

Investor's Corner
Tesla’s (TSLA) non-inclusion in the S&P 500 may soon be too awkward to continue
After Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) posted its fourth consecutive quarterly profit in the second quarter, speculations were abounding that the electric car maker was on its way to becoming included in the S&P 500. Alas, this was not the case, with the index adding Pool and Etsy instead of Tesla during its last two adjustments.
Considering that the electric car maker produced and delivered a record number of vehicles in the third quarter, expectations are high that the company may post another profit in the third quarter. Wall Street, for its part, expects Tesla to show a GAAP profit of $0.32 per share with $8.2 billion in sales. These expectations are quite optimistic, but they do seem feasible considering the company’s Q3 production and delivery figures.
If Tesla posts its fifth consecutive profitable quarter in Q3 2020, discussions about its potential inclusion into the S&P 500 would likely be rekindled. This is a scenario that could end up being quite awkward for the index. As explained by Wells Fargo analyst Christopher Harvey in a recent research note, if Tesla ends up profitable once more, it would be imperative for the S&P 500 to include the electric car maker. This is partly because Tesla’s non-inclusion in the S&P 500 is already adversely affecting the index’s overall performance.
It should be noted that even the S&P 500 has competition. And unfortunately for the index, it has been lagging behind one of its key competitors, the Russell 1000. The Russell 1000, which includes Tesla, has outperformed the S&P 500 over the past three years. This became even more evident this year, as the Russell 1000 is up 9.1% year-to-date while the S&P 500 is up 7.8%. Tesla, which is up 426% year-to-date and 739% over the past year, has contributed to the Russell 1000’s performance.
“Over the past three years, the Russell 1000 (+45.6%) has outpaced the S&P 500 (+44.6%). Notably, S&P uses a committee for index changes, introducing some subjectivity. On the other hand, R1000 changes involve little subjectivity: every June 30th Russell family rebalances its indices based on market cap,” the Wells Fargo analyst wrote.
In a way, Tesla’s non-inclusion into the S&P 500 has reached a point where it is already a bit odd, as the company is currently ranked as the world’s most valuable automaker. At its current market cap, Tesla would stand as the ninth-largest member of the S&P 500, just behind Walmart and ahead of Johnson & Johnson. Speculations are abounding about why the S&P has largely snubbed the EV maker, with critics arguing that it is due to Tesla’s profits being tied to its sale of regulatory credits. The S&P, for its part, has told Barron’s that it considers many factors when deciding which companies would be included in the index.
Disclosure: I am long TSLA.
Investor's Corner
X clarifies xAI prediction market rumors, hints at future plans
Musk’s AI firm denied rumors of a Kalshi deal but left the door open. Prediction markets + AI could change how we forecast everything.

X dismissed rumors of xAI entering prediction market partnerships. In a recent X post, Elon Musk’s company clarified that xAI had not yet entered formal partnerships in the prediction market.
However, xAI clarification hinted at future exploration in the prediction market, aligning with X’s goal to become an “everything app.” The speculation underscores AI’s potential to reshape predictive analytics.
“Recent speculation about xAI’s involvement in the prediction market space has been circulating. While we’re enthusiastic about the potential of this industry and engaged in various discussions, no formal partnerships have been confirmed to date. Stay tuned!” noted the X team.
X’s statement followed a Tuesday post by Kalshi, hinting at a collaboration with xAI, which was deleted hours later. Kalshi suggested that xAI could leverage AI to analyze X’s news and social media data, enhancing betting decisions on political and economic events.
Bloomberg reported Kalshi aims to use xAI for tailored insights, enabling users to wager on outcomes like Federal Reserve rate changes or elections through derivative contracts.
“There’s deep alignment between prediction markets, social media, and AI. Prediction markets capture what people know — AI scales what people can know,” said Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour. “This is just the beginning of a long collaboration to unlock the full potential of prediction markets.”
The prediction market industry fits X’s vision to evolve into a comprehensive platform, capitalizing on its trend and news leader role. While xAI’s denial quashes immediate partnership claims, its openness to discussions signals potential interest in prediction markets, where AI could amplify real-time insights.
xAI’s cautious stance reflects its focus on strategic AI development while navigating speculative buzz. As X pursues its “everything app” ambition, prediction markets could enhance its ecosystem, blending social media’s pulse with AI-driven analytics. With no partnerships confirmed, xAI’s future moves may yet redefine how users engage with event-based predictions, positioning it at the forefront of AI innovation.
Investor's Corner
Tesla welcomes Chipotle President Jack Hartung to its Board of Directors
Tesla announced the addition of its new director in a post on social media platform X.

