News
SpaceX returns to Starship program roots with new ‘test tank’ prototype
It’s now clear that SpaceX is preparing to return to the roots of its Starship program with the latest in a series of one-off ‘test tanks’ meant to qualify upgrades to the rocket’s design and production.
Likely known as Starship SN7.2, the hardware will be the first standalone tank built and tested by SpaceX since SN7.1 was successfully pressurized to failure in a process known as burst testing in September 2020. Following in the footsteps of SN7.1, a simple test tank fully focused on qualifying a change in the steel alloy used to build Starships, SN7.2 was somewhat more complex, swapping one of two smooth forward domes with a thrust dome and adding a ‘skirt’ section.
Built out of the same steel alloy as SN7.1, SN7.2 went through similar testing but included the use of a hydraulic ram designed to simulate the thrust of one, two, or three Raptors on the ‘thrust puck’ those engines would otherwise attach to. Starship test tank SN7.2 appears to be quite similar to SN7.1 – but with one or two crucial differences.
The first difference, as noted above, is a reduction in the thickness of the steel rings that make up the outer walls and structure of SN7.2’s barrel-like tank section. SpaceX is believed to have reduced that skin thickness by 25% (4mm to 3mm) in an apparent effort to begin a weight reduction process necessary for Starships to eventually achieve their optimal payload goal of ~150 metric tons (~330,000 lb) to low Earth orbit.
From some angles, SN7.2’s steel rings do appear slightly flimsier or more liable to warp from the heat of welding than other test tanks in the SN7 range, but the differences are rather subtle. Regardless, a reduction from 4mm to 3mm steel rings could likely cut 5-10% from an orbit-capable Starship’s empty weight. When every gram of Starship mass reduction translates directly into an extra gram of payload, it’s safe to say that SpaceX is just getting started.
It’s unclear if a successful SN7.2 test campaign will result in similar reductions to the steel that makes up Starship tank domes and noses. SN7.2’s forward and thrust domes appear to be more or less identical to almost all prior Starship prototype hardware.
Aside from thinner steel skin, it’s also possible that SpaceX will attempt to hit two birds with one stone and test a second unproven change on SN7.2 – namely an upgraded ‘thrust puck’ design. That new puck design first appeared on a November 2020 shipment from SpaceX’s Hawthorne, CA headquarters. Referring to the cone-like structure Starship’s three central Raptor engines attach to and are fed propellant through, the new design simplifies plumbing complexity by allowing Starship’s fuel and fuel header tanks to attach directly to and feed methane through the puck.
It’s unclear which thrust puck design SN7.2 has settled on, though SpaceX’s decision to make SN7.2 an engine section test tank arguably points towards the new puck. Regardless, SpaceX will almost certainly install a skirt section – two reinforced rings – underneath SN7.2 once the tank is welded together, giving it the hold-down clamps needed to secure it to a launch mount while simulating Raptor thrust.
News
Wedbush’s Dan Ives sees ‘monster year’ ahead for Tesla amid AI push
In a post on X, the analyst stated that the electric vehicle maker could hit a $3 trillion market cap by the end of 2026 in a bullish scenario.
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives is doubling down on Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) long-term upside. In a post on X, the analyst stated that the electric vehicle maker could hit a $3 trillion market cap by the end of 2026 in a bullish scenario, thanks to the company’s efforts to develop and push its artificial intelligence programs.
An aggressive valuation upside
Ives, Wedbush’s global head of tech research, stated in his post that Tesla is entering a pivotal period as its autonomy and robotics ambitions move closer to commercialization. He expects Tesla’s market cap to reach $2 trillion in 2026, representing roughly 33% upside from current levels, with a bull case up to a $3 trillion market cap by year-end.
Overall, Ives noted that 2026 could become a “monster year” for TSLA. “Heading into 2026, this marks a monster year ahead for Tesla/Musk as the autonomous and robotics chapter begins. We believe Tesla hits a $2 trillion market cap in 2026 and in a bull case scenario $3 trillion by end of 2026… as the AI chapter takes hold at TSLA,” the analyst wrote.
Ives also reiterated his “Outperform” rating on TSLA stock, as well as his $600 per share price target.
Unsupervised Full-Self Driving tests
Fueling optimism is Tesla’s recent autonomous vehicle testing in Austin, Texas. Over the weekend, at least two Tesla Model Ys were spotted driving on public roads without a safety monitor or any other occupants. CEO Elon Musk later confirmed the footage of one of the vehicles on X, writing in a post that “testing is underway with no occupant in the car.”
