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SpaceX rolls Starship to the launch pad five days after last flight test

SpaceX has rolled a new Starship prototype to the launch pad less than five days after the last prototype's launch, landing, and explosion. (NASASpaceflight)

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Update: Less than five days after Starship serial number 10 (SN10) briefly became the first prototype to launch and land in one piece, SpaceX has rolled its successor – Starship SN11 – from factory to launch pad.

The goal: complete cryogenic proof and static fire testing within the next 4-7 days to clear the way for another Starship launch as early as next week. Already outfitted with three Raptor engines, SN11 may have a limited chance of hitting SpaceX’s ambitious schedule targets, but the experiences of Starships SN8, SN9, and SN10 suggest that a launch sometime before the end of March is a more reasonable expectation. Stay tuned for updates as SpaceX prepares to install Starship SN11 at the launch pad and put its cryogenic proof test on the calendar.

NASASpaceflight.com reports that SpaceX – already scheduled to transport a new Starship to the launch pad on Monday, March 8th – wants that prototype ready to launch as early as next week.

According to the same report, SpaceX – having already installed three Raptor engines on Starship serial number 11 (SN11) – aims to more or less wrap up all qualification testing by the end of the week. No different than the test campaigns that all other flightworthy Starships had to pass before being cleared for launch, that process includes – at minimum – a good cryogenic proof test and a combined wet dress rehearsal (WDR) and static fire.

https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2021/03/starship-sn11-rollout-spacex-plans-future/
Starship SN11 has been virtually complete for several weeks; waiting for SN10 to hand off the torch. Now, that time has come. (NASASpaceflight – bocachicagal)

Excluding Starhopper, of the five Starship prototypes that have taken flight, SpaceX has consistently managed to speed up the process of preparing each vehicle for flight, but the average time spent from rollout to liftoff is still more than a month. In other words, even accounting for the general improvements SpaceX seems to make between tests, readying Starship SN11 for flight within a week or two of the prototype arriving at the launch pad would be anywhere from a factor of two to five faster than any prior test campaign.

Excellent data recent collated by a new Twitter account (@BocaCharts) exemplifies both SpaceX’s continuous improvement and the unlikelihood of SN11 being ready for flight by next week.

Still, it’s not entirely impossible. If SpaceX can borrow from the most efficient Starship launches and test campaigns its completed and combine them all with a few new, unspecified efficiencies, it’s reasonable to conclude that Starship SN11 could be ready to fly near the end of next week (around March 19th). More specifically, SpaceX would have to complete a successful static fire on the first try within a week of SN11’s scheduled March 8th rollout, followed by a brisk two or three-day turnaround for a launch attempt.

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While not impossible, it’s safe to say that that scenario is unlikely. Nevertheless, assuming SpaceX continues to find ways to expedite preflight processing like it has with SN8, SN9, and SN10, it’s reasonable to assume that Starship SN11 could be ready for an inaugural launch attempt as early as the last week of March.

All the above ignores the possibility that SpaceX will choose to physically modify Starship SN11 to mitigate the possibility of some or all aspects of Starship SN10’s hard landing and subsequent explosion from recurring. If that is the plan, those changes will have to be done at the launch site after Starship SN11’s scheduled Monday, March 8th rollout.

Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Elon Musk explains why Tesla stepped back from Project Dojo

The update was initially reported by Bloomberg News, which cited people reportedly familiar with the matter.

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(Credit: Tesla)

Elon Musk has confirmed that Tesla is stepping back from its Dojo supercomputer initiative and focusing instead on the company’s in-house AI5 and AI6 chips. 

The update was initially reported by Bloomberg News, which cited people reportedly familiar with the matter.

Project Dojo Ends

As per Bloomberg, Peter Bannon, who led Project Dojo, will be departing Tesla following Elon Musk’s decision to shut down the initiative. The publication claimed that Tesla’s Project Dojo team has lost about 20 members recently, and the remaining members of the initiative would be reassigned to other data center and compute projects within Tesla. 

Dojo was expected to help Tesla train its Autopilot and Full Self-Driving systems. With this change, Tesla will reportedly be increasing its reliance on external partners for its training hardware. These partners reportedly include Nvidia, AMD, and Samsung, among other companies.

Credit: Elon Musk/X

Musk Explains Dojo Shutdown

In a series of posts on X, Elon Musk explained that it doesn’t make much sense for Tesla to divide its resources to scale two different chip designs. And since the company is putting in a lot of effort in its AI5 and AI6 chips–which would be used not for training but in actual products like Optimus and the Cybercab–it was time for Project Dojo to take a bow.

