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SpaceX’s first Starlink launch of the year up next after schedule shuffle

Falcon 9 booster B1049 is probably just a few days from its eighth launch and SpaceX's first Starlink mission of the new year. (Richard Angle)

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Update: SpaceX’s Starlink-16 mission is now scheduled to launch no earlier than 8:45 am EST (13:45 UTC) on Monday, January 18th.

SpaceX’s first Starlink launch of the year is now up next after a major rideshare mission’s delays forced a schedule shuffle.

Known as Starlink-16 or Starlink V1 L16, the mission will be SpaceX’s 16th launch of operational v1.0 communications satellites and its 17th Starlink launch overall. Originally scheduled to follow SpaceX’s first dedicated Smallsat Program rideshare launch on January 14th, that Transporter-1 mission slipped to no earlier than (NET) January 21st after a rapid-fire series of chaotic events earlier this year.

Scheduled to launch NET 1:23 pm EST (18:23 UTC) on January 17th, Starlink-16 thus became SpaceX’s defacto second launch of the year. Progress towards that working date became visible when, drone ship Just Read The Instructions (JRTI) quickly offloaded its most recent Falcon 9 booster ‘catch’ and departed Port Canaveral for the second time this year on January 13th. Headed some 633 km (~400 mi) northeast, the autonomous rocket landing platform is right on schedule (and set to be in the right place) to support a Starlink launch around January 17th.

Reading between the lines of comments made on January 12th by a 45th Space Wing colonel, the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) expect to support many as 53 launches in 2021, some 42-44 of which can be attributed to SpaceX.

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That figure meshes with CEO Elon Musk’s recent note that SpaceX is aiming to complete as many as 48 launches this year, 4-6 of which will likely fly out of the company’s Vandenberg Air Force Base, California facilities. If SpaceX does manage 40+ Florida launches in 2021, it’s safe to say that half – if not more – will be Starlink missions. In other words, SpaceX’s imminent Starlink-16 launch is likely the first of roughly two-dozen planned over the next 12 months, potentially orbiting almost 1500 satellites in a single year.

Falcon 9 B1049 completed its seventh launch and returned to port in late November 2020. (Richard Angle)
B1058 completed its fourth launch in early December 2020. (SpaceX)

Perhaps just three days out from Starlink-16’s scheduled launch, which of SpaceX’s five readily-available Falcon 9 boosters is assigned to support the mission. Falcon 9 B1049 is (numerically speaking) the best candidate, having last launched in late November – 54 days prior to January 17th. Falcon 9 B1058 is the next ‘oldest’ in the sense that it’s the second to last most recently launched, giving SpaceX roughly 40 days to turn the booster around for Starlink-16.

Regardless of the booster SpaceX selects, it’s all but guaranteed to result in one of the fastest Falcon 9 turnarounds ever – an increasingly less significant milestone as the company works to aggressively cut the average time between booster launches. Chances are also good that Starlink-16 will sport at least one flight-proven fairing half as SpaceX continues to gain experience recovering and reusing the carbon composite nosecones.

Assuming Starlink-16 features the usual 60 spacecraft, success will mean that SpaceX has officially launched more than 1000 Starlink satellites since dedicated launches began a year and a half ago in May 2019. Altogether, a successful launch would leave SpaceX with roughly 940 functional spacecraft in orbit – half or more of which are currently either raising or phasing their orbits.

Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Elon Musk says Tesla Robotaxi launch will force companies to license Full Self-Driving

“The automakers keep being told that this isn’t real or that just buying some hardware from Nvidia will solve it. As Tesla robotaxis become widespread and their other solutions don’t work, they will naturally turn to us.”

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Tesla CEO Elon Musk says the automaker’s Robotaxi platform launch later this month will essentially force other companies to license Full Self-Driving to achieve their own goals of achieving autonomy.

Musk’s statement comes as a video captured today showed the first Tesla Robotaxi test mules on public streets in Austin, Texas, just one day after the City officially listed the company as an autonomous vehicle operator.

A prediction by investing YouTube and Tesla community member Dave Lee stated that “at least one automaker by end of year” will license Full Self-Driving from the Musk-led company, as it will give rivals the confidence to use the software to run their own self-driving operations.

Lee detailed his theory by stating that the company that chooses to commit to FSD licensing will not be able to integrate the hardware and sell those units immediately. Instead, it will take two years or so to solve the engineering and design applications.

First Tesla driverless robotaxi spotted in the wild in Austin, TX

Musk revealed his true thoughts on other automakers’ attempts at vehicle autonomy, and said many are being told that Robotaxi is not real or that they can solve their problems with hardware orders to Nvidia.

He went on to say that companies will be forced to turn to Tesla at some point or another, because Robotaxi will be widespread and their solutions to figuring out an effective deployment will prove to be failures:

“The automakers keep being told that this isn’t real or that just buying some hardware from Nvidia will solve it. As Tesla robotaxis become widespread and their other solutions don’t work, they will naturally turn to us.”

