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SpaceX set for its most important launch ever as skies, seas threaten delays

A Crew Dragon spacecraft is set to perform what will arguably be the most important mission in SpaceX's history. (SpaceX)

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SpaceX remains on track for an inaugural NASA astronaut launch that will arguably be the most important single mission in the company’s history, although Florida’s summer weather continues to conspire to delay it.

Heavily dependent on Atlantic Ocean weather conditions, skies (and seas) thankfully appear to be clearing up on the home stretch to Crew Dragon’s Demo-2 astronaut debut. Set to be the first time NASA has launched its own astronauts in nearly a decade and the first time SpaceX (or any private company) has launched humans into orbit, the stakes have never been higher for the 18-year-old Elon Musk venture.

If successful, it will catapult the company into an unprecedented era, proving countless traditional aerospace naysayers wrong and beating the likes of Boeing to the punch — all with a self-built reusable rocket and spacecraft that are dramatically cheaper than their closest competitors. It will be the single most encouraging step SpaceX has taken towards the permanent settlement of the solar system. On the other side of the double-edged sword, if things go south, it’s hard to exaggerate the scale of the setback and road to retribution that would face the pioneering spaceflight company.

Crew Dragon and Falcon 9 stand tall at Pad 39A during the last sunset before their inaugural astronaut launch. (SpaceX)

For two interconnected reasons, SpaceX’s Crew Dragon astronaut missions are going to be extraordinarily sensitive to weather restrictions come launch day, a fact that has come to partially dominate the tone of Demo-2 preparations over the last few days. First and foremost, NASA’s single highest priority for crewed Commercial Crew Program (CCP) launches is and will continue to be astronaut safety.

If things go according to plan, Crew Dragon’s Demo-2 mission will also be the first time NASA astronauts have splashed down in the ocean since July 1975, when the space agency completed the last launch of an Apollo Command and Service Module (CSM). Recovering crewed spacecraft from the ocean carries numerous challenges and constraints with it, many of which involve specific spacecraft characteristics. For SpaceX and NASA, Crew Dragon will have fairly strict requirements for sea states and weather during astronaut splashdowns. Additionally, thanks to SpaceX’s innovative inclusion of a built-in abort system in the Crew Dragon capsule, the spacecraft will be able to abort at any point during launch, from before liftoff all the way to orbit.

Crew Dragon C201 is recovered from the Atlantic Ocean after the spacecraft’s first orbital launch, reentry, and landing. (NASA/Cory Huston)

As a direct result of that significant safety improvement, SpaceX and NASA are ironically going to have a more challenging time launching Crew Dragon as dozens of possible abort splashdown locations stretching across the Atlantic Ocean will have to be constantly monitored for weather violations. SpaceX Vice President of Build and Reliability Hans Koenigsmann described the method of weighing those dozens of sites as an extremely complex algorithm, suggesting that unacceptable weather in certain spots might not fully delay a launch opportunity.

Falcon 9 B1058 and Crew Dragon C206 are set for their inaugural astronaut launch. (NASA – Bill Ingalls)
There is currently a 40% chance of weather delays. (Richard Angle)

Still, adding in the need for SpaceX to attempt to recover Falcon 9 boosters on ocean-based drone ships like Of Course I Still Love You (OCISLY), which carries its own weather restrictions, the company’s astronaut launches are going to be extraordinarily sensitive to environmental factors. As of now, SpaceX’s inaugural astronaut launch remains technically on track to lift off at 4:33 pm EDT (20:33 UTC) on May 27th. The latest forecasts predict a 60% chance of favorable weather on Wednesday, up from 40% around 24 hours ago.

A backup window on May 30th shows a 70% chance of favorable weather, with both days primarily challenged by the likelihood of thunderstorms in and around Cape Canaveral. That forecast, however, doesn’t account for the dozens of locations in the Atlantic Ocean that will also need some level of favorable weather. To quantify the scale of weather-related challenges, Koenigsmann revealed in a prelaunch briefing that the weather component of the flight readiness review (FRR) alone involved a presentation with more than 60 slides. According to Elon Musk, NASA and SpaceX will decide later this morning whether the Atlantic Ocean is calm enough to proceed with Crew Dragon’s historic launch attempt.

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SpaceX and NASA will both host livestreams of the Demo-2 mission beginning around noon EDT (16:00 UTC). Stay tuned for updates as we close in on the momentous occasion.

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Tesla benefits from new incentive program that’s active after tax credit loss

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(Credit: Tesla)

Tesla benefits from an incentive program in Texas that has become active following the loss of the $7,500 EV tax credit, which was a significant advantage for EV drivers.

In Texas, the State Commission on Environmental Quality has a grant program for light-duty motor vehicles that are either purchased or leased by consumers.

Referred to as the Light-Duty Motor Vehicle Purchase or Lease Incentive Program (LDPLIP), the program opened on October 13 and provides grants for consumers who want to buy new energy vehicles.

Will Tesla thrive without the EV tax credit? Five reasons why they might

The program allows for grants of up to $2,500 for electric or hydrogen fuel cell vehicles.

These are the eligibility criteria:

  • Individuals or entities who purchase or lease an eligible vehicle on or after September 1, 2025, and who apply for or acquire title and registration of the vehicle in Texas
  • Applicants must have taken possession of the vehicle before applying
  • Applicants must commit to operating and registering the vehicle in Texas for at least one year

Additionally, the car must:

  • Be included on the TCEQ Eligible Vehicle List
  • Be new and must not have been the subject of any prior retail sale or lease
  • Have a gross vehicle weight rating of 10,000 pounds or less

They are awarded on a first-come, first-served basis.