“It doesn’t make sense for Tesla to divide its resources and scale two quite different AI chip designs. The Tesla AI5, AI6 and subsequent chips will be excellent for inference and at least pretty good for training. All effort is focused on that.

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“In a supercomputer cluster, it would make sense to put many AI5/AI6 chips on a board, whether for inference or training, simply to reduce network cabling complexity & cost by a few orders of magnitude. One could call that Dojo 3, I suppose. The difference in real-world performance between AI4 and AI5 is far more than any chip version I’ve ever heard of by a lot. It’s real good,” Musk wrote in his post.

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Tesla creates clever solution to simplify and improve its Service

Raj Jegannathan, a Vice President of IT/AI-Infra, Apps, Infosec, and Vehicle Service Operations, revealed that Tesla has started a small pilot program at a few service locations to combat this issue.

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tesla service
Credit: Tesla

Tesla has created a clever solution to simplify and improve its Service. Tesla performs most of the services that are needed on its vehicles at its company-owned Service Centers.

However, service has been a weak point of the company, as some regions have fewer Service Centers than others. This can cause long wait times for Tesla owners in some parts of the country.

There are also instances where customers do not agree with what Tesla is saying about their vehicle. In fact, one instance that revealed this new change Tesla is making to its Service was precisely that.

One owner posted on X that his vehicle’s battery seal had failed after a recall was issued. Tesla insurance and Tesla Service both did not assist, and it took CEO Elon Musk stepping in to get the issue resolved:

Another owner suggested there should be a more streamlined communications process between the customer and the Service Center, a solution that has been missing.

Raj Jegannathan, a Vice President of IT/AI-Infra, Apps, Infosec, and Vehicle Service Operations, revealed that Tesla has started a small pilot program at a few service locations to combat this issue.

Elon Musk wants Tesla Service to fix two-thirds of cars in the same day

Jegannathan said that Tesla has started to share local and regional leader contact information so customers have the ability to reach out when they have complaints or disagree with warranty claims, changes in estimates, or initial diagnostics.

It is available in a handful of locations already, and Jegannathan said that once abuse guardrails are built, this will expand to all locations:

This would be a major improvement in the Service portion of Tesla’s business. There are common disagreements between Service and customers, specifically when Service’s suggestions don’t align with the customer’s beliefs.

When it comes to things like a warranty claim, these issues are not really up for interpretation. Instead, the repairs should be made. If there is a misunderstanding on Service’s side, a simple message from the customer could have resolved the issue. That’s basically what happened here.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla gets its best analysis from Morgan Stanley as ‘it’s all about to change’

He maintained its ‘Overweight’ rating and the $410 price target Morgan Stanley had on the stock.

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(Credit: Tesla)

Tesla has gotten perhaps its best analysis from Morgan Stanley in quite some time, as the Wall Street firm claims that “it’s all about to change.”

That phrase could be used for both the company’s status and the world in general.

Analyst Adam Jonas said in a new note on Thursday to investors that Tesla could be one of the major winners in terms of the global transition from what it is now to what it will be.

He describes the global shift that will occur over the next few years:

“Have you interacted with a robot today? Have you even seen a robot today? No? Well, take a mental picture because it’s all about to change. When we meet someone who has never been in a Waymo or a Tesla Cybercab (which is most people), we frequently see a wince and a response such as ‘I’m not sure I’d feel comfortable getting in a car without a driver.’ We imagine going back in time to 1903 and asking people if they’d feel comfortable in an airplane.'”

The same technological revolutions that have occurred over the past 150 years will continue to occur again and again. We are on the verge of another, Jonas believes, as companies like Tesla are working on artificial intelligence tech, which includes changing the way we look at things like transportation and labor.

Jonas includes an interesting tidbit in his note about how humanoid robots could change wages, and how it could work into the advantage of Tesla, especially as it is developing its own Optimus robot:

“We estimate 1 humanoid robot at $5/hour can do the work of 2 humans at $25/hour, generating an NPV of approximately $200k/humanoid. 1 robot shaped car can potentially drive down cost/mile of a ride share vehicle to <$0.20 mile (1/10th human-driven ride-share).”

Jonas sees Tesla as a key player in how AI will impact things like manufacturing and various automotive industries, and he believes there is long-term potential for AI, robomobility, and even autonomous eVTOL platforms.

Tesla stock: Morgan Stanley says eVTOL is calling Elon Musk for new chapter

He maintained its ‘Overweight’ rating and the $410 price target Morgan Stanley had on the stock.

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