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SpaceX set for its most important launch ever as skies, seas threaten delays
SpaceX remains on track for an inaugural NASA astronaut launch that will arguably be the most important single mission in the company’s history, although Florida’s summer weather continues to conspire to delay it.
Heavily dependent on Atlantic Ocean weather conditions, skies (and seas) thankfully appear to be clearing up on the home stretch to Crew Dragon’s Demo-2 astronaut debut. Set to be the first time NASA has launched its own astronauts in nearly a decade and the first time SpaceX (or any private company) has launched humans into orbit, the stakes have never been higher for the 18-year-old Elon Musk venture.
If successful, it will catapult the company into an unprecedented era, proving countless traditional aerospace naysayers wrong and beating the likes of Boeing to the punch — all with a self-built reusable rocket and spacecraft that are dramatically cheaper than their closest competitors. It will be the single most encouraging step SpaceX has taken towards the permanent settlement of the solar system. On the other side of the double-edged sword, if things go south, it’s hard to exaggerate the scale of the setback and road to retribution that would face the pioneering spaceflight company.
Yeah, Atlantic weather review tomorrow morning will determine if we can launch— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) May 27, 2020
For two interconnected reasons, SpaceX’s Crew Dragon astronaut missions are going to be extraordinarily sensitive to weather restrictions come launch day, a fact that has come to partially dominate the tone of Demo-2 preparations over the last few days. First and foremost, NASA’s single highest priority for crewed Commercial Crew Program (CCP) launches is and will continue to be astronaut safety.
If things go according to plan, Crew Dragon’s Demo-2 mission will also be the first time NASA astronauts have splashed down in the ocean since July 1975, when the space agency completed the last launch of an Apollo Command and Service Module (CSM). Recovering crewed spacecraft from the ocean carries numerous challenges and constraints with it, many of which involve specific spacecraft characteristics. For SpaceX and NASA, Crew Dragon will have fairly strict requirements for sea states and weather during astronaut splashdowns. Additionally, thanks to SpaceX’s innovative inclusion of a built-in abort system in the Crew Dragon capsule, the spacecraft will be able to abort at any point during launch, from before liftoff all the way to orbit.
As a direct result of that significant safety improvement, SpaceX and NASA are ironically going to have a more challenging time launching Crew Dragon as dozens of possible abort splashdown locations stretching across the Atlantic Ocean will have to be constantly monitored for weather violations. SpaceX Vice President of Build and Reliability Hans Koenigsmann described the method of weighing those dozens of sites as an extremely complex algorithm, suggesting that unacceptable weather in certain spots might not fully delay a launch opportunity.
Still, adding in the need for SpaceX to attempt to recover Falcon 9 boosters on ocean-based drone ships like Of Course I Still Love You (OCISLY), which carries its own weather restrictions, the company’s astronaut launches are going to be extraordinarily sensitive to environmental factors. As of now, SpaceX’s inaugural astronaut launch remains technically on track to lift off at 4:33 pm EDT (20:33 UTC) on May 27th. The latest forecasts predict a 60% chance of favorable weather on Wednesday, up from 40% around 24 hours ago.
A backup window on May 30th shows a 70% chance of favorable weather, with both days primarily challenged by the likelihood of thunderstorms in and around Cape Canaveral. That forecast, however, doesn’t account for the dozens of locations in the Atlantic Ocean that will also need some level of favorable weather. To quantify the scale of weather-related challenges, Koenigsmann revealed in a prelaunch briefing that the weather component of the flight readiness review (FRR) alone involved a presentation with more than 60 slides. According to Elon Musk, NASA and SpaceX will decide later this morning whether the Atlantic Ocean is calm enough to proceed with Crew Dragon’s historic launch attempt.
SpaceX and NASA will both host livestreams of the Demo-2 mission beginning around noon EDT (16:00 UTC). Stay tuned for updates as we close in on the momentous occasion.
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Elon Musk shed two new bits of detail on Starship following its 13th test launch, which was an overwhelming success.
SpaceX launched Starship for the 13th time last Friday after two delays: one on Monday when several Raptor engines did not ignite, and another on Thursday due to unfavorable weather conditions in Starbase, Texas.
The launch was overwhelmingly successful. SpaceX was able to complete a necessary test of the heat shield tiles by increasing the acceleration of Starship from launch throughout the flight; 20 Starlink v3 satellites were released with no issue; the Super Heavy Booster landed safely in the Gulf of America, Ship successfully reignited engines while in space; and it also splashed down without incident in the Indian Ocean.
SpaceX Starship just nailed something it’s never done before
Nevertheless, more details are coming out about Starship, and Musk is doing the talking.
