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Tesla’s nearly 300k Model 3 VIN registrations hint at healthy US demand

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Tesla appears to be on track to break the 300k barrier in its Model 3 VIN registrations this quarter, filing more than 74,000 vehicles on January and more than 24,000 cars this month. While these numbers are undoubtedly impressive, the recent batch of VINs registered by the company also hints at something notable — a steady demand for the Model 3 in the United States.

Based on the data gathered by Model 3 VIN registration tracking group @Model3VINs, Tesla had registered more than 44,000 vehicles this quarter for North America, comprised of both AWD and RWD units. This past Saturday alone, Tesla registered a large batch of 13,225 Model 3 VINs, and more than 95% were RWD units designated for the region, where the car has been available since it entered production in mid-2017 (Canada is the first country outside the United States that received the electric sedan). With this in mind, this recent batch of VIN filings hints at more than 12,000 RWD vehicles intended for the US and Canada. 

Following the fourth quarter’s results, a TSLA bear thesis has emerged claiming that Tesla has exhausted the demand for the Model 3 in the United States. Nevertheless, the most recent registration for North American vehicles suggest that even Tesla’s most affordable Model 3 variant to date — the Mid Range RWD — continues to see some healthy demand in the region. It should also be noted that Tesla still has more than a month to register and produce more Model 3 units for the US. Overall, this all but highlights Elon Musk’s words during the Q4 2018 earnings call, when he stated that Tesla is not facing a demand problem.

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“I feel very confident about Model 3 demand. The customer happiness level with the car is incredible, and I think probably the highest of any car in the world right now, I think. And so you can tell like; basically, nobody wants to sell (their) car,” Musk said.

Tesla’s Model 3 VIN registrations every quarter.(Credit: Model3VINs.com)

Granted, VIN filings do not directly correspond with Tesla’s actual production numbers, but the registrations themselves have been quite effective at estimating the company’s manufacturing trends every quarter, as seen in the increasing accuracy of Bloomberg‘s Model 3 VIN tracker.

While the Model 3 is already making waves in the United States (and seems poised to do the same for Europe and China), it should be noted that Tesla is not starting its attack on the lower end of the market yet. For Tesla to compete in this segment, the company would have to successfully produce the elusive base Model 3, which is priced at $35,000 before incentives and savings. So far, Tesla appears to be taking steps towards the production of the vehicle, with the Mid Range Model 3 RWD now priced at a reasonable $42,900. With this in mind, it could only be a matter of time before the company starts making its most disruptive Model 3 yet. 

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Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Tesla takes a step towards removal of Robotaxi service’s safety drivers

Tesla watchers are speculating that the implementation of in-camera data sharing could be a step towards the removal of the Robotaxi service’s safety drivers.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla appears to be preparing for the eventual removal of its Robotaxi service’s safety drivers. 

This was hinted at in a recent de-compile of the Robotaxi App’s version 25.11.5, which was shared on social media platform X. 

In-cabin analytics

As per Tesla software tracker @Tesla_App_iOS, the latest update to the Robotaxi app featured several improvements. These include Live Screen Sharing, as well as a feature that would allow Tesla to access video and audio inside the vehicle. 

According to the software tracker, a new prompt has been added to the Robotaxi App that requests user consent for enhanced in-cabin data sharing, which comprise Cabin Camera Analytics and Sound Detection Analytics. Once accepted, Tesla would be able to retrieve video and audio data from the Robotaxi’s cabin. 

Video and audio sharing

A screenshot posted by the software tracker on X showed that Cabin Camera Analytics is used to improve the intelligence of features like request support. Tesla has not explained exactly how the feature will be implemented, though this might mean that the in-cabin camera may be used to view and analyze the status of passengers when remote agents are contacted.

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Sound Detection Analytics is expected to be used to improve the intelligence of features like siren recognition. This suggests that Robotaxis will always be actively listening for emergency vehicle sirens to improve how the system responds to them. Tesla, however, also maintained that data collected by Robotaxis will be anonymous. In-cabin data will not be linked to users unless they are needed for a safety event or a support request. 

