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SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket arrives in Florida for next NASA astronaut launch
The SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket booster tasked with launching Crew Dragon on its first operational NASA astronaut mission arrived in Florida on Tuesday after a three-day drive from Texas.
Second only to the arrival of the new Crew Dragon spacecraft (likely C207) that will ferry three NASA astronauts and one Japanese (JAXA) crew member to the International Space Station, this is a major milestone for SpaceX’s next astronaut launch. Like the Falcon 9 booster (B1058) that became the first commercial rocket in history to launch humans into orbit, Falcon 9 booster B1061 will fly for the first time with a crewed Crew Dragon.
NASA unsurprisingly requested new Falcon 9 rockets for SpaceX’s first few astronaut launches. However, in a major surprise, the space agency appears to have given SpaceX permission to reuse not only Crew Dragon capsules – but Falcon 9 boosters, too – as early as Crew-2. For Falcon 9 B1061, that could have major ramifications.
As of now, the timing of SpaceX’s Crew-1 launch is almost entirely dependent upon the successful completion of the ongoing Demo-2 Crew Dragon mission. SpaceX’s first astronaut-proven spacecraft is currently docked to the International Space Station (ISS) as one of the two astronauts it launched is hard at work performing spacewalks to repair and upgrade the orbital outpost. Crew Dragon C206 is scheduled to return to Earth with astronauts Bob Behnken and Doug Hurley no earlier than (NET) early August in what will be the spacecraft’s first attempted reentry, descent, and splashdown with humans onboard.
In many ways, Demo-2’s return to Earth will be the single biggest challenge of the entire mission for SpaceX and Crew Dragon, as the lives of its passengers will hinge more than ever on the sequential completion of multiple complex operations. Of course, Crew Dragon C201 already completed a flawless orbital launch debut, reentry, descent, and landing more than a year ago, but the stakes for Demo-2 will be as high as they can get with real lives on the line.
If Crew Dragon C206 manages to safely reenter Earth’s atmosphere, deploy parachutes, and gently splash down in the Atlantic Ocean, NASA and SpaceX say they will need just a few weeks to fully review the mission, inspect the spacecraft, and fully qualify Crew Dragon for operational missions. As such, assuming an early-August splashdown, Crew-1 could feasibly launch as early as September 2020.
With Falcon 9 booster B1061 already on hand at SpaceX’s Florida launch facilities, that target is that much more within reach. Notably, thanks to NASA unexpectedly giving SpaceX permission to launch astronauts on flight-proven rockets as early as Crew-2, Falcon 9 B1061 could technically become the first commercial rocket booster in history to launch astronauts twice if it’s successfully recovered after Crew-1. Of course, SpaceX could very well inject the booster directly into its fleet of rockets to support an ambitious H2 2020 launch manifest, but there is a clear chance that SpaceX will hold onto B1061 to reuse it on Crew-2 sometime in H1 2021. For now, though, the priority is safely launching four astronauts on Crew Dragon’s first operational mission.
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Elon Musk
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX has issued an initial statement about Starship Booster 18’s anomaly early Friday. The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX’s initial comment
As per SpaceX in a post on its official account on social media platform X, Booster 18 was undergoing gas system pressure tests when the anomaly happened. Despite the nature of the incident, the company emphasized that no propellant was loaded, no engines were installed, and personnel were kept at a safe distance from the booster, resulting in zero injuries.
“Booster 18 suffered an anomaly during gas system pressure testing that we were conducting in advance of structural proof testing. No propellant was on the vehicle, and engines were not yet installed. The teams need time to investigate before we are confident of the cause. No one was injured as we maintain a safe distance for personnel during this type of testing. The site remains clear and we are working plans to safely reenter the site,” SpaceX wrote in its post on X.
Incident and aftermath
Livestream footage from LabPadre showed Booster 18’s lower half crumpling around the liquid oxygen tank area at approximately 4:04 a.m. CT. Subsequent images posted by on-site observers revealed extensive deformation across the booster’s lower structure. Needless to say, spaceflight observers have noted that Booster 18 would likely be a complete loss due to its anomaly.
Booster 18 had rolled out only a day earlier and was one of the first vehicles in the Starship V3 program. The V3 series incorporates structural reinforcements and reliability upgrades intended to prepare Starship for rapid-reuse testing and eventual tower-catch operations. Elon Musk has been optimistic about Starship V3, previously noting on X that the spacecraft might be able to complete initial missions to Mars.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
Elon Musk
SpaceX Starship Version 3 booster crumples in early testing
Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
SpaceX’s new Starship first-stage booster, Booster 18, suffered major damage early Friday during its first round of testing in Starbase, Texas, just one day after rolling out of the factory.
Based on videos of the incident, the lower section of the rocket booster appeared to crumple during a pressurization test. Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
Booster test failure
SpaceX began structural and propellant-system verification tests on Booster 18 Thursday night at the Massey’s Test Site, only a few miles from Starbase’s production facilities, as noted in an Ars Technica report. At 4:04 a.m. CT on Friday, a livestream from LabPadre Space captured the booster’s lower half experiencing a sudden destructive event around its liquid oxygen tank section. Post-incident images, shared on X by @StarshipGazer, showed notable deformation in the booster’s lower structure.
Neither SpaceX nor Elon Musk had commented as of Friday morning, but the vehicle’s condition suggests it is likely a complete loss. This is quite unfortunate, as Booster 18 is already part of the Starship V3 program, which includes design fixes and upgrades intended to improve reliability. While SpaceX maintains a rather rapid Starship production line in Starbase, Booster 18 was generally expected to validate the improvements implemented in the V3 program.
Tight deadlines
SpaceX needs Starship boosters and upper stages to begin demonstrating rapid reuse, tower catches, and early operational Starlink missions over the next two years. More critically, NASA’s Artemis program depends on an on-orbit refueling test in the second half of 2026, a requirement for the vehicle’s expected crewed lunar landing around 2028.
While SpaceX is known for diagnosing failures quickly and returning to testing at unmatched speed, losing the newest-generation booster at the very start of its campaign highlights the immense challenge involved in scaling Starship into a reliable, high-cadence launch system. SpaceX, however, is known for getting things done quickly, so it would not be a surprise if the company manages to figure out what happened to Booster 18 in the near future.
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
