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SpaceX’s next three-Raptor Starship static fire delayed by winds, says Elon Musk
CEO Elon Musk says that SpaceX’s second three-Raptor Starship static fire test has been delayed several days by bad weather at the company’s South Texas launch facilities.
Prior to Musk’s tweet, all signs pointed to a second static fire test as early as 5am to 11am CDT on Friday, October 30th – made official by a paper safety notice SpaceX distributes to remaining Boca Chica Village residents around 12-24 hours prior. Unfortunately, however, Musk says that SpaceX ran into “some challenges with high winds” – seemingly canceling today’s static fire attempt.
On the other hand, there’s a chance that SpaceX’s October 30th safety warning and 5am-11am window could be for Starship SN8’s first wet dress rehearsal (WDR) with a nosecone (and thus a liquid oxygen header tank) installed. A wet dress rehearsal refers to the process of putting a rocket through a flow identical to what is done on launch day – albeit short of actually igniting or launching the rocket. In that sense, it’s essentially one step shorter than a static fire.
Road closure filings prior to November 1st are ambiguous, however, with no specific purpose disclosed. Technically, as long as SpaceX doesn’t perform a static fire or flight test without giving residents significant prior notice and necessary FAA/FCC approvals, road closures can more or less be used to whatever end the company deems necessary.
As far as triple-Raptor static fire testing goes, it’s unclear how anything less than mechanically dangerous wind conditions could interfere with Starship. Given that winds of 20-30 mph (and gusts even higher) are far from uncommon on the South Texas coast, Starship will need to be able to tolerate – and launch in – even worse weather.
Prototype testing is substantially different than operational flight procedures, though, and well-characterized test conditions and repeatability are essential for a company like SpaceX where the ‘build-test-fly-fail’ philosophy is the foundation of R&D. The process of functionally and permanently mating Starship SN8’s tank/engine and nose sections – a first for the Starship program – began less than ten days ago, so Musk is most likely referring to wind disrupting SN8’s on-pad integration.
SpaceX’s extensive reliance upon wheeled boom lifts to ferry workers around and inside Starship SN8 and the sheer scale and surface area of the rocket likely translate to an unsteady and relatively unsafe work environment in high winds.
Regardless of whether SpaceX actually puts Starship SN8 through any kind of tests on October 30th, the company has four more road closures (i.e. test windows) scheduled from Sunday to Wednesday. Aside from a 7pm to 1am CST (UTC-6) window on November 1st, SpaceX’s Mon-Wed testing will occur between 9am and 11pm. In Cameron County, Texas regulatory documents, SpaceX says it will use those windows for “SN8 Nose Cone Cryoproof” testing, referring to the process of filling the rocket’s tanks with supercool liquid nitrogen to verify their behavior at extreme temperatures.
News
Wedbush’s Dan Ives sees ‘monster year’ ahead for Tesla amid AI push
In a post on X, the analyst stated that the electric vehicle maker could hit a $3 trillion market cap by the end of 2026 in a bullish scenario.
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives is doubling down on Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) long-term upside. In a post on X, the analyst stated that the electric vehicle maker could hit a $3 trillion market cap by the end of 2026 in a bullish scenario, thanks to the company’s efforts to develop and push its artificial intelligence programs.
An aggressive valuation upside
Ives, Wedbush’s global head of tech research, stated in his post that Tesla is entering a pivotal period as its autonomy and robotics ambitions move closer to commercialization. He expects Tesla’s market cap to reach $2 trillion in 2026, representing roughly 33% upside from current levels, with a bull case up to a $3 trillion market cap by year-end.
Overall, Ives noted that 2026 could become a “monster year” for TSLA. “Heading into 2026, this marks a monster year ahead for Tesla/Musk as the autonomous and robotics chapter begins. We believe Tesla hits a $2 trillion market cap in 2026 and in a bull case scenario $3 trillion by end of 2026… as the AI chapter takes hold at TSLA,” the analyst wrote.
Ives also reiterated his “Outperform” rating on TSLA stock, as well as his $600 per share price target.
Unsupervised Full-Self Driving tests
Fueling optimism is Tesla’s recent autonomous vehicle testing in Austin, Texas. Over the weekend, at least two Tesla Model Ys were spotted driving on public roads without a safety monitor or any other occupants. CEO Elon Musk later confirmed the footage of one of the vehicles on X, writing in a post that “testing is underway with no occupant in the car.”
