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SpaceX to squeeze in Falcon 9 Starlink launch before NASA’s Moon rocket debut
SpaceX is preparing for at least one more Falcon 9 launch between now and the debut of NASA’s Space Launch System (SLS) Moon rocket, a milestone that could arrive as early as August 29th.
Depending on where the cards ultimately fall, Falcon 9 could launch up to three times between now and NASA’s last firm SLS launch window (September 5th). Multiple sources report that SpaceX’s next Falcon 9 launch – Starlink 4-23 – could occur as early as 10:22 pm EDT, Saturday, August 27th (02:22 UTC 28 August).
On August 23rd, SpaceX decided to transfer the mission from its NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC) LC-39A pad to Cape Canaveral Air Force Station’s (CCASF) LC-40, likely in part because the latter pad is a few extra miles away from LC-39B, where NASA’s first SLS rocket is preparing for flight.
That late change may have been a simple consequence of one pad being more ready than the other was expected to be, but it could have also been driven by an abundance of caution on behalf of SpaceX, NASA, or both. At LC-40, a catastrophic Falcon 9 failure – however unlikely – would be less likely to harm the SLS rocket or Pad 39B than a similar failure at Pad 39A.
The odds of such a failure have arguably never been lower. SpaceX’s Falcon 9 workhorse recently completed its 143rd consecutively successful launch. By most reasonable measures, that string of successes likely makes Falcon 9 the most statistically reliable US rocket ever flown. SpaceX has also successfully launched 26 astronauts into orbit and returned them to Earth over the last two years. Nevertheless, given the almost $50 billion NASA will have spent on SLS and its Orion spacecraft and launch pad by the time the rocket finally lifts off, even the most extreme attempts to maximize caution could be considered reasonable.
If SLS manages to lift off during its first window, which stretches from 8:33 am to 10:33 am EDT (12:33-14:33 UTC) on August 29th, the Moon launch could find itself sandwiched between SpaceX ‘sStarlink 4-23 mission on August 27th and Starlink 3-4 on August 31st. In addition to Starlink 4-23 and 3-4, SpaceX is preparing to launch Starlink 4-20 and at least one rideshare payload no earlier than September 4th. If the first SLS launch somehow misses its first two windows on August 29th and September 2nd, the rocket’s next window of opportunity opens on September 5th.
Emphasizing the potential power of distributed launches once a high launch cadence is achieved, SpaceX’s much smaller Falcon 9 rockets have launched hundreds of tons over the last 12 months – several times more payload than the 95 tons (~210,000 lb) the multi-billion-dollar SLS is designed to launch to low Earth orbit (LEO) in one go. In fact, after Starlink 4-23, SpaceX’s fleet of partially reusable Falcon 9 rockets will have launched around 95 tons of Starlink satellites to LEO (and one South Korean spacecraft to the Moon) in less than six weeks.
Assuming it launches last, Starlink 4-20 (NET Sept 4) will be Falcon 9’s 146th consecutively successful launch and 52nd launch in 52.3 weeks, more or less achieving a 12-month running average of one Falcon 9 launch per week.
Elon Musk
Elon Musk reiterates Tesla Optimus’ most sci-fi potential yet
Musk shared his comments in a series of posts on social media platform X.
Elon Musk recently reiterated one of the most ambitious forecasts for Tesla’s humanoid robot, Optimus, stating it could become the first real-world example of a Von Neumann machine. He also noted once more that Optimus would be Tesla’s biggest product.
Musk shared his comments in a series of posts on social media platform X.
Optimus as a von Neumann machine
In response to a post on X that pondered on sci-fi timelines becoming real, Musk wrote that “Optimus will be the first Von Neumann machine, capable of building civilization by itself on any viable planet.” In a separate post, Musk wrote that Optimus will be Tesla’s “biggest product ever,” a phrase he has used in the past to describe the humanoid robot’s importance to the electric vehicle maker.
A Von Neumann machine is a class of theoretical self-replicating systems originally proposed in the mid-20th century by the mathematician John von Neumann. In his concept, von Neumann described machines that could travel to other worlds, use local materials to create copies of themselves, and carry out large-scale tasks without outside intervention.
Elon Musk’s broader plans
Considering Musk’s comments, it appears that Optimus would eventually be capable of performing complex work autonomously in environments beyond Earth. If Optimus could achieve such a feat, it could very well unlock humanity’s capability to explore locations beyond Earth. The idea of space exploration becomes more than feasible.