Starship Will Be Retrieved in the Ocean
Musk revealed on Tuesday night that Starship would be recovered by a ship in the Indian Ocean. SpaceX routinely tries to recover Starship after splashdown in an effort to find out more about the flight by examining the spacecraft afterward.
We’re sending a ship out to recover Starship https://t.co/fUqUZTITO9
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 28, 2026
This helps engineers find out more about why things might have happened, allows them to examine any potential damage or anomalies that might have occurred, and increases the chances of an even more successful flight next time thanks to the additional information recovered.
Ship Could Have Been Caught by Tower Arms, Musk claims
Musk has already indicated that SpaceX will plan to attempt a catch of Starship with the 14th test flight. While this would be a major accomplishment, it would be an expected next step, considering the fact that the Super Heavy Booster has already been caught by the chopsticks on numerous occasions.
The ship landing was precise, meaning that it would have been caught by the tower arms https://t.co/6nbNrRfX9P
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 29, 2026
A ship catch would be a great indication of where SpaceX stands in terms of reusability and launch cadence. A successful catch with relatively no incidents would be a good sign that SpaceX is nearing a more frequent launch of Starship, but also that the reusability of the massive rocket would be something many would expect in the near future.
It is a necessity to make life multiplanetary.
Elon Musk has updated his timeline for when humans will walk on Mars and for when ships will simply get there.
The objective of getting to Mars has been one of Musk’s biggest goals since becoming a serial entrepreneur and realizing that time on Earth is limited. Musk has said several times he hopes to die on Mars, and not by impact.
Musk now believes that people will be on Mars in “roughly 5 to 7 years.” He said that a Mars lander will get there “a few years sooner.”
People on Mars in roughly 5 to 7 years.
Mars lander a few years sooner.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 29, 2026
The response from Musk comes after NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman said that SpaceX’s biggest priority is the Moon and not Mars. Because of this, Isaacman conceded that he believes nuclear power and propulsion investments will provide “potentially the pathway with the fewest miracles required to put four people on Mars in the next 10 to 15 years.”
Of course, this is what NASA can do through taxpayer funding and nuclear investments, he added.
Musk’s grand ambitions are much more optimistic than most, and it is certainly a double-edged sword. This is not the first time timelines for Mars have been somewhat lofty, especially to those normal thinkers like you and me, not super geniuses like Musk.
In fact, the SpaceX and Tesla frontman has said on at least a dozen occasions that we could be on Mars in the coming years. Musk said 2020 would be the big year as early as 2009. In 2020, he was “highly confident” of a landing in 2026, and had even said 2024 in a best-case scenario.
The point is, the range has varied, and it’s anyone’s guess when we’ll get there. This latest adjustment to the timeline is typical of Musk, and while the Moon has seemingly taken priority over Mars, it is still worth mentioning that the ultimate goal is to make life multiplanetary, and it starts potentially with the Red Planet.
SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) got an absolutely crazy price target rating from Raymond James after the company experienced a tough first few weeks following its Initial Public Offering (IPO).
Despite the tumultuous start, SpaceX has plenty of believers, and the company’s massively successful Starship launch last Friday, its 13th test flight of the massive rocket, went so smoothly that Raymond James analysts pushed its price target on the company to roughly 7 times its current trading level.
SpaceX Starship just nailed something it’s never done before
The firm officially put a “Strong Buy” rating and an $800 price target on the stock. It currently trades at around $113. Its all-time high is $225.64, reaching this trading level shortly after shares first went public.
Raymond James’ price target is tied to the firm’s confidence after Starship’s 13th test flight. Analysts at the firm said it was an incremental step that reduces engineering risks, citing the widely successful heat shield test that CEO Elon Musk recently detailed, the smooth deployment of Starlink V3 satellites, and a successful in-space engine relight.
SpaceX also managed to see Starship splash down safely in the Indian Ocean, while the Super Heavy Booster fell down to the Gulf of America with no incidents.
It is interesting to see these launches have such a tremendous impact on the stock and what investors think of it. After SpaceX initially delayed the Starship launch last week, shares fell tremendously. Most probably did not realize that the stand-down is a standard practice, especially if everything is not perfect.
The mission was initially aborted due to an issue with Raptor engines. This was resolved, and Starship launched last Friday after another delay on Thursday, which was caused by weather.
Now that analysts have seen what SpaceX launches are capable of and how impressive the feat is, firms are adjusting their price targets accordingly, making it known that they have high expectations for the space exploration company.
Elon Musk sheds two new bits of detail on Starship after 13th test launch
Elon Musk updates the SpaceX timeline for Mars
