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Tesla Gigafactory Nevada battery cell production line (Photo: Super Factories) Tesla Gigafactory Nevada battery cell production line (Photo: Super Factories)

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Tesla (TSLA) Q2 2020 earnings results: What Wall Street expects

Tesla Gigafactory Nevada battery cell production line (Credit: Super Factories)

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Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is poised to hold its second quarter earnings call tomorrow, July 22, 2020 after the markets close. Stakes are high for the electric car maker, especially since the company is coming off three straight quarters of profitability. If Tesla pulls a rabbit out of the hat tomorrow and posts even a little bit of profit, the company could end up qualifying for potential inclusion into the S&P 500 index. 

Tesla stock has always been polarizing, and this is true for Wall Street analysts as well. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives noted that the electric car maker’s potential S&P 500 inclusion is considered by TSLA bulls as practically inevitable. That being said, Tesla’s past Q2 performance and the ongoing pandemic appears to have encouraged Wall Street to maintain a healthy dose of skepticism towards the company nonetheless. 

Following are Wall Street’s current estimates for Tesla’s Q2 2020 earnings results. 

Revenue

Wall Street currently expects Tesla to announce revenue of $5.146 billion, which is less than the $5.985 billion that the company reported in the first quarter. Estimize, a crowdsourced platform that aggregates estimates from analysts, executives, fund managers, and academics, is a bit more optimistic, with estimates pointing to revenue of $5.443 billion. 

Tesla’s revenue may indeed take a hit during the second quarter, and this is in no small part due to the pandemic, which effectively shut down the company’s main production facility in the United States for several weeks. That being said, Tesla is still doing relatively well compared to legacy automakers, being the only one among US carmakers to post a year over year growth in sales this year so far. 

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Earnings per share

While Tesla is carrying a lot of momentum heading into its second quarter earnings call, Wall Street expects the electric car maker to post a loss of $0.14 per share for Q2 2020. Interestingly enough, Estimize actually expects Tesla to post a small profit of $0.19 per share. This is quite an interesting set of events, as Wall Street and the crowdsourced platform’s consensus are usually in line with each other. 

All eyes will likely be on Tesla’s Q2 2020 EPS tomorrow since it could determine if the company could qualify for the S&P 500 or not. Ives, for his part, has stated that Wedbush is taking a rather positive stance for the company. “While Street numbers are all over the map and looking for red ink this quarter, we are modeling profitability with the 90k delivery number and ongoing cost cutting “getting Musk & Co. away from the red ink. This quarter is another step forward in the Tesla story as Musk & Co. must deliver to match euphoric Street expectations baked into the stock,” he wrote

Tesla’s fourth-quarter earnings call is expected to be held on Wednesday, July 22, 2020, at 2:30 p.m. Pacific Time (5:30 p.m. ET). 

Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.

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Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Tesla FSD fleet is nearing 7 billion total miles, including 2.5 billion city miles

As can be seen on Tesla’s official FSD webpage, vehicles equipped with the system have now navigated over 6.99 billion miles.

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Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (Supervised) fleet is closing in on almost 7 billion total miles driven, as per data posted by the company on its official FSD webpage. 

These figures hint at the massive scale of data fueling Tesla’s rapid FSD improvements, which have been quite notable as of late.

FSD mileage milestones

As can be seen on Tesla’s official FSD webpage, vehicles equipped with the system have now navigated over 6.99 billion miles. Tesla owner and avid FSD tester Whole Mars Catalog also shared a screenshot indicating that from the nearly 7 billion miles traveled by the FSD fleet, more than 2.5 billion miles were driven inside cities. 

City miles are particularly valuable for complex urban scenarios like unprotected turns, pedestrian interactions, and traffic lights. This is also the difference-maker for FSD, as only complex solutions, such as Waymo’s self-driving taxis, operate similarly on inner-city streets. And even then, incidents such as the San Francisco blackouts have proven challenging for sensor-rich vehicles like Waymos. 

Tesla’s data edge

Tesla has a number of advantages in the autonomous vehicle sector, one of which is the size of its fleet and the number of vehicles training FSD on real-world roads. Tesla’s nearly 7 billion FSD miles then allow the company to roll out updates that make its vehicles behave like they are being driven by experienced drivers, even if they are operating on their own. 

