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NASA Artemis delegation tours SpaceX’s Starship factory and launch pad
Thanks to the failure of Blue Origin’s NASA Human Landing System (HLS) lawsuit, SpaceX and the space agency were finally able to get back to work last month.
Taking advantage of that, NASA astronauts and Artemis Program leaders recently took a tour of SpaceX’s South Texas Starship factory and launch pads – a massive hub of activity that the company has deemed Starbase. In doing so, save for updates from SpaceX and even members of the public over the last 6-9 months, NASA officials were finally able to get up close and personal with the progress SpaceX has made while the space agency was temporarily forced to halt all work on HLS.
While some aspects of SpaceX’s progress towards orbital Starship test flights were hampered by asymmetry between different programs, namely the readiness of Super Heavy and Starbase’s orbital launch site, SpaceX has still made some impressive progress in less than a year. At the start of 2021, Starbase’s lone orbital launch site was effectively a dirt lot and a fraction of the launch mount – the latter constructed well in advance of the rest of the pad. Less than a year later, that orbital launch site – including a skyscraper-sized launch tower, three massive arms, perhaps the most complex launch mount in spaceflight history, and the largest cryogenic tank farm ever built for a rocket – is on the verge of completion.
Several weeks of work are likely needed for SpaceX to finish and qualify the ~146m (~480 ft) launch tower’s ‘chopsticks’ – arms meant to lift and possibly catch Starships and Super Heavy boosters – and quick-disconnect swing arm, which fuels Starship and helps stabilize the rocket. The pad’s massive tank farm has also yet to be filled with any liquid methane fuel (LCH4).
However, that tank farm is complete enough – and filled with hundreds of tanker trucks of liquid oxygen and nitrogen – to begin extensive cryogenic proof testing with Super Heavy Booster 4 (B4), Starship’s first potentially fligthworthy booster. That process began on December 17th and a second cryogenic proof followed on December 21st. On the 22nd, SpaceX continued to expand the ambition of its booster testing and filled Super Heavy B4 more than any booster before it, loading it with two or three thousand tons (4.4M-6.6M lb) of cryogenic liquids in about two hours. There are signs that most of that liquid was actually liquid oxygen (LOx) – the oxidizer Starship will be filled with before launch – and both sides of the tank farm were visibly active.
In other words, once SpaceX is confident that the tank farm is safe to store liquid methane, the first Super Heavy wet dress rehearsals and static fire tests – eventually simulating full thrust just before liftoff – could begin almost immediately. Once the tower’s three arms are at least partially functional, SpaceX will also be able to install a Starship on top of Super Heavy for the second time and test a fully-integrated two-stage Starship launch vehicle for the first time, paving the way for the first orbital-velocity launch attempt as soon as as the FAA grants a license.
Though SpaceX technically hasn’t started building a prototype of the actual Starship Moon lander that will returns humans to the lunar surface, every single Starship and Super Heavy booster it builds and tests mature’s the foundation of that crewed variant’s design, as well as the fleet of boosters and ships that will be required to fuel it in orbit. By all appearances, Starship S20 – the first completed orbital-class prototye – has passed all the tests thrown at it and is ready for the program’s first orbital-velocity launch attempt. If the speed of recent testing continues, Super Heavy Booster 4 may not be far behind it.
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Xpeng CEO: Tesla FSD 14.2 has developed “near-Level 4” performance
While acknowledging that imperfections remain, the Xpeng CEO said FSD’s current iteration significantly surpasses last year’s capabilities.
Xpeng CEO He Xiaopeng has offered fresh praise for Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) system after revisiting Silicon Valley more than a year after his first hands-on experience.
Following extended test drives of Tesla vehicles running the latest FSD software, He stated that the system has made major strides, reinforcing his view that Tesla’s approach to autonomy is indeed the proper path towards autonomy.
Tesla FSD closing in on Level 4 driving
During his visit, He test-drove a Tesla equipped with FSD V14.2. He also rode in a Tesla Robotaxi. Over roughly five hours of driving across Silicon Valley and San Francisco, He said both vehicles delivered consistent and reassuring performance, a notable improvement from his experience a year earlier.
According to He, Tesla’s FSD has evolved from a smooth Level 2 advanced driver assistance system into what he described as a “near-Level 4” experience in terms of capabilities. While acknowledging that imperfections remain, the Xpeng CEO said FSD’s current iteration significantly surpasses last year’s capabilities. He also reiterated his belief that Tesla’s strategy of using the same autonomous software and hardware architecture across private vehicles and robotaxis is the right long-term approach, allowing users to bypass intermediate autonomy stages and move closer to Level 4 functionality.
He previously tested Tesla’s FSD V12.3.6 and Waymo vehicles in California in mid-2024, noting at the time that Waymo performed better in dense urban environments like San Francisco, while Tesla excelled in Silicon Valley and on highways.
