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Tesla Gigafactory Nevada battery cell production line (Photo: Super Factories) Tesla Gigafactory Nevada battery cell production line (Photo: Super Factories)

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Tesla (TSLA) Q2 2020 earnings results: What Wall Street expects

Tesla Gigafactory Nevada battery cell production line (Credit: Super Factories)

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Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is poised to hold its second quarter earnings call tomorrow, July 22, 2020 after the markets close. Stakes are high for the electric car maker, especially since the company is coming off three straight quarters of profitability. If Tesla pulls a rabbit out of the hat tomorrow and posts even a little bit of profit, the company could end up qualifying for potential inclusion into the S&P 500 index. 

Tesla stock has always been polarizing, and this is true for Wall Street analysts as well. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives noted that the electric car maker’s potential S&P 500 inclusion is considered by TSLA bulls as practically inevitable. That being said, Tesla’s past Q2 performance and the ongoing pandemic appears to have encouraged Wall Street to maintain a healthy dose of skepticism towards the company nonetheless. 

Following are Wall Street’s current estimates for Tesla’s Q2 2020 earnings results. 

Revenue

Wall Street currently expects Tesla to announce revenue of $5.146 billion, which is less than the $5.985 billion that the company reported in the first quarter. Estimize, a crowdsourced platform that aggregates estimates from analysts, executives, fund managers, and academics, is a bit more optimistic, with estimates pointing to revenue of $5.443 billion. 

Tesla’s revenue may indeed take a hit during the second quarter, and this is in no small part due to the pandemic, which effectively shut down the company’s main production facility in the United States for several weeks. That being said, Tesla is still doing relatively well compared to legacy automakers, being the only one among US carmakers to post a year over year growth in sales this year so far. 

Earnings per share

While Tesla is carrying a lot of momentum heading into its second quarter earnings call, Wall Street expects the electric car maker to post a loss of $0.14 per share for Q2 2020. Interestingly enough, Estimize actually expects Tesla to post a small profit of $0.19 per share. This is quite an interesting set of events, as Wall Street and the crowdsourced platform’s consensus are usually in line with each other. 

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All eyes will likely be on Tesla’s Q2 2020 EPS tomorrow since it could determine if the company could qualify for the S&P 500 or not. Ives, for his part, has stated that Wedbush is taking a rather positive stance for the company. “While Street numbers are all over the map and looking for red ink this quarter, we are modeling profitability with the 90k delivery number and ongoing cost cutting “getting Musk & Co. away from the red ink. This quarter is another step forward in the Tesla story as Musk & Co. must deliver to match euphoric Street expectations baked into the stock,” he wrote. 

Tesla’s fourth-quarter earnings call is expected to be held on Wednesday, July 22, 2020, at 2:30 p.m. Pacific Time (5:30 p.m. ET). 

Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.

Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Elon Musk

SpaceX just cleared a key FCC hurdle in its fight with Verizon and AT&T

The FCC accepted SpaceX’s bid for Grain’s 800 MHz spectrum, opening review for Starlink Mobile.

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A hand holds a smartphone displaying the Starlink Mobile app interface showing a strong “Connected – Direct to Cell” signal, with a Starlink satellite beaming connectivity signals down to Earth from orbit. The background features the planet’s night side glowing with city lights against the curve of the atmosphere, set above a scenic twilight landscape.

The Federal Communications Commission has formally opened its review of SpaceX’s plan to buy a nationwide block of 800 MHz spectrum from Grain Management, moving Starlink Mobile one step closer to operating as a full U.S. wireless carrier.

In a public notice issued Tuesday, the FCC’s Wireless Telecommunications Bureau said it accepted for filing the applications to transfer control of two Grain license companies, Prism License Co. 1 and Prism License Co. 2, to Starlink Spectrum Holdings, a wholly owned SpaceX subsidiary. The deal covers 546 paired licenses across 3,224 counties, reaching roughly 100% of the U.S. population in all 50 states, Washington, D.C., Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. The proceeding sits under WT Docket No. 26-313.

Acceptance is not approval. It means the applications cleared an initial review and the public comment window is now open. Comments and petitions to deny are due December 1, and oppositions are due December 8. The bureau also said the conditions attached to Grain’s July purchase of the licenses from T-Mobile, which require rapid buildout for terrestrial and direct to device service, would carry over to SpaceX if the transfer is approved.

SpaceX announced the agreement on October 8, saying the new airwaves would let Starlink Mobile’s signal reach phones inside buildings, something its 2 GHz spectrum from EchoStar cannot do as well. The portfolio includes up to 14 MHz of paired spectrum in the 817 to 824 MHz and 862 to 869 MHz bands, which most existing phones already support. Elon Musk called it “the last critical piece of the spectrum puzzle needed for SpaceX to provide complete phone coverage in America.”

According to the filing, SpaceX would hold up to 89 MHz of total spectrum in any given market after the deal closes, including up to 14 MHz below 1 GHz. That is far under the 385 MHz threshold the FCC uses to flag a transaction for closer competitive scrutiny, and well short of the roughly 300 MHz each of AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile holds.

