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Tesla Autopilot traveled fewer miles per accident in Q4, vehicle safety report shows
Update: 3/15: added paragraphs 9 and 10 to reflect weather and seasonality, which affect crash rates from quarter to quarter, as Tesla notes.
Tesla Autopilot traveled fewer miles between accidents in Q4 2022 compared to the quarter prior, the company’s vehicle safety report showed. However, there was in improvement compared to Q4 2021.
In the fourth quarter, Tesla recorded one crash for every 4.85 million miles driven in which drivers utilized Autopilot. In the third quarter, Tesla had one accident for every 6.26 million miles driven.
The company wrote:
“In the 4th quarter, we recorded one crash for every 4.85 million miles driven in which drivers were using Autopilot technology.”
Q3 was Tesla’s second-strongest quarter in terms of miles traveled on Autopilot before an accident, with only Q1 2022 showing stronger numbers. Tesla registered an accident once every 6.57 million miles in Q1.
Tesla also had a decrease in miles traveled per accident for drivers not using Autopilot compared to Q3:
“For drivers who were not using Autopilot technology, we recorded one crash for every 1.40 million miles driven.”
Credit: Tesla
Despite the decrease, Tesla Autopilot still shows stronger numbers than the national average. The NHTSA and FHWA show that one accident occurs every 652,000 miles traveled in the United States.
However, Q4 was Tesla’s least impressive performance in terms of miles traveled in between accidents. Tesla utilizes a neural network to improve Autopilot’s performance with every mile driven. This has been the company’s most significant advantage in terms of its development of semi-autonomous driver assistance programs.
It was an improvement from Q4 in the previous year, which could be affected by weather conditions. Tesla notes:
“Please note that seasonality can affect crash rates from quarter to quarter, particularly in quarters where reduced daylight and inclement or wintry weather conditions are more common. To minimize seasonality as a variable, compare a quarter to the same quarter in prior years.”
Autopilot has not been recognized as the most robust driver assistance system by media outlets. After Consumer Reports indicated Ford Blue Cruise and GM SuperCruise were the best available suites on the market, Tesla Autopilot slipped to 7th place.
Ford BlueCruise, GM SuperCruise ranked as best Driver Assistance systems, Tesla Autopilot ranks 7th
Tesla Autopilot has also been subjected to investigations from U.S. regulators. A 2014 Model S that struck a firetruck in California last month is the most recent investigation to be launched by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) after the agency had already initiated a probe to determine why the vehicles have collided with emergency vehicles.
Nevertheless, Tesla Autopilot, despite the slide in Q4, is still showing more miles traveled than the national average. Autopilot is still a work in progress, and Tesla’s biggest focus is autonomy, according to CEO Elon Musk.
Musk said earlier this month that its next vehicle would be capable of handling most of its operation in autonomous modes.
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Tesla Cybercab is changing the look of Austin’s roads, and it’s not even in production yet
Videos and photos showed the sleek, two-seat autonomous vehicles navigating traffic.
Even before entering production, Tesla’s Cybercab is already transforming the appearance of Austin’s streets, with multiple prototypes spotted testing in downtown areas recently.
Videos and photos showed the sleek, two-seat autonomous vehicles navigating traffic. Interestingly enough, the vehicles were equipped with temporary steering wheels and human safety drivers.
Recent Cybercab sightings
Over the weekend, enthusiasts captured footage of two Cybercabs driving together in central Austin, their futuristic silhouettes standing out amid regular traffic. While the vehicles featured temporary steering wheels and side mirrors for now, they retained their futuristic, production-intent exterior design.
Industry watcher Sawyer Merritt shared one of the vehicles’ videos, noting the increasing frequency of the autonomous two-seater’s sightings.
Previewing the autonomous future
Sightings of the Cybercab have been ramping in several key areas across the United States in recent weeks. Sightings include units at Apple’s Visitor Center in California, the Fremont factory test track, and in Austin’s streets.
The increased activity suggests that Tesla is in overdrive, validating the autonomous two-seater ahead of its planned volume production. Elon Musk confirmed at the 2025 Shareholder Meeting that manufacturing begins around April 2026 with ambitious targets, and during an All-Hands meeting earlier this year, Musk hinted that ultimately, Tesla’s factories should be able to produce one Cybercab every 10 seconds.