It remains unclear whether the vehicle was supported by chase cars or remote monitoring, and Tesla has not disclosed how many vehicles are involved. That being said, Elon Musk stated a week ago that Tesla would be removing its Safety Monitors from its vehicles “within the next three weeks.” Based on the driverless vehicles’ sightings so far, it appears that Musk’s estimate may be right on the mark, at least for now.
News
Production-ready Tesla Cybercab hits showroom floor in San Jose
Tesla has implemented subtle but significant updates to both the Cybercab’s exterior and interior elements.
Tesla has showcased what appears to be a near-production-ready Cybercab at its Santana Row showroom in San Jose, California, giving visitors the closest look yet at the autonomous two-seater’s refined design.
Based on photos of the near-production-ready vehicle, the electric vehicle maker has implemented subtle but significant updates to both the Cybercab’s exterior and interior elements, making the vehicle look more polished and seemingly more comfortable than its prototypes from last year.
Exterior and interior refinements
The updated Cybercab, whose photos were initially shared by Tesla advocate Nic Cruz Patane, now features a new frameless window design, an extended bottom splitter on the front bumper, and a slightly updated rear hatch. It also includes a production-spec front lightbar with integrated headlights, new wheel covers, and a license plate bracket.
Notably, the vehicle now has two windshield wipers instead of the prototype’s single unit, along with powered door struts, seemingly for smoother opening of its butterfly doors. Inside, the Cybercab now sports what appears to be a redesigned dash and door panels, updated carpet material, and slightly refined seat cushions with new center cupholders. Its legroom seems to have gotten slightly larger as well.
Cybercab sightings
Sightings of the updated Cybercab have been abundant in recent months. At the end of October, the Tesla AI team teased some of the autonomous two-seater’s updates after it showed a photo of the vehicle being driven through an In-N-Out drive-through by employees in Halloween costumes. The photos of the Cybercab were fun, but they were significant, with longtime Tesla watchers noting that the company has a tradition of driving its prototypes through the fast food chain’s drive-throughs.
Even at the time, Tesla enthusiasts noticed that the Cybercab had received some design changes, such as segmented DRLs and headlamps, actual turn signals, and a splitter that’s a lot sharper. Larger door openings, which now seem to have been teasing the vehicle’s updated cabin, were also observed at the time.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst realizes one big thing about the stock: deliveries are losing importance
Tesla analyst Dan Levy of Barclays realized one big thing about the stock moving into 2026: vehicle deliveries are losing importance.
As a new era of Tesla seems to be on the horizon, the concern about vehicle deliveries and annual growth seems to be fading, at least according to many investors.
Even CEO Elon Musk has implied at times that the automotive side, as a whole, will only make up a small percentage of Tesla’s total valuation, as Optimus and AI begin to shine with importance.
He said in April:
“The future of the company is fundamentally based on large-scale autonomous cars and large-scale and large volume, vast numbers of autonomous humanoid robots.”
Almost all of Tesla’s value long-term will be from AI & robots, both vehicle & humanoid
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) September 11, 2023
Levy wrote in a note to investors that Tesla’s Q4 delivery figures “likely won’t matter for the stock.” Barclays said in the note that it expects deliveries to be “soft” for the quarter.
In years past, Tesla analysts, investors, and fans were focused on automotive growth.
Cars were truly the biggest thing the stock had to offer: Tesla was a growing automotive company with a lot of prowess in AI and software, but deliveries held the most impact, along with vehicle pricing. These types of things had huge impacts on the stock years ago.
In fact, several large swings occurred because of Tesla either beating or missing delivery estimates:
- January 3, 2022: +13.53%, record deliveries at the time
- January 3, 2023: -12.24%, missed deliveries
- July 2, 2024: +10.20%, beat delivery expectations
- October 3, 2022: -8.61%, sharp miss due to Shanghai factory shutdown
- July 2, 2020: +7.95%, topped low COVID-era expectations with sizeable beat on deliveries
It has become more apparent over the past few quarters that delivery estimates have significantly less focus from investors, who are instead looking for progress in AI, Optimus, Cybercab, and other projects.
These things are the future of the company, and although Tesla will always sell cars, the stock is more impacted by the software the vehicle is running, and not necessarily the vehicle itself.
Wedbush’s Dan Ives sees ‘monster year’ ahead for Tesla amid AI push
Production-ready Tesla Cybercab hits showroom floor in San Jose
