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Tesla’s nearly 300k Model 3 VIN registrations hint at healthy US demand

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Tesla appears to be on track to break the 300k barrier in its Model 3 VIN registrations this quarter, filing more than 74,000 vehicles on January and more than 24,000 cars this month. While these numbers are undoubtedly impressive, the recent batch of VINs registered by the company also hints at something notable — a steady demand for the Model 3 in the United States.

Based on the data gathered by Model 3 VIN registration tracking group @Model3VINs, Tesla had registered more than 44,000 vehicles this quarter for North America, comprised of both AWD and RWD units. This past Saturday alone, Tesla registered a large batch of 13,225 Model 3 VINs, and more than 95% were RWD units designated for the region, where the car has been available since it entered production in mid-2017 (Canada is the first country outside the United States that received the electric sedan). With this in mind, this recent batch of VIN filings hints at more than 12,000 RWD vehicles intended for the US and Canada. 

Following the fourth quarter’s results, a TSLA bear thesis has emerged claiming that Tesla has exhausted the demand for the Model 3 in the United States. Nevertheless, the most recent registration for North American vehicles suggest that even Tesla’s most affordable Model 3 variant to date — the Mid Range RWD — continues to see some healthy demand in the region. It should also be noted that Tesla still has more than a month to register and produce more Model 3 units for the US. Overall, this all but highlights Elon Musk’s words during the Q4 2018 earnings call, when he stated that Tesla is not facing a demand problem.

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“I feel very confident about Model 3 demand. The customer happiness level with the car is incredible, and I think probably the highest of any car in the world right now, I think. And so you can tell like; basically, nobody wants to sell (their) car,” Musk said.

Tesla’s Model 3 VIN registrations every quarter.(Credit: Model3VINs.com)

Granted, VIN filings do not directly correspond with Tesla’s actual production numbers, but the registrations themselves have been quite effective at estimating the company’s manufacturing trends every quarter, as seen in the increasing accuracy of Bloomberg‘s Model 3 VIN tracker.

While the Model 3 is already making waves in the United States (and seems poised to do the same for Europe and China), it should be noted that Tesla is not starting its attack on the lower end of the market yet. For Tesla to compete in this segment, the company would have to successfully produce the elusive base Model 3, which is priced at $35,000 before incentives and savings. So far, Tesla appears to be taking steps towards the production of the vehicle, with the Mid Range Model 3 RWD now priced at a reasonable $42,900. With this in mind, it could only be a matter of time before the company starts making its most disruptive Model 3 yet. 

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Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Tesla Service just made a simple change for iOS users that makes a big difference

The Live Activities will now provide owners with a quick view of the service status on their vehicle, including the expected arrival time of the repair technician, the actual arrival time, and the estimated completion time.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla has improved the transparency and communication it has with customers when their vehicles are being serviced with a very simple addition to its app.

The addition will only impact iOS users as it utilizes Apple’s Live Activities feature, which is utilized for other Tesla features, most notably during Supercharging to alert owners of their state of charge, charging rate, session cost, and time remaining.

Now, Tesla is using the Live Activities feature of iOS to alert customers of the status of a repair through Service, something that definitely improves the overall interaction between the owner and the company.

The Live Activities will now provide owners with a quick view of the service status on their vehicle, including the expected arrival time of the repair technician, the actual arrival time, and the estimated completion time.

Credit: @robkten | X

It also uses Apple’s Dynamic Island for an even more streamlined look at repair status.

The change was first noticed by Not a Tesla App. Some owners have said that the change has been available for about two months, but we had also not noticed it until now.

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Tesla has been working to improve its Service division, especially over the past few months, as Raj Jegannathan, Vice President of IT/AI-Infra, Apps, Infosec, and Vehicle Service Operations, has revealed the company is working to make things easier for owners.

It is no secret that getting in touch with Tesla Service is easier said than done. In fact, CEO Elon Musk has even had to step up on X to get some issues resolved.

