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Tesla Gigafactory Shanghai’s 2021 Model 3 and Model Y production estimates are likely conservative

(Credit: Tesla)

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On its Q4 FY 2020 Update Letter, Tesla listed Gigafactory Shanghai’s annual vehicle production capacity at 450,000 Model 3 and Model Y, up from 250,000 in Q3 2020. This number is undoubtedly impressive, but if one were to look at recent reports and developments at the Shanghai-based site, it would seem that Tesla’s numbers for the facility in 2021 are fairly conservative. 

Data from the China Passenger Vehicle Association shows that 137,459 China-made Model 3 were sold locally last year, allowing it to be one of the country’s most popular electric cars. These numbers helped Tesla reach its goal of delivering half a million vehicles in 2020, an ambitious target considering the effects of the pandemic on the global auto segment. 

It should be noted that 2020 only marked the first year of Model 3 production in Gigafactory Shanghai. Within the year, which included government-mandated shutdowns due to the outbreak of the coronavirus, Tesla was able to ramp the production of the Model 3, while building out and starting the operations in the Model Y plant in the factory’s Phase 2 area. By November, industry insiders told local news agency 36 Krypton that Tesla China would be looking to build 550,000 cars in 2021, comprised of 300,000 Model 3 and 250,000 Model Y. 

These figures, at least based on the Q4 FY 2020 report, are notably higher than Tesla’s own estimates. However, it should be noted that Tesla’s Model Y plant in Gigafactory Shanghai will likely ramp faster than its Model 3 counterpart, partly due to the Model Y employing innovations such as the Giga Press, which makes vehicle production simpler and more cost-effective. Fewer interruptions due to the pandemic are also likely this year, considering China’s stringent anti-COVID policies. 

When reports of Giga Shanghai’s reported 550,000-vehicle production goal was reported, industry insiders cited by local news reports noted that Tesla China has already issued ordering requirements to core component suppliers. This suggests that since the latter part of 2020, Tesla has already been making preparations for its most notable vehicle production ramp to date in Gigafactory Shanghai. This was highlighted in a study from China Industrial Securities, which stated that Giga Shanghai has reached a production capacity of 8,000 vehicles per week.

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During the Q4 FY 2020 earnings call, Eon Musk noted that Tesla is on track to see a growth rate of about 50% every year. Considering the pieces that are in place in the Fremont Factory and Gigafactory Shanghai, as well as the expected deployment of Giga Berlin and Gigafactory Texas later this year, Tesla’s 50% estimate may very well be conservative. 

Don’t hesitate to contact us for news tips. Just send a message to tips@teslarati.com to give us a heads up.

Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Elon Musk

Tesla says it denied Musk CEO replacement report before it was published

Tesla says it responded to the WSJ’s request for comment, denying that it was in search of a new CEO to replace Elon Musk.

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(Credit: Tesla)

Tesla said that it denied seeking a replacement for CEO Elon Musk before a report was published claiming the company was considering a new frontman.

Last night, The Wall Street Journal reported that Tesla’s Board of Directors was looking for Musk’s replacement after he had devoted too much time to his role within the government. The publication revised its headline to the report no fewer than five times, initially stating the company was still seeking a replacement.

By the time the headline revisions were complete, it had outlined that Tesla had looked for a replacement a month ago, but had stopped its search following Musk’s commitment to Tesla during the company’s earnings call last month.

Shortly after the report surfaced, Board of Directors chairwoman Robyn Denholm officially issued a statement on behalf of Tesla:

“Earlier today, there was a media report erroneously claiming that the Tesla Board had contacted recruitment firms to initiate a CEO search at the company. This is absolutely false (and this was communicated to the media before the report was published). The CEO of Tesla is Elon Musk and the Board is highly confident in his ability to continue executing on the exciting growth plan ahead.  – Robyn Denholm.”

Tesla Board Chair slams Wall Street Journal over alleged CEO search report

Interestingly, Denholm’s statement indicates it had responded to a request for comment from the Wall Street Journal before the report was published. This is especially interesting because Tesla does not typically respond to media outreach, as it dissolved its media department several years ago.

Tesla typically makes its statements publicly on X.

Musk also responded to the report, indicating that the WSJ had committed an “extremely bad breach of ethics” by publishing a “deliberately false article” that did not include Tesla’s “unequivocal denial beforehand.”

