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JP Morgan admits Tesla’s Giga Press advantage, but posts strangely low output estimate

(Credit: Gabeincal/YouTube)

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The advantages of Tesla’s Giga Press machines have been acknowledged by JP Morgan in a recent analysis, with the Wall St firm noting that the massive contraptions could very well be a game-changer for the electric car maker. However, amidst the firm’s optimism, JP Morgan’s analysis did feature something quite strange, particularly on estimates about the Giga Press’ annual output. 

JP Morgan noted that it visited LK Tech, the largest die casting machine supplier in the market, for its analysis. The firm stated that it was able to meet the Founder and CEO of LK Tech and the Head of IDRA, the company’s Italian subsidiary that has so far provided Giga Presses in the Fremont Factory, Giga Berlin, and Giga Texas. Tesla’s Giga Shanghai has been spotted with Giga Presses that are branded with LK Tech. 

The Wall Street firm’s analysis showcased several insights that have been discussed by industry experts such as Sandy Munro in the past, such as the Giga Press’ capability to simplify Tesla’s vehicle assembly process by replacing 70 pieces of metal into a single-piece megacast. JP Morgan also acknowledged that with the Giga Press, Tesla could adopt a lightweight, cost-efficient, and more straightforward production process, giving it an edge against its competitors in the auto segment. 

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Things become more interesting when JP Morgan shared its estimates on the Giga Press’ output, however. In a section listed as “The Maths,” the Wall Street firm assumed that each Giga Press would be capable of producing one part every 4-5 minutes, or about 240-300 seconds. At this rate, the firm estimated that one Giga Press would have an annual output of 70-90k units, which meant that Tesla would need about 8-10 Giga Presses to manufacture 350k Model Y per year. 

“Assuming the casting machine produces one body part every 4-5 mins, around 70-90k units of annual production can be generated from one Giga Press. Given two Giga Presses are needed for each Model Y (one front ad one rear body part), it is estimated that around 8-10 Giga Presses are needed for the production of 350k units of Model Y,” JP Morgan wrote. 

This estimate is notably lower than what has been expected by the electric vehicle community, mainly since Die-Casting Machine #1 (DCM1), which was recently deployed in the Fremont Factory, has already been observed to have a cycle time of about 170-200 seconds as per drone videos of the contraption. This is already quicker than JP Morgan’s estimates, and this is also with the machine’s operations still being optimized. 

Specifications of the Giga Press from IDRA also indicate that the machines could have a cycle time of ~80-90 seconds, allowing an output of 40-45 castings per hour or about 1,000 castings per day. Considering that Tesla is still in the process of mastering its house-sized machines, there seems to be a good chance that the electric car maker could produce 350k Model Y in one year using far less than 8-10 Giga Presses. 

Check out DCM1’s operations as of late January in the video below.

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Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Tesla Optimus steals the show during TRON: ARES premiere

Now that kung-fu Optimus demonstration makes sense.

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Credit: Tesla Optimus/X

Just a few days ago, Elon Musk shared a video of Tesla Optimus demonstrating some kung fu moves with a human partner. The video was impressive, though some were confused about why the Optimus team was busying itself with what appeared to be a cool but frivolous demonstration. 

With the premiere of TRON: ARES, we now know that Optimus’ kung fu demonstration was part of the robot’s preparations for the red carpet. 

Optimus “starts a fight”

As noted by X Business on its official account on the social media platform, the TRON: ARES red carpet world premiere was a showcase of today’s AI-powered technologies. With this in mind, xAI, X, Walt Disney, and Tesla collaborated to provide attendees with an immersive experience on real-world AI. This included Optimus engaging with attendees, and even distributing theater concessions. 

But one black and red painted Optimus unit definitely stole the show. The humanoid robot, in front of several attendees, attempted to “pick a fight” with Jared Leto, who starts in the movie alongside Greta Lee, Evan Peters, and Jeff Bridges. As could be seen in the video of Optimus, the robot’s moves in the red carpet were similar to the kung fu demonstration that Elon Musk showcased last week. 

TRON: ARES

Monique Pintarelli, Head of Americas at X, shared some insights about the event, which ended up being a collaboration of sorts between several Elon Musk-led companies. 

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“This partnership with Disney lets fans and stars experience the world of TRON like never before – turning the red carpet event into a collision between the real world and AI. By leveraging X’s unparalleled real-time engagement and xAI’s cutting-edge technology alongside Tesla’s Optimus robots, we’re creating shared, immersive experiences that redefine storytelling,” the X executive noted.

TRON: ARES releases on U.S. theaters on October 10, 2025. 

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Tesla FSD (Supervised) V14.1 with Robotaxi-style dropoffs is here

This represents FSD’s most significant update in nearly a year.

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Credit: Sawyer Merritt/X

Tesla has started the rollout of Full Self-Driving (Supervised) V14.1, the advanced driver-assist system’s most significant update in nearly a year. The release introduces vision-based navigation for real-time detour handling and a new “Arrival Options” feature that simulates Robotaxi-style drop-offs.

