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JP Morgan admits Tesla’s Giga Press advantage, but posts strangely low output estimate
The advantages of Tesla’s Giga Press machines have been acknowledged by JP Morgan in a recent analysis, with the Wall St firm noting that the massive contraptions could very well be a game-changer for the electric car maker. However, amidst the firm’s optimism, JP Morgan’s analysis did feature something quite strange, particularly on estimates about the Giga Press’ annual output.
JP Morgan noted that it visited LK Tech, the largest die casting machine supplier in the market, for its analysis. The firm stated that it was able to meet the Founder and CEO of LK Tech and the Head of IDRA, the company’s Italian subsidiary that has so far provided Giga Presses in the Fremont Factory, Giga Berlin, and Giga Texas. Tesla’s Giga Shanghai has been spotted with Giga Presses that are branded with LK Tech.
JPMorgan analyses Tesla’s Giga Press 👇🏻$TSLA pic.twitter.com/cwc4eAzoMJ
— David Tayar (@davidtayar5) February 11, 2021
The Wall Street firm’s analysis showcased several insights that have been discussed by industry experts such as Sandy Munro in the past, such as the Giga Press’ capability to simplify Tesla’s vehicle assembly process by replacing 70 pieces of metal into a single-piece megacast. JP Morgan also acknowledged that with the Giga Press, Tesla could adopt a lightweight, cost-efficient, and more straightforward production process, giving it an edge against its competitors in the auto segment.
Things become more interesting when JP Morgan shared its estimates on the Giga Press’ output, however. In a section listed as “The Maths,” the Wall Street firm assumed that each Giga Press would be capable of producing one part every 4-5 minutes, or about 240-300 seconds. At this rate, the firm estimated that one Giga Press would have an annual output of 70-90k units, which meant that Tesla would need about 8-10 Giga Presses to manufacture 350k Model Y per year.
“Assuming the casting machine produces one body part every 4-5 mins, around 70-90k units of annual production can be generated from one Giga Press. Given two Giga Presses are needed for each Model Y (one front ad one rear body part), it is estimated that around 8-10 Giga Presses are needed for the production of 350k units of Model Y,” JP Morgan wrote.
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This estimate is notably lower than what has been expected by the electric vehicle community, mainly since Die-Casting Machine #1 (DCM1), which was recently deployed in the Fremont Factory, has already been observed to have a cycle time of about 170-200 seconds as per drone videos of the contraption. This is already quicker than JP Morgan’s estimates, and this is also with the machine’s operations still being optimized.
Specifications of the Giga Press from IDRA also indicate that the machines could have a cycle time of ~80-90 seconds, allowing an output of 40-45 castings per hour or about 1,000 castings per day. Considering that Tesla is still in the process of mastering its house-sized machines, there seems to be a good chance that the electric car maker could produce 350k Model Y in one year using far less than 8-10 Giga Presses.
Check out DCM1’s operations as of late January in the video below.
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Elon Musk shed two new bits of detail on Starship following its 13th test launch, which was an overwhelming success.
SpaceX launched Starship for the 13th time last Friday after two delays: one on Monday when several Raptor engines did not ignite, and another on Thursday due to unfavorable weather conditions in Starbase, Texas.
The launch was overwhelmingly successful. SpaceX was able to complete a necessary test of the heat shield tiles by increasing the acceleration of Starship from launch throughout the flight; 20 Starlink v3 satellites were released with no issue; the Super Heavy Booster landed safely in the Gulf of America, Ship successfully reignited engines while in space; and it also splashed down without incident in the Indian Ocean.
SpaceX Starship just nailed something it’s never done before
Nevertheless, more details are coming out about Starship, and Musk is doing the talking.
Starship Will Be Retrieved in the Ocean
Musk revealed on Tuesday night that Starship would be recovered by a ship in the Indian Ocean. SpaceX routinely tries to recover Starship after splashdown in an effort to find out more about the flight by examining the spacecraft afterward.
We’re sending a ship out to recover Starship https://t.co/fUqUZTITO9
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 28, 2026
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This helps engineers find out more about why things might have happened, allows them to examine any potential damage or anomalies that might have occurred, and increases the chances of an even more successful flight next time thanks to the additional information recovered.