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So notable are Tesla’s improvements to FSD that NVIDIA Director of Robotics Jim Fan, after experiencing FSD v14, noted that the system is the first AI that passes what he described as a “Physical Turing Test.” 

“Despite knowing exactly how robot learning works, I still find it magical watching the steering wheel turn by itself. First it feels surreal, next it becomes routine. Then, like the smartphone, taking it away actively hurts. This is how humanity gets rewired and glued to god-like technologies,” Fan wrote in a post on X. 

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Tesla starts showing how FSD will change lives in Europe

Local officials tested the system on narrow country roads and were impressed by FSD’s smooth, human-like driving, with some calling the service a game-changer for everyday life in areas that are far from urban centers.

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Credit: Grok Imagine

Tesla has launched Europe’s first public shuttle service using Full Self-Driving (Supervised) in the rural Eifelkreis Bitburg-Prüm region of Germany, demonstrating how the technology can restore independence and mobility for people who struggle with limited transport options. 

Local officials tested the system on narrow country roads and were impressed by FSD’s smooth, human-like driving, with some calling the service a game-changer for everyday life in areas that are far from urban centers.

Officials see real impact on rural residents

Arzfeld Mayor Johannes Kuhl and District Administrator Andreas Kruppert personally tested the Tesla shuttle service. This allowed them to see just how well FSD navigated winding lanes and rural roads confidently. Kruppert said, “Autonomous driving sounds like science fiction to many, but we simply see here that it works totally well in rural regions too.” Kuhl, for his part, also noted that FSD “feels like a very experienced driver.”

The pilot complements the area’s “Citizen Bus” program, which provides on-demand rides for elderly residents who can no longer drive themselves. Tesla Europe shared a video of a demonstration of the service, highlighting how FSD gives people their freedom back, even in places where public transport is not as prevalent.

What the Ministry for Economic Affairs and Transport says

Rhineland-Palatinate’s Minister Daniela Schmitt supported the project, praising the collaboration that made this “first of its kind in Europe” possible. As per the ministry, the rural rollout for the service shows FSD’s potential beyond major cities, and it delivers tangible benefits like grocery runs, doctor visits, and social connections for isolated residents. 

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“Reliable and flexible mobility is especially vital in rural areas. With the launch of a shuttle service using self-driving vehicles (FSD supervised) by Tesla in the Eifelkreis Bitburg-Prüm, an innovative pilot project is now getting underway that complements local community bus services. It is the first project of its kind in Europe. 

“The result is a real gain for rural mobility: greater accessibility, more flexibility and tangible benefits for everyday life. A strong signal for innovation, cooperation and future-oriented mobility beyond urban centers,” the ministry wrote in a LinkedIn post

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Tesla China quietly posts Robotaxi-related job listing

Tesla China is currently seeking a Low Voltage Electrical Engineer to work on circuit board design for the company’s autonomous vehicles.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla has posted a new job listing in Shanghai explicitly tied to its Robotaxi program, fueling speculation that the company is preparing to launch its dedicated autonomous ride-hailing service in China. 

As noted in the listing, Tesla China is currently seeking a Low Voltage Electrical Engineer to work on circuit board design for the company’s autonomous vehicles.

Robotaxi-specific role

The listing, which was shared on social media platform X by industry watcher @tslaming, suggested that Tesla China is looking to fill the role urgently. The job listing itself specifically mentions that the person hired for the role will be working on the Low Voltage Hardware team, which would design the circuit boards that would serve as the nervous system of the Robotaxi. 

Key tasks for the role, as indicated in the job listing, include collaboration with PCB layout, firmware, mechanical, program management, and validation teams, among other responsibilities. The role is based in Shanghai.

China Robotaxi launch

China represents a massive potential market for robotaxis, with its dense urban centers and supportive policies in select cities. Tesla has limited permission to roll out FSD in the country, though despite this, its vehicles have been hailed as among the best in the market when it comes to autonomous features. So far, at least, it appears that China supports Tesla’s FSD and Robotaxi rollout.

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This was hinted at in November, when Tesla brought the Cybercab to the 8th China International Import Expo (CIIE) in Shanghai, marking the first time that the autonomous two-seater was brought to the Asia-Pacific region. The vehicle, despite not having a release date in China, received a significant amount of interest among the event’s attendees. 

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