News
JP Morgan admits Tesla’s Giga Press advantage, but posts strangely low output estimate
The advantages of Tesla’s Giga Press machines have been acknowledged by JP Morgan in a recent analysis, with the Wall St firm noting that the massive contraptions could very well be a game-changer for the electric car maker. However, amidst the firm’s optimism, JP Morgan’s analysis did feature something quite strange, particularly on estimates about the Giga Press’ annual output.
JP Morgan noted that it visited LK Tech, the largest die casting machine supplier in the market, for its analysis. The firm stated that it was able to meet the Founder and CEO of LK Tech and the Head of IDRA, the company’s Italian subsidiary that has so far provided Giga Presses in the Fremont Factory, Giga Berlin, and Giga Texas. Tesla’s Giga Shanghai has been spotted with Giga Presses that are branded with LK Tech.
JPMorgan analyses Tesla’s Giga Press 👇🏻$TSLA pic.twitter.com/cwc4eAzoMJ
— David Tayar (@davidtayar5) February 11, 2021
The Wall Street firm’s analysis showcased several insights that have been discussed by industry experts such as Sandy Munro in the past, such as the Giga Press’ capability to simplify Tesla’s vehicle assembly process by replacing 70 pieces of metal into a single-piece megacast. JP Morgan also acknowledged that with the Giga Press, Tesla could adopt a lightweight, cost-efficient, and more straightforward production process, giving it an edge against its competitors in the auto segment.
Things become more interesting when JP Morgan shared its estimates on the Giga Press’ output, however. In a section listed as “The Maths,” the Wall Street firm assumed that each Giga Press would be capable of producing one part every 4-5 minutes, or about 240-300 seconds. At this rate, the firm estimated that one Giga Press would have an annual output of 70-90k units, which meant that Tesla would need about 8-10 Giga Presses to manufacture 350k Model Y per year.
“Assuming the casting machine produces one body part every 4-5 mins, around 70-90k units of annual production can be generated from one Giga Press. Given two Giga Presses are needed for each Model Y (one front ad one rear body part), it is estimated that around 8-10 Giga Presses are needed for the production of 350k units of Model Y,” JP Morgan wrote.
This estimate is notably lower than what has been expected by the electric vehicle community, mainly since Die-Casting Machine #1 (DCM1), which was recently deployed in the Fremont Factory, has already been observed to have a cycle time of about 170-200 seconds as per drone videos of the contraption. This is already quicker than JP Morgan’s estimates, and this is also with the machine’s operations still being optimized.
Specifications of the Giga Press from IDRA also indicate that the machines could have a cycle time of ~80-90 seconds, allowing an output of 40-45 castings per hour or about 1,000 castings per day. Considering that Tesla is still in the process of mastering its house-sized machines, there seems to be a good chance that the electric car maker could produce 350k Model Y in one year using far less than 8-10 Giga Presses.
Check out DCM1’s operations as of late January in the video below.
Don’t hesitate to contact us for news tips. Just send a message to tips@teslarati.com to give us a heads up.
Elon Musk
Tesla finalizes AI5 chip design, Elon Musk makes bold claim on capability
The Tesla CEO’s words mark a strategic shift. Tesla has long emphasized software-hardware co-design, squeezing maximum performance from every transistor. Musk previously described AI5 as optimized for edge inference in both Robotaxi and Optimus.
Tesla has finalized its chip design for AI5, as Elon Musk confirmed today that the new chip has reached the tape-out stage, the final step before mass production.
But in a brief reply on X, Musk clarified Tesla’s AI hardware roadmap, essentially confirming that the new chip will not be utilized for being “enough to achieve much better than human safety for FSD.”
He said that AI4 is enough to do that.
Instead, the AI5 chip will be focused on Tesla’s big-time projects for the future: Optimus and supercomputer clusters.
Musk thanked TSMC and Samsung for production support, noting that AI5 could become “one of the most produced AI chips ever.” Yet, the key pivot came in his direct answer: vehicles no longer need the bleeding-edge silicon.
And thank you to @TaiwanSemi_TSC and @Samsung for your support in bringing this chip to production! It will be one of most produced AI chips ever.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) April 15, 2026
Existing AI4 hardware, which is already deployed in hundreds of thousands of HW4-equipped Teslas, delivers safety metrics superior to human drivers for Full Self-Driving. AI5 will instead accelerate Optimus robot development and massive Dojo-style training clusters.