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Tesla celebrates 9 million vehicles produced globally
The achievement, announced by Tesla Asia on X, celebrated not just the Shanghai team’s output but the company’s cumulative production across all its factories worldwide.
Tesla has achieved a new milestone, rolling out its nine millionth vehicle worldwide from Giga Shanghai.
The achievement, announced by Tesla Asia on X, celebrated not just the Shanghai team’s output but the company’s cumulative production across all its factories worldwide. The milestone came as 2025 drew to a close, and it inspired praise from some of the company’s key executives.
Tesla’s 9 million vehicle milestone
The commemorative photo from Tesla Asia featured the Giga Shanghai team assembled on the factory floor, surrounding the milestone Model Y unit, which looked pristine in white. The image was captioned: “Our 9 millionth vehicle globally has just rolled off the production line at Giga Shanghai. Thanks to our owners and supporters around the world.”
Senior Vice President of Automotive Tom Zhu praised Tesla’s factory teams for the remarkable milestone. He also shared his gratitude to Tesla owners for their support. “Congrats to all Tesla factories for this amazing milestone! Thanks to our owners for your continued support!” Zhu wrote in a post on X.
Giga Shanghai’s legacy
Tesla’s nine million vehicle milestone is especially impressive considering that just 207 days ago, the company announced that it had built its eight millionth car globally. The eight millionth Tesla, a red Model Y, was built in Giga Berlin. The fact that Tesla was able to build a million cars in less than seven months is quite an accomplishment.
Giga Shanghai, Tesla’s largest factory by volume, has been instrumental to the company’s overall operations, having reached four million cumulative vehicles earlier in 2025. The plant produces Model 3 and Model Y for both domestic Chinese and export markets, making it the company’s primary vehicle export hub.
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Tesla officially publishes Q4 2025 vehicle delivery consensus
By releasing these numbers directly, Tesla establishes a clear, transparent benchmark ahead of its actual results.
Tesla has taken the rather unusual step of officially publishing its company-compiled Q4 2025 delivery consensus on the Investor Relations site. As per analyst estimates, Tesla is expected to deliver 422,850 vehicles and deploy 13.4 GWh of battery storage systems this Q4 2025.
By releasing these numbers directly, Tesla establishes a clear, transparent benchmark ahead of its actual results, making it harder for narratives to claim a “miss” based on outlier estimates.
Official consensus sets the record straight
Tesla’s IR press release detailed the consensus from 20 analysts for vehicle deliveries and 16 analysts for energy deployments. As per the release, full-year 2025 consensus delivery estimates come in at 1,640,752 vehicles, an 8.3% decline from 2025’s FY deliveries of 1,789,226 cars.
Tesla noted that while it “does not endorse any information, recommendations or conclusions made by the analysts,” its press release does provide a notable reference point. Analysts contributing to the company compiled consensus include Daiwa, DB, Wedbush, Oppenheimer, Canaccord, Baird, Wolfe, Exane, Goldman Sachs, RBC, Evercore ISI, Barclays, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, UBS, Jefferies, Needham, HSBC, Cantor Fitzgerald, and William Blair.
Tesla’s busy Q4 2025
Tesla seems to be pushing hard to deliver as many vehicles as possible before the end of 2025, despite the company’s future seemingly being determined not by vehicle deliveries, but FSD and Optimus’ rollout and ramp. Still, reports from countries such as China are optimistic, with posts on social media hinting that Tesla’s delivery centers in the country are appearing packed as the final weeks of 2025 unfold.
The Tesla Model Y and Model 3 are also still performing well in China’s premium EV segment. Based on data from January to November, the Model Y took China’s number one spot in the RMB 200,000-RMB 300,000 segment for electric vehicles, selling 359,463 units. The Model 3 sedan took third place, selling 172,392. This is quite impressive considering that both the Model Y and Model 3 command a premium compared to their domestic rivals.
Tesla Cybercab is changing the look of Austin’s roads, and it’s not even in production yet
Tesla celebrates 9 million vehicles produced globally