It remains unclear whether the vehicle was supported by chase cars or remote monitoring, and Tesla has not disclosed how many vehicles are involved. That being said, Elon Musk stated a week ago that Tesla would be removing its Safety Monitors from its vehicles “within the next three weeks.” Based on the driverless vehicles’ sightings so far, it appears that Musk’s estimate may be right on the mark, at least for now.
News
Production-ready Tesla Cybercab hits showroom floor in San Jose
Tesla has implemented subtle but significant updates to both the Cybercab’s exterior and interior elements.
Tesla has showcased what appears to be a near-production-ready Cybercab at its Santana Row showroom in San Jose, California, giving visitors the closest look yet at the autonomous two-seater’s refined design.
Based on photos of the near-production-ready vehicle, the electric vehicle maker has implemented subtle but significant updates to both the Cybercab’s exterior and interior elements, making the vehicle look more polished and seemingly more comfortable than its prototypes from last year.
Exterior and interior refinements
The updated Cybercab, whose photos were initially shared by Tesla advocate Nic Cruz Patane, now features a new frameless window design, an extended bottom splitter on the front bumper, and a slightly updated rear hatch. It also includes a production-spec front lightbar with integrated headlights, new wheel covers, and a license plate bracket.
Notably, the vehicle now has two windshield wipers instead of the prototype’s single unit, along with powered door struts, seemingly for smoother opening of its butterfly doors. Inside, the Cybercab now sports what appears to be a redesigned dash and door panels, updated carpet material, and slightly refined seat cushions with new center cupholders. Its legroom seems to have gotten slightly larger as well.
Cybercab sightings
Sightings of the updated Cybercab have been abundant in recent months. At the end of October, the Tesla AI team teased some of the autonomous two-seater’s updates after it showed a photo of the vehicle being driven through an In-N-Out drive-through by employees in Halloween costumes. The photos of the Cybercab were fun, but they were significant, with longtime Tesla watchers noting that the company has a tradition of driving its prototypes through the fast food chain’s drive-throughs.
Even at the time, Tesla enthusiasts noticed that the Cybercab had received some design changes, such as segmented DRLs and headlamps, actual turn signals, and a splitter that’s a lot sharper. Larger door openings, which now seem to have been teasing the vehicle’s updated cabin, were also observed at the time.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst realizes one big thing about the stock: deliveries are losing importance
Tesla analyst Dan Levy of Barclays realized one big thing about the stock moving into 2026: vehicle deliveries are losing importance.
As a new era of Tesla seems to be on the horizon, the concern about vehicle deliveries and annual growth seems to be fading, at least according to many investors.
Even CEO Elon Musk has implied at times that the automotive side, as a whole, will only make up a small percentage of Tesla’s total valuation, as Optimus and AI begin to shine with importance.
He said in April:
“The future of the company is fundamentally based on large-scale autonomous cars and large-scale and large volume, vast numbers of autonomous humanoid robots.”
Almost all of Tesla’s value long-term will be from AI & robots, both vehicle & humanoid
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) September 11, 2023
Levy wrote in a note to investors that Tesla’s Q4 delivery figures “likely won’t matter for the stock.” Barclays said in the note that it expects deliveries to be “soft” for the quarter.
In years past, Tesla analysts, investors, and fans were focused on automotive growth.
Cars were truly the biggest thing the stock had to offer: Tesla was a growing automotive company with a lot of prowess in AI and software, but deliveries held the most impact, along with vehicle pricing. These types of things had huge impacts on the stock years ago.
In fact, several large swings occurred because of Tesla either beating or missing delivery estimates:
- January 3, 2022: +13.53%, record deliveries at the time
- January 3, 2023: -12.24%, missed deliveries
- July 2, 2024: +10.20%, beat delivery expectations
- October 3, 2022: -8.61%, sharp miss due to Shanghai factory shutdown
- July 2, 2020: +7.95%, topped low COVID-era expectations with sizeable beat on deliveries
It has become more apparent over the past few quarters that delivery estimates have significantly less focus from investors, who are instead looking for progress in AI, Optimus, Cybercab, and other projects.
These things are the future of the company, and although Tesla will always sell cars, the stock is more impacted by the software the vehicle is running, and not necessarily the vehicle itself.
Wedbush’s Dan Ives sees ‘monster year’ ahead for Tesla amid AI push
Production-ready Tesla Cybercab hits showroom floor in San Jose
