SpaceX
SpaceX’s Falcon 9 recovery robot prepares for imminent rocket landing [photos]
SpaceX’s shadow-bound Falcon 9 recovery robot was spotted out and about aboard drone ship Of Course I Still Love You (OCISLY) in the week leading up to the company’s next rocket launch, targeting liftoff at 8:45 pm EST (01:45 UTC), February 21st.
Dedicated to safely securing Falcon 9 and Heavy boosters after landing aboard drone ship OCISLY, the robot – unofficially nicknamed Octagrabber – uses four hydraulic arms and the sheer mass of its solid steel frame to grab onto the ~25-ton boosters’ built-in launch clamps and hold them steady in sea states that would create a hazard for recovery technicians. Effectively a rocket-grabbing robotic tank, Octagrabber will likely play a role in Falcon 9 B1048’s imminent third launch and landing.
Octagrabber with human for scale. 2/14 #spacex pic.twitter.com/JmUYDJubRm
— Pauline Acalin (@w00ki33) February 15, 2019
While Octagrabber’s work tends to take a backseat to the building-sized rocket landings it precedes, the robot has played an important role in SpaceX’s Falcon 9 recovery efforts since it went into service in mid-2017. Its development was expedited in part because of an iffy 2016 rocket recovery in which the Falcon 9 booster in question – destined to eventually become one of Falcon Heavy’s two side cores – landed hard and wound up precariously sliding around the deck of OCISLY, only saved from falling overboard by the lip of the drone ship’s deck.
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- B1023 slid around OCISLY’s deck shortly after launch, nearly falling into the Atlantic. (SpaceX)
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- SpaceX’s rocket-securing robot, known as Octagrabber, seen on OCISLY after another successful rocket recovery, August 12th. (Tom Cross)
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- Octagrabber hangs on to B1046 as OCISLY arrives in port. (Tom Cross)
With a 25-ton, ~150-foot tall pressurized rocket sliding uncontrollably around their work area, SpaceX’s recovery technicians understandably extricated themselves from the situation and were forced to wait for calmer seas before securing the booster to the deck. Aside from a period of a few months in late 2017 where Octagrabber was effectively incinerated while attempting to secure a Falcon 9 booster with a fuel leak, the robot has been a part of nearly every East Coast Falcon 9 drone ship recovery since. The overall value it adds is unclear but the fact that a similar sibling has yet to be built for West Coast drone ship Just Read The Instructions (JRTI) suggests that Octagrabber is viewed as more of a good option to have with an otherwise non-critical level of utility.
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Nevertheless, the lone robot continues to soldier on and is routinely spotted out and about on OCISLY’s deck while the drone ship is docked in Port Canaveral, presumably performing a variety of maintenance checkouts and testing hardware and software between rocket recoveries. While SpaceX’s 2019 launch manifest has had a slow start in January and February, things are expected to get quite a bit more active over the next few months, while a SpaceX executive recently indicated that the company was hoping to conduct 21 or more launches this year.
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- (Pauline Acalin)
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- (Pauline Acalin)
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- Mr. Steven is seen here in Port Canaveral on February 15th, one week before the… accident… (Tom Cross)
Up next on SpaceX’s manifest is a launch just over 12 hours from now, featuring communications satellite PSN-6, an Air Force smallsat, and the first commercial Moon lander. If all goes as planned, the ~5400 kg (11,900 lb) trio will be placed into a high-energy geostationary transfer orbit with an apoapsis around 60,000 km (~38,000 mi) above Earth’s surface. Eight and a half minutes after launch, Falcon 9 B1048 will attempt its third landing in seven months, hopefully setting itself up for a fourth flight (and beyond) later this year. Mr. Steven – having completed a 5000 mile (8000 km) journey just a week and a half prior – will also attempt the first East Coast Falcon fairing catch.
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SpaceX’s massive investment in AI will make it a big winner, Argus Research said after the company’s successful earnings call last week.
The firm also upgraded shares to a Buy from Hold and set a $160 price target.
SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) is currently recovering from its heavy AI infrastructure investments, as it spent nearly $16 billion in Q2 alone. The company did this primarily by monetizing high-demand GPU compute capacity at a much faster pace than traditional data center economics would suggest.
Company CFO Bret Johnsen said that SpaceX would be able to pay back anything on new deployments within a year.
There are plenty of ways the company can do this:
Leasing excess compute capacity through contracts
SpaceX has already built Colossus and Colossus II, largely for its own model training. However, much of that capacity is already rented out to third parties. It already has major deals with Anthropic, Google, and Reflection AI. These partnerships are adding billions per month to SpaceX’s spreadsheet.
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High utilization driven by industry-wide scarcity
The demand for advanced AI training and inference capacity continues to exceed what is available for use. SpaceX can fill new racks quickly after they come online, so the capital deployed converts into revenue with minimal idle time.
Additionally, management and outside observers have described the new compute capital as behaving more like a cost-of-goods-sold than traditional multi-year capex, especially because of this rapid monetization pattern.
Capacity has already scaled from ~0.4 GW a year to 1.4 GW annually by the end of Q2. There are targets of more than 2 GW by year-end.
High incremental margins on the rental business once capacity is online
GPU cloud providers often operate at strong gross margins. SpaceX can monetize capacity that was already partially built or can be added efficiently. This means that incremental EBITDA margins on the rental revenue are usually high. This accelerates cash recovery relative to the gross capital outlay.
Parallel monetization of its own AI software and applications
Beyond pure infrastructure rental, SpaceX also generates revenue from Grok through subscriptions and usage, from X through ads, data, and other related services, enterprise APIs, and the planned integration of the Cursor coding tools acquisition.
