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SpaceX’s orbital Starship launch debut may be pushed to 2022 by slow FAA reviews
In a rare sign of material progress, SpaceX and the FAA have finally released what is known as a draft environmental assessment (EA) of the company’s South Texas Starship launch plans.
Set to be the largest and most powerful rocket in spaceflight history when it first begins orbital launches, the process of acquiring permission to launch Starship and its Super Heavy booster out of the wetlands of the South Texas coast was never going to be easy. The Boca Chica site SpaceX ultimately settled on for its first private launch facilities – initially meant for Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy but later dedicated to BFR (now Starship) – is simultaneously surrounded by sensitive coastal habitats populated by several threatened or endangered species and situated mere miles as the crow flies from a city whose temporary population oscillates from a few thousand to tens of thousands.
Reception and analysis of the draft and its timing have been mixed. On one hand, SpaceX’s draft EA – completed with oversight from the FAA and help from the US Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) – gives a number of reasons for optimism. In a sign that SpaceX is taking a pragmatic approach to the inevitable environmental review and launch license approval hurdles standing in front of orbital South Texas Starship launches, the company has actually pursued what is known as a “programmatic environmental assessment” (PEA).
Most importantly, that means that SpaceX’s Starbase PEA – if approved – will be more like a foundation or stepping stone that should make it easier to start small and methodically expand the scope and nature of the company’s plans for Boca Chica. Along those lines, as part of Starbase’s first dedicated environmental assessment, SpaceX has proposed a maximum of 23 flight operations annually while Starship is still in the development phase, including up to 20 suborbital Starship test flights and 3 orbital launches (or Super Heavy hops). Once SpaceX has worked out enough kinks for slightly more confident Starship operations, the company would enter an “operational phase” that would allow for as many as five suborbital Starship launches and five orbital Starship launches, as well as ship and booster landings back on land after all 10 possible launches.
In other words, SpaceX’s initial draft PEA is extremely conservative, requesting permission for what amounts to a bare minimum concept of operations for orbital Starship launches. At a maximum of 3-5 orbital launches per year, a PEA and subsequent launch license approved as-is would likely give SpaceX just enough slack to perform basic Earth orbit launches and no more than one or two orbital refilling tests per year. However, as an example, a five-launch maximum would almost entirely prevent SpaceX from launching Starship to Mars, the Moon, and maybe even high-energy Earth orbits without using all of its annual launch allotments on a single mission.
Perhaps most importantly, the draft PEA as proposed would unequivocally prevent SpaceX from performing the NASA Human Lander System (HLS) Moon landings it received an almost $3 billion contract to complete. Each HLS Starship Moon landing is expected to require anywhere from 10-16 launches to deliver a depot ship, HLS lander, and ~1200 tons of propellant to orbit. However, in terms of SpaceX’s prospects of developing Starship as quickly as possible, that’s actually a good thing. Above all else, SpaceX’s slimmed-down draft PEA should be far easier for the FAA to approve than a PEA pursuing permission for Starship’s ultimate ambitions – dozens to hundreds of launches annually – from the beginning. In theory, with this barebones PEA approved, SpaceX would then be able to build off the foundation with additional environmental assessments – like, for example, of expanding Starship’s maximum launch cadence.
Of course, SpaceX first needs the FAA turn this first draft PEA into a favorable environmental assessment (not a guarantee) before any of the above starts to matter. Based on the content of the draft itself and associated appendixes, SpaceX appears to have a decent shot at receiving a “finding of no significant impact (FONSI)” or “mitigated FONSI” determination. However, SpaceX began the process of creating that draft as far back as mid-2020, followed by an FAA announcement in November 2020. The implication is that the FAA managed to drag out a draft release process that some have estimated should have taken 3-4 months into an arduous 10-15 month ordeal.
Combined with the uphill battle it’s starting to look like SpaceX will have to wage for an orbital Starship launch license in South Texas, it’s looking increasingly likely that Starship, Super Heavy, and Starbase will be technically ready for orbital launch tests well before the FAA is ready to approve or license them. Barring delays, the public now has until mid-October to read and comment on SpaceX’s draft PEA, after which the FAA and SpaceX will review those comments and hopefully turn the draft into a completed review. Even if the FAA were to somehow take just two months to return a best-case FONSI, clearing Starbase of environmental launch hurdles, it’s hard to imagine that the agency could then turn around and approve an orbital Starship launch license – or even a one-off experimental permit – in the last few weeks of 2021.
Ultimately, that means that nothing short of a minor miracle is likely to prevent the FAA’s environmental review and licensing delays from directly delaying Starship’s orbital launch debut. There is at least a chance that Starship, Super Heavy, and Starbase’s orbital launch site wont be ready for orbital launches by the end of the year, but it’s increasingly difficult to imagine that all three won’t be proof tested, qualified, and ready for action just a month or two from now. For the time being, we’ll just have to wait and see where the cards fall.
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Xiaomi CEO congratulates Tesla on first FSD delivery: “We have to continue learning!”
Xiaomi has become one of Tesla’s strongest rivals in China.
Just days after unveiling the Xiaomi YU7, a vehicle that is considered as the Model Y’s strongest competitor yet, Xiaomi CEO Lei Jun gave a nod of respect to Tesla and its Full Self-Driving (FSD) program.
In a post on Weibo, Lei Jun highlighted the remarkable nature of Tesla’s first autonomous delivery. He also acknowledged that Xiaomi still has much to learn in the electric vehicle industry.
Xiaomi CEO’s Nod of Respect
Lei Jun’s comments about Tesla’s FSD delivery were shared as a response to Tesla VP Grace Tao’s post about the recent feat. The Tesla VP shared several key aspects of the delivery, from the fact that there was no driver in the Model Y to the vehicle reaching over 70 mph as it drove to its owner.