Elon Musk has discussed space-based AI compute, large-scale robotic production, and the role of SpaceX’s Starship in transporting hardware and materials to other planets. While Musk did not detail how Optimus would fit with SpaceX’s exploration activities, his Von Neumann machine comments suggest he is looking at Tesla’s robotics as part of a potential interplanetary ecosystem.
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Tesla China January wholesale sales rise 9% year-on-year
Tesla reported January wholesale sales of 69,129 China-made vehicles, as per data released by the China Passenger Car Association.
Tesla China reported January wholesale sales of 69,129 Giga Shanghai-made vehicles, as per data released by the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA). The figure includes both domestic sales and exports from Gigafactory Shanghai.
The total represented a 9.32% increase from January last year but a 28.86% decline from December’s 97,171 units.
China EV market trends
The CPCA estimated that China’s passenger new energy vehicle wholesale volume reached about 900,000 units in January, up 1% year-on-year but down 42% from December. Demand has been pressured by the start-of-year slow season, a 5% additional purchase tax cost, and uncertainty around the transition of vehicle trade-in subsidies, as noted in a report from CNEV Post.
Market leader BYD sold 210,051 NEVs in January, down 30.11% year-on-year and 50.04% month-on-month, as per data released on February 1. Tesla China’s year-over-year growth then is quite interesting, as the company’s vehicles seem to be selling very well despite headwinds in the market.
Tesla China’s strategies
To counter weaker seasonal demand, Tesla China launched a low-interest financing program on January 6, offering up to seven-year terms on select produced vehicles. The move marked the first time an automaker offered financing of that length in the Chinese market.
Several rivals, including Xiaomi, Li Auto, XPeng, and NIO, later introduced similar incentives. Tesla China then further increased promotions on January 26 by reinstating insurance subsidies for the Model 3 sedan. The CPCA is expected to release Tesla’s China retail sales and export breakdown later this month.
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Tesla’s Apple CarPlay ambitions are not dead, they’re still in the works
For what it’s worth, as a Tesla owner, I don’t particularly see the need for CarPlay, as I have found the in-car system that the company has developed to be superior. However, many people are in love with CarPlay simply because, when it’s in a car that is capable, it is really great.
Tesla’s Apple CarPlay ambitions appeared to be dead in the water after a large amount of speculation late last year that the company would add the user interface seemed to cool down after several weeks of reports.
However, it appears that CarPlay might make its way to Tesla vehicles after all, as a recent report seems to indicate that it is still being worked on by software teams for the company.
The real question is whether it is truly needed or if it is just a want by so many owners that Tesla is listening and deciding to proceed with its development.
Back in November, Bloomberg reported that Tesla was in the process of testing Apple CarPlay within its vehicles, which was a major development considering the company had resisted adopting UIs outside of its own for many years.
Nearly one-third of car buyers considered the lack of CarPlay as a deal-breaker when buying their cars, a study from McKinsey & Co. outlined. This could be a driving decision in Tesla’s inability to abandon the development of CarPlay in its vehicles, especially as it lost a major advantage that appealed to consumers last year: the $7,500 EV tax credit.
Tesla owners propose interesting theory about Apple CarPlay and EV tax credit
Although we saw little to no movement on it since the November speculation, Tesla is now reportedly in the process of still developing the user interface. Mark Gurman, a Bloomberg writer with a weekly newsletter, stated that CarPlay is “still in the works” at Tesla and that more concrete information will be available “soon” regarding its development.
While Tesla already has a very capable and widely accepted user interface, CarPlay would still be an advantage, considering many people have used it in their vehicles for years. Just like smartphones, many people get comfortable with an operating system or style and are resistant to using a new one. This could be a big reason for Tesla attempting to get it in their own cars.
Tesla gets updated “Apple CarPlay” hack that can work on new models
For what it’s worth, as a Tesla owner, I don’t particularly see the need for CarPlay, as I have found the in-car system that the company has developed to be superior. However, many people are in love with CarPlay simply because, when it’s in a car that is capable, it is really great.
It holds one distinct advantage over Tesla’s UI in my opinion, and that’s the ability to read and respond to text messages, which is something that is available within a Tesla, but is not as user-friendly.
With that being said, I would still give CarPlay a shot in my Tesla. I didn’t particularly enjoy it in my Bronco Sport, but that was because Ford’s software was a bit laggy with it. If it were as smooth as Tesla’s UI, which I think it would be, it could be a really great addition to the vehicle.
Elon Musk reiterates Tesla Optimus’ most sci-fi potential yet
Tesla China January wholesale sales rise 9% year-on-year
