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SpaceX’s BFR program pursuing advanced Starship heat shield with NASA help
According to a Space Act Agreement signed by SpaceX and NASA’s Ames Research Center in June 2018, the private company has begun working with NASA to acquire some basic experience and lessons-learned with a thermal protection (heat shield) material that is largely new to SpaceX.
Known as TUFROC (short for Toughened Uni-piece Fibrous Reinforced Oxidation-Resistant Composite), the NASA Ames-developed material is capable of withstanding temperatures as high as 1700 C (~3100 F) and is apparently an item of interest to SpaceX’s next-gen BFR (Starship/Super Heavy) rocket program, particularly Starship’s heat shield.
As far as the public is aware, SpaceX has never attempted to manufacture or utilize a heat shield technology like TUFROC. Falling under a domain of thermal protection materials known as ceramic matrix composites (CMCs), TUFROC is essentially an umbrella term that covers any thermal protection system that combines a carbon cap, silica base, and a cured glass coating to prevent oxidation. In recent years, Boeing’s secretive X-37B spaceplane has successfully demonstrated TUFROC reuse after orbital velocity reentries, confirming that the material is capable of surviving those conditions while experiencing minimal to no ablation.
Contour remains approx same, but fundamental materials change to airframe, tanks & heatshield
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) November 25, 2018
Much like SpaceX borrowed the NASA-developed PICA (phenolic-impregnated carbon ablator) heat shield technology and dramatically improved it for cost-effective use on Cargo (and soon Crew) Dragon, the basic concept behind TUFROC’s heat shielding capabilities likely lends itself just as well to potential improvements in cost reduction, ease of manufacturing, mechanical strength, thermal protection characteristics, and more.
Unlike the fatally fragile carbon-carbon tiles used on the Space Shuttle, TUFROC’s namesake “Fibrous Reinforced” aspects also make it dramatically more resistant to impact related forces like those that led to the Columbia disaster, while still preserving the composite’s impressive heat resistance. NASA already categorizes TUFROC as a “low-cost” TPS, further indicating that SpaceX could quite easily cut the cost of production by a significant degree.
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- Boeing’s X-37B spaceplane. (Boeing)
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- A visualization of the location of X-37B’s limited TUFROC heat shielding. (NASA)
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- A closeup of BFS’ nose section, featuring impressively varied tile-sizes, joining methods, and extremely precise curves on the interface between canard wings and the hull. (SpaceX)
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- A view of BFS just after separating from its booster stage. (SpaceX)
What is not clear about this budding relationship is how exactly SpaceX foresees TUFROC or a custom heat shield derivative fitting into its BFR program. Currently, the TPS has only been demonstrated on X-37B as a literal edge-case, standing in for a more traditional silica tile on the leading edges of the small spacecraft’s wings, where reentry heating is often the most extreme. It’s possible that SpaceX is interested in TUFROC for the same reasons – using it to cover BFS/Starship’s forward and rear fins and nothing more.
However, it could be the case that SpaceX hopes an improved TUFROC-X might be viable as a monolithic one-size-fits-all heat shield material throughout BFR’s Super Heavy booster and Starship upper stage. Being forced to deal with a variety of different TPS materials inevitably raises the complexity and cost of a given spacecraft, so being able to significantly reduce the number of materials needed could be a boon for Starship.
NASA and SpaceX’s Space Act Agreement can be found here [PDF].
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Another Tesla Model 3 variant sold out for January 2026 in China
A look at Tesla China’s order page shows that new Model 3 LR RWD orders now have an estimated delivery date of February 2026.
Another Tesla Model 3 variant in China appears to have sold out for January 2026, with the vehicle now showing an estimated delivery date of February 2026 for new orders. This bodes well for the all-electric sedan, which has maintained notable sales despite more affordable rivals like the Xiaomi SU7 and its crossover sibling, the Model Y.
Model 3 LR RWD joins February 2026 queue
A look at Tesla China’s order page for the all-electric sedan shows that new Model 3 Long Range Rear Wheel Drive orders now have an estimated delivery date of February 2026. Priced from RMB 259,500 ($36,810), the LR RWD sits as the second-lowest-priced trim in Tesla China’s four-variant Model 3 lineup. The move follows a similar delivery timeframe for the Model 3 Performance, which remains the most expensive option for the vehicle, as noted in a CNEV Post report.
The estimated delivery dates of the two remaining Model 3 variants remain unchanged for now. The base RWD version, starting at RMB 235,500, and the LR AWD variant, priced from RMB 285,500, both continue to list estimated delivery times of 4-6 weeks. Tesla China, for its part, has continued to list in-stock Model 3 vehicles and is actively encouraging buyers to select inventory units for delivery before the end of the year.
