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Tesla heading towards new delivery record in Q4 despite demand concern narrative

Credit: Met God in Wilderness 在曠野遇見神/YouTube

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Tesla is anticipated to report a new delivery record in Q4 at the beginning of January. It remains to be seen if the potential milestone would be enough to reassure investors and analysts, considering the challenges being faced by the company, such as inflation, production headwinds in China, and the rise of legitimate competitors, among others.

In what seems to be a serious effort to reduce excess inventory, Tesla has offered a rare discount of $7,500 and 10,000 miles of free Supercharging to US customers who take delivery of a new Model 3 or Model Y before the end of the year. The strategy is perceived by some Tesla bulls as a way for the EV maker to attract customers this quarter, or at least before the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) restores federal tax credits of up to $7,500 for specific electric vehicles starting January 1.

Tesla’s vehicle deliveries are a closely monitored statistic by TSLA bulls and bears as it provides a notable hint if Tesla can maintain its ambitious expansion goals. As per 16 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, Tesla’s Q4 2022 deliveries could be on track to reach 420,760 vehicles. While this estimate does not include recent analyst projections, it does exceed Tesla’s previous record of 343,830 cars, which were delivered in Q3 2022. 

As the industry’s global leader in electric vehicles, Tesla is well-positioned to benefit from some of the IRA’s incentives for battery cell manufacturing and locally assembled EVs. To achieve its self-imposed goal of increasing deliveries by 50% annually over several years, however, Tesla may have to consider some compromises on its vehicles’ gross margins. This may be the case this quarter, with the company’s discounts for its vehicles. 

Earlier this year, CEO Elon Musk noted that Tesla would aim to produce over 1.5 million vehicles in 2022. Considering that the company has manufactured 929,910 cars in the first three quarters of 2022, it must produce over 570,000 additional vehicles to meet this goal, as per a Bloomberg News report. Tesla would likely not meet Elon Musk’s 1.5 million estimate for this year, but the company’s results would likely still be very impressive. 

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Longtime Tesla bull Ben Kallo from Baird, for his part, recently noted that he expects the company to post deliveries of just 378,262 vehicles for the fourth quarter “to account for the reported slowdown in production and a weakening macro environment.” Despite this cautious stance, Kallo maintained his “Outperform” rating on TSLA stock. “I’m worried about the general economic environment. Do people have the wallets to pay for $60,000 cars? That’s what the market is worried about too,” Kallo noted. 

Don’t hesitate to contact us with news tips. Just send a message to simon@teslarati.com to give us a heads up.

Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Elon Musk

Norway’s $2 trillion sovereign wealth fund votes against Elon Musk’s 2025 performance award

The fund is managed by Norges Bank Investment Management (NBIM), and it holds a 1.14% stake in Tesla valued at about $11.6 billion.

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MINISTÉRIO DAS COMUNICAÇÕES, CC BY 2.0 , via Wikimedia Commons

Norway’s $2 trillion sovereign wealth fund has voted against Elon Musk’s 2025 performance award, which will be ultimately decided at Tesla’s upcoming annual shareholder meeting. 

The fund is managed by Norges Bank Investment Management (NBIM), and it holds a 1.14% stake in Tesla valued at about $11.6 billion.

NBIM’s opposition

NBIM confirmed it had already cast its vote against Musk’s pay package, citing concerns over its total size, dilution, and lack of mitigation of key person risk, as noted in a CNBC report. The fund acknowledged Musk’s leadership of the EV maker, and it stated that it will continue to seek dialogue with Tesla about its concerns. 

“While we appreciate the significant value created under Mr. Musk’s visionary role, we are concerned about the total size of the award, dilution, and lack of mitigation of key person risk- consistent with our views on executive compensation. We will continue to seek constructive dialogue with Tesla on this and other topics,” NBIM noted.

The upcoming Tesla annual shareholder meeting will decide whether Musk should receive his proposed 2025 performance award, which would grant him large stock options over the next decade if Tesla hits several ambitious milestones, such as a market cap of $8.5 trillion. The 2025 performance award will also increase Musk’s stake in Tesla to 25%.

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Elon Musk and NBIM

Elon Musk’s proposed 2025 CEO performance award has proven polarizing, with large investors split on whether the executive should be given a pay package that, if fully completed, would make him a trillionaire. 

Institutional Shareholder Services and Glass Lewis have recommended that shareholders vote against the deal, and initiatives such as the “Take Back Tesla” campaign have rallied investors to oppose the proposed performance award. On the other hand, other large investors such as ARK Invest and the State Board of Administration of Florida (SBA) have urged shareholders to approve the compensation plan. 

