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SpaceX’s space-optimized Starship engine could be ready sooner than later
SpaceX CEO Elon Musk says that there is now a chance that a vacuum-optimized version of the Raptor engine will be ready for near-term Starship launches, indicating that development has either been re-prioritized or is going more smoothly than expected.
This is a significant shift away from a strategy discussed by Musk just four months ago, in which a single variant of Raptor was to be used on Starship and Super Heavy to shorten the next-gen rocket’s path to orbit. For unknown reasons, that approach may have already been replaced with a new alternative that would lead to a Starship with six Raptors instead of seven and a 50-50 split between vacuum and sea level-optimized engines.
Without a more specific development timeline, it’s unclear if RaptorSL-only versions of Starship will ever make it to orbit as a sort of interim solution. The fact that SpaceX is already considering an expedited vacuum variant bodes well for the current status of sea level engine testing, and Musk admittedly revealed that RaptorVac development was to be delayed just days before Raptor’s first full-scale static fire in February 2019.
Speaking less than four months ago, the purpose of delaying RaptorVac development was “to reach the moon as fast as possible.” As long as a Starship powered by unoptimized Raptors was capable of reaching the Moon, designing with RaptorVac in mind would create delays without adding any near-term benefits. The most obvious reasons that SpaceX would revert RaptorVac strategy are changes in technical confidence (i.e. full-scale Raptor testing is going better than expected) or SpaceX’s motivation to get to the Moon “as fast as possible”.
The latter explanation is certainly possible, especially in light of recent hints that there is a terminal lack of funding and Congressional interest in NASA’s Moon return proposal. SpaceX has its own commercial motivations for Starship to get to the Moon in short order, however, including some form of a contract with Japanese billionaire Yusaku Maezawa. As such, it seems more likely that SpaceX’s Raptor program is making rapid progress, outstretching the expectations of those holding the company’s strategic reins.
According to Musk, sea level-optimized Raptor development is proceeding so smoothly that SpaceX may be able to move into relatively high-volume production – more than two engines per week – this summer (June 1 to August 31). At the moment, SpaceX appears to be focused on testing Raptor at its McGregor, Texas development facilities. This is no surprise for a cutting-edge rocket engine less than four months into full-scale testing, as inevitable off-nominal or unexpected behavior revealed during test fires can often lead to design optimizations or even major changes.
Since the first finalized Raptor was delivered to McGregor in late January, SpaceX has completed an average of one new engine per month, all of which have then been tested in Texas. After completing its McGregor acceptance tests, SN03 also became the first Raptor engine to leave the ground under its own power as part of Starhopper’s first two tethered hops. According to Musk, Starhopper could return to ‘flight’ as early as May 31st.
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Elon Musk
Elon Musk reiterates Tesla Optimus’ most sci-fi potential yet
Musk shared his comments in a series of posts on social media platform X.
Elon Musk recently reiterated one of the most ambitious forecasts for Tesla’s humanoid robot, Optimus, stating it could become the first real-world example of a Von Neumann machine. He also noted once more that Optimus would be Tesla’s biggest product.
Musk shared his comments in a series of posts on social media platform X.
Optimus as a von Neumann machine
In response to a post on X that pondered on sci-fi timelines becoming real, Musk wrote that “Optimus will be the first Von Neumann machine, capable of building civilization by itself on any viable planet.” In a separate post, Musk wrote that Optimus will be Tesla’s “biggest product ever,” a phrase he has used in the past to describe the humanoid robot’s importance to the electric vehicle maker.
A Von Neumann machine is a class of theoretical self-replicating systems originally proposed in the mid-20th century by the mathematician John von Neumann. In his concept, von Neumann described machines that could travel to other worlds, use local materials to create copies of themselves, and carry out large-scale tasks without outside intervention.
Elon Musk’s broader plans
Considering Musk’s comments, it appears that Optimus would eventually be capable of performing complex work autonomously in environments beyond Earth. If Optimus could achieve such a feat, it could very well unlock humanity’s capability to explore locations beyond Earth. The idea of space exploration becomes more than feasible.
Elon Musk has discussed space-based AI compute, large-scale robotic production, and the role of SpaceX’s Starship in transporting hardware and materials to other planets. While Musk did not detail how Optimus would fit with SpaceX’s exploration activities, his Von Neumann machine comments suggest he is looking at Tesla’s robotics as part of a potential interplanetary ecosystem.
