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Tesla’s nearly 300k Model 3 VIN registrations hint at healthy US demand
Tesla appears to be on track to break the 300k barrier in its Model 3 VIN registrations this quarter, filing more than 74,000 vehicles on January and more than 24,000 cars this month. While these numbers are undoubtedly impressive, the recent batch of VINs registered by the company also hints at something notable — a steady demand for the Model 3 in the United States.
Based on the data gathered by Model 3 VIN registration tracking group @Model3VINs, Tesla had registered more than 44,000 vehicles this quarter for North America, comprised of both AWD and RWD units. This past Saturday alone, Tesla registered a large batch of 13,225 Model 3 VINs, and more than 95% were RWD units designated for the region, where the car has been available since it entered production in mid-2017 (Canada is the first country outside the United States that received the electric sedan). With this in mind, this recent batch of VIN filings hints at more than 12,000 RWD vehicles intended for the US and Canada.
#Tesla registered 13,225 new #Model3 VINs. ~3% estimated to be dual motor. ~6% estimated to be International. Highest VIN is 292118. https://t.co/mh2PsfwYsB
— Model 3 VINs (@Model3VINs) February 16, 2019
Following the fourth quarter’s results, a TSLA bear thesis has emerged claiming that Tesla has exhausted the demand for the Model 3 in the United States. Nevertheless, the most recent registration for North American vehicles suggest that even Tesla’s most affordable Model 3 variant to date — the Mid Range RWD — continues to see some healthy demand in the region. It should also be noted that Tesla still has more than a month to register and produce more Model 3 units for the US. Overall, this all but highlights Elon Musk’s words during the Q4 2018 earnings call, when he stated that Tesla is not facing a demand problem.
“I feel very confident about Model 3 demand. The customer happiness level with the car is incredible, and I think probably the highest of any car in the world right now, I think. And so you can tell like; basically, nobody wants to sell (their) car,” Musk said.
- Tesla has registered more than 40,000 Model 3 VINs for North America so far this first quarter. (Credit: Model3VINs.com)
- Tesla’s Model 3 VIN registrations this Q1 2019 features a combination of AWD and RWD vehicles.(Credit: Model3VINs.com)
Tesla’s Model 3 VIN registrations every quarter.(Credit: Model3VINs.com)
Granted, VIN filings do not directly correspond with Tesla’s actual production numbers, but the registrations themselves have been quite effective at estimating the company’s manufacturing trends every quarter, as seen in the increasing accuracy of Bloomberg‘s Model 3 VIN tracker.
While the Model 3 is already making waves in the United States (and seems poised to do the same for Europe and China), it should be noted that Tesla is not starting its attack on the lower end of the market yet. For Tesla to compete in this segment, the company would have to successfully produce the elusive base Model 3, which is priced at $35,000 before incentives and savings. So far, Tesla appears to be taking steps towards the production of the vehicle, with the Mid Range Model 3 RWD now priced at a reasonable $42,900. With this in mind, it could only be a matter of time before the company starts making its most disruptive Model 3 yet.
News
Lemonade launches Tesla FSD insurance program in Oregon
The program was announced by Lemonade co-founder Shai Wininger on social media platform X.
Tesla drivers in Oregon can now receive significant insurance discounts when using FSD, following the launch of Lemonade’s new Autonomous Car insurance program.
The program was announced by Lemonade co-founder Shai Wininger on social media platform X.
Lemonade launches FSD-based insurance in Oregon
In a post on X, Wininger confirmed that Lemondade’s Autonomous Car insurance product for Tesla is now live in Oregon. The program allows eligible Tesla owners to receive roughly 50% off insurance costs for every mile driven using Tesla’s FSD system.
“And… we’re ON. @Lemonade_Inc’s Autonomous Car for @Tesla FSD is now live in Oregon. Tesla drivers in Oregon can now get ~50% off their Tesla FSD-driven miles + the best car insurance experience in the US, bar none,” Wininger wrote in his post.
As per Lemonade on its official website, the program is built on Tesla’s safety data, which indicates that miles driven using FSD are approximately twice as safe as those driven manually. As a result, Lemonade prices those miles at a lower rate. The insurer noted that as FSD continues to improve, associated discounts could increase over time.
