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SpaceX set for its most important launch ever as skies, seas threaten delays

A Crew Dragon spacecraft is set to perform what will arguably be the most important mission in SpaceX's history. (SpaceX)

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SpaceX remains on track for an inaugural NASA astronaut launch that will arguably be the most important single mission in the company’s history, although Florida’s summer weather continues to conspire to delay it.

Heavily dependent on Atlantic Ocean weather conditions, skies (and seas) thankfully appear to be clearing up on the home stretch to Crew Dragon’s Demo-2 astronaut debut. Set to be the first time NASA has launched its own astronauts in nearly a decade and the first time SpaceX (or any private company) has launched humans into orbit, the stakes have never been higher for the 18-year-old Elon Musk venture.

If successful, it will catapult the company into an unprecedented era, proving countless traditional aerospace naysayers wrong and beating the likes of Boeing to the punch — all with a self-built reusable rocket and spacecraft that are dramatically cheaper than their closest competitors. It will be the single most encouraging step SpaceX has taken towards the permanent settlement of the solar system. On the other side of the double-edged sword, if things go south, it’s hard to exaggerate the scale of the setback and road to retribution that would face the pioneering spaceflight company.

Crew Dragon and Falcon 9 stand tall at Pad 39A during the last sunset before their inaugural astronaut launch. (SpaceX)

For two interconnected reasons, SpaceX’s Crew Dragon astronaut missions are going to be extraordinarily sensitive to weather restrictions come launch day, a fact that has come to partially dominate the tone of Demo-2 preparations over the last few days. First and foremost, NASA’s single highest priority for crewed Commercial Crew Program (CCP) launches is and will continue to be astronaut safety.

If things go according to plan, Crew Dragon’s Demo-2 mission will also be the first time NASA astronauts have splashed down in the ocean since July 1975, when the space agency completed the last launch of an Apollo Command and Service Module (CSM). Recovering crewed spacecraft from the ocean carries numerous challenges and constraints with it, many of which involve specific spacecraft characteristics. For SpaceX and NASA, Crew Dragon will have fairly strict requirements for sea states and weather during astronaut splashdowns. Additionally, thanks to SpaceX’s innovative inclusion of a built-in abort system in the Crew Dragon capsule, the spacecraft will be able to abort at any point during launch, from before liftoff all the way to orbit.

Crew Dragon C201 is recovered from the Atlantic Ocean after the spacecraft’s first orbital launch, reentry, and landing. (NASA/Cory Huston)

As a direct result of that significant safety improvement, SpaceX and NASA are ironically going to have a more challenging time launching Crew Dragon as dozens of possible abort splashdown locations stretching across the Atlantic Ocean will have to be constantly monitored for weather violations. SpaceX Vice President of Build and Reliability Hans Koenigsmann described the method of weighing those dozens of sites as an extremely complex algorithm, suggesting that unacceptable weather in certain spots might not fully delay a launch opportunity.

Falcon 9 B1058 and Crew Dragon C206 are set for their inaugural astronaut launch. (NASA – Bill Ingalls)
There is currently a 40% chance of weather delays. (Richard Angle)

Still, adding in the need for SpaceX to attempt to recover Falcon 9 boosters on ocean-based drone ships like Of Course I Still Love You (OCISLY), which carries its own weather restrictions, the company’s astronaut launches are going to be extraordinarily sensitive to environmental factors. As of now, SpaceX’s inaugural astronaut launch remains technically on track to lift off at 4:33 pm EDT (20:33 UTC) on May 27th. The latest forecasts predict a 60% chance of favorable weather on Wednesday, up from 40% around 24 hours ago.

A backup window on May 30th shows a 70% chance of favorable weather, with both days primarily challenged by the likelihood of thunderstorms in and around Cape Canaveral. That forecast, however, doesn’t account for the dozens of locations in the Atlantic Ocean that will also need some level of favorable weather. To quantify the scale of weather-related challenges, Koenigsmann revealed in a prelaunch briefing that the weather component of the flight readiness review (FRR) alone involved a presentation with more than 60 slides. According to Elon Musk, NASA and SpaceX will decide later this morning whether the Atlantic Ocean is calm enough to proceed with Crew Dragon’s historic launch attempt.

SpaceX and NASA will both host livestreams of the Demo-2 mission beginning around noon EDT (16:00 UTC). Stay tuned for updates as we close in on the momentous occasion.