“For the first time in history, the vehicle was delivered to the owner by itself. There was no driver or remote control throughout the journey, and the maximum speed reached 115 kilometers per hour, and it arrived safely at the customer’s door. This is a brand new Model Y. Tesla always surpasses imagination with disruptive innovation. A new era, exciting!” Tao wrote in her post.
In his response, the Xiaomi CEO acknowledged Tesla’s incredible feat. “Tesla is indeed amazing, leading the industry trends in many areas, especially FSD. We still have to continue learning!” he wrote.
Xiaomi’s Recent Tesla Competitor
The Xiaomi CEO’s comments show that Tesla’s projects and leadership garner a lot of respect in the global electric vehicle sector. While Tesla and Elon Musk tend to be media punching bags in the United States and Europe, the company and its CEO seem to be taken very seriously in China. This was despite China being the world’s most competitive electric vehicle market.
Xiaomi itself has become one of Tesla’s strongest rivals in China, with its first car, the SU7, bringing the fight to the Tesla Model 3. Its most recent vehicle, the YU7, could very well be the Model Y’s most legitimate rival yet, as it is more affordable, bigger, and more feature-laden than Tesla’s best-selling crossover. The YU7 has garnered quite a lot of attention, with Xiaomi receiving 200,000 firm orders for the vehicle within the first three minutes of its launch.
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Tesla silences FSD critics by posting full video of Model Y delivering itself to customer
When Elon Musk posted that the first Tesla had delivered itself to its owner, critics were quick to question his statement.
It is no secret that Tesla still has ardent critics today, many of whom remain convinced that the company and its leadership are lying about Full Self-Driving (FSD) and its capabilities. It was then no surprise that when Elon Musk announced that the first Tesla had successfully delivered itself to its owner, critics were quick to question the CEO’s statement.
Videos of the all-electric crossover’s solo drive to its owner soon silenced Tesla critics and their claims.
Tesla Posts FSD Video Proof—Twice
While Musk’s post on X about a Tesla delivering itself to a consumer was a notable update, his claims were not accompanied by any video. This was taken by some Tesla critics as a hint that the CEO’s claims were false, and that the feat probably did not happen. Musk, for his part, noted that Tesla would soon be posting a video of the self-driving car’s drive to its owner.
The electric vehicle community did not have to wait very long. Tesla later posted a video of its first autonomous vehicle delivery ever on X, much to the shock of social media users. As could be seen in the video, a Tesla Model Y was able to travel about 30 minutes on its own, from the end of Giga Texas’ production line to the home of its owner, several miles away. Tesla even posted the vehicle’s full 30-minute drive on its official X account later on.
Critics Are Still Skeptical, But It’s Cope at this Point
Of course, Tesla skeptics remained unconvinced that the feat was legitimate, with some pointing out that the Model Y customer seems to have had an X account for years but never posted, at least until his car was delivered. Others also claimed that the whole setup seemed suspicious since the Model Y looked like it had manufacturer plates as it navigated Austin’s streets.
These concerns, however, do not seem like very strong arguments, especially at this point. Based on the evidence, it seems like Tesla really has figured out autonomous driving, and its cars are now able to operate safely on real-world roads on their own. Many have also become silent in their criticisms of Tesla’s FSD feat, especially after the company posted the full video of the Model Y’s autonomous drive. Overall, Tesla critics may remain doubtful about the company and Musk’s claims, but these concerns seem to have become forced at best.
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Ford CEO favors Waymo’s LiDAR approach over Tesla’s vision-only self-driving
Farley stated that Waymo’s LiDAR-based approach made “more sense.”
Ford CEO Jim Farley shared some skepticism about Tesla’s camera-only approach to self-driving during a recent appearance at the Aspen Ideas Festival. When asked to compare Waymo and Tesla’s autonomous driving systems, Farley stated that Waymo’s LiDAR-based approach made “more sense,” citing safety, consumer trust, and the limitations of camera-based models.
Waymo’s LiDAR vs. Tesla’s Vision-Only Approach
Farley was speaking with author Walter Isaacson when he made his comments about Tesla and Waymo’s self-driving systems. As they were conversing about autonomous cars, Isaacson asked Farley which approach to self-driving he preferred.
“To us, Waymo,” Farley said, though he also stated that both Tesla and Waymo have “ made a lot of of progress” on self-driving, as noted in a Fortune report. He also confirmed that he has had conversations about the matter with Tesla CEO Elon Musk. Despite this, he said that Ford still considers LiDAR as a pivotal part of autonomous driving.
“When you have a brand like Ford, when there’s a new technology, you have to be really careful. We really believe that LiDAR is mission critical… Where the camera will be completely blinded, the LiDAR system will see exactly what’s in front of you,” the Ford CEO stated.
Tesla and Ford’s self-driving plans
Tesla recently launched a limited Robotaxi service in Austin, which uses autonomous cars with safety monitors in the front passenger seat. While controversial, Musk has maintained that Tesla’s vision-only approach will ultimately prove safer and more cost-effective in the long term. Tesla seems to be making headway towards this goal, with Musk stating recently that the first Model Y has been delivered autonomously to a customer in Austin.
Ford, for his part, is not pursuing its own fully autonomous, urban-driving system anymore. Instead, the company is focusing on “high-speed, eyes-off” experiences like BlueCruise. Ford does plan to partner with a company that has achieved true autonomous driving in the future, as soon as the technology is available.
Xiaomi CEO congratulates Tesla on first FSD delivery: “We have to continue learning!”
Tesla silences FSD critics by posting full video of Model Y delivering itself to customer
Ford CEO favors Waymo’s LiDAR approach over Tesla’s vision-only self-driving
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