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SpaceX on a roll with latest small satellite launch contract wins
Rideshare organize Exolaunch has announced a multi-spacecraft launch contract with SpaceX, continuing a streak of success enjoyed by the launch company’s Smallsat Program over the last several months.
While Exolaunch declined to confirm the mass of the payload or the number of satellites it manifested on a SpaceX Smallsat Program launch, the German company has likely arranged for 5-10 customer satellites to travel to orbit on Falcon 9. Known as a launch services provider, Exolaunch is effectively a middleman company tasked with connecting small satellites – typically cubesats in the 1-50 kg (1-125 lb) range – to rideshare launch opportunities on much larger rockets.
At face value, SpaceX’s Smallsat Program offers an extremely poor deal for individual cubesat owners on the market for launch services. However, through a growing number of flight-proven organizers like Exolaunch, Nanoracks, and others, markets and actual hardware are being developed to give the many hundreds or thousands of potential customers a cheap and reliable way to space. Uncertainties undoubtedly remain but SpaceX appears to be well on its way to securing a range of relatively valuable keystone customers, potentially becoming the go-to option for smallsat launches.
While it sounds deceptively simple, it’s looking more and more like SpaceX’s Smallsat Program has been an extremely strategic and forward-looking play, setting the company up to be a bit like the spaceflight equivalent of an ocean freight provider. Effectively the invisible backbone of the global economy, modern shipping is incredibly efficient and effective in large part because of the adoption of standardized shipping containers.
Just like oceanic shipping, the cost of transporting an entire shipping container is uneconomical for the vast majority of customers in search of logistics services. Instead, 3rd parties typically acquire space and then sell portions of each container’s volume inside to smaller customers. Companies like Exolaunch, Nanoracks, and more are essentially trying to become those third parties, albeit in a world where the standard shipping container has yet to be developed.
Exolaunch’s ‘Exopod’ is one of several such orbital-shipping-crates-in-waiting and will fly on SpaceX’s first dedicated rideshare mission, scheduled to launch no earlier than (NET) December 2020. Critically, providers like Exolaunch – tasked with deploying multiple customer satellites in orbit – can require an overall payload heavy enough for SpaceX’s pricing to be spectacularly competitive. Assuming an Exopod is ~50 kg and can store four 3U cubesats weighing ~10 kg each, Exolaunch would have to pay SpaceX just ~$1M to launch a full pod.
Add a 25% overhead for Exolaunch’s own costs and those four satellites could reach orbit for something like ~$300,000 apiece. In reality, it’s likely possibly for costs to be even lower, but it serves to show how 3rd-party service providers can offer prices lower than the launch company’s own catalog.
Aside from Exolaunch, SpaceX has won several smallsat launch contracts from Nanoracks (partially a services provider like Exolaunch), Momentus (a space tug company with more than a dozen of its own satellite customers), Kepler (an Internet of Things satellite constellation company), as well as several smaller orders. SpaceX’s growing relationship with Momentus is particularly interesting as the latter company’s goal is to develop cheap orbital tugs, deploying satellites at the exact orbits they want even if launched as part of a rideshare. Momentus has already bought slots for its Vigoride space tugs on five SpaceX rideshare launches, beginning as early as December 2020.
Ultimately, while the economics of rideshare launches on vehicles as large as Falcon 9 remain extremely unforgiving, SpaceX appears to be in it for the long haul and has certainly won an impressive number of launch contracts in just the last few months. SpaceX’s first Smallsat Program rideshare could happen as early as June 2020, hitching a ride on one of the two-dozen internal Starlink missions planned this year. The first dedicated rideshare is working towards its own December 2020 launch debut.
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Tesla is not sparing any expense in ensuring the Cybercab is safe
Images shared by the longtime watcher showed 16 Cybercab prototypes parked near Giga Texas’ dedicated crash test facility.
The Tesla Cybercab could very well be the safest taxi on the road when it is released and deployed for public use. This was, at least, hinted at by the intensive safety tests that Tesla seems to be putting the autonomous two-seater through at its Giga Texas crash test facility.
Intensive crash tests
As per recent images from longtime Giga Texas watcher and drone operator Joe Tegtmeyer, Tesla seems to be very busy crash testing Cybercab units. Images shared by the longtime watcher showed 16 Cybercab prototypes parked near Giga Texas’ dedicated crash test facility just before the holidays.
Tegtmeyer’s aerial photos showed the prototypes clustered outside the factory’s testing building. Some uncovered Cybercabs showed notable damage and one even had its airbags engaged. With Cybercab production expected to start in about 130 days, it appears that Tesla is very busy ensuring that its autonomous two-seater ends up becoming the safest taxi on public roads.
Prioritizing safety
With no human driver controls, the Cybercab demands exceptional active and passive safety systems to protect occupants in any scenario. Considering Tesla’s reputation, it is then understandable that the company seems to be sparing no expense in ensuring that the Cybercab is as safe as possible.