Musk has not been shy to respond to speculation regarding the video of the Robotaxi, which was shared on X earlier today. This is perhaps one of the more fiery things he revealed. He seems ultra-confident in what Tesla will prove and achieve in the near future with the launch of the Robotaxi platform.

Many believe it will be rolled out this month. Bloomberg reported recently that Tesla was internally aiming for June 12. The company has not directly responded to these rumors.

Tesla has discussed on several occasions that it is in talks with an automaker about licensing Full Self-Driving, but it has never revealed who. The company first revealed discussions with another automaker in early 2024 when Elon Musk said:

“We’re in conversations with one major automaker regarding licensing FSD. It really just becomes a case of having them use the same cameras and inference computer and licensing our software. Once it becomes obvious that if you don’t have this (FSD) in a car, nobody wants your car. It’s a smart car… The people don’t understand all cars will need to be smart cars, or you will not sell, or nobody would buy it. Once that becomes obvious, I think licensing becomes not optional.”

Tesla confirms it is in talks with major automaker for potential FSD licensing

Many, including us, suspected that Ford was the company that Tesla was speaking of due to Musk’s relationship with Jim Farley, which resulted in the legacy automaker being the first major car company to adopt Tesla’s North American Charging Standard (NACS), which gave them access to the Supercharging Network.

This catalyzed an onslaught of companies choosing to make the same move as Tesla had truly set itself apart in terms of charging infrastructure.

Companies may be forced to make a similar decision if it can make the same type of statement with the rollout of Robotaxi.

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Tesla CEO Elon Musk reveals new details about Robotaxi rollout

The first Tesla Robotaxi unit was spotted in Austin earlier today, and CEO Elon Musk is revealing some cool new details.

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Tesla CEO Elon Musk has revealed new details about the company’s relatively imminent rollout of the Robotaxi platform as the suspected launch date of June 12 continues to near.

Earlier today, the first video showing the first driverless Tesla Robotaxi in Austin was shared on X, just a day after the City officially listed the company as an autonomous vehicle operator on its website. Tesla is listed as a company in the “Testing” phase.

The initial details of the Robotaxi are being revealed by Musk, who is carefully releasing small tidbits that seem to show the capabilities of the entire Tesla fleet, and not necessarily just the vehicles that will be involved in the initial rollout in Austin.

First Tesla driverless robotaxi spotted in the wild in Austin, TX

His first tidbit is one that many Tesla owners and fans will already know: many Teslas are capable of this driveless performance, but Full Self-Driving is not yet refined to the point where the software is quite ready to handle it. Current versions are robust, but not prepared for driverless navigation. The hardware, however, will enable Teslas to be Robotaxis, even if they’re already purchased by owners:

This is one of the biggest advantages Tesla has over other vehicle makers. Simply put, the Over-the-Air software updates that will roll out to FSD users will eventually make their cars into Robotaxis as well.

However, Musk shed some details on the version of FSD that is being run in these new Robotaxis that were spotted. Musk said that the version these Robotaxis are running is a new version, but will soon “merge to main branch.”

There is also an even newer version that has four times the parameters as this newer version that the test-stage Robotaxis are using, but Musk admits that this needs significant refinement before it is released to the public.

As of now, Tesla is simply teasing the actual launch date of the Robotaxi program, but Bloomberg reported earlier this month that it will occur on June 12.

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First Tesla driverless robotaxi spotted in the wild in Austin, TX

The short clip suggests that Tesla may be ramping up its preparations for its robotaxi rollout in Austin.

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Credit: @TerrapinTerpene/X

A recent video posted on X has provided a first look at Tesla’s driverless robotaxi, which is expected to be deployed in Austin, Texas, this month. The vehicle was a new Tesla Model Y, which was followed by what appeared to be a manned chase car.

The short clip suggests that Tesla may be ramping up its preparations for its robotaxi rollout in Austin.

The First Robotaxi Sighting

It was evident from the short clip that the Tesla robotaxi was operating completely driverless. In the video, which was posted on X by @TerrapinTerpene, the driverless Tesla could be seen confidently making a turn. The vehicle looked and behaved like any other car on the road, save for the fact that there was no one in the driver’s seat.

Interestingly enough, the short video also provided a teaser on where Tesla will place its “robotaxi” logo on its self-driving cars. Based on the video, the robotaxis’ logo will be tastefully placed on the front doors, making the vehicles look sleek and clean.

Initial Rollout Imminent

Recent reports have suggested that Tesla is already starting the testing phase of its robotaxi service in Austin, Texas. Expectations are also high that Tesla’s initial fleet of self-driving vehicles will be utilizing a lot of teleoperation to ensure that they operate as safely as possible.

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Updates to Austin’s official website recently have hinted at Tesla’s robotaxi launch. Just this Monday, Tesla was listed as an autonomous vehicle (AV) operator on Austin’s official Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV). Other AV operators listed on the site are Waymo and Zoox, among others.

Elon Musk, for his part, has noted that by the end of June, the public in Austin should be ready to take rides in Tesla robotaxis without an invitation. He also noted in late May that Tesla has been busy testing driverless cars on Austin’s city streets without any incidents.

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