Interestingly enough, this is not the first time that Musk and NBIM have found themselves on opposing sides. Last year, NBIM voted against reinstating Musk’s 2018 performance award, which had already been fully accomplished but was rescinded by a Delaware judge.

Later reports shared text messages between Musk and NBIM Chief Executive Nicolai Tangen, who was inviting the CEO to a dinner in Oslo. Musk declined the invitation, writing, “When I ask you for a favor, which I very rarely do, and you decline, then you should not ask me for one until you’ve done something to make amends. Friends are as friends do.”

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Elon Musk

Tesla begins production of new Model Y trim at Giga Berlin

Tesla announced on Monday that its Model Y Standard configuration was officially being built at Giga Berlin, less than one month after the company officially announced the configuration early last month.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla has begun production of the new Model Y trim at Gigafactory Berlin, the company’s production plant in Germany.

Tesla announced on Monday that its Model Y Standard configuration was officially being built at Giga Berlin, less than one month after the company officially announced the configuration early last month.

On October 7, Tesla announced the launch of the Model 3 and Model Y Standard trim levels, its answer to the call for affordable EVs within its lineup and its response to the loss of the $7,500 electric vehicle tax credit.

On October 3, Tesla started production of the vehicles in Germany:

The Standard iteration of the Model Y is void of many of the more premium features that are available in the Rear-Wheel-Drive, All-Wheel-Drive, and Performance trims of the vehicle are equipped with.

A few of the features of the Model Y Standard are:

  • Single Motor configuration
  • No rear touchscreen
  • Textile seats with vegan leather, instead of all vegan leather
  • 320-mile range
  • No glass roof

The launch of the Model Y Standard was truly a move to help Tesla get vehicles into the sub-$40,000 price point, and although many consumers were hoping to see the company get closer to $30,000 with these cars, this is a great starting point.

Deliveries in the United States have already started, and it seems it will be a vehicle that will do one of two things: either push some consumers to finally make the jump to Tesla, or it will give car buyers another reason to buy the Premium trims, as they may feel the lack of features is not a good enough deal.

This is something we saw with the Cybertruck’s Rear-Wheel-Drive configuration, which launched last year and ended up being more of the latter option listed above.

The Tesla Model Y Standard is actually a great deal in Europe

It was only a $10,000 discount from the All-Wheel-Drive Cybertruck, but it also did not have adaptive air suspension, premium interiors, or the powered tonneau cover, which many people felt was too much of a sacrifice.

The Rear-Wheel-Drive Cybertruck was discontinued only a few months later.

It does not seem as if this is the case with the Model Y Standard, which already seems to be an attractive option to some buyers.

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Cybertruck

Tesla begins wide rollout of Full Self-Driving v14 to Cybertruck

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Credit: Weibo (via YYDS on X)

Tesla has officially begun the wide rollout of Full Self-Driving (Supervised) v14 to the Cybertruck about a month after the company started rolling it out to other vehicles in the fleet.

On Monday, Tesla officially started rolling out v14.1.5 to Cybertruck owners, the first FSD v14 rollout for owners of the all-electric pickup.

Owners have been anxiously waiting for Tesla to begin the wide release of v14 to Cybertruck, as the company said it would refine the suite for the vehicle.

Tesla has finally started rolling out to many owners, who are reporting that their Cybertrucks are downloading Software Update 2025.38.8.5, which contains FSD v14.1.5:

Tesla has to be more cautious with rolling out FSD on the Cybertruck than on other vehicles for a few reasons. Initially, the Cybertruck utilizes an all-wheel steering system that turns differently than the S3XY lineup. This creates a challenge for the Tesla AI team as they have to cater to this specific maneuvering change.

Additionally, the Cybertruck is much larger, and the exterior cameras responsible for seeing the vehicle’s surroundings are placed differently than those of the other vehicles.

This requires additional calibration to ensure safety.

The full release notes for Full Self-Driving v14.1.5 are as follows:

  • Added Arrival Options for you to select where FSD should park: in a Parking Lot, on the Street, in a Driveway, in a Parking Garage, or at the Curbside.
  • Added handling to pull over or yield for emergency vehicles (e.g. police cars, fire trucks, ambulances).
  • Added navigation and routing into the vision-based neural network for real-time handling of blocked roads and detours.
  • Added additional Speed Profile to further customize driving style preference.
  • Improved handling for static and dynamic gates.
  • Improved offsetting for road debris (e.g. tires, tree branches, boxes).
  • Improve handling of several scenarios including: unprotected turns, lane changes, vehicle cut-ins, and school buses.
  • Improved FSD’s ability to manage system faults and recover smoothly from degraded operation for enhanced reliability.
  • Added alerting for residue build-up on interior windshield that may impact front camera visibility. If affected, visit Service for cleaning!

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