SpaceX
SpaceX hot-fires Crew Dragon’s Falcon 9 as separate rocket spied in Arizona
A SpaceX Falcon 9 booster has been spotted traveling eastbound through Wilcox, AZ, indicating a shipment from the company’s Hawthorne, CA rocket factory to its McGregor, TX facilities for hot-fire acceptance testing.
Captured by Reddit user codercotton on October 28th, this first stage (S1) is headed to Texas at the same time as SpaceX’s facilities appear to be wrapping up an extended test campaign with the Falcon 9 rocket stages that will launch an uncrewed Crew Dragon on the upgraded spacecraft’s first trip into orbit.
The team at our rocket development facility in McGregor, Texas completed a static fire test last night of the Falcon 9 booster that will launch SpaceX’s first demonstration mission for @NASA’s Commercial Crew Program – one step closer to flying astronauts to the @Space_Station! pic.twitter.com/iDYNoamCvU
— SpaceX (@SpaceX) October 27, 2018
This duo of Falcon 9 appearances highlights an unusual few months of what is often called “core spotting” by close followers of SpaceX. Typically, SpaceX ships and hot-fire tests a Falcon 9 booster every month, give or take roughly two weeks. It’s clear, however, that the imminent start of Crew Dragon launches under NASA’s Commercial Crew Program (CCP) has created some unique requirements with respect to both booster, upper stage, and individual engine testing in Texas.
For example, Falcon 9 B1051 – a new booster assigned to Crew Dragon’s first uncrewed demonstration launch (DM-1) – appears to have been testing in McGregor for the better part of three months, apparently including multiple hot-fire tests of the rocket. Prior to Commercial Crew, a nominal round of acceptance testing in McGregor would be expected to last between two and four weeks between arrival and departure. As such, spending three months or more in McGregor is very unusual, particularly for a brand-new booster like B1051.
B1051’s extended period of testing can likely be traced back to two main factors. At a more technical level, B1051 could be the first Falcon 9 Block 5 booster to have SpaceX’s upgraded COPVs (carbon-overwrapped pressure vessels) – bottles designed to hold helium and nitrogen at pressures around 5000 psi (35 MPa) – fully integrated on both the first and second stages. Perhaps not a major technical hurdle for SpaceX, this milestone is undoubtedly one of NASA’s most myopic and obsessive mountains-out-of-molehills in terms of the intense ‘certification’ burdens dumped on SpaceX over the course of CCP. SpaceX has apparently spent at least 1.5 years systematically designing, testing to destruction, and redesigning an in-house COPV, to the extent that CEO Elon Musk described the updated design as “by far the most advanced pressure vessel ever developed by humanity … It’s nuts.”
- In mid-September, CEO Elon Musk presented an update to BFR in front of Falcon 9 B1054 and at least three other visible boosters. (Eric Ralph)
- SpaceX’s NASA astronauts pose in front of the main Falcon assembly line, September 2018. (SpaceX)
- An October 2018 NASA video included this brief glimpse of SpaceX’s assembly line. (SpaceX)
- Falcon 9 shows off some of its COPVs in a tour of SpaceX’s Hawthorne factory. (SpaceX)
Juggling Falcon 9 tests
Despite the extreme lengths of testing apparently required for the Falcon 9s that will launch Crew Dragon, it can be concluded with some certainty that SpaceX has still managed to fit in normal tests of a number of non-Crew boosters, upper stages, and Merlins. According to the above SpaceX tweet, B1051 is clearly still in Texas and is unlikely to leave for Florida until November (several days are needed to prepare a booster for transport). However, a different booster was spotted heading from California to Texas just this morning.