Model Y delays and policy shifts
Delivery timelines for the Model Y in China are also stretching into 2026. All customized Model Y variants now show February 2026 as their estimated delivery date, except for the entry-level version, which still lists January 2026. Tesla has been urging customers since November to prioritize purchasing inventory vehicles, a push aimed at maximizing year-end deliveries.
Timing matters for Chinese buyers due to upcoming changes in government incentives. China’s new energy vehicle purchase tax exemption will be scaled back in 2026, which means customers who take delivery next year could face higher tax costs compared to those who are able to receive vehicles before the end of the year.
As per data from the China Passenger Car Association, Tesla recorded retail sales of 73,145 vehicles in November, down 0.47% year over year. From January through November, Tesla’s retail sales in China totaled 531,855 units, a 7.37% year-over-year drop.
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Wedbush’s Dan Ives sees ‘monster year’ ahead for Tesla amid AI push
In a post on X, the analyst stated that the electric vehicle maker could hit a $3 trillion market cap by the end of 2026 in a bullish scenario.
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives is doubling down on Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) long-term upside. In a post on X, the analyst stated that the electric vehicle maker could hit a $3 trillion market cap by the end of 2026 in a bullish scenario, thanks to the company’s efforts to develop and push its artificial intelligence programs.
An aggressive valuation upside
Ives, Wedbush’s global head of tech research, stated in his post that Tesla is entering a pivotal period as its autonomy and robotics ambitions move closer to commercialization. He expects Tesla’s market cap to reach $2 trillion in 2026, representing roughly 33% upside from current levels, with a bull case up to a $3 trillion market cap by year-end.
Overall, Ives noted that 2026 could become a “monster year” for TSLA. “Heading into 2026, this marks a monster year ahead for Tesla/Musk as the autonomous and robotics chapter begins. We believe Tesla hits a $2 trillion market cap in 2026 and in a bull case scenario $3 trillion by end of 2026… as the AI chapter takes hold at TSLA,” the analyst wrote.
Ives also reiterated his “Outperform” rating on TSLA stock, as well as his $600 per share price target.
Unsupervised Full-Self Driving tests
Fueling optimism is Tesla’s recent autonomous vehicle testing in Austin, Texas. Over the weekend, at least two Tesla Model Ys were spotted driving on public roads without a safety monitor or any other occupants. CEO Elon Musk later confirmed the footage of one of the vehicles on X, writing in a post that “testing is underway with no occupant in the car.”
It remains unclear whether the vehicle was supported by chase cars or remote monitoring, and Tesla has not disclosed how many vehicles are involved. That being said, Elon Musk stated a week ago that Tesla would be removing its Safety Monitors from its vehicles “within the next three weeks.” Based on the driverless vehicles’ sightings so far, it appears that Musk’s estimate may be right on the mark, at least for now.
News
Production-ready Tesla Cybercab hits showroom floor in San Jose
Tesla has implemented subtle but significant updates to both the Cybercab’s exterior and interior elements.
Tesla has showcased what appears to be a near-production-ready Cybercab at its Santana Row showroom in San Jose, California, giving visitors the closest look yet at the autonomous two-seater’s refined design.
Based on photos of the near-production-ready vehicle, the electric vehicle maker has implemented subtle but significant updates to both the Cybercab’s exterior and interior elements, making the vehicle look more polished and seemingly more comfortable than its prototypes from last year.
Exterior and interior refinements
The updated Cybercab, whose photos were initially shared by Tesla advocate Nic Cruz Patane, now features a new frameless window design, an extended bottom splitter on the front bumper, and a slightly updated rear hatch. It also includes a production-spec front lightbar with integrated headlights, new wheel covers, and a license plate bracket.
Notably, the vehicle now has two windshield wipers instead of the prototype’s single unit, along with powered door struts, seemingly for smoother opening of its butterfly doors. Inside, the Cybercab now sports what appears to be a redesigned dash and door panels, updated carpet material, and slightly refined seat cushions with new center cupholders. Its legroom seems to have gotten slightly larger as well.
Cybercab sightings
Sightings of the updated Cybercab have been abundant in recent months. At the end of October, the Tesla AI team teased some of the autonomous two-seater’s updates after it showed a photo of the vehicle being driven through an In-N-Out drive-through by employees in Halloween costumes. The photos of the Cybercab were fun, but they were significant, with longtime Tesla watchers noting that the company has a tradition of driving its prototypes through the fast food chain’s drive-throughs.
Even at the time, Tesla enthusiasts noticed that the Cybercab had received some design changes, such as segmented DRLs and headlamps, actual turn signals, and a splitter that’s a lot sharper. Larger door openings, which now seem to have been teasing the vehicle’s updated cabin, were also observed at the time.
Another Tesla Model 3 variant sold out for January 2026 in China
Wedbush’s Dan Ives sees ‘monster year’ ahead for Tesla amid AI push