Xpeng’s ambitious autonomy roadmap and internal challenge
The Silicon Valley visit also served as a benchmark for Xpeng’s own autonomy ambitions. He stated that Xpeng is looking to improve its VLA autonomous driving system to match the performance of Tesla’s FSD V14.2 within China by August 30, 2026. Xpeng is poised to release its VLA 2.0 smart driving software next quarter, though He cautioned that the initial version will not be able to match FSD V14.2’s capabilities, as noted in a CNEV Post report.
He also added a personal twist to the goal, publicly challenging Xpeng’s autonomous driving team. If the performance target is met by the 2026 deadline, the CEO stated that he will approve the creation of a Chinese-style cafeteria for Xpeng’s Silicon Valley team. If not, Liu Xianming, head of Xpeng’s autonomous driving unit, has pledged to run naked across the Golden Gate Bridge, He noted.
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Another Tesla Model 3 variant sold out for January 2026 in China
A look at Tesla China’s order page shows that new Model 3 LR RWD orders now have an estimated delivery date of February 2026.
Another Tesla Model 3 variant in China appears to have sold out for January 2026, with the vehicle now showing an estimated delivery date of February 2026 for new orders. This bodes well for the all-electric sedan, which has maintained notable sales despite more affordable rivals like the Xiaomi SU7 and its crossover sibling, the Model Y.
Model 3 LR RWD joins February 2026 queue
A look at Tesla China’s order page for the all-electric sedan shows that new Model 3 Long Range Rear Wheel Drive orders now have an estimated delivery date of February 2026. Priced from RMB 259,500 ($36,810), the LR RWD sits as the second-lowest-priced trim in Tesla China’s four-variant Model 3 lineup. The move follows a similar delivery timeframe for the Model 3 Performance, which remains the most expensive option for the vehicle, as noted in a CNEV Post report.
The estimated delivery dates of the two remaining Model 3 variants remain unchanged for now. The base RWD version, starting at RMB 235,500, and the LR AWD variant, priced from RMB 285,500, both continue to list estimated delivery times of 4-6 weeks. Tesla China, for its part, has continued to list in-stock Model 3 vehicles and is actively encouraging buyers to select inventory units for delivery before the end of the year.
Model Y delays and policy shifts
Delivery timelines for the Model Y in China are also stretching into 2026. All customized Model Y variants now show February 2026 as their estimated delivery date, except for the entry-level version, which still lists January 2026. Tesla has been urging customers since November to prioritize purchasing inventory vehicles, a push aimed at maximizing year-end deliveries.
Timing matters for Chinese buyers due to upcoming changes in government incentives. China’s new energy vehicle purchase tax exemption will be scaled back in 2026, which means customers who take delivery next year could face higher tax costs compared to those who are able to receive vehicles before the end of the year.
As per data from the China Passenger Car Association, Tesla recorded retail sales of 73,145 vehicles in November, down 0.47% year over year. From January through November, Tesla’s retail sales in China totaled 531,855 units, a 7.37% year-over-year drop.
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Wedbush’s Dan Ives sees ‘monster year’ ahead for Tesla amid AI push
In a post on X, the analyst stated that the electric vehicle maker could hit a $3 trillion market cap by the end of 2026 in a bullish scenario.
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives is doubling down on Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) long-term upside. In a post on X, the analyst stated that the electric vehicle maker could hit a $3 trillion market cap by the end of 2026 in a bullish scenario, thanks to the company’s efforts to develop and push its artificial intelligence programs.
An aggressive valuation upside
Ives, Wedbush’s global head of tech research, stated in his post that Tesla is entering a pivotal period as its autonomy and robotics ambitions move closer to commercialization. He expects Tesla’s market cap to reach $2 trillion in 2026, representing roughly 33% upside from current levels, with a bull case up to a $3 trillion market cap by year-end.
Overall, Ives noted that 2026 could become a “monster year” for TSLA. “Heading into 2026, this marks a monster year ahead for Tesla/Musk as the autonomous and robotics chapter begins. We believe Tesla hits a $2 trillion market cap in 2026 and in a bull case scenario $3 trillion by end of 2026… as the AI chapter takes hold at TSLA,” the analyst wrote.
Ives also reiterated his “Outperform” rating on TSLA stock, as well as his $600 per share price target.
Unsupervised Full-Self Driving tests
Fueling optimism is Tesla’s recent autonomous vehicle testing in Austin, Texas. Over the weekend, at least two Tesla Model Ys were spotted driving on public roads without a safety monitor or any other occupants. CEO Elon Musk later confirmed the footage of one of the vehicles on X, writing in a post that “testing is underway with no occupant in the car.”
It remains unclear whether the vehicle was supported by chase cars or remote monitoring, and Tesla has not disclosed how many vehicles are involved. That being said, Elon Musk stated a week ago that Tesla would be removing its Safety Monitors from its vehicles “within the next three weeks.” Based on the driverless vehicles’ sightings so far, it appears that Musk’s estimate may be right on the mark, at least for now.
Xpeng CEO: Tesla FSD 14.2 has developed “near-Level 4” performance
Another Tesla Model 3 variant sold out for January 2026 in China