Further, Falcon 9 booster B1054 – nearly complete and stationed in front of the only real exit route – was spotted in SpaceX’s Hawthorne factory in mid-September, while an unknown first stage was caught departing the factory for Texas roughly two weeks later. Finally, at the same time as the mystery booster was being trucked to Texas, an even more mysterious Falcon 9 – visibly sooty and thus flight-proven – was spotted inside one of SpaceX Hawthorne’s separate refurbishment hangars, with at least three Merlins removed from its octaweb. Perhaps this is somehow related to the Falcon 9 booster (missing four of nine Merlins) headed East on October 28th.
Finally, according to a member of the /r/SpaceX subreddit, a separate Falcon 9 booster apparently arrived at SpaceX’s Vandenberg, CA launch facilities on October 26th, perhaps Falcon 9 B1046.3 preparing to launch for the third time for Spaceflight’s SSO-A rideshare mission, NET November 19.
https://twitter.com/_TomCross_/status/1048483536917823488
As with most things SpaceX, definitive answers are exceedingly rare when it comes to day-to-day operations like Falcon 9 transportation and even official confirmation of the particular boosters involved with any given launch. Understandably, these more esoteric details are probably treated as “need-to-know” only, and while I and many others would love to know, we certainly don’t *need* to know.
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Investor's Corner
SpaceX gets initial stock coverage from Tesla’s biggest bull
Wedbush Securities is initiating stock coverage on SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX), marking the first comments on the company since it went public several weeks ago. Wedbush and its analyst handling coverage, Dan Ives, are widely bullish on fellow Musk company Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA).
Ives wrote his first note initiating coverage of SpaceX shares on Wednesday with a $190 price target and an ‘Outperform’ rating. The firm believes the company is well positioned off of its IPO because of its wide array of projects, including AI compute power and infrastructure, connectivity projects, and launches.
“We view SpaceX as one of the most differentiated assets within the tech market with a strong footprint across its three core markets, with Starlink driving success with connectivity,” Ives wrote, “Starship launches leading to a demand flywheel and increasing deal flow for its Colossus clusters.”
Elon Musk called it Epic: The full story of SpaceX’s Starship Flight 12
Wedbush leans heavily on Starlink, which they say is the “profitability driver given the strength of its recurring revenue base of ~12 million subscribers as of June 5th.” Ives believes Starlink is still in the “early innings” of penetrating the global telecommunications and broadband market, as it only holds less than a 1 percent share. However, this number is sure to increase over time.
It also highlights the importance of Starship, which it says is an “essential layer” of SpaceX’s overall success. SpaceX developing and displaying the ability to reuse rockets is a major cost and reliability advantage “as it reduces the necessary hardware launch costs while generating a feedback loop for future flights to improve their launch flight rate without accelerating capex spend.”
Finally, SpaceX’s recent AI/Compute projects are also very elementary, Ives writes. It is worth mentioning Wedbush said its $190 price target is derived from a valuation forecast that sees the company yielding roughly $2.48 trillion of implied enterprise value.
There are also some factors that Wedbush did not take into account with its initial coverage. The firm wrote in the note:
“We note that there is optional value coming from Starship’s accelerating scale towards sub-$200/kg unit economics, orbital data centers, and enterprise AI monetization as these factors could drive meaningful upside but these face major hurdles, so we do not take that into account with our valuation.”
SpaceX shares are down just over 2 percent today, trading at around $167 at the time of publication.
Elon Musk
Tesla Phone? Not quite, but close: analyst
For years, there have been images and videos across social media platforms that have reminded me of when I was a 15-year-old kid teased by “Xbox 720” videos on YouTube. These videos are of the supposed “Tesla Phone” that Elon Musk was secretly developing in between leading Tesla with its electric cars and SpaceX with its reusable rockets.
Would you buy a Tesla phone ? pic.twitter.com/aaTwvvIJit
— Tesla Owners Silicon Valley (@teslaownersSV) October 6, 2023
Although Musk has put those rumors to bed several times, it was never completely out of the realm that he could get involved in cell phones in some capacity. Think outside the box and more macro-level, though. Instead of reinventing the computer, Musk reinvented connectivity by developing Starlink with SpaceX.