Tesla’s focus on safety was recently highlighted when the Cybertruck achieved a Top Safety Pick+ rating from the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS). This was a notable victory for the Cybertruck as critics have long claimed that the vehicle will be one of, if not the, most unsafe truck on the road due to its appearance. The vehicle’s Top Safety Pick+ rating, if any, simply proved that Tesla never neglects to make its cars as safe as possible, and that definitely includes the Cybercab.
Elon Musk
Tesla’s Elon Musk gives timeframe for FSD’s release in UAE
Provided that Musk’s timeframe proves accurate, FSD would be able to start saturating the Middle East, starting with the UAE, next year.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk stated on Monday that Full Self-Driving (Supervised) could launch in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) as soon as January 2026.
Provided that Musk’s timeframe proves accurate, FSD would be able to start saturating the Middle East, starting with the UAE, next year.
Musk’s estimate
In a post on X, UAE-based political analyst Ahmed Sharif Al Amiri asked Musk when FSD would arrive in the country, quoting an earlier post where the CEO encouraged users to try out FSD for themselves. Musk responded directly to the analyst’s inquiry.
“Hopefully, next month,” Musk wrote. The exchange attracted a lot of attention, with numerous X users sharing their excitement at the idea of FSD being brought to a new country. FSD (Supervised), after all, would likely allow hands-off highway driving, urban navigation, and parking under driver oversight in traffic-heavy cities such as Dubai and Abu Dhabi.
Musk’s comments about FSD’s arrival in the UAE were posted following his visit to the Middle Eastern country. Over the weekend, images were shared online of Musk meeting with UAE Defense Minister, Deputy Prime Minister, and Dubai Crown Prince HH Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed. Musk also posted a supportive message about the country, posting “UAE rocks!” on X.
FSD recognition
FSD has been getting quite a lot of support from foreign media outlets. FSD (Supervised) earned high marks from Germany’s largest car magazine, Auto Bild, during a test in Berlin’s challenging urban environment. The demonstration highlighted the system’s ability to handle dense traffic, construction sites, pedestrian crossings, and narrow streets with smooth, confident decision-making.
Journalist Robin Hornig was particularly struck by FSD’s superior perception and tireless attention, stating: “Tesla FSD Supervised sees more than I do. It doesn’t get distracted and never gets tired. I like to think I’m a good driver, but I can’t match this system’s all-around vision. It’s at its best when both work together: my experience and the Tesla’s constant attention.” Only one intervention was needed when the system misread a route, showcasing its maturity while relying on vision-only sensors and over-the-air learning.
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Tesla quietly flexes FSD’s reliability amid Waymo blackout in San Francisco
“Tesla Robotaxis were unaffected by the SF power outage,” Musk wrote in his post.
Tesla highlighted its Full Self-Driving (Supervised) system’s robustness this week by sharing dashcam footage of a vehicle in FSD navigating pitch-black San Francisco streets during the city’s widespread power outage.
While Waymo’s robotaxis stalled and caused traffic jams, Tesla’s vision-only approach kept operating seamlessly without remote intervention. Elon Musk amplified the clip, highlighting the contrast between the two systems.
Tesla FSD handles total darkness
The @Tesla_AI account posted a video from a Model Y operating on FSD during San Francisco’s blackout. As could be seen in the video, streetlights, traffic signals, and surrounding illumination were completely out, but the vehicle drove confidently and cautiously, just like a proficient human driver.
Musk reposted the clip, adding context to reports of Waymo vehicles struggling in the same conditions. “Tesla Robotaxis were unaffected by the SF power outage,” Musk wrote in his post.
Musk and the Tesla AI team’s posts highlight the idea that FSD operates a lot like any experienced human driver. Since the system does not rely on a variety of sensors and a complicated symphony of factors, vehicles could technically navigate challenging circumstances as they emerge. This definitely seemed to be the case in San Francisco.
Waymo’s blackout struggles
Waymo faced scrutiny after multiple self-driving Jaguar I-PACE taxis stopped functioning during the blackout, blocking lanes, causing traffic jams, and requiring manual retrieval. Videos shared during the power outage showed fleets of Waymo vehicles just stopping in the middle of the road, seemingly confused about what to do when the lights go out.
In a comment, Waymo stated that its vehicles treat nonfunctional signals as four-way stops, but “the sheer scale of the outage led to instances where vehicles remained stationary longer than usual to confirm the state of the affected intersections. This contributed to traffic friction during the height of the congestion.”
A company spokesperson also shared some thoughts about the incidents. “Yesterday’s power outage was a widespread event that caused gridlock across San Francisco, with non-functioning traffic signals and transit disruptions. While the failure of the utility infrastructure was significant, we are committed to ensuring our technology adjusts to traffic flow during such events,” the Waymo spokesperson stated, adding that it is “focused on rapidly integrating the lessons learned from this event, and are committed to earning and maintaining the trust of the communities we serve every day.”
Tesla is not sparing any expense in ensuring the Cybercab is safe
Tesla’s Elon Musk gives timeframe for FSD’s release in UAE