The Tesla CEO’s words mark a strategic shift. Tesla has long emphasized software-hardware co-design, squeezing maximum performance from every transistor. Musk previously described AI5 as optimized for edge inference in both Robotaxi and Optimus.
Now, with AI4 proving sufficient, the company avoids costly retrofits across its fleet while redirecting next-generation compute toward higher-value applications: dexterous robots and exponential training scale.
But is it reasonable to assume AI4 enables unsupervised self-driving? Yes, but with important caveats.
On the hardware side, the claim is credible. Tesla’s FSD stack runs end-to-end neural networks trained on billions of miles of real-world data. Internal safety data reportedly shows AI4-equipped vehicles already outperforming average human drivers by a significant margin in controlled metrics (collision avoidance, reaction time, edge-case handling).
Dual-redundant AI4 chips provide ample headroom for the driving task, leaving bandwidth for future model improvements without new silicon. Musk’s assertion aligns with Tesla’s pattern of over-provisioning compute early, then optimizing ruthlessly, exactly as HW3 once sufficed before HW4 scaled further.
Optimus and our supercomputer clusters.
AI4 is enough to achieve much better than human safety for FSD.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) April 15, 2026
Unsupervised autonomy, meaning Level 4 or higher, is not solely a compute problem. Regulatory approval remains the primary gate.
Even if AI4 achieves “much better than human” safety statistically, agencies like the NHTSA demand exhaustive validation, liability frameworks, and public trust.
Tesla’s supervised FSD has shown rapid gains in recent versions, yet real-world edge cases, like construction zones, emergency vehicles, and adverse weather, still require driver intervention in many jurisdictions. Competitors like Waymo operate limited unsupervised fleets, but only in geofenced areas with extensive mapping. Tesla’s vision-only, fleet-scale approach is more ambitious—and harder to certify globally.
In short, Musk’s post is both pragmatic and bullish. AI4 is likely capable of unsupervised FSD from a technical standpoint. Whether regulators and consumers agree, and how quickly, will determine if Tesla’s bet pays off.
The company’s capital-efficient path keeps existing cars relevant while pouring future compute into robots. If the safety data holds, unsupervised autonomy could arrive sooner than many expect.
Elon Musk
Elon Musk signals expansion of Tesla’s unique side business
Long envisioning the Tesla Diner as more than a charging stop, Musk has clearly adopted the idea that the Supercharger and Restaurant combo is a good thing for the company to have. It’s a blend of classic American drive-in culture with futuristic Tesla flair, complete with a 1950s-inspired design, movie screens, and on-site dining.
Elon Musk has signaled an expansion of Tesla’s unique side business, something that really has nothing to do with cars or spaceships, but fans of the company have truly adopted it as just another one of its awesome ventures.
Musk confirmed on Wednesday that Tesla would build a new Diner location in Palo Alto, Northern California. After hinting last October that it “probably makes sense to open one near our Giga Texas HQ in Austin and engineering HQ in Palo Alto,” it seems one of those locations is being set into motion.
Sure
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) April 15, 2026
Long envisioning the Tesla Diner as more than a charging stop, Musk has clearly adopted the idea that the Supercharger and Restaurant combo is a good thing for the company to have. It’s a blend of classic American drive-in culture with futuristic Tesla flair, complete with a 1950s-inspired design, movie screens, and on-site dining.
He first floated broader expansion plans shortly after the LA opening in July 2025, noting that if the prototype succeeded, Tesla would roll out similar venues in major cities worldwide and along long-distance Supercharger routes.
Earlier hints included a confirmed second site at Starbase in Texas, tied to SpaceX operations, underscoring the Diner’s role in enhancing Tesla’s ecosystem behind vehicles.
The Los Angeles location on Santa Monica Boulevard in West Hollywood has served as a high-profile test case. Opened in July 2025 at 7001 Santa Monica Blvd., it features the world’s largest urban Supercharging station with 80 V4 stalls open to all NACS-compatible EVs, over 250 dining seats, rooftop views, and 24/7 service.