Elon Musk is stepping up for Tesla Service in a big way

But Tesla has done a good job of confronting the shortcomings, especially when it comes to communication between the Service Center and owners.

It started a pilot program at select service locations that shared local and regional leader contact information so customers could reach out if they had an issue with diagnostic, warranty, or estimate issues.

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Tesla also enabled an extended in-app messaging option, which gives owners 24 hours to contact Service regarding any complaints they might have. Previously, the messaging option was only available for two hours.

The small change made to utilize Live Updates gives Tesla owners the opportunity to peek at their Service status without being overly communicative and pestering employees. It’s a small change, but it’s a good one.

Unfortunately, it is not available for Android users quite yet.

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Tesla job postings seem to show next surprise market entry

The company has several job postings for various roles, including Associate Sales Manager, Advisors in Sales and Delivery, and Service Technicians.

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Credit: Felipe Marambio | LinkedIn

Tesla’s recent job postings on its Careers website seem to show its next market entry, and it is a bit of a surprise.

Moving forward, Tesla is basically looking to expand its footprint wherever possible. It has already made a major splash in various global markets, and it has managed to make its way to several regions where things were more difficult and delayed.

Most notably, this includes India, where Tesla just recently started operations.

However, the company is now looking to expand in the Western Hemisphere, and recent job postings from Tesla show that it has its eyes set on a new South American market: Colombia.

The company has several job postings for various roles, including Associate Sales Manager, Advisors in Sales and Delivery, and Service Technicians.

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The locations include Medellin and Bogota, two of Colombia’s most populated and important regions.

Tesla’s presence in South America is extremely limited, and if it decides to launch in Colombia in the coming weeks, it will only be the second country on the continent where the company has a dedicated presence.

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Tesla has only two Supercharger locations in all of South America, both in Chile, and both are located near Santiago, a major city situated in the center of the country. One major thing Tesla will need to do after launching in more countries across South America is to establish a more dedicated charging presence.

Tesla Superchargers follow Model 3 and Model Y to South American country

It is surprising Tesla has not tried to enter Argentina or Brazil, but demand has to be there, and South America is not necessarily a hotbed for electric vehicles.

However, last year saw significant growth in the market for EV demand, with a 187 percent increase year over year, led by Brazil and Uruguay. These statistics come from Bloomberg.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla Q3 deliveries could exceed expectations: Wolfe Research

“Q3 is poised to be a strong quarter,” the firm noted.

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Credit: Tesla China

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) could deliver a stronger-than-expected third quarter, as per Wolfe Research, which stated that the EV maker’s vehicle deliveries could reach between 465,000 and 470,000 units this Q3 2025. 

Such results would represent a 22% increase from Q2, topping consensus estimates of 445,000. “Q3 is poised to be a strong quarter,” the firm noted.

U.S. and China demand

In the U.S., Wolfe attributed part of the volume lift to consumers accelerating purchases ahead of the expiration of a $7,500 federal EV tax credit. The firm is also optimistic about China’s deliveries, which the firm noted is trending above prior expectations. Wolfe estimated 165,000–170,000 deliveries in China for the third quarter, or about 10,000 more than its earlier forecast, as noted n a Yahoo Finance report.

The firm noted that these figures do not yet include meaningful contributions from the newly launched Model Y L. “We estimate 165-170k deliveries in Q3, or ~10k above our prior est,” Wolfe stated, though these volumes “largely do not reflect the recent launch of the Model Y L.”

Earnings outlook

Wolfe noted that it expects Tesla’s Q3 earnings per share to fall between $0.55 and $0.60, which is above the current consensus of $0.49 per share. The firm forecasts automotive gross margins, excluding regulatory credits, of about 16.5% to 17%. 

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Looking ahead, Wolfe warned that Q4 could prove more challenging due to U.S. demand being pulled forward by tax incentives. Still, Wolfe suggested that factors like stronger seasonal demand in China and Europe could become tailwinds that could help the company’s volumes in the fourth quarter. The ramp and rollout of the Model Y L and upcoming affordable models could also help bolster the company’s Q4 volumes.

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