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JP Morgan admits Tesla’s Giga Press advantage, but posts strangely low output estimate
The advantages of Tesla’s Giga Press machines have been acknowledged by JP Morgan in a recent analysis, with the Wall St firm noting that the massive contraptions could very well be a game-changer for the electric car maker. However, amidst the firm’s optimism, JP Morgan’s analysis did feature something quite strange, particularly on estimates about the Giga Press’ annual output.
JP Morgan noted that it visited LK Tech, the largest die casting machine supplier in the market, for its analysis. The firm stated that it was able to meet the Founder and CEO of LK Tech and the Head of IDRA, the company’s Italian subsidiary that has so far provided Giga Presses in the Fremont Factory, Giga Berlin, and Giga Texas. Tesla’s Giga Shanghai has been spotted with Giga Presses that are branded with LK Tech.
JPMorgan analyses Tesla’s Giga Press 👇🏻$TSLA pic.twitter.com/cwc4eAzoMJ
— David Tayar (@davidtayar5) February 11, 2021
The Wall Street firm’s analysis showcased several insights that have been discussed by industry experts such as Sandy Munro in the past, such as the Giga Press’ capability to simplify Tesla’s vehicle assembly process by replacing 70 pieces of metal into a single-piece megacast. JP Morgan also acknowledged that with the Giga Press, Tesla could adopt a lightweight, cost-efficient, and more straightforward production process, giving it an edge against its competitors in the auto segment.
Things become more interesting when JP Morgan shared its estimates on the Giga Press’ output, however. In a section listed as “The Maths,” the Wall Street firm assumed that each Giga Press would be capable of producing one part every 4-5 minutes, or about 240-300 seconds. At this rate, the firm estimated that one Giga Press would have an annual output of 70-90k units, which meant that Tesla would need about 8-10 Giga Presses to manufacture 350k Model Y per year.
“Assuming the casting machine produces one body part every 4-5 mins, around 70-90k units of annual production can be generated from one Giga Press. Given two Giga Presses are needed for each Model Y (one front ad one rear body part), it is estimated that around 8-10 Giga Presses are needed for the production of 350k units of Model Y,” JP Morgan wrote.
This estimate is notably lower than what has been expected by the electric vehicle community, mainly since Die-Casting Machine #1 (DCM1), which was recently deployed in the Fremont Factory, has already been observed to have a cycle time of about 170-200 seconds as per drone videos of the contraption. This is already quicker than JP Morgan’s estimates, and this is also with the machine’s operations still being optimized.
Specifications of the Giga Press from IDRA also indicate that the machines could have a cycle time of ~80-90 seconds, allowing an output of 40-45 castings per hour or about 1,000 castings per day. Considering that Tesla is still in the process of mastering its house-sized machines, there seems to be a good chance that the electric car maker could produce 350k Model Y in one year using far less than 8-10 Giga Presses.
Check out DCM1’s operations as of late January in the video below.
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Tesla has taken another concrete step toward owning its battery supply chain, and it’s doing so with what is perhaps the most important vehicle in its short-but-storied history.
On September 23, Tesla announced that it has officially built the first Cybercab with cathode material produced in-house at the company’s first cathode plant in the U.S., and the first in the U.S. overall.
First Cybercab made using our in-house cathode material – from the first cathode plant in the Americas pic.twitter.com/X95aVXsT9H
— Robotaxi (@robotaxi) September 23, 2026
Active cathode material is the most expensive piece of a lithium-ion battery cell, and it often accounts for more than a third of cell cost. For years, the industry sourced a majority of it from Asia, but Tesla’s decision to make it in the United States bodes well for the Cybercab project. This is the latest chapter in Tesla’s vertical integration strategy, which began in public at Battery Day in 2020.
At the Battery Day Event, Elon Musk said the company would build a North American cathode plant and overhaul the process to cut costs and waste, while also making some of the most powerful and long-lasting cells in the industry.
The Austin facility took years to appear. Tesla filed permits for “Project Cathode” in 2022 on land near Giga Texas. By mid-2022, the building frame was up and Tesla later invested hundreds of millions of dollars as part of a larger expansion of the Giga Texas plant. The company stated it was operating the first large-scale cathode production facility in North America to supplement 4680 cell production.
One month later, that material reached a finished Cybercab.
Made with nickel cathode manufactured locally at Gigafactory Texas! https://t.co/DqMm5fZV3n
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) September 24, 2026
The timing of this breakthrough is monumental for the Cybercab program. As Tesla officially launched the first Cybercab rides to the public earlier this month, production of the ride-hailing-geared vehicle is moving forward on the planned S-curve that CEO Elon Musk told everyone to expect.
Nevertheless, packs of Cybercab units have been spotted throughout the United States, in an effort to potentially activate the fleet as soon as the company gains regulatory approval in various geographic areas.
On top of that, Tesla owning the cathode step and pairing it with its own in-house lithium from the Gulf Coast refinery shortens the supply chain that once stretched thousands of miles and subjects every pack to fewer external price shocks and geopolitical risks.