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Robotaxis are already making roads safer, Waymo report reveals

Waymo Driver is already reducing severe crashes and enhancing the safety of vulnerable road users.

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Waymo hires former Tesla Executive 
(Credit: Waymo)

Industry leaders such as Elon Musk have always maintained that autonomous robotaxis will make roads safer. A recent blog post from Waymo about the safety of its self-driving cars suggests that Musk’s sentiments are on point.

Way More Safety

Waymo Driver is already reducing severe crashes and enhancing the safety of vulnerable road users. As per a new research paper set for publication in the Traffic Injury Prevention Journal, Waymo Driver had outperformed human drivers in safety, particularly for vulnerable road users (VRUs).

Over 56.7 million miles, compared to human drivers, Waymo Driver achieved a 92% reduction in pedestrian injury crashes. It also saw 82% fewer crashes with injuries with cyclists and 82% fewer crashes with injuries with motorcyclists. Waymo Driver also slashed injury-involving intersection crashes by 96%, which are a leading cause of severe road harm for human drivers. Waymo Driver saw 85% fewer crashes with suspected serious or worse injuries as well.

What They Are Saying

Mauricio Peña, Waymo’s Chief Safety Officer, was optimistic about Waymo Driver’s results so far. “It’s exciting to see the real positive impact that Waymo is making on the streets of America as we continue to expand. This research reinforces the growing evidence that the Waymo Driver is playing a crucial role in reducing serious crashes and protecting all road users,” the Chief Safety Officer noted.

Jonathan Adkins, Chief Executive Officer at Governors Highway Safety Association, also noted that Waymo’s results are very encouraging. “It’s encouraging to see real-world data showing Waymo outperforming human drivers when it comes to safety. Fewer crashes and fewer injuries — especially for people walking and biking — is exactly the kind of progress we want to see from autonomous vehicles,” Adkins stated.

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Tesla hints at June 1 launch of Robotaxi platform in Austin

Tesla has hinted at a potential launch date for the Robotaxi service in Austin, Texas.

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tesla robotaxi app on phone
Credit: Tesla

Tesla just dropped its biggest hint yet about the potential launch date of its Robotaxi ride-hailing platform in Austin, Texas, shedding more light on when to expect it to take off.

In preparation for the ride-hailing service to launch, Tesla has been in talks with the City of Austin for months. It has also spent recent months bolstering its Full Self-Driving suite, aiming for it to handle initially supervised rides with the use of teleoperators to keep things safe and dependable, at least early on.

The company has also said that it expects the Robotaxi service, which will drive passengers in Tesla Model Y vehicles to start, to launch in Austin in June. However, Tesla has not given an exact date.

Now, Tesla is hinting that Robotaxi could launch on June 1, based on a very vague X post it published on May 1:

Of course, this is extremely speculative. However, it’s the first time Tesla has made any suggestions about a potential launch date, so it’s worth taking it seriously.

While the automaker has often missed timelines in the past, most notably the launch of a “feature-complete” Full Self-Driving platform, this is the first time we’ve seen Tesla be so adamant and truly reiterate a target date.

Tesla has not shied away from this June date for the Robotaxi launch yet, something that is worth noting as we move closer to June. All signs point toward Tesla being able to come through on this timeline, and it could be one of its biggest accomplishments yet on the grand scheme of things. The Robotaxi rollout will be controlled and small to start, the company noted on its most recent Earnings Call.

CEO Elon Musk said:

“The team and I are laser-focused on bringing robotaxi to Austin in June. Unsupervised autonomy will first be solved for the Model Y in Austin.”

At first, it also seems as if the first Robotaxi rides will be available to a select group, as Musk said the ability to order one will not be available to the general public until later in the month. He also said the initial fleet will be between 10 and 20 vehicles:

“Yeah. We’re still debating the exact number to start off on day one, but it’s, like, I don’t know, maybe 10 or 20 vehicles on day one. And watch it carefully. They scale it up rapidly after that. So, we want to make sure that you’re paying very close attention the first time this happens. But, yeah, you will be able to — end of end of June or July, just go to Austin and order a Tesla for autonomous drive.”

While the June 1st date of the Robotaxi launch is extremely speculative, Tesla seems convinced that its vehicles could already handle this task. It would be something to see them come through on this date, especially on the first day of the month.

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