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Tesla’s nearly 300k Model 3 VIN registrations hint at healthy US demand

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Tesla appears to be on track to break the 300k barrier in its Model 3 VIN registrations this quarter, filing more than 74,000 vehicles on January and more than 24,000 cars this month. While these numbers are undoubtedly impressive, the recent batch of VINs registered by the company also hints at something notable — a steady demand for the Model 3 in the United States.

Based on the data gathered by Model 3 VIN registration tracking group @Model3VINs, Tesla had registered more than 44,000 vehicles this quarter for North America, comprised of both AWD and RWD units. This past Saturday alone, Tesla registered a large batch of 13,225 Model 3 VINs, and more than 95% were RWD units designated for the region, where the car has been available since it entered production in mid-2017 (Canada is the first country outside the United States that received the electric sedan). With this in mind, this recent batch of VIN filings hints at more than 12,000 RWD vehicles intended for the US and Canada. 

Following the fourth quarter’s results, a TSLA bear thesis has emerged claiming that Tesla has exhausted the demand for the Model 3 in the United States. Nevertheless, the most recent registration for North American vehicles suggest that even Tesla’s most affordable Model 3 variant to date — the Mid Range RWD — continues to see some healthy demand in the region. It should also be noted that Tesla still has more than a month to register and produce more Model 3 units for the US. Overall, this all but highlights Elon Musk’s words during the Q4 2018 earnings call, when he stated that Tesla is not facing a demand problem.

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“I feel very confident about Model 3 demand. The customer happiness level with the car is incredible, and I think probably the highest of any car in the world right now, I think. And so you can tell like; basically, nobody wants to sell (their) car,” Musk said.

Tesla’s Model 3 VIN registrations every quarter.(Credit: Model3VINs.com)

Granted, VIN filings do not directly correspond with Tesla’s actual production numbers, but the registrations themselves have been quite effective at estimating the company’s manufacturing trends every quarter, as seen in the increasing accuracy of Bloomberg‘s Model 3 VIN tracker.

While the Model 3 is already making waves in the United States (and seems poised to do the same for Europe and China), it should be noted that Tesla is not starting its attack on the lower end of the market yet. For Tesla to compete in this segment, the company would have to successfully produce the elusive base Model 3, which is priced at $35,000 before incentives and savings. So far, Tesla appears to be taking steps towards the production of the vehicle, with the Mid Range Model 3 RWD now priced at a reasonable $42,900. With this in mind, it could only be a matter of time before the company starts making its most disruptive Model 3 yet. 

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Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

Elon Musk

Elon Musk is now a remote DOGE worker: White House Chief of Staff

The Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk is no longer working from the West Wing.

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Credit: Elon Musk/X

In a conversation with the New York Post, White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles stated that Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk is no longer working from the West Wing.

As per the Chief of Staff, Musk is still working for DOGE—as a remote worker, at least.

Remote Musk

In her conversation with the publication, Wiles stated that she still talks with Musk. And while the CEO is now working remotely, his contributions still have the same net effect. 

“Instead of meeting with him in person, I’m talking to him on the phone, but it’s the same net effect,” Wiles stated, adding that “it really doesn’t matter much” that the CEO “hasn’t been here physically.” She also noted that Musk’s team will not be leaving.

“He’s not out of it altogether. He’s just not physically present as much as he was. The people that are doing this work are here doing good things and paying attention to the details. He’ll be stepping back a little, but he’s certainly not abandoning it. And his people are definitely not,” Wiles stated.

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Back to Tesla

Musk has been a frequent presence in the White House during the Trump administration’s first 100 days in office. But during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call, Musk stated that he would be spending substantially less time with DOGE and substantially more time with Tesla. Musk did emphasize, however, that DOGE’s work is extremely valuable and critical.

“I think I’ll continue to spend a day or two per week on government matters for as long as the President would like me to do so and as long as it is useful. But starting next month, I’ll be allocating probably more of my time to Tesla and now that the major work of establishing the Department of Government Efficiency is done,” Musk stated.

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Elon Musk

Tariff reprieve might be ‘Tesla-friendly,’ but it’s also an encouragement to others

Tesla stands to benefit from the tariff reprieve, but it has some work cut out for it as well.

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tesla employee
(Photo: Tesla)

After Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick made adjustments to the automotive tariff program that was initially announced, many quickly pointed to the reprieve as “Tesla-friendly.”

While that may be the case right now, it was also a nudge of encouragement to other companies, Tesla included, to source parts from the U.S. in an effort to strengthen domestic manufacturing. Many companies are close, and it will only take a handful of improvements to save themselves from tariffs on their cars as well.

Yesterday, Sec. Lutnick confirmed that cars manufactured with at least 85 percent of domestic content will face zero tariffs. Additionally, U.S. automakers would receive credit up to 15 percent of the value of vehicles to offset the cost of imported parts.

