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SpaceX eyes two Falcon 9 launches and a Starship hop in three days (Update: one day!)

All three of these SpaceX rockets could launch between August 29th and 31st. (Richard Angle; NASASpaceflight - bocachicagal)

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Update: In a surprise twist, SpaceX has confirmed plans to launch SAOCOM 1B, Starlink-11, and hop Starship SN6 in less than ten hours on August 30th.

Contingent upon a ULA Delta IV Heavy launch on August 29th, Starlink-11 is scheduled to lift off on a Falcon 9 rocket no earlier than (NET) 10:12 am EDT (UTC-4), followed by SAOCOM 1B on a separate Falcon 9 NET 7:18 pm EDT (UTC-4). Simultaneously, SpaceX is currently working towards a second full-scale Starship hop test between 8 am and 8 pm CDT (UTC-5) on Sunday, August 30th.

Pending an August 29th mission from competitor ULA, SpaceX aims to attempt two orbital Falcon 9 launches and a Starship hop test over the course of just a few days.

A United Launch Alliance (ULA) Delta IV Heavy rocket was originally scheduled to launch the secretive National Reconnaissance Office 44 (NROL-44) spy satellite on Wednesday before the customer requested a 24-hour delay and technical rocket bugs pushed the mission to no earlier than (NET) August 27th and now August 29th. Delta IV Heavy’s low cadence of one or two annual launches has traditionally made it hard for the rocket to launch on time, offering very few opportunities for the company to work the kinks out of the complex system.

ULA’s NROL-44 launch currently holds precedence over other missions scheduled around the same time, meaning that SpaceX has no choice but to delay its own launches every time the ULA mission slips. SpaceX has two launches currently in queue: Argentinian Earth observation satellite SAOCOM 1B was scheduled to launch NET 7:19 pm EDT (UTC-4) on August 28th, while SpaceX’s 11th Starlink v1.0 launch was expected to lift off NET 10:08 am EDIT (UTC-4) on August 30th. Simultaneously, a SpaceX Starship prototype is tracking towards its first short hop somewhere in between those orbital launches. ULA’s second NROL-44 delay has thrown both SpaceX launch dates somewhat up in the air, however.

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SpaceX encapsulated SAOCOM 1B in Falcon 9’s payload fairing earlier this month. (CONAE)

Starship SN6 Flight 1

Recent delays to SpaceX’s East Coast launches have pushed the company’s second full-scale Starship hop test to the front of the line. Starship serial number 6 (SN6) is currently scheduled to attempt its first 150m (~500 ft) hop as early as Saturday, August 29th. Coming less than four weeks after Starship SN5 became the first full-scale prototype to successfully lift off (and land) on August 4th, a second successful hop – with an entirely different Raptor engine and Starship prototype – would be an extraordinary feat.

Meanwhile, SpaceX is simultaneously inspecting and repairing the hop-proven Starship SN5 prototype – most likely with the intention of flying the ship again in the near future. According to CEO Elon Musk, SpaceX’s current goal is to perform “several” fast-paced Starship hop tests to streamline the new rocket’s launch operations. The August 29th window for SN6’s 150m hop lasts from 8am to 8pm and the rocket could attempt to lift off as early as 10am to noon.

Starship SN6 completed a cryo proof test and Raptor static fire on August 16th and August 23rd. (LabPadre)

SAOCOM 1B

Sister to the SAOCOM 1A satellite SpaceX launched from California in October 2018, SAOCOM 1B is more or less identical. Notably, however, it will launch from Florida – the first polar launch planned from the US East Coast in half a century. The reason the United States effectively retired the Eastern polar launch corridor is a bizarre story of Cold War tensions gone awry but the gist is that SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket will ‘dogleg’ midflight, changing its trajectory to avoid overflying populated regions.

Originally scheduled to launch as early as March 30th, the Argentinian satellite has been relentlessly delayed by coronavirus-related restrictions and technical delays. SAOCOM 1B’s Falcon 9 booster was even swapped amidst the delays, switching from B1051 to B1059 as SpaceX strove to fill the gap in its manifest with internal Starlink missions. Now, NROL-44’s technical launch delays have pushed the Falcon 9 mission from August 27th to NET 7:19 pm EDT (UTC-4) on Sunday, August 30th.

SAOCOM 1B will be SpaceX’s first return-to-launch-site (RTLS) booster landing since March 2020.

Falcon 9 B1059 – now scheduled to launch SAOCOM 1B – last returned to port on June 16th after launching Starlink-8. (Richard Angle)

Starlink-11

Finally, prior to NROL-44’s 72-hour slip, SpaceX’s 11th Starlink v1.0 mission and 12th Starlink launch overall was scheduled NET Sunday, August 30th. ULA’s delays have added considerable uncertainty, at one point pushing Starlink-11 to a tentative September 1st NET before the launch date (rather oddly) slipped back into late-August. Assuming SpaceX still has to wait for ULA, the most likely alternative is August 31st, given that August 30th would necessitate two launches in less than ten hours.

SpaceX completed its first operational US military Falcon 9 launch with booster B1060 on June 30th. (Richard Angle)
B1060 completed its first recovery on July 4th. (Richard Angle)

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Investor's Corner

Bank of America raises Tesla PT to $471, citing Robotaxi and Optimus potential

The firm also kept a Neutral rating on the electric vehicle maker, citing strong progress in autonomy and robotics.

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Credit: Tesla

Bank of America has raised its Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target by 38% to $471, up from $341 per share.

The firm also kept a Neutral rating on the electric vehicle maker, citing strong progress in autonomy and robotics.