News
Tesla China January wholesale sales rise 9% year-on-year
Tesla reported January wholesale sales of 69,129 China-made vehicles, as per data released by the China Passenger Car Association.
Tesla China reported January wholesale sales of 69,129 Giga Shanghai-made vehicles, as per data released by the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA). The figure includes both domestic sales and exports from Gigafactory Shanghai.
The total represented a 9.32% increase from January last year but a 28.86% decline from December’s 97,171 units.
China EV market trends
The CPCA estimated that China’s passenger new energy vehicle wholesale volume reached about 900,000 units in January, up 1% year-on-year but down 42% from December. Demand has been pressured by the start-of-year slow season, a 5% additional purchase tax cost, and uncertainty around the transition of vehicle trade-in subsidies, as noted in a report from CNEV Post.
Market leader BYD sold 210,051 NEVs in January, down 30.11% year-on-year and 50.04% month-on-month, as per data released on February 1. Tesla China’s year-over-year growth then is quite interesting, as the company’s vehicles seem to be selling very well despite headwinds in the market.
Tesla China’s strategies
To counter weaker seasonal demand, Tesla China launched a low-interest financing program on January 6, offering up to seven-year terms on select produced vehicles. The move marked the first time an automaker offered financing of that length in the Chinese market.
Several rivals, including Xiaomi, Li Auto, XPeng, and NIO, later introduced similar incentives. Tesla China then further increased promotions on January 26 by reinstating insurance subsidies for the Model 3 sedan. The CPCA is expected to release Tesla’s China retail sales and export breakdown later this month.
News
Tesla’s Apple CarPlay ambitions are not dead, they’re still in the works
For what it’s worth, as a Tesla owner, I don’t particularly see the need for CarPlay, as I have found the in-car system that the company has developed to be superior. However, many people are in love with CarPlay simply because, when it’s in a car that is capable, it is really great.
Tesla’s Apple CarPlay ambitions appeared to be dead in the water after a large amount of speculation late last year that the company would add the user interface seemed to cool down after several weeks of reports.
However, it appears that CarPlay might make its way to Tesla vehicles after all, as a recent report seems to indicate that it is still being worked on by software teams for the company.
The real question is whether it is truly needed or if it is just a want by so many owners that Tesla is listening and deciding to proceed with its development.
Back in November, Bloomberg reported that Tesla was in the process of testing Apple CarPlay within its vehicles, which was a major development considering the company had resisted adopting UIs outside of its own for many years.
Nearly one-third of car buyers considered the lack of CarPlay as a deal-breaker when buying their cars, a study from McKinsey & Co. outlined. This could be a driving decision in Tesla’s inability to abandon the development of CarPlay in its vehicles, especially as it lost a major advantage that appealed to consumers last year: the $7,500 EV tax credit.
Tesla owners propose interesting theory about Apple CarPlay and EV tax credit
Although we saw little to no movement on it since the November speculation, Tesla is now reportedly in the process of still developing the user interface. Mark Gurman, a Bloomberg writer with a weekly newsletter, stated that CarPlay is “still in the works” at Tesla and that more concrete information will be available “soon” regarding its development.
While Tesla already has a very capable and widely accepted user interface, CarPlay would still be an advantage, considering many people have used it in their vehicles for years. Just like smartphones, many people get comfortable with an operating system or style and are resistant to using a new one. This could be a big reason for Tesla attempting to get it in their own cars.
Tesla gets updated “Apple CarPlay” hack that can work on new models
For what it’s worth, as a Tesla owner, I don’t particularly see the need for CarPlay, as I have found the in-car system that the company has developed to be superior. However, many people are in love with CarPlay simply because, when it’s in a car that is capable, it is really great.
It holds one distinct advantage over Tesla’s UI in my opinion, and that’s the ability to read and respond to text messages, which is something that is available within a Tesla, but is not as user-friendly.
With that being said, I would still give CarPlay a shot in my Tesla. I didn’t particularly enjoy it in my Bronco Sport, but that was because Ford’s software was a bit laggy with it. If it were as smooth as Tesla’s UI, which I think it would be, it could be a really great addition to the vehicle.
Elon Musk reiterates Tesla Optimus’ most sci-fi potential yet
Tesla China January wholesale sales rise 9% year-on-year