How Lemonade tracks FSD miles
Lemonade’s FSD discount works through a direct integration with Tesla vehicles, enabled only with a driver’s explicit permission. Once connected, the system distinguishes between miles driven manually and those driven using FSD, applying the discount automatically to qualifying miles.
There is no minimum FSD usage requirement. Drivers who use FSD occasionally still receive discounted rates for those miles, while non-FSD miles are billed at competitive standard rates. Lemonade also emphasized that coverage and claims handling remain unchanged regardless of whether a vehicle is operating under manual control or FSD at the time of an incident.
The program is currently available only to Teslas equipped with Hardware 4 or newer, running firmware version 2025.44.25.5 or later. Lemonade also allows policyholders to bundle Tesla insurance with renters, homeowners, pet, or life insurance policies for additional savings.
News
Tesla exec: Preparations underway but no firm timeline yet for FSD rollout in China
The information was related by Tesla China Vice President Grace Tao in a comment to local media.
Tesla has not set a specific launch date for Full Self-Driving in China, despite the company’s ongoing preparations for a local FSD rollout.
The information was related by Tesla China Vice President Grace Tao in a comment to local media.
Tesla China prepares FSD infrastructure
Speaking in a recent media interview, the executive confirmed that Tesla has established a local training center in China to support the full adaptation of FSD to domestic driving conditions, as noted in a report from Sina News. However, she also noted that the company does not have a specific date when FSD will officially roll out in China.
“We have set up a local training center in China specifically to handle this adaptation,” Tao said. “Once officially released, it will demonstrate a level of performance that is no less than, and may even surpass, that of local drivers.”
Tao also emphasized the rapid accumulation of data by Tesla’s FSD system, with the executive highlighting that Full Self-Driving has now accumulated more than 7.5 billion miles of real-world driving data worldwide.
Possible 2026 rollout
The Tesla executive’s comments come amidst Elon Musk’s previous comments suggesting that regulatory approval in China could arrive sometime this 2026. During Tesla’s annual shareholder meeting in November 2025, Musk clarified that FSD had only received “partial approval” in China, though full authorization could potentially arrive around February or March 2026.
Musk reiterated that timeline at the World Economic Forum in Davos, when he stated that FSD approval in China could come as early as February.
Tesla’s latest FSD software, version 14, is already being tested in more advanced deployments in the United States. The company has also started the rollout of its fully unsupervised Robotaxis in Austin, Texas, which no longer feature safety monitors.
News
Tesla Semi lines up for $165M in California incentives ahead of mass production
The update was initially reported by The Los Angeles Times.
Tesla is reportedly positioned to receive roughly $165 million in California clean-truck incentives for its Semi.
The update was initially reported by The Los Angeles Times.
As per the Times, the Tesla Semi’s funding will come from California’s Hybrid and Zero-Emission Truck and Bus Incentive Project (HVIP), which was designed to accelerate the adoption of cleaner medium- and heavy-duty vehicles. Since its launch in 2009, the HVIP has distributed more than $1.6 billion to support zero-emission trucks and buses across the state.
In recent funding rounds, nearly 1,000 HVIP vouchers were provisionally reserved for the Tesla Semi, giving Tesla a far larger share of available funding than any other automaker. An analysis by the Times found that even after revisions to public data, Tesla still accounts for about $165 million in incentives. The next-largest recipient, Canadian bus manufacturer New Flyer, received roughly $68 million.
This is quite unsurprising, however, considering that the Tesla Semi does not have a lot of competition in the zero-emissions trucking segment.
To qualify for HVIP funding, vehicles must be approved by the California Air Resources Board and listed in the program catalog, as noted in an electrive report. When the Tesla Semi voucher applications were submitted, public certification records only showed eligibility for the 2024 model year, with later model years not yet listed.
State officials have stated that certification details often involve confidential business information and that funding will only be paid once vehicles are fully approved and delivered. Still, the first-come, first-served nature of HVIP means large voucher reservations can effectively crowd out competing electric trucks. Incentive amounts for the Semi reportedly ranged from about $84,000 to as much as $351,000 per vehicle after data adjustments.
Unveiled in 2017, the Tesla Semi has seen limited deliveries so far, though CEO Elon Musk has recently reiterated that the Class 8 all-electric truck will enter mass production this year.