These application layers ride on the same compute infrastructure and provide additional high-margin streams that could offset build-out costs. AI-segment revenue overall rose sharply to about $2.6 billion in Q2, according to Motley Fool. This was driven primarily by the infrastructure contracts, but the software side is also partially responsible.
Efficient, large-scale deployment and vertical integration advantages
SpaceX has emphasized the rapid construction of power and cooling infrastructure and favorable cost-per-megawatt economics relative to industry benchmarks in some disclosures.
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Combined with its ability to scale capacity aggressively and the fact that many contracts start generating revenue within months of capacity coming online, the effective payback compresses dramatically compared with more conventional multi-year data-center projects.
SpaceX’s dominant near-term recovery path will turn the AI clusters into a hyperscale-style compute rental business for other leading AI companies while still using a portion for internal models.
Elon Musk
Another Tesla SpaceX merger prediction by ARK Invest has Elon Musk talking
Elon Musk again denies a Tesla China split as new SpaceX merger speculation resurfaces quickly.
Elon Musk restated that Tesla has no plans to separate its China business from the rest of the company, responding to a new round of merger speculation from ARK Invest.
On the firm’s “Brainstorm” podcast, Cathie Wood’s team, including chief futurist Brett Winton and research director Nick Grous, argued a Tesla and SpaceX combination remains likely, with an announcement possible before the end of the year even if the deal itself would not close that quickly. Winton called Tesla’s Shanghai operations a “small ish wrinkle” for a merger rather than a real obstacle, since SpaceX’s national security work with the U.S. government sits uneasily next to Tesla’s manufacturing base in China.
Musk pushed back on the framing directly. “China is awesome. I strongly encourage people to visit,” he wrote on X. He also repeated language he first used in late July, when the Wall Street Journal reported that Tesla executives had been told to prepare for a possible spinoff, sale, or closure of the China business ahead of a SpaceX tie up. Musk called that report “absurdly fake news” at the time, adding that a separation had “never even come up in a discussion ever,” a line he echoed again this week.
The repeated denial has not settled the underlying question, because Shanghai’s role in Tesla’s business is exactly what makes a merger complicated. Gigafactory Shanghai still ships more than half of Tesla’s global deliveries and functions as the company’s main export hub for Europe and Asia. Teslarati previously reported on Musk’s initial denial, and the merger conversation itself has been building since SpaceX’s IPO gave it public shares to use as acquisition currency.
Wedbush’s Dan Ives has pegged the odds of a Tesla SpaceX merger at 80 to 90 percent by early 2027, and ARK’s prediction of a year end announcement adds another data point to that timeline, even as Musk keeps rejecting the specific mechanics reporters have described. Neither position rules out the other. Musk can deny a China spinoff was ever discussed while analysts still expect some form of combination to move forward, since ARK and Ives are both describing convergence at the corporate level, not necessarily the internal restructuring the Journal described in July.
For now, Tesla’s China business remains intact, and Musk’s comments this week make clear he has no interest in publicly walking that position back, no matter how often the merger question resurfaces.
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SpaceX stock did the opposite of what most of Wall Street expected this week, when the day designed to be its most dangerous turned into a rally, and the rally kept going.
Thursday marked the first major lockup expiration since SpaceX’s June IPO, making roughly 911.5 million insider held shares eligible to trade for the first time, more than doubling the company’s public float. Analysts and short sellers had spent weeks bracing for a flood of selling, especially after the stock fell 13 percent following its first earnings report as a public company on Tuesday. Instead, shares rose 6.1 percent Thursday to close at $114.92, and by Friday they were trading near $129, up more than another 12 percent on the day.
SpaceX shorts get warned by Musk ally, echoing Tesla’s early struggles
The setup made the outcome notable. Short interest had climbed to roughly 34 percent of the float heading into earnings, among the highest of any large cap stock, with about 95 percent of available shares to borrow already on loan. CEO Elon Musk warned short sellers twice in the weeks before the lockup, writing on X that “the survival probability of firms who maintain a significant short position in SpaceX over time is very low,” then following up on the morning of earnings with “I try to warn them, but they just double down.”
When the newly unlocked shares hit the market and the selloff never showed up, some of that short position appears to have started unwinding. TipRanks reported that options activity shifted toward bullish strategies like put selling and risk reversals following the rally, with roughly $600 million in options premium trading Thursday alone. Retail buyers also stepped in during the earnings dip, according to Vanda Research.
The fundamentals behind the stock have not changed much in a week. SpaceX’s revenue nearly doubled year over year to $7.8 billion, with Starlink subscribers doubling to 12 million and the company’s AI segment growing 247 percent. What spooked investors on Tuesday was the spending side. Capital expenditures jumped to more than $18 billion for the quarter, up from $2.8 billion a year earlier, with AI investment alone rising from $749 million to $15.8 billion. Wall Street remains split on whether that spending is building infrastructure SpaceX needs or outrunning what the business can currently support, a debate Teslarati has tracked since shares first came under pressure.
None of that resolves the bigger question hanging over the stock. Thursday’s release was only the first of nine staggered lockup tranches, with roughly $800 billion worth of additional shares scheduled to become eligible through October, and Musk’s own stake stays locked until next June. If this week is any indication, the market is treating that supply as something it can absorb rather than something to fear, at least for now.
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Tesla has one big financial question to answer for investors: Morgan Stanley
SpaceX AI investment gamble will make it a big winner, firm says