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Tuesday’s notice does not decide how SpaceX can use the spectrum from orbit. A separate application SpaceX filed on October 27 seeking authority to provide supplemental coverage from space on the same frequencies, along with related waiver requests, is still pending before the commission.

The ground network is already taking shape. Last week, SpaceX picked Qualcomm to supply radios, baseband units and software for a nationwide 5G build, with deployment across tens of thousands of U.S. cell sites starting in 2027. The FCC also voted on October 29 to advance a proposal opening another 482 MHz to direct to device service, though AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile hacritive pushed to strip nearly 300 MHz from it. SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell has said service on SpaceX’s own airwaves is targeted for early 2028.

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Cybertruck

Tesla upfitter offers to keep Cybertruck alive

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Credit: Unplugged Performance

A Tesla upfitter has offered to take over Cybertruck lines from the company in a last-ditch effort to save the all-electric pickup from being completely canceled in the middle of 2027.

Unplugged Performance, the Hawthorne, California-based Tesla aftermarket specialist, has publicly offered to take over Cybertruck production from Tesla, funding the effort “through a consortium of investors.”

The proposal comes as Tesla prioritizes its Cybercab Robotaxi program and prepares to wind down Cybertruck assembly at Gigafactory Texas around mid-2027.

Founded in 2013 by Ben Schaffer and located adjacent to Tesla’s Design Studio and SpaceX, Unplugged Performance has become a leading provider of premium upgrades for Tesla vehicles, including extensive Cybertruck packages under its UP INVINCIBLE line.

Through its UP.FIT division, the company has also developed purpose-built police and fleet versions of the Cybertruck, including deliveries to agencies such as the Las Vegas Metropolitan Police Department.

In an X post on Tuesday, Unplugged said:

“An open offer to Tesla: We fully support putting Cybercab first, and we’d be glad to take the Cybertruck line off your hands. We’d fund it with a consortium of investors and run it at no cost to Tesla’s floor space, headcount, or focus. All of that goes to Cybercab. Cybercab gets first call on battery cells too. We’ll wait our turn. Tesla gains incremental profit: a license fee, plus FSD and Robotaxi network revenues on every vehicle built. We’d build the Cybertruck, a three-row CyberSUV, and an unmanned CyberCargo hauler. More autonomous miles, across every surface of this planet and beyond. Worth a conversation?”

The arrangement would free Tesla resources and manufacturing capacity for Cybercab while allowing continued production of the stainless-steel pickup and expanded variants. Unplugged Performance indicated it would wait for battery cells after Cybercab needs are met and would generate ongoing revenue for Tesla through licensing and software/network services on the vehicles it produces.

Following strong initial interest, Unplugged Performance posted a follow-up inviting potential investors and strategic partners to email cyber@unpluggedperformance.com. The company clarified that the outreach is solely to gauge interest and does not constitute an offer to sell securities or acceptance of funds at this stage.

The proposal arrives shortly after Elon Musk indicated that Cybertruck production in Texas would be phased out by roughly the middle of 2027 to expand Cybercab output.

Whether Tesla engages with the offer remains to be seen, but the public overture highlights both the aftermarket specialist’s deep experience with the Cybertruck platform and the growing focus on autonomy within Tesla’s manufacturing plans.

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Elon Musk

Elon Musk says Tesla Cybercab future is ‘obvious to anyone with eyes and a brain’

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Elon Musk said the Tesla Cybercab will perform “a majority of all passenger miles” where it is allowed to operate and that point is “obvious to anyone with eyes and a brain.”

Musk used the point to double down on the company’s decision to ax the cult-favorite Cybertruck, as its production space will be removed and transitioned into additional Cybercab lines. The move has catalyzed a polarizing conversation on whether its right or wrong.

Whatever side you are on — it’s happening.

Regardless, Musk seems to be getting to the point that he is done talking about the choice. At some point, you have to think that this was truly a difficult decision for him and the company as well, and this is not something he took lightly. In fact, he’s probably a little bit disappointed with it, too.

But the point remains that the Cybertruck is gone. Musk’s focus is purely on developing an autonomous platform that the world will utilize for transportation, and he’s telling you that anyone “with eyes and a brain” can see it:

Tesla is betting that all of its passengers in the future will be okay with not owning their own personal cars and will be fine with ride-hailing for the rest of their lives. Every dinner, every errand, every trip to the airport and transportation thereafter, will all be operated by ride-sharing, and in Tesla’s perfect world, it will happen in a Cybercab.

As of now, Cybercab is only active in Austin, but it has been spotted all over the country with a driver behind the wheel in those prototypes. In Austin, the car has no steering wheel or pedals for people to control the vehicle.

The Cybertruck dilemma is one that has truly come across the entire Tesla community and while it seems to be a great idea to keep it because people love it, the business side of things is steering Musk and Tesla in another direction.

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