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SpaceX Crew Dragon spacecraft splashes down with NASA, ESA astronauts
Update: A SpaceX Crew Dragon spacecraft carrying four NASA and ESA astronauts has safely splashed down off the coast of Florida, wrapping up an exceptionally busy four weeks of Dragon launch, docking, undocking, and recovery operations.
For the second time in ten days, a SpaceX Crew Dragon spacecraft has undocked from the International Space Station (ISS) and is on its way back to Earth.
This time around, four professional Crew-3 astronauts from NASA and ESA boarded Crew Dragon and departed the station after almost six months in orbit, handing off command and control of the US segment to Crew-4. After grappling with a 12-day delay, SpaceX successfully launched Crew-4 to the ISS on April 27th and the astronauts arrived at the station later the same day. Crew-4 was only able to launch after a separate crew of exclusively private astronauts known as Axiom-1 finally departed the ISS on April 24th.
Falcon 9 launched Axiom-1 and Crew Dragon on April 8th on what was initially supposed to be a 10-12 day mission in orbit. As a result of extensive weather-related recovery delays, Axiom-1 instead splashed down on April 25th. Those collective delays ultimately gave Crew-3 around two extra weeks in orbit before Crew-4 was able to take over, freeing them up to return to Earth.
NASA astronauts Raja Chari, Tom Marshburn, Kayla Barron, and German ESA astronaut Matthias Maurer began preparing for their departure in earnest about half a day prior on May 4th and boarded Dragon a few hours before undocking. Now verging on routine, Crew Dragon undocked from the ISS without issue at 1:20 am EDT on May 5th, kicking off a roughly 24-hour return to Earth.
Crew-3’s Dragon will perform a final deorbit burn shortly before midnight on May 6th and, if all goes well, the spacecraft’s reusable capsule will splash down off the coast of Florida a bit before 1am EDT. It will be Crew Dragon’s second astronaut reentry and splashdown in ten days after Axiom-1 completed the same process on April 25th.
In just four weeks, SpaceX will have launched Ax-1, docked Ax-1 with the ISS, undocked and recovered Ax-1; launched Crew-4, docked Crew-4 with the ISS; and undocked and recovered Crew-3 – a series of eight major Dragon operations involving three of the company’s fleet of four reusable orbital spacecraft. Given the numerous delays suffered by all three missions as a result of their close proximity, it would be hardly surprising if NASA and SpaceX explicitly try to avoid that level of cadence for future ISS-related Dragon operations.
Nonetheless, SpaceX and NASA are already in the late stages of preparing an uncrewed variant of Dragon 2 for the company’s 25th ISS cargo delivery. CRS-25 is scheduled to launch as early as June 7th and will be SpaceX’s third Dragon launch and third mission to the ISS in less than two months. Later this year, SpaceX Dragons are scheduled to support CRS-26 in September, Axiom-2 as early as Q3 2022, Crew-5 in October, and Polaris Dawn – a free-flyer mission – in Q4 2022.
Elon Musk
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX has issued an initial statement about Starship Booster 18’s anomaly early Friday. The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX’s initial comment
As per SpaceX in a post on its official account on social media platform X, Booster 18 was undergoing gas system pressure tests when the anomaly happened. Despite the nature of the incident, the company emphasized that no propellant was loaded, no engines were installed, and personnel were kept at a safe distance from the booster, resulting in zero injuries.
“Booster 18 suffered an anomaly during gas system pressure testing that we were conducting in advance of structural proof testing. No propellant was on the vehicle, and engines were not yet installed. The teams need time to investigate before we are confident of the cause. No one was injured as we maintain a safe distance for personnel during this type of testing. The site remains clear and we are working plans to safely reenter the site,” SpaceX wrote in its post on X.
Incident and aftermath
Livestream footage from LabPadre showed Booster 18’s lower half crumpling around the liquid oxygen tank area at approximately 4:04 a.m. CT. Subsequent images posted by on-site observers revealed extensive deformation across the booster’s lower structure. Needless to say, spaceflight observers have noted that Booster 18 would likely be a complete loss due to its anomaly.
Booster 18 had rolled out only a day earlier and was one of the first vehicles in the Starship V3 program. The V3 series incorporates structural reinforcements and reliability upgrades intended to prepare Starship for rapid-reuse testing and eventual tower-catch operations. Elon Musk has been optimistic about Starship V3, previously noting on X that the spacecraft might be able to complete initial missions to Mars.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
Elon Musk
SpaceX Starship Version 3 booster crumples in early testing
Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
SpaceX’s new Starship first-stage booster, Booster 18, suffered major damage early Friday during its first round of testing in Starbase, Texas, just one day after rolling out of the factory.
Based on videos of the incident, the lower section of the rocket booster appeared to crumple during a pressurization test. Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
Booster test failure
SpaceX began structural and propellant-system verification tests on Booster 18 Thursday night at the Massey’s Test Site, only a few miles from Starbase’s production facilities, as noted in an Ars Technica report. At 4:04 a.m. CT on Friday, a livestream from LabPadre Space captured the booster’s lower half experiencing a sudden destructive event around its liquid oxygen tank section. Post-incident images, shared on X by @StarshipGazer, showed notable deformation in the booster’s lower structure.
Neither SpaceX nor Elon Musk had commented as of Friday morning, but the vehicle’s condition suggests it is likely a complete loss. This is quite unfortunate, as Booster 18 is already part of the Starship V3 program, which includes design fixes and upgrades intended to improve reliability. While SpaceX maintains a rather rapid Starship production line in Starbase, Booster 18 was generally expected to validate the improvements implemented in the V3 program.
Tight deadlines
SpaceX needs Starship boosters and upper stages to begin demonstrating rapid reuse, tower catches, and early operational Starlink missions over the next two years. More critically, NASA’s Artemis program depends on an on-orbit refueling test in the second half of 2026, a requirement for the vehicle’s expected crewed lunar landing around 2028.
While SpaceX is known for diagnosing failures quickly and returning to testing at unmatched speed, losing the newest-generation booster at the very start of its campaign highlights the immense challenge involved in scaling Starship into a reliable, high-cadence launch system. SpaceX, however, is known for getting things done quickly, so it would not be a surprise if the company manages to figure out what happened to Booster 18 in the near future.
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
