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Tesla top 5: Week in review, February 4
Tesla Model S real-world safety demonstrated after violent rear-end collision
A Reddit user recently posted photos of a Tesla Model S that had a rear-end collision with a Volvo truck. The post concurred with an Insurance Institute of Highway Safety crash test result for the Tesla Model S in which it earned only an “acceptable” rating on its rear crash test. To look at the Reddit photo, one might think that the Tesla Model S does quite well. With a curb weight of 4,647 pounds, the Model S has mass that helped it stand up to a 10-ton truck. The 1,200-lb. flat battery pack strapped to the frame likely was a positive factor, as it reinforces the structural integrity of the vehicle. The Reddit post’s author reported that the driver of the Model S walked away from the collision safe and believes the Tesla saved his life.
Welcome to Tesla, Inc.: We’re more than just electric cars
Tesla announced a corporate name change this week from “Tesla Motors” to “Tesla.” At the time of the company’s founding, the company was positioned as an alternative automobile company. Now, over a decade later, much has changed. With the revised moniker, Tesla confers a broader range of products and services, so that its market reach is much more extensive. Whether it is solar roof tiles, residential and commercial battery systems, or future endeavors such as semi-trucks, electric buses, ride sharing, and tunnel boring, the name Tesla speaks to the company’s overarching goals of clean energy efforts. Musk has repeated how his company will “create stunning solar roofs with seamlessly integrated battery storage, expand the electric vehicle product line to address all major segments, develop a self-driving capability that is 10X safer than manual via massive fleet learning, [and] enable your car to make money for you when you aren’t using it.” The name change now represents that social justice sustainability mission.
Tesla will release 4Q and ’16 full year financial result on February 22
Tesla has announced that on February 22, 2017, it will release Q4 2016 and full year 2016 financial results. First, Tesla will issue a brief advisory, which will include a link to the Q4 as well as a full year 2016 update letter. Each will be posted on the Tesla IR website. To accompany those data releases, the Tesla management will hold a live question and answer webcast that day, scheduled at this writing for 2:30 p.m. Pacific Time (5:30pm Eastern Time). Topics will include the company’s 2016 financial and business results and 2017+ outlook.
Tesla Model S crash test result misses top safety rating by IIHS
The Tesla Model S large luxury sedan earned good ratings in all Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS) “crashworthiness evaluations” except one: the challenging small overlap front crash test. In that evaluation, it earned just an acceptable rating. Even through Tesla had lengthened the side curtain airbags to improve small Model S overlap protection, it confronted testing issues when the safety belt allowed the dummy’s torso to move too far forward. The results indicated that duplicated real-world injuries would be “possible.” The ratings for the Model S apply to 2016 and 2017 cars built after October 2016. Tesla did make a production change on Jan. 23, 2017 to address the head-contact problem, so IIHS has said they will test the updated vehicle for small overlap protection.
Tesla Gigafactory in Lithuania reimagined within Minecraft game
Tesla’s mission to accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy requires production of lithium ion batteries to power their electric vehicles. The Tesla Gigafactory in Nevada began construction on November 4, 2014 and is expected to begin battery cell production by the end of this year. Even before that target production goal, however, Tesla is surveying European locations for a second Gigafactory. Lithuania would like to be chosen as that illustrious manufacturing site, so, to persuade Tesla it is the right fit, a team of Minecraft designers spent two days building a virtual model of Tesla’s Gigafactory. They envisioned Kruonis, Lithuania as the ideal spot for construction due to its “free economic zone, close to two international airports, within close radius of 1.3 million inhabitants.” Sustainable energy sources such as wind power were noted as a perk. Teams from several other European nations are also pitching their concepts to Tesla in the hopes that the next Gigafactory, with its associated job creation, will be in their neighborhoods.
Elon Musk
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX has issued an initial statement about Starship Booster 18’s anomaly early Friday. The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX’s initial comment
As per SpaceX in a post on its official account on social media platform X, Booster 18 was undergoing gas system pressure tests when the anomaly happened. Despite the nature of the incident, the company emphasized that no propellant was loaded, no engines were installed, and personnel were kept at a safe distance from the booster, resulting in zero injuries.
“Booster 18 suffered an anomaly during gas system pressure testing that we were conducting in advance of structural proof testing. No propellant was on the vehicle, and engines were not yet installed. The teams need time to investigate before we are confident of the cause. No one was injured as we maintain a safe distance for personnel during this type of testing. The site remains clear and we are working plans to safely reenter the site,” SpaceX wrote in its post on X.
Incident and aftermath
Livestream footage from LabPadre showed Booster 18’s lower half crumpling around the liquid oxygen tank area at approximately 4:04 a.m. CT. Subsequent images posted by on-site observers revealed extensive deformation across the booster’s lower structure. Needless to say, spaceflight observers have noted that Booster 18 would likely be a complete loss due to its anomaly.
Booster 18 had rolled out only a day earlier and was one of the first vehicles in the Starship V3 program. The V3 series incorporates structural reinforcements and reliability upgrades intended to prepare Starship for rapid-reuse testing and eventual tower-catch operations. Elon Musk has been optimistic about Starship V3, previously noting on X that the spacecraft might be able to complete initial missions to Mars.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
Elon Musk
SpaceX Starship Version 3 booster crumples in early testing
Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
SpaceX’s new Starship first-stage booster, Booster 18, suffered major damage early Friday during its first round of testing in Starbase, Texas, just one day after rolling out of the factory.
Based on videos of the incident, the lower section of the rocket booster appeared to crumple during a pressurization test. Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
Booster test failure
SpaceX began structural and propellant-system verification tests on Booster 18 Thursday night at the Massey’s Test Site, only a few miles from Starbase’s production facilities, as noted in an Ars Technica report. At 4:04 a.m. CT on Friday, a livestream from LabPadre Space captured the booster’s lower half experiencing a sudden destructive event around its liquid oxygen tank section. Post-incident images, shared on X by @StarshipGazer, showed notable deformation in the booster’s lower structure.
Neither SpaceX nor Elon Musk had commented as of Friday morning, but the vehicle’s condition suggests it is likely a complete loss. This is quite unfortunate, as Booster 18 is already part of the Starship V3 program, which includes design fixes and upgrades intended to improve reliability. While SpaceX maintains a rather rapid Starship production line in Starbase, Booster 18 was generally expected to validate the improvements implemented in the V3 program.
Tight deadlines
SpaceX needs Starship boosters and upper stages to begin demonstrating rapid reuse, tower catches, and early operational Starlink missions over the next two years. More critically, NASA’s Artemis program depends on an on-orbit refueling test in the second half of 2026, a requirement for the vehicle’s expected crewed lunar landing around 2028.
While SpaceX is known for diagnosing failures quickly and returning to testing at unmatched speed, losing the newest-generation booster at the very start of its campaign highlights the immense challenge involved in scaling Starship into a reliable, high-cadence launch system. SpaceX, however, is known for getting things done quickly, so it would not be a surprise if the company manages to figure out what happened to Booster 18 in the near future.
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