Robotaxi and Optimus momentum

Bank of America analyst Federico Merendi noted that the firm’s price target increase reflects Tesla’s growing potential in its Robotaxi and Optimus programs, among other factors. BofA’s updated valuation is based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) model extending through 2040, which shows the Robotaxi platform accounting for 45% of total value. The model also shows Tesla’s humanoid robot Optimus contributing 19%, and Full Self-Driving (FSD) and the Energy segment adding 17% and 6% respectively.

“Overall, we find that TSLA’s core automotive business represents around 12% of the total value while robotaxi is 45%, FSD is 17%, Energy Generation & Storage is around 6% and Optimus is 19%,” the Bank of America analyst noted.

Still a Neutral rating

Despite recognizing long-term potential in AI-driven verticals, Merendi’s team maintained a Neutral rating, suggesting that much of the optimism is already priced into Tesla’s valuation. 

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“Our PO revision is driven by a lower cost of equity capital, better Robotaxi progress, and a higher valuation for Optimus to account for the potential entrance into international markets,” the analyst stated.

Interestingly enough, Tesla’s core automotive business, which contributes the lion’s share of the company’s operations today, represents just 12% of total value in BofA’s model.

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Tesla Model Y on FSD saves couple after encountering King of edge cases

Experts have noted that if confirmed, this could be the world’s first recorded meteorite collision involving a Tesla.

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Credit: @10NewsAU/YouTube

A South Australian Tesla driver is thanking his Model Y’s Full Self-Driving system after a mysterious object, possibly a meteorite, slammed into his car’s windshield while it had FSD engaged. 

The impact sent hot glass fragments flying through the cabin as the vehicle continued driving without human input through the darkness. Experts have noted that if confirmed, this could be the world’s first recorded meteorite collision involving a Tesla.

The Tesla owner was enjoying a quiet drive home when they hit the king of edge cases

Veterinarian Dr. Andrew Melville-Smith and his wife were traveling north on Augusta Highway on the night of October 19 when a sudden blast struck their newly delivered Model Y. At the time, it was clear, pitch black night, and Dr. Melville-Smith and his wife were just listening to a podcast while FSD was operating the vehicle, as noted in a Yahoo News report. 

Suddenly, something hit the Tesla’s windshield. “Then there was, (what) I can only describe as a very, very violent explosion. The whole inside of the car was literally blasted with glass fragments. It was full of white smoke, and it smelled like the car was on fire,” Dr. Melville-Smith stated. 

The vet stated that he and his wife were stunned for a good 10 seconds, and for a bit, he and his wife thought they had crashed. Images of the crash’s aftermath showed a massive crack on the Tesla’s windshield, which Dr. Melville-Smith noted was hot to the touch. The object that hit the Tesla’s windshield was so hot that part of the vehicle’s windshield was partly melted. 

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FSD kept driving despite the possible meteorite strike

Thankfully, the Tesla was operating with its FSD (Supervised) system engaged at the time. Thus, despite the vehicle being hit by what might be a literal meteorite, and despite Dr. Melville-Smith and his wife being stunned because of the impact, their Tesla just kept driving steadily. 

“I thought we’d had an accident, but then I looked at the screen and went ‘Oh, we’re still driving. We were moving around, so it obviously thought we were paying attention, and it was happy to keep driving to Port Augusta. After we pulled over, we saw the big crater in the windscreen,” the vet said. 

The South Australian Museum is now examining the case, with geologist Dr. Kieran Meaney stating the scorched glass and heat damage do suggest a potential meteorite strike. “The little detail that’s really selling it for me at the moment is that whatever it was that hit the windscreen seems to have been very hot,” Meaney explained. However, the object has yet to be recovered.

Check out a video of the remarkable edge case below.

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“Foundation:” Elon Musk wants to send a record of Grokipedia to space

The idea sounds outlandish, though it is also something that is in character for the CEO.

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Credit: xAI

Elon Musk has announced one of his latest initiatives, and it is every bit as sci-fi as it is surprisingly grounded. In a post on X, Musk stated that Grokipedia, xAI’s new open-source encyclopedia, will be etched into stable oxide and launched into space. 

The idea sounds outlandish, though it is also something that is in character for the CEO.

Preserving human knowledge among the stars

Musk posted his plan following the launch of Grokipedia’s V0.1’s iteration. The CEO congratulated the xAI team for the online encyclopedia’s launch, though he also stated that the goal for Grokipedia is to create an open-source collection of knowledge. This would then be distributed to the cosmos.

“Nice work by the xAI team on Grokipedia! The goal here is to create an open source, comprehensive collection of all knowledge. Then place copies of that etched in a stable oxide in orbit, the Moon, and Mars to preserve it for the future. Foundation,” Musk wrote in his post.

While seemingly outlandish, this is not the first time that a record of human knowledge of sorts was sent out to space. In 1977, the Voyager Golden Record was launched aboard NASA’s Voyager 1 and 2 spacecraft. The record contains sounds and images that ere aggregated to portray the diversity of the Earth’s culture. Of course, Musk’s plan with Grokipedia, is infinitely more ambitious. 

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Grokipedia and AI neutrality

Musk launched Grokipedia as an AI-driven alternative to Wikipedia, designed to eliminate the human biases that could affect conventional online knowledge platforms. The system is powered by xAI’s Grok, which scrape and summarize information from across the internet, offering balanced and nuanced coverage of topics ranging from science and technology to culture and politics.

Unlike Wikipedia’s human-edited format, Grokipedia would be able to evolve through machine learning, reading vastly more material than any editorial team could. Early testers, including Wikipedia co-founder Larry Sanger, praised its initial version as “very OK” and potentially more neutral than Wikipedia. Musk agreed, stating that even in its V0.1 form, Grokipedia is “already better than Wikipedia.”

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