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SpaceX’s next Starship prototype is already closing in on its first tests
Continuing a trend of massive steel rockets built in a matter of days and weeks instead of months, SpaceX’s next Starship prototype is already closing in on its first tests.
SpaceX’s newest vehicle is set to pick up where the third full-scale Starship prototype – coincidentally known as SN3 – left off after operator error lead to its premature destruction on April 3rd. Now a pile of scrap metal, that ship only made it partway through cryogenic proof testing when its upper tank – almost fully filled with chemically-neutral liquid nitrogen – toppled over and pulled the rest of the prototype with it. With (hopefully) improved test procedures, Starship SN4 is now set to carry that torch forward.
Following the late Starship SN1 and SN3 prototypes, SN4 is on track to be the third full-scale, functional Starship prototype built in a handful of weeks thanks to major factory upgrades SpaceX has completed in recent months. While the loss of any particular prototype is undoubtedly a setback each time it happens, such a high rate and (apparently) low cost of production means that no single failure should be a major disruption, allowing SpaceX to iterate incredibly quickly as it learns from a flurry of real-world tests.
Like SN3, SpaceX’s next prototype will soon be fully stacked and transported down the road from the factory to a nearby launch and test facility, both situated directly on the South Texas Gulf Coast. Based on SN1 and SN3, SN4 could be just a week or so away from that transport milestone. SN3, for example, reached Starship SN4’s current state of assembly around March 20th. Eight days later, the vehicle was moved to the launch pad for its first tests.
On April 12th, SpaceX technicians flipped Starship SN4’s aft-most section, doubling as a bottom dome of its liquid oxygen tank and a mounting point for three Raptor engines. Starship SN3 passed the same point around March 18th, just ten days before it was moved to the launch pad. Per SN3’s assembly schedule, it should be just 2-3 days before SpaceX wraps up Starship SN4’s engine section by adding another two rings, followed by the engine section’s integration with the rest of the rocket approximately 5-7 days from now.
Based on Starship SN3’s behavior before a badly-designed test triggered the series of events that destroyed it, the ship appeared to be performing extremely well with its upper (methane) tank almost completely full of super-cool liquid nitrogen. If Starship SN4 does a similarly good job and makes it through the rest of the test that SN3 was unable to, SpaceX has three Raptors already tested and ready to go for their first triple-engine static fire ever.
At this point, those engines are simply waiting in a nearby hangar for a Starship prototype to be declared flight (or at least static fire) worthy. Even more excitingly, should both the engines and the Starship in question perform flawlessly during those tests, the first flights are expected to follow very soon after. Whether it’s able to summit that particular hurdle, Starship SN4’s current rate of production suggests that the ship will be ready to kick off testing later this month, perhaps less than three weeks after its predecessor kicked the bucket. Stay tuned!
Elon Musk
Elon Musk shares insights on SpaceX and Tesla’s potential scale
In a pair of recent posts on X, Musk argued that both companies operate in domains where growth is not linear, but exponential.
Elon Musk outlined why he believes Tesla and SpaceX ultimately dwarf their competitors, pointing to autonomy, robotics, and space-based energy as forces that fundamentally reshape economic scale.
In a pair of recent posts on X, Musk argued that both companies operate in domains where growth is not linear, but exponential.
Space-based energy
In a response to a user on X who observed that SpaceX has a larger valuation than all six US defense companies combined, Musk explained that space-based industries will eventually surpass the total economic value of Earth. He noted that space allows humanity to harness roughly 100,000 times more energy than Earth currently uses, while still consuming less than a millionth of the Sun’s total energy output.
That level of available energy should enable the emergence and development of industries that are simply not possible within Earth’s physical and environmental constraints. Continuous solar exposure in space, as per Musk’s comment, removes limitations imposed by atmosphere, weather, and land availability.
Autonomy and robots
In a follow-up post, Elon Musk explaned that “due to autonomy, Tesla is worth more than the rest of the auto industry.” Musk added that this assessment does not yet account for Optimus, Tesla’s humanoid robot. As per the CEO, once Optimus reaches scaled production, it could increase Earth’s gross domestic product by an order of magnitude, ultimately paving the way for sustainable abundance.
Even before the advent of Optimus, however, Tesla’s autonomous driving system already gives vehicles the option to become revenue-generating assets through services like the Tesla Robotaxi network. Tesla’s autonomous efforts seem to be on the verge of paying off, as services like the Robotaxi network have already been launched in its initial stages in Austin and the Bay Area.