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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FCC green lights SpaceX’s move to a showdown with Verizon and AT&T

The FCC advanced plans opening 482 MHz to satellite phone service, boosting SpaceX’s Starlink Mobile.

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A hand holds a smartphone displaying the Starlink Mobile app interface showing a strong “Connected – Direct to Cell” signal, with a Starlink satellite beaming connectivity signals down to Earth from orbit. The background features the planet’s night side glowing with city lights against the curve of the atmosphere, set above a scenic twilight landscape.

The Federal Communications Commission voted Thursday to move forward with a proposal that would open an additional 482 MHz of spectrum to satellite service beamed directly to ordinary phones, a step that could widen the road for SpaceX’s Starlink Mobile to compete with the country’s largest wireless carriers.

The commission adopted the notice of proposed rulemaking at its October open meeting in Washington, Reuters reported. The proposal would raise the number of bands eligible for Supplemental Coverage from Space from five to 13, according to the FCC fact sheet. Commissioners also advanced a companion item proposing an auction of 25 MHz in the 1675 to 1695 MHz and 2020 to 2025 MHz bands, which could be used for terrestrial service, direct to device service or both.

Thursday’s vote does not hand any spectrum to SpaceX. It opens a public comment period, and final rules will come later. Under the draft, comments would be due 60 days after the notice is published in the Federal Register. The FCC had not released the adopted text at the time of writing, so it is not yet clear whether any bands were changed before the vote.

That question is where the fight now moves. AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile, through industry group CTIA, asked the FCC to drop the 2.5 GHz and 3.45 GHz bands, which make up 290 MHz of the 482 MHz on the table, as Teslarati reported ahead of the vote. T-Mobile argued satellite interference could wipe out up to 96% of a cell site’s uplink coverage area. SpaceX asked the commission to go the other way and add the 902 to 928 MHz band.

The rule change that matters most to SpaceX may be a structural one. Today, a satellite operator must lease spectrum from every carrier holding co-channel licenses across an entire region such as the contiguous United States. The proposal would replace that with a certification that the operator has coexistence agreements covering only the areas it plans to serve, or that it holds the terrestrial licenses itself.

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SpaceX has spent this year building that second path. It bought EchoStar’s AWS-4 and H-block licenses in a deal worth roughly $17 billion, and earlier this month agreed to acquire Grain Management’s nationwide 800 MHz portfolio, which the company said would pave the way for Starlink to become a major US mobile carrier. The FCC approved SpaceX’s purchase of three unused AWS-3 licenses from Tristar on October 21, and cleared its plan for 15,000 next generation direct to cell satellites on October 6.

The regulator has not always sided with SpaceX. In April, the FCC dismissed a SpaceX petition seeking access to Mobile Satellite Service spectrum held by incumbents, and it rejected 2.5 GHz for satellite coverage when it first adopted the framework in 2024.

The carriers are also building their own defenses. In May, the three companies agreed in principle to form a joint venture pooling spectrum for satellite service, and T-Mobile remains SpaceX’s US launch partner for Starlink Mobile even as it leads the push to keep satellites out of 2.5 GHz. SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell has said service on SpaceX’s own airwaves is targeted for early 2028.

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Tesla’s Roadster appearance at SpaceX has merger watchers talking

Tesla’s next generation Roadster was spotted at SpaceX’s Hawthorne headquarters, two weeks after its unveiling.

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The Roadster’s rear wing, one of the aerodynamic elements Tesla pairs with a fan-based downforce system. (Image: Tesla)

Tesla’s next generation Roadster turned up at SpaceX’s headquarters in Hawthorne, California on Wednesday, less than two weeks after the car flew off a ramp at its unveiling in Texas.

Photos shared on X by SpaceX Engineer (@DeannaRiceSPCX) show the new Roadster parked outdoors beside the famed Falcon 9 that stands outside company headquarters at the corner of Crenshaw Boulevard and Jack Northrop Avenue. Rocket B1019 was the first orbital-class booster ever to land after a launch on December 21, 2015 after it sent 11 Orbcomm satellites to orbit and then flew back to Landing Zone 1 at Cape Canaveral, which would be the first landing in what became SpaceX’s reusable rocket program. SpaceX chose not to fly it again. After a test fire in Florida, the booster was shipped to Hawthorne and raised upright as a permanent monument in August 2016, as Teslarati reported at the time. Putting the Roadster, which flies on SpaceX cold gas thrusters, next to the rocket that started SpaceX’s landings is symbolic in itself.