Tesla watchers are speculating that the implementation of in-camera data sharing could be a step towards the removal of the Robotaxi service’s safety drivers. With Tesla able to access video and audio feeds from Robotaxis, after all, users can get assistance even if they are alone in the driverless vehicle. 

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Investor's Corner

Mizuho keeps Tesla (TSLA) “Outperform” rating but lowers price target

As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected.

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Credit: Tesla China

Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target to $475 from $485, citing potential 2026 EV subsidy cuts in the U.S. and China that could pressure deliveries. The firm maintained its Outperform rating for the electric vehicle maker, however. 

As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected. The U.S. accounted for roughly 37% of Tesla’s third-quarter 2025 sales, while China represented about 34%, making both markets highly sensitive to policy shifts. Potential 50% cuts to Chinese subsidies and reduced U.S. incentives affected the firm’s outlook.

With those pressures factored in, the firm now expects Tesla to deliver 1.75 million vehicles in 2026 and 2 million in 2027, slightly below consensus estimates of 1.82 million and 2.15 million, respectively. The analyst was cautiously optimistic, as near-term pressure from subsidies is there, but the company’s long-term tech roadmap remains very compelling. 

Despite the revised target, Mizuho remained optimistic on Tesla’s long-term technology roadmap. The firm highlighted three major growth drivers into 2027: the broader adoption of Full Self-Driving V14, the expansion of Tesla’s Robotaxi service, and the commercialization of Optimus, the company’s humanoid robot. 

“We are lowering TSLA Ests/PT to $475 with Potential BEV headwinds in 2026E. We believe into 2026E, US (~37% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) EV subsidy cuts and China (34% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) potential 50% EV subsidy cuts could be a headwind to EV deliveries. 

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“We are now estimating TSLA deliveries for 2026/27E at 1.75M/2.00M (slightly below cons. 1.82M/2.15M). We see some LT drivers with FSD v14 adoption for autonomous, robotaxi launches, and humanoid robots into 2027 driving strength,” the analyst noted. 

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Tesla’s Elon Musk posts updated Robotaxi fleet ramp for Austin, TX

Musk posted his update on social media platform X.

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Credit: @AdanGuajardo/X

Elon Musk says Tesla will “roughly double” its supervised Robotaxi fleet in Austin next month as riders report long wait times and limited availability across the pilot program in the Texas city. Musk posted his update on social media platform X.

The move comes as Waymo accelerates its U.S. expansion with its fully driverless freeway service, intensifying competition in autonomous mobility.

Tesla to increase Austin Robotaxi fleet size

Tesla’s Robotaxi service in Austin continues to operate under supervised conditions, requiring a safety monitor in the front seat even as the company seeks regulatory approval to begin testing without human oversight. The current fleet is estimated at about 30 vehicles, StockTwists noted, and Musk’s commitment to doubling that figure follows widespread rider complaints about limited access and “High Service Demand” notifications.

Influencers and early users of the Robotaxi service have observed repeated failures to secure a ride during peak times, highlighting a supply bottleneck in one of Tesla’s most visible autonomy pilots. The expansion aims to provide more consistent availability as the company scales and gathers more real-world driving data, an advantage analysts often cite as a differentiator versus rivals. 

Broader rollout plans

Tesla’s Robotaxi service has so far only been rolled out to Austin and the Bay Area, though reports have indicated that the electric vehicle maker is putting in a lot of effort to expand the service to other cities across the United States. Waymo, the Robotaxi service’s biggest competitor, has ramped its service to areas like the San Francisco Bay Area, Los Angeles, and Phoenix. 

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Analysts continue to highlight Tesla’s long-term autonomy potential due to its global fleet size, vertically integrated design, and immense real-world data. ARK Invest has maintained that Tesla Robotaxis could represent up to 90% of the company’s enterprise value by 2029. BTIG analysts, on the other hand, added that upcoming Full Self-Driving upgrades will enhance reasoning, particularly parking decisions, while Tesla pushes toward expansions in Austin, the Bay Area, and potentially 8 to 10 metro regions by the end of 2025.

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