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Tesla is poised to deliver roughly 83,000 Model 3 cars in 2017
A new analysis by Ben Sullins of Teslanomics has Model 3 deliveries pegged at roughly 83,000 cars delivered in 2017. The bold prediction was derived from a series of statements made by Tesla CEO Elon Musk around Model 3 production ramp, guidance from Tesla’s First Quarter results, and historic data outlining production capacity for the Fremont factory.
To ground Teslanomic’s estimate in a bit of reality, Ben analyzed the production capacity of Tesla’s Fremont factory back when it was known as the NUMMI plant. NUMMI was a joint venture between Toyota and General Motors that had a total production capacity of approximately 500,000 vehicles per year. Admittedly, the factory built very different vehicles from Tesla that required internal combustion engines, transmissions and gas tanks. Ben used relevant data to corroborate Tesla’s initial estimates, before turning to automotive analyst Steve Funk for additional insight.
Funk unpacked NUMMI’s factory production capacity and found that Tesla’s goal to hit its intended production figure was a bit optimistic. The NUMMI factory produced its last vehicle on April 1, 2010 after which “NUMMI sold off equipment at an auction, with robots and tooling going to Toyota plants in Kentucky, Texas and Mississippi. NUMMI sold some equipment to Tesla for $15 million.” Tesla bought the majority of land that made up the factory and proceeded to revolutionize the auto industry by producing the all-electric Model S, followed by Tesla’s “best car ever”.
Knowing that Tesla is using the first of the two existing production lines to produce Model S and Model X, Funk estimates that Tesla would be able to produce 225,900 on the second production line, while taking into account throughput of the second line and the addition of a second shift.
Because Model 3 battery packs and other components are being produced offsite at the Sparks, Nevada Gigafactory 1 plant, completed parts must then be transported to the Fremont factory for final Model 3 assembly. That is a lot of moving parts and logistics Tesla will continue to refine this year within its own supply chain.
Ben plotted data points he obtained into a traditional S-curve and adjusted it down from Tesla’s extrapolated estimate of 100,000+ Model 3 deliveries in 2017. The end result? Tesla will deliver roughly 83,000 Model 3 sedans this year according to Teslanomics.
Investor's Corner
Tesla (TSLA) Q4 and FY 2025 earnings results
Tesla’s Q4 and FY 2025 earnings come on the heels of a quarter where the company produced over 434,000 vehicles, delivered over 418,000 vehicles, and deployed 14.2 GWh of energy storage products.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has released its Q4 and FY 2025 earnings results in an update letter. The document was posted on the electric vehicle maker’s official Investor Relations website after markets closed today, January 28, 2025.
Tesla’s Q4 and FY 2025 earnings come on the heels of a quarter where the company produced over 434,000 vehicles, delivered over 418,000 vehicles, and deployed 14.2 GWh of energy storage products.
For the Full Year 2025, Tesla produced 1,654,667 and delivered 1,636,129 vehicles. The company also deployed a total of 46.7 GWh worth of energy storage products.
Tesla’s Q4 and FY 2025 results
As could be seen in Tesla’s Q4 and FY 2025 Update Letter, the company posted GAAP EPS of $0.24 and non-GAAP EPS of $0.50 per share in the fourth quarter. Tesla also posted total revenues of $24.901 billion. GAAP net income is also listed at $840 million in Q4.
Analyst consensus for Q4 has Tesla earnings per share falling 38% to $0.45 with revenue declining 4% to $24.74 billion, as per estimates from FactSet. In comparison, the consensus compiled by Tesla last week forecasted $0.44 per share on sales totaling $24.49 billion.
For FY 2025, Tesla posted GAAP EPS of $1.08 and non-GAAP EPS of $1.66 per share. Tesla also posted total revenues of $94.827 billion, which include $69.526 billion from automotive and $12.771 billion from the battery storage business. GAAP net income is also listed at $3.794 billion in FY 2025.
xAI Investment
Tesla entered an agreement to invest approximately $2 billion to acquire Series E preferred shares in Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence startup, xAI, as part of the company’s recently disclosed financing round. Tesla said the investment was made on market terms consistent with those agreed to by other participants in the round.
The investment aligns with Tesla’s strategy under Master Plan Part IV, which centers on bringing artificial intelligence into the physical world through products and services. While Tesla focuses on real-world AI applications, xAI is developing digital AI platforms, including its Grok large language model.
Below is Tesla’s Q4 and FY 2025 update letter.
TSLA-Q4-2025-Update by Simon Alvarez
News
Tesla rolls out new Supercharging safety feature in the U.S.
Tesla has rolled out a new Supercharging safety feature in the United States, one that will answer concerns that some owners may have if they need to leave in a pinch.
It is also a suitable alternative for non-Tesla chargers, like third-party options that feature J1772 or CCS to NACS adapters.
The feature has been available in Europe for some time, but it is now rolling out to Model 3 and Model Y owners in the U.S.
With Software Update 2026.2.3, Tesla is launching the Unlatching Charge Cable function, which will now utilize the left rear door handle to release the charging cable from the port. The release notes state:
“Charging can now be stopped and the charge cable released by pulling and holding the rear left door handle for three seconds, provided the vehicle is unlocked, and a recognized key is nearby. This is especially useful when the charge cable doesn’t have an unlatch button. You can still release the cable using the vehicle touchscreen or the Tesla app.”
The feature was first spotted by Not a Tesla App.
This is an especially nice feature for those who commonly charge at third-party locations that utilize plugs that are not NACS, which is the Tesla standard.
For example, after plugging into a J1772 charger, you will still be required to unlock the port through the touchscreen, which is a minor inconvenience, but an inconvenience nonetheless.
Additionally, it could be viewed as a safety feature, especially if you’re in need of unlocking the charger from your car in a pinch. Simply holding open the handle on the rear driver’s door will now unhatch the port from the car, allowing you to pull it out and place it back in its housing.
This feature is currently only available on the Model 3 and Model Y, so Model S, Model X, and Cybertruck owners will have to wait for a different solution to this particular feature.
News
LG Energy Solution pursuing battery deal for Tesla Optimus, other humanoid robots: report
Optimus is expected to be one of Tesla’s most ambitious projects, with Elon Musk estimating that the humanoid robot could be the company’s most important product.
A recent report has suggested that LG Energy Solution is in discussions to supply batteries for Tesla’s Optimus humanoid robot.
Optimus is expected to be one of Tesla’s most ambitious projects, with Elon Musk estimating that the humanoid robot could be the company’s most important product.
Humanoid robot battery deals
LG Energy Solution shares jumped more than 11% on the 28th after a report from the Korea Economic Daily claimed that the company is pursuing battery supply and joint development agreements with several humanoid robot makers. These reportedly include Tesla, which is developing Optimus, as well as multiple Chinese robotics companies.
China is already home to several leading battery manufacturers, such as CATL and BYD, making the robot makers’ reported interest in LG Energy Solution quite interesting. Market participants interpreted the reported outreach as a signal that performance requirements for humanoid robots may favor battery chemistries developed by companies like LG.
LF Energy Solution vs rivals
According to the report, energy density is believed to be the primary reason humanoid robot developers are evaluating LG Energy Solution’s batteries. Unlike electric vehicles, humanoid robots have significantly less space available for battery packs while requiring substantial power to operate dozens of joint motors and onboard artificial intelligence processors.
LG Energy Solution’s ternary lithium batteries offer higher energy density compared with rivals’ lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries, which are widely used by Chinese EV manufacturers. That advantage could prove critical for humanoid robots, where runtime, weight, and compact packaging are key design constraints.