Tesla has welcomed Chipotle president Jack Hartung to its Board of Directors. Hartung will officially start his tenure at the electric vehicle maker on June 1, 2025.
Tesla announced the addition of its new director in a post on social media platform X.
Jack Hartung’s Role
With Hartung’s addition, the Tesla Board will now have nine members. It’s been a while since the company added a new director. Prior to Hartung, the last addition to the Tesla Board was Airbnb co-founder Joe Gebbia back in 2022. As noted in a Reuters report, Hartung will serve on the Tesla Board’s audit committee. He will also retire from his position as president and chief strategy officer at Chipotle, and transition into a senior advisor’s role at the restaurant chain, next month.
Hartung has had a long career in the Mexican grill, joining Chipotle in 2002. He held several positions in the company, most recently serving as Chipotle’s President and Chief Strategy Officer. Tesla highlighted Hartung’s accomplishments in a post on its official account on X.
“Over the past 20+ years under Jack’s financial leadership, Chipotle has seen significant growth with over 3,700 restaurants today across the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates. Jack was named ‘CFO of the Year’ by Orange County Business Journal and Best CFO in the restaurant category by Institutional Investor,” Tesla wrote in its post on X.
Tesla Board and Musk
Tesla is a controversial company with a controversial CEO, so it is no surprise that the Board of Directors tend to get flak as well. Two weeks ago, for example, Tesla Board Chair Robyn Denholm slammed The Wall Street Journal for publishing an article alleging that company directors had considered a search for a potential successor to Elon Musk. Denholm herself has also been criticized for offloading her TSLA shares.
More recently, news emerged suggesting that the Tesla Board of Directors had formed a special committee aimed at exploring a new pay package for CEO Elon Musk. The committee is reportedly comprised of Tesla board Chair Robyn Denholm and independent director Kathleen Wilson-Thompson, and they would be exploring alternative compensation methods for Musk’s contributions to the company.
Investor's Corner
Rivian stock rises as analysts boost price targets post Q1 earnings
Rivian impressed with smaller-than-expected losses & strong revenue, pushing analysts to raise price targets.

Rivian stock is gaining traction as Wall Street analysts raise price targets following the electric vehicle (EV) maker’s first-quarter earnings report. Despite a dip after the announcement, optimism surrounds Rivian’s cost control and upcoming lower-priced cars.
Last week, Rivian reported a better-than-expected Q1 gross profit, surpassing Wall Street’s forecasts with adjusted losses of $0.48 per share against expectations of $0.92 per share. The company also reported a revenue of $1.24 billion compared to the $1.01 billion anticipated.
However, the EV automaker cut its 2025 delivery forecast and capital spending due to President Donald Trump’s tariffs. It explained that it is “not immune to the impacts of the global trade and economic environment.” RIVN stock dropped nearly 6% post-earnings, closing at $12.72 per share.
Wall Street remains upbeat about Rivian, citing progress toward launching lower-priced vehicles in 2026 and effective cost management. On Monday, Stifel analyst Stephen Gengaro raised his RIVN price target to $18 from $16, maintaining a “Buy” rating. He highlighted Rivian’s “solid progress” toward key milestones.
Conversely, Bernstein’s Daniel Roeska gave RIVN a “Sell” rating. However, Roeska also lifted his Rivian price target to $7.05 from $6.10, acknowledging “better” Q1 results. He warned that profitability remains distant and hinges on multiple product launches by the decade’s end.
Overall, Wall Street’s average price target for RIVN climbed from $14.18 to $14.31, a modest 13-cent increase reflecting positive sentiment. About one-third of analysts covering Rivian rate it a Buy, compared to the S&P 500’s average Buy-rating ratio of 55%.
On Monday, Rivian stock rose 2.7% to $14.64, slightly trailing the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average, which gained 3.3% and 2.8%, respectively. The uptick may also stem from broader market gains tied to news of a temporary U.S.-China tariff suspension.
As Rivian navigates trade challenges and scales production at its Illinois factory, its Q1 performance and analyst support signal resilience. With lower-priced EVs on the horizon, Rivian’s strategic moves could bolster its position in the competitive EV market, offering investors cautious optimism for long-term growth.
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