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SpaceX president teases Starship’s game-changing Starlink launch capabilities
SpaceX President and COO Gwynne Shotwell teased new information detailing the wealth of benefits that the next-generation Starship launch vehicle could bring for the deployment of the company’s Starlink internet satellite constellation.
Speaking at the Baron 2019 Investment Conference on October 25th, the SpaceX executive touched on a broad range of topics according to CNBC reporter Michael Sheetz. Baron did webcast most of the conference’s main events, of which all but Shotwell’s have been archived, but it looks like CNBC may have been the only media outlet given access in an official capacity.
Regardless, based on their reporting on Shotwell’s dialogue with Baron Funds CEO/CIO Ron Baron, the SpaceX executive was unprecedentedly candid and was more than happy to voice direct criticism of competitors like OneWeb, ULA, and Blue Origin.
Beyond Shotwell’s clear confidence that Starlink’s satellite technology is far beyond OneWeb and years ahead of Amazon’s Project Kuiper clone, she also touched on yet another strength: SpaceX’s very own vertically-integrated launch systems. OneWeb plans to launch the vast majority of its Phase 1 constellation on Arianespace’s commercial Soyuz rockets, with the launch contract alone expected to cost more than $1B for ~700 satellites.
SpaceX, on the other hand, owns, builds, and operates its own rocket factory and high-performance orbital launch vehicles and is the only company on Earth to have successfully fielded reusable rockets. In short, although Starlink’s voracious need for launch capacity will undoubtedly require some major direct investments, a large portion of SpaceX’s Starlink launch costs can be perceived as little more than the cost of propellant, work-hours, and recovery fleet operations. Boosters (and hopefully fairings) can be reused ad nauseum and so long as SpaceX sticks to its promise to put customer missions first, the practical opportunity cost of each Starlink launch should be close to zero.
In a perfect scenario, the only material cost of Starlink launches should be the satellites themselves and each expendable Falcon upper stage, which SpaceX has no plans to recover. Speaking prior to Starlink’s 60-satellite “v0.9” launch debut, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk stated that each prototype spacecraft ended up costing more to launch than to build, despite the fact that their first launch flew on a twice-flown Falcon 9 booster.
In fewer words, Musk thus implied that each Starlink satellite likely already costs significantly less than $500,000 even before SpaceX has begun to reap the full benefits of economies of scale. In fact, based on official 2016 figures that estimated the cost of each BFR booster/ship at less than $4M and Musk’s estimate that Starship could cut Starlink launch costs by a factor of 5, the cost of Starlink v0.9 production could have actually been as low as ~$350,000 apiece, with launch costs on the order of ~$20M.
Speaking a little over five months after Musk, Shotwell revealed that a single Starship-Super Heavy launch should be able to place at least 400 Starlink satellites in orbit – a combined payload mass of ~120 metric tons (265,000 lb). Even if the cost of a Starship launch remained identical to Starlink v0.9’s flight-proven Falcon 9, packing almost seven times as many Starlink satellites would singlehandedly cut the relative cost of launch per satellite by more than the 5X figure Musk noted.
In light of this new figure of 400 satellites per individual Starship launch, it’s far easier to understand why SpaceX took the otherwise ludicrous step of reserving space for tens of thousands more Starlink satellites. Even if SpaceX arrives at a worst-case-scenario and is only able to launch Starship-Super Heavy once every 4-8 weeks for the first several years, that could translate to 2400-4800 Starlink satellites placed in orbit every year. Given that 120 tons to LEO is well within Starship’s theoretical capabilities without orbital refueling, it’s entirely possible that Starship could surpass Falcon 9’s Starlink mass-to-orbit almost immediately after it completes its first orbital launch and recovery: a single Starship launch would be equivalent to almost 7 Falcon 9 missions.
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Elon Musk
Elon Musk shares insights on SpaceX and Tesla’s potential scale
In a pair of recent posts on X, Musk argued that both companies operate in domains where growth is not linear, but exponential.
Elon Musk outlined why he believes Tesla and SpaceX ultimately dwarf their competitors, pointing to autonomy, robotics, and space-based energy as forces that fundamentally reshape economic scale.
In a pair of recent posts on X, Musk argued that both companies operate in domains where growth is not linear, but exponential.
Space-based energy
In a response to a user on X who observed that SpaceX has a larger valuation than all six US defense companies combined, Musk explained that space-based industries will eventually surpass the total economic value of Earth. He noted that space allows humanity to harness roughly 100,000 times more energy than Earth currently uses, while still consuming less than a millionth of the Sun’s total energy output.
That level of available energy should enable the emergence and development of industries that are simply not possible within Earth’s physical and environmental constraints. Continuous solar exposure in space, as per Musk’s comment, removes limitations imposed by atmosphere, weather, and land availability.
