News
SpaceX’s next Starship prototype is already closing in on its first tests
Continuing a trend of massive steel rockets built in a matter of days and weeks instead of months, SpaceX’s next Starship prototype is already closing in on its first tests.
SpaceX’s newest vehicle is set to pick up where the third full-scale Starship prototype – coincidentally known as SN3 – left off after operator error lead to its premature destruction on April 3rd. Now a pile of scrap metal, that ship only made it partway through cryogenic proof testing when its upper tank – almost fully filled with chemically-neutral liquid nitrogen – toppled over and pulled the rest of the prototype with it. With (hopefully) improved test procedures, Starship SN4 is now set to carry that torch forward.
Following the late Starship SN1 and SN3 prototypes, SN4 is on track to be the third full-scale, functional Starship prototype built in a handful of weeks thanks to major factory upgrades SpaceX has completed in recent months. While the loss of any particular prototype is undoubtedly a setback each time it happens, such a high rate and (apparently) low cost of production means that no single failure should be a major disruption, allowing SpaceX to iterate incredibly quickly as it learns from a flurry of real-world tests.
Like SN3, SpaceX’s next prototype will soon be fully stacked and transported down the road from the factory to a nearby launch and test facility, both situated directly on the South Texas Gulf Coast. Based on SN1 and SN3, SN4 could be just a week or so away from that transport milestone. SN3, for example, reached Starship SN4’s current state of assembly around March 20th. Eight days later, the vehicle was moved to the launch pad for its first tests.
On April 12th, SpaceX technicians flipped Starship SN4’s aft-most section, doubling as a bottom dome of its liquid oxygen tank and a mounting point for three Raptor engines. Starship SN3 passed the same point around March 18th, just ten days before it was moved to the launch pad. Per SN3’s assembly schedule, it should be just 2-3 days before SpaceX wraps up Starship SN4’s engine section by adding another two rings, followed by the engine section’s integration with the rest of the rocket approximately 5-7 days from now.
Based on Starship SN3’s behavior before a badly-designed test triggered the series of events that destroyed it, the ship appeared to be performing extremely well with its upper (methane) tank almost completely full of super-cool liquid nitrogen. If Starship SN4 does a similarly good job and makes it through the rest of the test that SN3 was unable to, SpaceX has three Raptors already tested and ready to go for their first triple-engine static fire ever.
At this point, those engines are simply waiting in a nearby hangar for a Starship prototype to be declared flight (or at least static fire) worthy. Even more excitingly, should both the engines and the Starship in question perform flawlessly during those tests, the first flights are expected to follow very soon after. Whether it’s able to summit that particular hurdle, Starship SN4’s current rate of production suggests that the ship will be ready to kick off testing later this month, perhaps less than three weeks after its predecessor kicked the bucket. Stay tuned!
Elon Musk
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX has issued an initial statement about Starship Booster 18’s anomaly early Friday. The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX’s initial comment
As per SpaceX in a post on its official account on social media platform X, Booster 18 was undergoing gas system pressure tests when the anomaly happened. Despite the nature of the incident, the company emphasized that no propellant was loaded, no engines were installed, and personnel were kept at a safe distance from the booster, resulting in zero injuries.
“Booster 18 suffered an anomaly during gas system pressure testing that we were conducting in advance of structural proof testing. No propellant was on the vehicle, and engines were not yet installed. The teams need time to investigate before we are confident of the cause. No one was injured as we maintain a safe distance for personnel during this type of testing. The site remains clear and we are working plans to safely reenter the site,” SpaceX wrote in its post on X.
Incident and aftermath
Livestream footage from LabPadre showed Booster 18’s lower half crumpling around the liquid oxygen tank area at approximately 4:04 a.m. CT. Subsequent images posted by on-site observers revealed extensive deformation across the booster’s lower structure. Needless to say, spaceflight observers have noted that Booster 18 would likely be a complete loss due to its anomaly.
Booster 18 had rolled out only a day earlier and was one of the first vehicles in the Starship V3 program. The V3 series incorporates structural reinforcements and reliability upgrades intended to prepare Starship for rapid-reuse testing and eventual tower-catch operations. Elon Musk has been optimistic about Starship V3, previously noting on X that the spacecraft might be able to complete initial missions to Mars.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
Elon Musk
SpaceX Starship Version 3 booster crumples in early testing
Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
SpaceX’s new Starship first-stage booster, Booster 18, suffered major damage early Friday during its first round of testing in Starbase, Texas, just one day after rolling out of the factory.
Based on videos of the incident, the lower section of the rocket booster appeared to crumple during a pressurization test. Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
Booster test failure
SpaceX began structural and propellant-system verification tests on Booster 18 Thursday night at the Massey’s Test Site, only a few miles from Starbase’s production facilities, as noted in an Ars Technica report. At 4:04 a.m. CT on Friday, a livestream from LabPadre Space captured the booster’s lower half experiencing a sudden destructive event around its liquid oxygen tank section. Post-incident images, shared on X by @StarshipGazer, showed notable deformation in the booster’s lower structure.
Neither SpaceX nor Elon Musk had commented as of Friday morning, but the vehicle’s condition suggests it is likely a complete loss. This is quite unfortunate, as Booster 18 is already part of the Starship V3 program, which includes design fixes and upgrades intended to improve reliability. While SpaceX maintains a rather rapid Starship production line in Starbase, Booster 18 was generally expected to validate the improvements implemented in the V3 program.
Tight deadlines
SpaceX needs Starship boosters and upper stages to begin demonstrating rapid reuse, tower catches, and early operational Starlink missions over the next two years. More critically, NASA’s Artemis program depends on an on-orbit refueling test in the second half of 2026, a requirement for the vehicle’s expected crewed lunar landing around 2028.
While SpaceX is known for diagnosing failures quickly and returning to testing at unmatched speed, losing the newest-generation booster at the very start of its campaign highlights the immense challenge involved in scaling Starship into a reliable, high-cadence launch system. SpaceX, however, is known for getting things done quickly, so it would not be a surprise if the company manages to figure out what happened to Booster 18 in the near future.
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
