News
SpaceX’s Falcon 9 sticks foggy booster recovery at California landing zone
Update: SpaceX has successfully wrapped up the Radarsat Constellation Mission, likely its last launch from Vandenberg Air Force Base for six to nine months. Supporting its second mission, Falcon 9 booster B1051 completed a flawless launch and landing, returning to SpaceX’s pad-adjacent LZ-4 landing zone after a gentle, (relatively) low-velocity reentry at ~1.6 km/s (3700 mph).
Sadly, the sun was unable to beat back Vandenberg’s iconic fog layer and it’s unlikely that remote cameras (even including SpaceX’s own on-pad webcast cameras) captured anything more than gray fog. According to Teslarati’s photographers, the sonic booms produced by the returning Falcon 9 booster were as spectacular as ever, though.
Despite more than seven months of delays, the Canadian Space Agency (CSA) can finally rest now that all three Radarsat Constellation spacecraft are safely in orbit, completing what is arguably the most arduous leg of most spacecraft journeys. Valued at more than $1 billion, SpaceX has also successfully launched its most expensive payload by a large margin, adding to Falcon 9’s increasingly impressive record of reliability.
SpaceX is just hours away from its sixth Falcon 9 launch of 2019, likely the company’s last Vandenberg Air Force Base (VAFB) mission for the rest of the year (and possibly longer).
Flight proven Falcon 9 booster B1051.1 has been assigned to the launch and will attempt to return to SpaceX’s LZ-4 landing zone after sending Canada’s Radarsat Constellation Mission (RCM) on its way to orbit. Likely weighing approximately 5000 kg (11,000 lb), RCM is comprised of a trio of Earth observation spacecraft with large surface-scanning radars as their primary payloads. At a cost of more than $1 billion, RCM will be the most expensive payload SpaceX has ever attempted to launch. Falcon 9 has a 13-minute window for launch but liftoff is scheduled to occur at 7:17 am PDT (14:17 UTC) on Wednesday, June 12th.
As it stands, Falcon 9’s RCM launch will last just over one hour from start to finish. B1051 will separate from Falcon 9’s upper stage, fairing, and payload and perform a return-to-launch-site (RTLS) recovery, landing at SpaceX’s LZ-4 pad less than eight minutes after liftoff.
LZ-4 sits barely a quarter of a mile away from SLC-4E, the SpaceX-leased pad that B1051.1 will lift off from. Sadly, B1051 is unlikely to remain at SLC-4 after its (hopefully successful) landing at LZ-4 due to the fact that SpaceX has no public missions scheduled to launch from VAFB until Q1 2020 at the earliest. In fact, SpaceX is reportedly planning major organizational changes – set to begin soon after this launch is complete. As such, RCM could be SpaceX’s last launch from California for at least the next six months, a period of downtime that could easily grow to a year or more if tenuous 2020 launch dates suffer payload-side delays.
SpaceX currently has three launches scheduled from its Vandenberg pad in 2020, although one, two, or even all three could easily slip into 2021 based on the limited information available about the payloads in question. In 2021, SpaceX has a fairly busy VAFB manifest of at least six possible launches – possibly more if 2020 missions slip.
Regardless, RCM will be a good temporary send-off to SpaceX’s launch activity in California. Press photographers – unaffiliated with SpaceX – will have the first opportunity ever to remotely capture images of a Falcon 9 booster landing in daylight. Additionally, weather permitting, Vandenberg Air Force Base makes for an exceptionally beautiful venue for rocket launches thanks to the vistas and setting offered by Northern California and the Pacific Ocean.
Current forecasts suggest that the traditional fog layer will begin to clear at 7am local time, around the same time that SpaceX’s RCM webcast will kick off. With any luck, the photographers’ remote cameras will be greeted by a clear Pacific morning come liftoff.
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Elon Musk
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX has issued an initial statement about Starship Booster 18’s anomaly early Friday. The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX’s initial comment
As per SpaceX in a post on its official account on social media platform X, Booster 18 was undergoing gas system pressure tests when the anomaly happened. Despite the nature of the incident, the company emphasized that no propellant was loaded, no engines were installed, and personnel were kept at a safe distance from the booster, resulting in zero injuries.
“Booster 18 suffered an anomaly during gas system pressure testing that we were conducting in advance of structural proof testing. No propellant was on the vehicle, and engines were not yet installed. The teams need time to investigate before we are confident of the cause. No one was injured as we maintain a safe distance for personnel during this type of testing. The site remains clear and we are working plans to safely reenter the site,” SpaceX wrote in its post on X.
Incident and aftermath
Livestream footage from LabPadre showed Booster 18’s lower half crumpling around the liquid oxygen tank area at approximately 4:04 a.m. CT. Subsequent images posted by on-site observers revealed extensive deformation across the booster’s lower structure. Needless to say, spaceflight observers have noted that Booster 18 would likely be a complete loss due to its anomaly.
Booster 18 had rolled out only a day earlier and was one of the first vehicles in the Starship V3 program. The V3 series incorporates structural reinforcements and reliability upgrades intended to prepare Starship for rapid-reuse testing and eventual tower-catch operations. Elon Musk has been optimistic about Starship V3, previously noting on X that the spacecraft might be able to complete initial missions to Mars.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
Elon Musk
SpaceX Starship Version 3 booster crumples in early testing
Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
SpaceX’s new Starship first-stage booster, Booster 18, suffered major damage early Friday during its first round of testing in Starbase, Texas, just one day after rolling out of the factory.
Based on videos of the incident, the lower section of the rocket booster appeared to crumple during a pressurization test. Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
Booster test failure
SpaceX began structural and propellant-system verification tests on Booster 18 Thursday night at the Massey’s Test Site, only a few miles from Starbase’s production facilities, as noted in an Ars Technica report. At 4:04 a.m. CT on Friday, a livestream from LabPadre Space captured the booster’s lower half experiencing a sudden destructive event around its liquid oxygen tank section. Post-incident images, shared on X by @StarshipGazer, showed notable deformation in the booster’s lower structure.
Neither SpaceX nor Elon Musk had commented as of Friday morning, but the vehicle’s condition suggests it is likely a complete loss. This is quite unfortunate, as Booster 18 is already part of the Starship V3 program, which includes design fixes and upgrades intended to improve reliability. While SpaceX maintains a rather rapid Starship production line in Starbase, Booster 18 was generally expected to validate the improvements implemented in the V3 program.
Tight deadlines
SpaceX needs Starship boosters and upper stages to begin demonstrating rapid reuse, tower catches, and early operational Starlink missions over the next two years. More critically, NASA’s Artemis program depends on an on-orbit refueling test in the second half of 2026, a requirement for the vehicle’s expected crewed lunar landing around 2028.
While SpaceX is known for diagnosing failures quickly and returning to testing at unmatched speed, losing the newest-generation booster at the very start of its campaign highlights the immense challenge involved in scaling Starship into a reliable, high-cadence launch system. SpaceX, however, is known for getting things done quickly, so it would not be a surprise if the company manages to figure out what happened to Booster 18 in the near future.
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