Autonomy and robots
In a follow-up post, Elon Musk explaned that “due to autonomy, Tesla is worth more than the rest of the auto industry.” Musk added that this assessment does not yet account for Optimus, Tesla’s humanoid robot. As per the CEO, once Optimus reaches scaled production, it could increase Earth’s gross domestic product by an order of magnitude, ultimately paving the way for sustainable abundance.
Even before the advent of Optimus, however, Tesla’s autonomous driving system already gives vehicles the option to become revenue-generating assets through services like the Tesla Robotaxi network. Tesla’s autonomous efforts seem to be on the verge of paying off, as services like the Robotaxi network have already been launched in its initial stages in Austin and the Bay Area.
News
Tesla Cybercab undergoes winter testing as Elon Musk reiterates production start date
CEO Elon Musk confirmed the timeline in a recent post on X, while Tesla’s official social media accounts separately revealed that Cybercab prototypes are now undergoing winter testing in Alaska.
Tesla has reiterated that production of its fully autonomous Cybercab is set to begin in April, even as the company continues expanding real-world testing of the vehicle.
CEO Elon Musk confirmed the timeline in a recent post on X, while Tesla’s official social media accounts separately revealed that Cybercab prototypes are now undergoing winter testing in Alaska.
Musk confirms April Cybercab initial production
In a post on X, Musk reiterated that Cybercab production is scheduled to begin in April, reiterating his guidance about the vehicle’s manufacturing timeline. Around the same time, Tesla shared images showing the Cybercab undergoing cold-weather testing in Alaska. Interestingly enough, the Cybercab prototypes being tested in Alaska seemed to be equipped with snow tires.
Winter testing in Alaska suggests Tesla is preparing the Cybercab for deployment across a wide range of climates in the United States. Cold temperatures, snow, ice, and reduced traction present some of the most demanding scenarios for autonomous systems, making Alaska a logical proving ground for a vehicle designed to operate without a human driver.
Taken together, Musk’s production update and Tesla’s testing post indicate that while the Cybercab is nearing the start of manufacturing, validation efforts are still actively ramping to ensure reliability in real-world environments.
What early Cybercab production might look like
Musk has previously cautioned that the start of Cybercab manufacturing will be slow, reflecting the challenges of launching an all-new vehicle platform. In a recent comment, Musk said initial production typically follows an S-curve, with early output constrained by how many new parts and processes are involved.
According to Musk, both Cybercab and Optimus fall into this category, as “almost everything is new.” As a result, early production rates are expected to be very deliberate before eventually accelerating rapidly as manufacturing processes mature.
“Initial production is always very slow and follows an S-curve. The speed of production ramp is inversely proportionate to how many new parts and steps there are. For Cybercab and Optimus, almost everything is new, so the early production rate will be agonizingly slow, but eventually end up being insanely fast,” Musk wrote in a post on X.
Tesla will increase its Full Self-Driving subscription price, meaning it will eventually be more than the current $99 per month price tag it has right now.
Already stating that the ability to purchase the suite outright will be removed, Tesla CEO Elon Musk said earlier this week that the Full Self-Driving subscription price would increase when its capabilities improve:
“I should also mention that the $99/month for supervised FSD will rise as FSD’s capabilities improve. The massive value jump is when you can be on your phone or sleeping for the entire ride (unsupervised FSD).”
This was an expected change, especially as Tesla has been hinting for some time that it is approaching a feature-complete version of Full Self-Driving that will no longer require driver supervision. However, with the increase, some are concerned that they may be priced out.
$99 per month is already a tough ask for some. While Full Self-Driving is definitely worth it just due to the capabilities, not every driver is ready to add potentially 50 percent to their car payment each month to have it.
While Tesla has not revealed any target price for FSD, it does seem that it will go up to at least $150.
I should also mention that the $99/month for supervised FSD will rise as FSD’s capabilities improve.
The massive value jump is when you can be on your phone or sleeping for the entire ride (unsupervised FSD). https://t.co/YDKhXN3aaG
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 23, 2026
Additionally, the ability to purchase the suite outright is also being eliminated on February 14, which gives owners another reason to be slightly concerned about whether they will be able to afford to continue paying for Full Self-Driving in any capacity.
Some owners have requested a tiered program, which would allow people to pay for the capabilities they want at a discounted price.
Unsupervised FSD would be the most expensive, and although the company started removing Autopilot from some vehicles, it seems a Supervised FSD suite would still attract people to pay between $49 and $99 per month, as it is very useful.
Tesla will likely release pricing for the Unsupervised suite when it is available, but price increases could still come to the Supervised version as things improve.
This is not the first time Musk has hinted that the price would change with capability improvements, either. He’s been saying it for some time. In 2020, he even said the value of FSD would “probably be somewhere in excess of $100,000.”
The FSD price will continue to rise as the software gets closer to full self-driving capability with regulatory approval. It that point, the value of FSD is probably somewhere in excess of $100,000.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) May 18, 2020
Elon Musk shares insights on SpaceX and Tesla’s potential scale
Tesla Cybercab undergoes winter testing as Elon Musk reiterates production start date
