Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) could deliver a stronger-than-expected third quarter, as per Wolfe Research, which stated that the EV maker’s vehicle deliveries could reach between 465,000 and 470,000 units this Q3 2025. 

Such results would represent a 22% increase from Q2, topping consensus estimates of 445,000. “Q3 is poised to be a strong quarter,” the firm noted.

U.S. and China demand

In the U.S., Wolfe attributed part of the volume lift to consumers accelerating purchases ahead of the expiration of a $7,500 federal EV tax credit. The firm is also optimistic about China’s deliveries, which the firm noted is trending above prior expectations. Wolfe estimated 165,000–170,000 deliveries in China for the third quarter, or about 10,000 more than its earlier forecast, as noted n a Yahoo Finance report.

The firm noted that these figures do not yet include meaningful contributions from the newly launched Model Y L. “We estimate 165-170k deliveries in Q3, or ~10k above our prior est,” Wolfe stated, though these volumes “largely do not reflect the recent launch of the Model Y L.”

Earnings outlook

Wolfe noted that it expects Tesla’s Q3 earnings per share to fall between $0.55 and $0.60, which is above the current consensus of $0.49 per share. The firm forecasts automotive gross margins, excluding regulatory credits, of about 16.5% to 17%. 

Looking ahead, Wolfe warned that Q4 could prove more challenging due to U.S. demand being pulled forward by tax incentives. Still, Wolfe suggested that factors like stronger seasonal demand in China and Europe could become tailwinds that could help the company’s volumes in the fourth quarter. The ramp and rollout of the Model Y L and upcoming affordable models could also help bolster the company’s Q4 volumes.

Tesla’s sales momentum in China is expected to rise this month, with Deutsche Bank estimating about 72,000 vehicle deliveries for September 2025. 

Deutsche Bank’s estimate represents a 27% increase from August 2025, but is roughly flat compared to the same month last year.

Model Y L launch boosts order flow

Dealer feedback compiled by Deutsche Bank suggests that Tesla China’s new orders in September could reach around 73,000 units, which is roughly up 14% year-over-year, as noted in a CNEV Post report. The increase is attributed in no small part to the Model Y L, a six-seat long-wheelbase variant of the best-selling all-electric crossover that was launched last month. 

Deliveries for the new model began earlier this September, with current orders scheduled for deliveries in November, as per Tesla China’s official website. Analysts also noted that the Model Y L could be a key driver of interest, particularly among larger households looking for vehicles that have higher seating capacity.

Tesla China’s insurance registrations

Tesla’s insurance registrations in China reached 46,950 units in the first three weeks of September 2025, pointing to a steady pace of deliveries for the month. For context, Tesla delivered 57,152 vehicles in August 2025, as per data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA). That figure represents a decrease of about 10% year-on-year, but an increase of over 40% from July 2025’s 40,617 units.

Deutsche Bank’s September projection, if proven accurate, would mark Tesla’s strongest monthly performance since the summer slowdown. China is still critical to Tesla’s overall delivery outlook heading into Q4, and the best-selling Model Y is still expected to play a central role in the company’s sales in the country.

Elon Musk recently addressed his proposed Tesla 2025 CEO Performance Award on X, highlighting that his concerns are about influence, not personal wealth. 

The 2025 CEO Performance Award, worth up to $900 billion in TSLA stock, could make Elon Musk the world’s first trillionaire, provided that he hits incredibly ambitious targets for the electric vehicle maker.

Tesla’s ambitious targets

Musk shared his thoughts in a response to an X post that referenced his compensation package. “It’s not about ‘compensation,’ but about me having enough influence over Tesla to ensure safety if we build millions of robots. 

“If I can just get kicked out in the future by activist shareholder advisory firms who don’t even own Tesla shares themselves, I’m not comfortable with that future,” Musk wrote in his post.

Tesla’s new performance award would grant Musk shares as the company grows from today’s $1.1 trillion valuation to an incredible $8.5 trillion within a decade. At that level, Tesla would become the world’s largest company by valuation by a notable margin, eclipsing today’s top companies such as Apple, Nvidia, and Microsoft.

Massive product goals

Elon Musk’s 2025 CEO Performance Award will not be easy to accomplish. To earn his award, Musk would have to lead Tesla an operating profit of $400 billion anually, a substantial increase from today’s $17 billion annually.

Musk’s influence would grow alongside Tesla’s valuation, with his stake rising from 13% to about 25%. Tesla’s board emphasized in its filing that retaining Musk is fundamental to hitting these milestones.

The package extends beyond financials, as it also ties compensation to milestones in Tesla’s core products and emerging technologies. These include the delivery of 20 million vehicles cumulatively, 10 million active Full Self-Driving subscriptions, and the deployment of 1 million robots, and the rollout of 1 million Robotaxis.