The retro-futuristic building replaced a former Shakey’s and quickly became a destination. Tesla reported selling 50,000 burgers in the first 72 days—an average of over 700 daily—drawing crowds with Cybertruck-shaped packaging, breakfast extensions until 2 p.m., and movie screenings.
Palo Alto stands out as a logical next step for several reasons. As Tesla’s longstanding engineering headquarters in the heart of Silicon Valley, the city is home to thousands of Tesla employees, engineers, and executives who could benefit from a convenient, branded gathering spot.
The area boasts high EV adoption rates, dense tech talent, and heavy traffic along key corridors, making a large Supercharger-diner an ideal fit for both daily commuters and long-haul travelers.
Proximity to Stanford University and the innovation ecosystem would amplify its appeal, potentially serving as a showcase for Tesla’s vision of integrated mobility and lifestyle experiences. It could be a great way for Tesla to recruit new talent from one of the country’s best universities.
If Tesla and Musk decide to move forward with a Palo Alto diner, it would build directly on the LA prototype’s momentum while addressing Musk’s earlier calls for expansion near core Tesla hubs.
Whether it materializes as a full confirmation or evolves from these hints remains to be seen, but the pattern is clear: Tesla is testing ways to make charging stops memorable. For EV drivers and enthusiasts alike, a Silicon Valley outpost could blend cutting-edge tech with nostalgic comfort, further embedding Tesla into everyday culture. As Musk’s comments suggest, the future of the Diner looks promising.
Elon Musk
The Starship V3 static fire everyone was waiting for just happened
SpaceX completed a full duration of Starship V3 today clearing the path for Flight 12.
SpaceX is that much closer to launching their next-gen Starship after completing today’s full duration static fire out of Starbase, Texas. This marks a direct signal that Flight 12, the maiden voyage of Starship V3, is imminent. SpaceX confirmed the test on X, posting that the full duration firing was completed ahead of the vehicle’s next flight test.
The road to today started on March 16, when Booster 19 completed a shorter 10-engine static fire, also at the newly constructed Pad 2. That test ended early due to a ground systems issue but confirmed all installed Raptor 3 engines started cleanly. Booster 19 returned to the Mega Bay, received its remaining 23 engines for a full complement of 33, and rolled back out this week for the complete test campaign. Musk confirmed earlier this month that Flight 12 is now 4 to 6 weeks away.
Countdown: America is going back to the Moon and SpaceX holds the key to what comes after
The numbers behind the world’s most powerful rocket are genuinely hard to put in context. Each Raptor 3 engine produces roughly 280 tons of thrust, and with all 33 firing simultaneously from the super heavy booster, this generates approximately 9,240 tons of combined thrust, more than any rocket in history. For context, that’s enough thrust to lift the entire Empire State Building, and then some. V3 stands 408 feet tall and can carry over 100 tons to low Earth orbit in a fully reusable configuration. The V2 generation topped out at around 35 tons.
Historically, a successful full-duration static fire is the last major ground milestone before launch. SpaceX has followed this pattern with every Starship iteration since the program began in 2023. Musk has been direct about the ambition behind all of it. “I am highly confident that the V3 design will achieve full reusability,” he wrote on X earlier this year. Full reusability of both stages is the foundation of SpaceX’s plan to make regular flights to the Moon and Mars economically viable. Today’s test brings that goal one significant step closer.
Starship V3 delivers on two most critical promises of full reusability and in-orbit refueling. The reusability case is straightforward, and one we have seen with Falcon 9 wherein the rocket can fly again within a day rather than building a new one for every mission. It’s the only economic model that makes frequent lunar cargo runs viable. The in-orbit refueling piece is less obvious but equally essential. To reach the Moon with enough payload, Starship requires roughly ten dedicated tanker flights to fuel up a propellant depot in low Earth orbit before it can even begin its journey to the lunar surface. That capability has never been demonstrated at scale, and Flight 12 is the first step toward proving it works. As Teslarati reported, NASA’s Artemis II crew completed a historic lunar flyby earlier this month, the first humans to travel beyond low Earth orbit since 1972, but getting astronauts to actually land and eventually supply a permanent Moon base requires a cargo pipeline that only a fully reusable, refuelable Starship V3 can deliver at the volume and cost NASA’s plans demand.
