets the record straight
Tesla’s IR press release detailed the consensus from 20 analysts for vehicle deliveries and 16 analysts for energy deployments. As per the release, full-year 2025 consensus delivery estimates come in at 1,640,752 vehicles, an 8.3% decline from 2025’s FY deliveries of 1,789,226 cars.
Tesla noted that while it “does not endorse any information, recommendations or conclusions made by the analysts,” its press release does provide a notable reference point. Analysts contributing to the company compiled consensus include Daiwa, DB, Wedbush, Oppenheimer, Canaccord, Baird, Wolfe, Exane, Goldman Sachs, RBC, Evercore ISI, Barclays, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, UBS, Jefferies, Needham, HSBC, Cantor Fitzgerald, and William Blair.
Tesla’s busy Q4 2025
Tesla seems to be pushing hard to deliver as many vehicles as possible before the end of 2025, despite the company’s future seemingly being determined not by vehicle deliveries, but FSD and Optimus’ rollout and ramp. Still, reports from countries such as China are optimistic, with posts on social media hinting that Tesla’s delivery centers in the country are appearing packed as the final weeks of 2025 unfold.
The Tesla Model Y and Model 3 are also still performing well in China’s premium EV segment. Based on data from January to November, the Model Y took China’s number one spot in the RMB 200,000-RMB 300,000 segment for electric vehicles, selling 359,463 units. The Model 3 sedan took third place, selling 172,392. This is quite impressive considering that both the Model Y and Model 3 command a premium compared to their domestic rivals.
Elon Musk
Tesla’s Elon Musk accepts invitation to Israel’s Smart Transportation Conference
The announcement was shared by the Israeli Prime Minister in a post on social media platform X.
Elon Musk has reportedly accepted an invitation from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to participate in the country’s Smart Transportation Conference in March 2026.
The announcement was shared by the Israeli Prime Minister in a post on social media platform X.
A call and an invitation
Netanyahu posted on X about Musk, stating in Hebrew: “Last night, I held a joint conference call from Florida with entrepreneur Elon Musk, Minister of Transportation Miri Regev, and the head of the National AI Headquarters, Erez Askal. In the framework of the conversation, Musk responded to my invitation and Minister Regev’s invitation to participate in the Smart Transportation Conference that will be held in March.”
Netanyahu added that he and Musk discussed continuing initiatives such as the promotion of autonomous vehicle laws and the boosting of AI technologies in Israel. This, according to the Prime Minister, is aimed at making the country a global leader in emerging technologies.
“Additionally, we discussed the continuation of collaborations with Tesla and the promotion of the law pertaining to autonomous vehicles. I spoke at length with Musk about promoting and developing artificial intelligence technologies in Israel, and I said in our conversation: We intend to catapult Israel and turn it into a global leader in the field, just as we did in cyber and other technologies,” Netanyahu added.
Tesla FSD’s upcoming rollout in Israel
Elon Musk’s upcoming conference appearance in Israel could hint at Tesla’s upcoming rollout of FSD and its Robotaxi service in the country. Previous reports have hinted that FSD is nearing regulatory approval in Israel, following strong advocacy from local owners and direct intervention from the government.
Nearly 1,000 Tesla drivers petitioned authorities, highlighting FSD’s potential to enhance road safety. Transport and Road Safety Minister Miri Regev responded positively on X, writing “I’ve received the many referrals from Tesla drivers in Israel! Tesla drivers? Soon you won’t need to hold the steering wheel.”
Minister Regev has instructed the ministry’s Director-General to accelerate the approval process, including necessary tests. A dedicated working group, led by Moshe Ben-Zaken, is also coordinating with regulatory and safety agencies to meet international standards.
Tesla celebrates 9 million vehicles produced globally
Tesla officially publishes Q4 2025 vehicle delivery consensus