Tesla is not yet independent of all of its foreign suppliers, as some precursor metals come from mines and chemical plants. But the first in-house cathode Cybercab shows the company is closing the most expensive and most concentrated gap in its battery production efforts. For a vehicle like Cybercab to operate at a high utilization within the Robotaxi network, that control over cost is so crucial.
It is arguably as important as the software that drives it.
Tesla is set to inaugurate its dedicated Semi factory in Sparks, Nevada, this evening, but drone footage has already started to show who is expected on the handover stage.
Zanegler, a drone operator who regularly documents Tesla Semi operations in Nevada, filmed a row of new-generation Semi units parked outside of the plant with customer branding applied. The liveries visible in the video include companies like PepsiCo, U.S. Foods, Einride, DHL, WattEV, and others that have committed to utilizing Tesla’s Class 8 electric truck in their fleets.
Tesla Semi Pre-Reveal Revealed!
Excited to share this segment of the drone flight one day prior to the Tesla Semi Reveal event.
They have added branding to several Tesla new generation semis.
Including:
Pepsico
US Foods
Einride
LTS
Nevoya
OK Produce
ABF Freight
DHL
WattEV… pic.twitter.com/KoFOg2FouR— Zanegler (@HinrichsZane) September 24, 2026
Several of those company names already sit within Tesla’s public ordering book, including PepsiCo, which has been the program’s primary anchor customer since the first Semi deliveries in December 2022. PepsiCo now runs dozens of Tesla Semi units in daily service, with drivers completing regional routes.
Einride placed a 500-unit order in August, which was, at the time, the largest single Semi commitment. First deployments of their Semi units are planned for this month and will eventually span across California, Texas, New Jersey, Illinois, and Georgia. Meanwhile, IMC Logistics announced a 50-truck California order this week.
Tesla Semi lands the biggest electric truck deal in U.S. history
Other names, like LTS, OK Produce, and HMD, have not been widely confirmed as firm buyers, but their presence on the lot is perhaps the clearest signal that Tesla intends to expand on that list this evening at the event.
Tesla first unveiled the Semi back in 2017 with a 2019 production target.
Limited pilot builds reached PepsiCo in late 2022, and high-volume production began at the new 1.7-million-square-foot plant that sits logically positioned next to Tesla’s Gigafactory Nevada. Tesla Semi program director Dan Priestley has said that Tesla expects to build “many thousands” of Semi units this year, but as with every Tesla release, there have been set expectations of an S-curve ramp.
Outside estimates still put 2026 deliveries in the 5,000-to-15,000 range, but it will ultimately depend on Tesla’s readiness to put those units out, as well as how smoothly production is moving internally.
Tesla’s Semi Rollout event is set to start tonight at the Sparks factory, and it will be livestreamed on X starting at 6 p.m. PDT / 9 p.m. ET.
The Tesla App is now giving owners a better indication of what to expect when visiting a Supercharger site, as it is now sharing Site Maps in the app itself, making the feature no longer exclusively available in the car.
Tesla owners can now preview a Supercharger’s layout and live stall status from their phone thanks to the App’s new software version, v4.61.0. Zooming into a supported Supercharger on the charging map now switches the familiar street view into a site-specific map that shows stall positions, occupied bays, out-of-service posts, and a live count of open Superchargers.
It will even show you which specific Tesla model is charging at each occupied stall.
You can now see Live Site Maps in the latest Tesla app (4.61.0.) pic.twitter.com/JIL8QzR8hu
— Zack (@BLKMDL3) September 18, 2026
This is the same view drivers first saw inside the car with the 2025 Holiday Update, which started as a pilot for Tesla in California and Texas. Those early maps showed layout, nearby amenities, and the status of each operational stall. The feature has spread to most Superchargers in the U.S., but now Tesla wants the feature available through the Smartphone App, which is now rolling out to owners.
The in-vehicle screen maps remain a richer 3D canvas and originally required AMD Ryzen infotainment hardware, which left many Intel-based Model 3 and Model Y owners without the view. The app version removes that hardware barrier, so any owner can now get a preview of their upcoming Supercharger stop on their phone.
Anyone with the updated version of the app can open a Site Map on their phone. The feature has provided some additional peace of mind to anxious travelers and those who might be looking for a place that is less congested for faster charging speeds. It is a meaningful addition to many owners, especially for trips to unfamiliar locations.
You can now pick a Supercharger location that might be more aligned with what you are looking for or need: you can pick a site based on what stalls are open, where ADA stalls sit, how you will pull in, and more, instead of circling a crowded lot after arriving. Owners of older cars now have access to the feature without having to purchase a new vehicle altogether.
Site Mpas will not reserve a stall, nor will it change how Fast Charging works. Tesla does something simpler and more useful by giving owners a dedicated preview of the Supercharger they’re about to charge, turning an unknown parking lot into a place that may seem more familiar thanks to the preview.
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Tesla Cybercab gets initial tie-in to localized, in-house cathode plant
Tesla leaks Semi customers ahead of handover event