Big Tesla win? Sec Lutnick says cars with 85% domestic content will face zero tariffs

“This is ‘finish your cars in America and you win’,” Lutnick said.

Many were quick to point out that only three vehicles currently qualify for this zero-tariff threshold: all three are Teslas.

However, according to Kelley Blue Book’s most recent study that revealed who makes the most American cars, there are a lot of vehicles that are extremely close to also qualifying for these tariff reductions.

Tesla has three vehicles that are within five percent, while Ford, Honda, Jeep, Chevrolet, GMC, and Volkswagen have many within just ten percent of the threshold.

Tesla completely dominates Kogod School’s 2024 Made in America Auto Index

It is within reach for many.

Right now, it is easy to see why some people might think this is a benefit for Tesla and Tesla only.

But it’s not, because Tesla has its Cybertruck, Model S, and Model X just a few percentage points outside of that 85 percent cutoff. They, too, will feel the effects of the broader strategy that the Trump administration is using to prioritize domestic manufacturing and employment. More building in America means more jobs for Americans.

Credit: Tesla

However, other companies that are very close to the 85 percent cutoff are only a few components away from also saving themselves the hassle of the tariffs.

Ford has the following vehicles within just five percent of the 85 percent threshold:

  • Ford Mustang GT automatic (80%)
  • Ford Mustang GT 5.0 (80%)
  • Ford Mustang GT Coupe Premium (80%)

Honda has several within ten percent:

  • Honda Passport All-Wheel-Drive (76.5%)
  • Honda Passport Trailsport (76.5)

Jeep has two cars:

  • Jeep Wrangler Rubicon (76%)
  • Jeep Wrangler Sahara (76%)

Volkswagen has one with the ID.4 AWD 82-kWh (75.5%). GMC has two at 75.5% with the Canyon AT4 Crew Cab 4WD and the Canyon Denali Crew Cab 4WD.

Chevrolet has several:

  • Chevrolet Colorado 2.7-liter (75.5%)
  • Chevrolet Colorado LT Crew Cab 2WD 2.7-liter (75.5%)
  • Chevrolet Colorado Z71 Crew Cab 4WD 2.7-liter (75.5%)

These companies are close to reaching the 85% threshold, but adjustments need to be made to work toward that number.

Anything from seats to fabric to glass can be swapped out for American-made products, making these cars more domestically sourced and thus qualifying them for the zero-tariff boundary.

Frank DuBois of American University said that manufacturers like to see stability in their relationships with suppliers and major trade partners. He said that Trump’s tariff plan could cause “a period of real instability,” but it will only be temporary.

Now is the time to push American manufacturing forward, solidifying a future with more U.S.-made vehicles and creating more domestic jobs. Tesla will also need to scramble to make adjustments to its vehicles that are below 85%.

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Tesla Cybertruck RWD production in full swing at Giga Texas

Videos of several freshly produced Cybertruck LR RWD units were shared on social media platform X.

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Credit: Joe Tegtmeyer/X

It appears that Tesla is indeed ramping the production of the Cybertruck Long Range Rear Wheel Drive (LR RWD), the most affordable variant of the brutalist all-electric pickup truck.

Videos of several freshly produced Cybertruck LR RWD units were shared on social media platform X.

Giga Texas Footage

As per longtime Tesla watcher Joe Tegtmeyer, Giga, Texas, was a hotbed of activity when he conducted his recent drone flyover. Apart from what seemed to be Cybercab castings being gathered in the complex, a good number of Cybertruck LR RWD units could also be seen in the facility’s staging area. The Cybertruck LR RWD units are quite easy to spot since they are not equipped with the motorized tonneau cover that is standard on the Cybertruck AWD and Cyberbeast.

The presence of the Cybertruck LR RWD units in Giga Texas’ staging area suggests that Tesla is ramping the production of the base all-electric pickup truck. This bodes well for the vehicle, which is still premium priced despite missing a good number of features that are standard in the Cybertruck AWD and Cyberbeast.

Cybertruck Long Range RWD Specs

The Cybertruck LR RWD is priced at $69,990 before incentives, making it $10,000 more affordable than the Cybertruck AWD. For its price, the Cybertruck Long Range RWD offers a range of 350 miles per charge if equipped with its 18” standard Wheels. It can also add up to 147 miles of range in 15 minutes using a Tesla Supercharger.

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Much of the cost-cutting measures taken by Tesla are evident in the cabin of the Cybertruck LR RWD. This could be seen in its textile seats, standard console, seven-speaker audio system with no active noise cancellation, and lack of a 9.4” second-row display. It is also missing the motorized tonneau cover, the 2x 120V and 1x 240V power outlets on the bed, and the 2x 120V power outlets in the cabin. It is also equipped with an adaptive coil spring suspension instead of the adaptive air suspension in the Cybertruck AWD and Cyberbeast.

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