It could be something similar, TD Cowen analyst Gregory Williams said in a note last week, where he hinted SpaceX could be gathering some steam to acquire T-Mobile.
Williams said it would be the “clear choice” for SpaceX if it decided to go through with a network acquisition. He also suggested AT&T.
The move would be possible through selling more of its own stock, which would help SpaceX raise the money to purchase T-Mobile, which would cost roughly $300 billion. It could be one of the moves SpaceX makes post-IPO in terms of an acquisition: it already acquired Cursor AI for $60 billion.
Other analysts, like Dan Ives of Wedbush, believe SpaceX and Tesla will eventually merge into one anyway, and that conglomeration could come as soon as this year, some have said.
The implications of SpaceX purchasing T-Mobile are massive. A combined entity would create a truly ubiquitous network: T-Mobile’s terrestrial 5G towers and Starlink’s growing constellation of Direct-to-Cell satellites. This would essentially eliminate dead zones across the U.S. and potentially globally.
SpaceX would instantly become a full-scale facilities-based carrier with satellite differentiation; a huge advantage. This would pressure AT&T and Verizon heavily.
There are also concerns like a potential reduction in long-term competition, and of course, a deal of that size would face intense scrutiny from government agencies.
The strategic fit is compelling due to the existing Starlink–T-Mobile partnership and complementary technologies (space + terrestrial). It could create a dominant integrated communications player. However, the regulatory, financial, and execution hurdles are enormous — this remains highly speculative with no indication SpaceX is actively pursuing it right now.
Elon Musk
SpaceX’s newest Starmind will make earth data centers obsolete
Elon Musk confirmed Starmind as SpaceX’s AI satellite constellation name, targeting one million orbital compute nodes.
Elon Musk confirmed that Starmind will be the official name of SpaceX’s planned AI satellite constellation, following a trademark filing by xAI that surfaced earlier this week. Starmind is what’s being described to the FCC as a constellation of up to one million AI satellites
It’s worth noting that SpaceX’s Starlink communication satellite and Starmind are built on the same orbital infrastructure concept but serve entirely different purposes. Starlink is a connectivity network, with satellites receiving and relaying data between points on Earth, and functioning as a high-speed internet backbone in space. The satellites themselves do not process or think, and move information from one place to another, the same function a fiber cable performs underground.
SpaceX just forced Verizon, AT&T and T-Mobile to team up for the first time in history
Starmind, on the other hand, is something completely different, and tather than moving data, its satellites would compute data through artificial intelligence and directly in orbit using onboard processors powered by large solar arrays. Where a Starlink satellite is essentially a very fast pipe, a Starmind satellite is a server. The practical implication is that Starmind would allow AI models to run inference, process queries, and generate outputs from space, then beam results down to users anywhere on Earth within milliseconds, and without the data ever needing to travel to a terrestrial data center.
Starship will be able to carry 30 to 50 AI1 satellites per launch, delivering the equivalent of dozens of server racks per flight, with no land acquisition, no power grid approval, and no cooling infrastructure required on the ground.
SpaceX is pursuing this new technology as terrestrial data centers are running into hard limits such as lack of physical space, community opposition, and power and water consumption at a scale that is increasingly difficult to permit. Space has unlimited solar power, natural vacuum cooling, and no zoning boards. Musk said in a June 8 video presentation that he expects space to become the lowest-cost location to deploy AI compute within two to three years. Two AI1 prototypes are scheduled to launch in early 2027, with volume production targeted for the end of that year at a new facility called Gigasat.
The real world applications Starmind enables extend well beyond powering Grok. A constellation of orbiting AI processors could run inference workloads for any paying customer, anywhere on Earth, with latency measured in milliseconds rather than the seconds associated with ground-based cloud routing across continents. Starmind, if it scales as described, would make SpaceX the landlord of AI compute the same way Starlink made it the landlord of satellite internet.