The Thrust and Rocket versions of the Roadster use cold gas thrusters fed by composite overwrapped pressure vessels, the same type of tank SpaceX flies on Falcon 9, and Elon Musk described the car as the work of Tesla and SpaceX engineers working together. Tesla lists 0 to 60 mph in under 0.9 seconds for Thrust and under 0.59 seconds for Rocket, while the base Performance model relies on a fan and ground sealing system for grip, as Teslarati detailed in its breakdown of the three Roadster configurations.

Tesla has kept the car in the spotlight since the October 15 event near Waco. Last week, the company posted a video of the Roadster’s fighter jet inspired cockpit, including a Track Mode screen with a “Thruster · 5,500 PSI” readout, which we covered in our look at the Roadster’s center display. Musk also said owners will be able to ask the car to perform the stunts autonomously, and promised a looping track at Tesla’s Texas headquarters.

The visit comes as special committees at Tesla and SpaceX weigh a possible merger, a step Musk confirmed on SpaceX’s third quarter earnings call. The Roadster, built on SpaceX hardware, has become one of the clearest examples of the two companies already building products together.

Musk said at the unveiling that Roadster production will begin in 2028. Reservations are open with a $50,000 payment, Thrust is listed as a limited release and Rocket is invite only. Tesla says the car is not approved for public road use.

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Verizon, AT&T and T-Mobile are trying to shut Starlink out before FCC vote

AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile want 290 MHz cut from an FCC satellite plan before Thursday.

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Starlink D2D direct to device vs Verizon, AT&T (Concept render by Grok)

AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile are asking the Federal Communications Commission to pull nearly 300 MHz of spectrum out of a proposal that would let satellite companies like SpaceX offer cell service directly to ordinary phones. The request lands one day before the agency votes on it.

The FCC will vote Thursday, October 29, on a notice of proposed rulemaking that would make an additional 482 MHz available for direct to device service, expanding the number of eligible bands from five to 13, according to the FCC fact sheet. It would also scrap the rule requiring a satellite operator to lease spectrum from carriers, replacing it with a certification that the operator has coexistence agreements in place or holds the terrestrial license itself.

That second path matters for SpaceX. As Teslarati reported earlier this month, SpaceX agreed to buy Grain Management’s nationwide 800 MHz portfolio to turn Starlink Mobile into a full US carrier, adding to the spectrum it already bought from EchoStar.

The carriers want two bands removed, 2.5 GHz and 3.45 GHz, which make up 290 MHz of the 482 MHz on the table. Through industry group CTIA, they argued that about 300 million users depend on those bands and that satellite operations in them are not technically feasible. T-Mobile, which calls 2.5 GHz the foundation of its Ultra Capacity 5G network, said in its own filing that satellite interference could wipe out up to 96% of a cell site’s uplink coverage area and cut uplink speeds by 88% to 99%.

Executives from all three carriers met with FCC staff on October 20, and T-Mobile CEO Srini Gopalan met separately with FCC Chairman Brendan Carr. T-Mobile’s role stands out because it is still SpaceX’s US launch partner for Starlink Mobile. The three carriers have also teamed up on their own satellite joint venture to pool spectrum, a move widely seen as a response to Starlink.

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SpaceX is asking for the opposite. In an October 23 filing after meetings with FCC staff and commissioners’ offices, the company asked regulators to add the 902 to 928 MHz band to the proposal. “Doing so now saves time later,” SpaceX wrote. The company also asked the FCC to modernize interference rules and align satellite deployment requirements with those for terrestrial cell networks, saying the goal is to let satellite and ground networks work together so Americans stay connected wherever they are.

The carriers have not been shy about how they view SpaceX as a competitor. On Verizon’s third quarter earnings call Monday, its chief executive said Starlink Mobile “just can’t compete with a terrestrial network” and estimated SpaceX would need four to six years and $300 billion to $500 billion to build a full US carrier network.

Thursday’s vote will not settle which bands survive. Adopting the notice opens a public comment period, with final rules to come later in the proceeding. The FCC already considered and rejected 2.5 GHz for satellite coverage once, in 2024. SpaceX also is not the only satellite player watching: the FCC approved Amazon’s $11.6 billion acquisition of Globalstar on October 27, giving its planned direct to device fleet its own mobile satellite spectrum.

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