New Tesla Vision-based features

With Version 14.1, Tesla has integrated navigation and routing directly into its vision-based neural network, enabling the system to respond to scenarios such as blocked roads or closures in real time. The update also enhances emergency vehicle detection, allowing the car to pull over or yield when police, fire, or ambulances are nearby.

Other improvements include refined responses to debris, school buses, and lane cut-ins, as well as smoother handling of unprotected turns and gated entries. The update also adds a Robotaxi-style automatic camera-cleaning system. Tesla also promises improved fault recovery for greater reliability during degraded system operation.

New Speed Profiles and other features

Drivers can now personalize FSD’s behavior more precisely through new Speed Profiles. A new “Sloth” mode has joined the lineup, offering a more conservative lane and speed selection than “Chill.” Preferences for parking and arrival positions are saved per destination, while the system’s reasoning model automatically recommends several options for each route.

Users can start FSD from a single tap, adjust settings from the central visualization, and expect fewer driver “nags,” according to Elon Musk. The CEO noted that Version 14 features a 10x higher parameter count and said it “feels sentient” compared to earlier builds. While it’s still a supervised system, unlike the Austin Robotaxi pilot, FSD 14.1 seems to be a key milestone toward the refinement of Tesla’s autonomous driving efforts.

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FSD (Supervised) V14.1 release notes

Following are the release notes for FSD (Supervised) V14.1:

FSD(Supervised) v14.1 includes:

• Added Arrival Options for you to select where FSD should park: in a Parking Lot, on the Street, in a Driveway, in a Parking Garage, or at the Curbside.

• Added handling to pull over or yield for emergency vehicles (e.g. police cars, fire trucks, ambulances).

• Added navigation and routing into the vision-based neural network for real-time handling of blocked roads and detours.

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• Added additional Speed Profile to further customize driving style preference.

• Improved handling for static and dynamic gates.

• Improved offsetting for road debris (e.g. tires, tree branches, boxes).

• Improve handling of several scenarios including: unprotected turns, lane changes, vehicle cut-ins, and school buses.

Improved FSD’s ability to manage system faults and recover smoothly from degraded operation for enhanced reliability.

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• Added automatic narrow field washing to provide rapid and efficient front camera self-cleaning, and optimize aerodynamics wash at higher vehicle speed.

• Added alerting for residue build-up on interior windshield that may impact front camera visibility. If affected, visit Service for cleaning!

Upcoming Improvements:

• Overall smoothness and sentience

• Parking spot selection and parking quality

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• You can now select an arrival option such as Parking Lot, Street, Driveway, Parking Garage and Curbside for Robotaxi-style drop offs.

• Your preferences for arrival options and preferred parking positions are persisted for each destination.

• Our reasoning model will assess the suitable options for your destination and pick an intuitive default.

Speed Profiles:

FSD (Supervised) will now determine the appropriate speed based on a mix of driver profile, speed limit, and surrounding traffic:

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• Introduced new Speed Profile SLOTH, which comes with lower speeds & more conservative lane selection than CHILL.

• Driver profile now has a stronger impact on behavior. The more assertive the profile, the higher the max speed.

• Right scroll-wheel up/down now adjusts Speed Profile setting rather than your precise max speed offset selection in mph/kph.

UI Improvements:

• Start Self-Driving with a tap of the touchscreen from Park, or any time during your drive.

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• Adjust settings like the Speed Profile and Arrival Options directly from the Autopilot visualization on the center display.

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Tesla plant manager tips off affordable model production

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Credit: @Gf4Tesla/X

A plant manager at a Tesla factory just tipped off the fact that the company will begin production of an affordable model in the coming weeks, all but confirming that a new car will be unveiled tomorrow.

Tesla has been teasing some kind of product unveiling for October 7 on its social media accounts. It has now dropped two separate indications that a new product is coming on its X account.

Fans have been anticipating two things: either the company’s planned affordable model, which has been codenamed “E41,” or the Roadster, a long-awaited vehicle that Tesla has kept under wraps for much longer than it would likely care to admit.

Tesla all but confirms that affordable Model Y is coming Tuesday

André Thierig, Tesla’s plant manager at the German production plant Gigafactory Berlin, tipped off what is likely coming tomorrow at the product unveiling as he revealed during an internal event today that a light version of the Model Y will begin series production and deliveries “in a few weeks.”

Thierig’s revealing of plans was reported by Handelsblatt, a German media outlet.

The description of a “light version of the Model Y” aligns with what CEO Elon Musk said earlier this year, as well as what we have seen on public roads, both covered and uncovered.

Last week, we finally saw an uncovered version of what the affordable model likely is, as it was cruising around near Gigafactory Texas, just outside of Austin.

Tesla coding shows affordable model details, including potential price

Musk said earlier this year, candidly during an Earnings Call, that the affordable model Tesla planned to release was a Model Y.

“It’s just a Model Y. Let the cat out of the bag there,” Musk said.

The images of what we assumed to be the affordable model lined up with Musk’s candid statement:

Tesla is expected to unveil its affordable model tomorrow during the planned event, which has been teased twice. Pricing and other details are still pending, but the company is expected to reveal this information tomorrow.

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