The good news is that Tesla’s entire vehicle lineup, as of October 7, qualifies. Here is what the LDPLIP’s list of qualifying vehicles shows for Tesla:

  • Tesla Cybertruck AWD
  • Tesla Cybertruck Beast
  • Tesla Model S AWD
  • Tesla Model S Plaid
  • Tesla Model X AWD
  • Tesla Model X Plaid
  • Tesla Model Y Long Range RWD
  • Tesla Model Y Long Range AWD
  • Tesla Model Y Performance
  • Tesla Model 3 Long Range RWD
  • Tesla Model 3 Long Range AWD
  • Tesla Model 3 Performance

This list was published during the day of October 7, which is coincidentally the same day Tesla launched its Tesla Model 3 ‘Standard’ and Tesla Model Y ‘Standard.’

We reached out to the program to confirm that these vehicles qualify for that grant, and we will update when we hear back.

With the loss of the Federal EV Tax Credit, local programs are still available to help with the cost of an EV. Although electric cars are affordable, there are benefits to choosing one, especially as these grant programs continue to become available.

The full list of vehicles that qualify for the grant is available here.

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Tesla’s pay package saga with Elon Musk enters its final chapter

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Tesla has made a last-ditch effort to secure the $56 billion pay package for CEO Elon Musk, which was approved twice by company shareholders, after a Delaware Chancery Court denied the frontman the payday.

Perhaps one of the biggest issues from a standpoint of being fluent in Tesla-related events has been Musk’s pay package.

It was approved by shareholders once in 2018, and required Musk to oversee various growth tranches that would bring investors value. He completed each of the tranches and was entitled to the pay package.

However, the Delaware Chancery Court decided in January 2024 to rescind the pay package, which Musk had earned, based on a suit filed by a shareholder.

Chancellor Kathaleen McCormick ruled that Tesla’s board lacked independence from Musk when the pay package was approved in 2018, and that it should not be granted.

She called it “an unfathomable sum.”

In response to the pay package’s rejection by Chancellor McCormick, Tesla held a second shareholder vote last year, which once again showed investors were willing to support Musk’s payday. It was approved by shareholders, but it was once again denied by the court.

Today, Tesla attorneys argued to the Delaware Supreme Court that the pay package should be restored because of last year’s vote by shareholders.

Jeffrey Wall, an attorney for Tesla, said (via Reuters):

“This was the most informed stockholder vote in Delaware history. Reaffirming that would resolve this case. Shareholders in 2024 knew exactly what they were voting.”

In a response to the decision by the Delaware courts last year, Tesla proposed a new pay package for Musk in September, which would give him a potentially $1 trillion compensation plan. It would require Musk to help Tesla reach several performance-based growth milestones, including achieving an $8.5 trillion market cap.

Elon Musk’s new pay plan ties trillionaire status to Tesla’s $8.5 trillion valuation

Musk is currently worth $483 billion, making him the richest person in the world. If he were to achieve his pay package tranches, granted the new pay package is passed at the Shareholder Meeting in November, he would easily be the first trillionaire.

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Tesla makes big move with its Insurance program

Tesla Insurance launched back in late 2019, and it was massive because it was the first time a company aimed to cover its vehicle owners in-house without the need for third-party companies.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla Insurance is heading to a new state for the first time in years, as the company is aiming to launch its in-house coverage platform in Florida.

Tesla Insurance launched back in late 2019, and it was massive because it was the first time a company aimed to cover its vehicle owners in-house without the need for third-party companies.

Tesla Insurance goes live with claims of lower rates by 20-30%

However, it has struggled to expand and only offers insurance in twelve states currently.

Tesla Insurance is available in:

  • Arizona
  • California
  • Colorado
  • Illinois
  • Maryland
  • Minnesota
  • Nevada
  • Ohio
  • Oregon
  • Texas
  • Utah
  • Virginia

In California, Tesla cannot offer real-time insurance or telematics due to regulatory rules.

The company uses a Safety Score to adjust rates based on driving behaviors. The current version, which is called Safety Score Beta v2.2, tracks Hard Braking, Aggressive Turning, Unsafe Following, Excessive Speeding, Late-Night Driving, Forced Autopilot Engagement, and Unbuckled Driving to determine the rate it should charge.

Tesla is working to expand into new markets and has filed applications to launch the program into new U.S. states. Back in 2022, it filed to offer insurance to Florida drivers, but it did not launch.

However, the company just filed to update its Private Passenger Auto program in Florida, according to the insurance site CoverageR.

It would be the first new state to obtain Tesla Insurance since Utah and Maryland launched over three years ago.

Tesla Insurance is now in Utah and Maryland

Tesla has its eyes on other states, including Georgia, New Jersey, Oregon, and Virginia.

It has also tried to expand to Europe, as it opened an office specifically for Insurance. It was also hiring for Legal Counsel specializing in Insurance on the continent, but nothing ever expanded to an actual offering of vehicle coverage.

Tesla Insurance is an advantage for owners specifically because the company is familiar with its vehicles, the parts, and the repair processes that are required to get a car back on the road.

This was a big reason some drivers switched from the previous providers to the in-house Insurance Tesla was able to offer.

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