Ship Could Have Been Caught by Tower Arms, Musk claims
Musk has already indicated that SpaceX will plan to attempt a catch of Starship with the 14th test flight. While this would be a major accomplishment, it would be an expected next step, considering the fact that the Super Heavy Booster has already been caught by the chopsticks on numerous occasions.
The ship landing was precise, meaning that it would have been caught by the tower arms https://t.co/6nbNrRfX9P
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 29, 2026
A ship catch would be a great indication of where SpaceX stands in terms of reusability and launch cadence. A successful catch with relatively no incidents would be a good sign that SpaceX is nearing a more frequent launch of Starship, but also that the reusability of the massive rocket would be something many would expect in the near future.
It is a necessity to make life multiplanetary.
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Elon Musk has updated his timeline for when humans will walk on Mars and for when ships will simply get there.
The objective of getting to Mars has been one of Musk’s biggest goals since becoming a serial entrepreneur and realizing that time on Earth is limited. Musk has said several times he hopes to die on Mars, and not by impact.
Musk now believes that people will be on Mars in “roughly 5 to 7 years.” He said that a Mars lander will get there “a few years sooner.”
People on Mars in roughly 5 to 7 years.
Mars lander a few years sooner.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 29, 2026
The response from Musk comes after NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman said that SpaceX’s biggest priority is the Moon and not Mars. Because of this, Isaacman conceded that he believes nuclear power and propulsion investments will provide “potentially the pathway with the fewest miracles required to put four people on Mars in the next 10 to 15 years.”
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Of course, this is what NASA can do through taxpayer funding and nuclear investments, he added.
Musk’s grand ambitions are much more optimistic than most, and it is certainly a double-edged sword. This is not the first time timelines for Mars have been somewhat lofty, especially to those normal thinkers like you and me, not super geniuses like Musk.
In fact, the SpaceX and Tesla frontman has said on at least a dozen occasions that we could be on Mars in the coming years. Musk said 2020 would be the big year as early as 2009. In 2020, he was “highly confident” of a landing in 2026, and had even said 2024 in a best-case scenario.
The point is, the range has varied, and it’s anyone’s guess when we’ll get there. This latest adjustment to the timeline is typical of Musk, and while the Moon has seemingly taken priority over Mars, it is still worth mentioning that the ultimate goal is to make life multiplanetary, and it starts potentially with the Red Planet.
SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) got an absolutely crazy price target rating from Raymond James after the company experienced a tough first few weeks following its Initial Public Offering (IPO).
Despite the tumultuous start, SpaceX has plenty of believers, and the company’s massively successful Starship launch last Friday, its 13th test flight of the massive rocket, went so smoothly that Raymond James analysts pushed its price target on the company to roughly 7 times its current trading level.
SpaceX Starship just nailed something it’s never done before
The firm officially put a “Strong Buy” rating and an $800 price target on the stock. It currently trades at around $113. Its all-time high is $225.64, reaching this trading level shortly after shares first went public.
Raymond James’ price target is tied to the firm’s confidence after Starship’s 13th test flight. Analysts at the firm said it was an incremental step that reduces engineering risks, citing the widely successful heat shield test that CEO Elon Musk recently detailed, the smooth deployment of Starlink V3 satellites, and a successful in-space engine relight.
SpaceX also managed to see Starship splash down safely in the Indian Ocean, while the Super Heavy Booster fell down to the Gulf of America with no incidents.
It is interesting to see these launches have such a tremendous impact on the stock and what investors think of it. After SpaceX initially delayed the Starship launch last week, shares fell tremendously. Most probably did not realize that the stand-down is a standard practice, especially if everything is not perfect.
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The mission was initially aborted due to an issue with Raptor engines. This was resolved, and Starship launched last Friday after another delay on Thursday, which was caused by weather.
Now that analysts have seen what SpaceX launches are capable of and how impressive the feat is, firms are adjusting their price targets accordingly, making it known that they have high expectations for the space exploration company.
Elon Musk sheds two new bits of detail on Starship after 13th test launch
Elon Musk updates the SpaceX timeline for Mars