News
Tesla Cybercab undergoes winter testing as Elon Musk reiterates production start date
CEO Elon Musk confirmed the timeline in a recent post on X, while Tesla’s official social media accounts separately revealed that Cybercab prototypes are now undergoing winter testing in Alaska.
Tesla has reiterated that production of its fully autonomous Cybercab is set to begin in April, even as the company continues expanding real-world testing of the vehicle.
CEO Elon Musk confirmed the timeline in a recent post on X, while Tesla’s official social media accounts separately revealed that Cybercab prototypes are now undergoing winter testing in Alaska.
Musk confirms April Cybercab initial production
In a post on X, Musk reiterated that Cybercab production is scheduled to begin in April, reiterating his guidance about the vehicle’s manufacturing timeline. Around the same time, Tesla shared images showing the Cybercab undergoing cold-weather testing in Alaska. Interestingly enough, the Cybercab prototypes being tested in Alaska seemed to be equipped with snow tires.
Winter testing in Alaska suggests Tesla is preparing the Cybercab for deployment across a wide range of climates in the United States. Cold temperatures, snow, ice, and reduced traction present some of the most demanding scenarios for autonomous systems, making Alaska a logical proving ground for a vehicle designed to operate without a human driver.
Taken together, Musk’s production update and Tesla’s testing post indicate that while the Cybercab is nearing the start of manufacturing, validation efforts are still actively ramping to ensure reliability in real-world environments.
What early Cybercab production might look like
Musk has previously cautioned that the start of Cybercab manufacturing will be slow, reflecting the challenges of launching an all-new vehicle platform. In a recent comment, Musk said initial production typically follows an S-curve, with early output constrained by how many new parts and processes are involved.
According to Musk, both Cybercab and Optimus fall into this category, as “almost everything is new.” As a result, early production rates are expected to be very deliberate before eventually accelerating rapidly as manufacturing processes mature.
“Initial production is always very slow and follows an S-curve. The speed of production ramp is inversely proportionate to how many new parts and steps there are. For Cybercab and Optimus, almost everything is new, so the early production rate will be agonizingly slow, but eventually end up being insanely fast,” Musk wrote in a post on X.
Tesla will increase its Full Self-Driving subscription price, meaning it will eventually be more than the current $99 per month price tag it has right now.
Already stating that the ability to purchase the suite outright will be removed, Tesla CEO Elon Musk said earlier this week that the Full Self-Driving subscription price would increase when its capabilities improve:
“I should also mention that the $99/month for supervised FSD will rise as FSD’s capabilities improve. The massive value jump is when you can be on your phone or sleeping for the entire ride (unsupervised FSD).”
This was an expected change, especially as Tesla has been hinting for some time that it is approaching a feature-complete version of Full Self-Driving that will no longer require driver supervision. However, with the increase, some are concerned that they may be priced out.
$99 per month is already a tough ask for some. While Full Self-Driving is definitely worth it just due to the capabilities, not every driver is ready to add potentially 50 percent to their car payment each month to have it.
While Tesla has not revealed any target price for FSD, it does seem that it will go up to at least $150.
I should also mention that the $99/month for supervised FSD will rise as FSD’s capabilities improve.
The massive value jump is when you can be on your phone or sleeping for the entire ride (unsupervised FSD). https://t.co/YDKhXN3aaG
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 23, 2026
Additionally, the ability to purchase the suite outright is also being eliminated on February 14, which gives owners another reason to be slightly concerned about whether they will be able to afford to continue paying for Full Self-Driving in any capacity.
Some owners have requested a tiered program, which would allow people to pay for the capabilities they want at a discounted price.
Unsupervised FSD would be the most expensive, and although the company started removing Autopilot from some vehicles, it seems a Supervised FSD suite would still attract people to pay between $49 and $99 per month, as it is very useful.
Tesla will likely release pricing for the Unsupervised suite when it is available, but price increases could still come to the Supervised version as things improve.
This is not the first time Musk has hinted that the price would change with capability improvements, either. He’s been saying it for some time. In 2020, he even said the value of FSD would “probably be somewhere in excess of $100,000.”
The FSD price will continue to rise as the software gets closer to full self-driving capability with regulatory approval. It that point, the value of FSD is probably somewhere in excess of $100,000.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) May 18, 2020
Elon Musk shares insights on SpaceX and Tesla’s potential scale
Tesla Cybercab undergoes winter testing as Elon Musk reiterates production start date
