Investor's Corner
Tesla’s long-term play on batteries gets praise from German auto executive
When Elon Musk proposed his idea of building a Gigafactory to manufacture batteries for Tesla’s electric cars, many were skeptical. The company’s skeptics were quick to jump on the opportunity to criticize the daring venture, and even the MIT Technology Review noted in an April 2014 article that the project might “mostly be a clever negotiating tactic,” since Tesla could not guarantee enough demand for its vehicles to justify the construction of the massive facility (Tesla was only selling around 23,000 cars per year then).
Fast forward to the present, and Tesla’s long-term play on Gigafactory 1 is starting to pay off. The Model 3, an incredibly successful electric sedan that sold over 145,000 units in the SUV and pickup truck-dominated North American market in 2018, is being prepared for an international ramp. Tesla also stands as the most notable electric car maker that produces its own battery cells. Behind these advantages and milestones are Gigafactory 1’s battery production capabilities, which achieved an annualized run rate of 20 GWh last year.
For BMW Deputy Chairman of the Supervisory Board Manfred Schoch, Tesla’s long-term play on electric car batteries was a strategic decision. In a recent interview with German publication Manager Magazin, the BMW executive remarked that Tesla’s high investments for Gigafactory 1 are well-spent. Schoch also praised Elon Musk’s decision to closely collaborate with Panasonic early on to produce batteries at a large scale.
“Tesla controls the entire value chain; they understood electromobility,” the BMW executive said.
Schoch, who also serves as the Chairman of the Munich Works Council and the European Works Council, has decades of experience in the auto industry. Joining BMW in 1980 as a trainee, he later became the automaker’s works council chairman in 1987, where he gained a reputation as a working time expert. During his tenure with BMW, he introduced a wide variety of working time models, even introducing initiatives to make working hours more flexible for the company’s workforce. As such, Schoch is quite familiar with large-scale projects that enhance efficiency in the long-term.
In his recent interview, Schoch ultimately called on BMW’s executives to explore the idea of producing the company’s own battery cells for its upcoming electric cars. Candidly addressing his concerns, Schoch stated that BMW’s board members would probably benefit from working with Elon Musk, especially since the auto industry has developed a tendency to declare some otherwise important ideas as impossible.
“Our board members should finally deal more intensively with this gentleman, who should have been bankrupt by now. In the (auto) industry, too much is complained, and too much is declared impossible,” the BMW executive said.
Schoch’s statements on Tesla comes amidst Germany’s best year for electric vehicle sales yet. During 2018, figures from the German Federal Motor Transport Authority indicated an increase of 43.9% in EV sales. That’s more than 1% of the country’s total new passenger car sales. This increase comes amidst a steep dive in the sale of diesel-powered vehicles in Germany, which saw a decline from 38.8% to 32.3%.
EU Model 3 heading into SF Pier 80. Passed at least 4 other trucks on HW101. #Tesla $TSLA pic.twitter.com/2uI64Lk1Vh
— YunLinSJ (@YunLinSJ) January 8, 2019
Tesla, for its part, is preparing Europe for the arrival of the Model 3. Local reports suggest that Tesla is looking to ship 3,000 Model 3 to the European region starting February. Members of the Tesla community have shared images featuring trucks loaded with the electric sedan heading towards San Francisco’s Pier 80 as well.
Tesla has also begun rolling out dual-charge CCS Superchargers for the European region. When the company announced that the Model 3 would be getting a CCS port, Tesla noted that it would be “retrofitting our existing Superchargers with dual charge cables to enable Model 3, which will come with a CCS Combo 2 charge port, to use the Tesla Supercharger network.” The installation of the new “Model 3 Priority” CCS Superchargers, as well as the retrofitting of the existing network, is expected to continue in the months ahead.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) just got a price target boost from its biggest bear, Gordon Johnson of GLJ Research, who raised his expected trading level to one that is 95 percent lower than its current trading level.
Johnson pushed his Tesla price target from $19.05 to $25.28 on Wednesday, while maintaining the ‘Sell’ rating that has been present on the stock for a long time. GLJ has largely been recognized as the biggest skeptic of Elon Musk’s company, being particularly critical of the automotive side of things.
Tesla has routinely been called out by Johnson for negative delivery growth, what he calls “weakening demand,” and price cuts that have occurred in past years, all pointing to them as desperate measures to sell its cars.
Johnson has also said that Tesla is extremely overvalued and is too reliant on regulatory credits for profitability. Other analysts on the bullish side recognize Tesla as a company that is bigger than just its automotive side.
Many believe it is a leader in autonomous driving, like Dan Ives of Wedbush, who believes Tesla will have a widely successful 2026, especially if it can come through on its targets and schedules for Robotaxi and Cybercab.
Justifying the price target this week, Johnson said that the revised valuation is based on “reality rather than narrative.” Tesla has been noted by other analysts and financial experts as a stock that trades on narrative, something Johnson obviously disagrees with.
Dan Nathan, a notorious skeptic of the stock, turned bullish late last year, recognizing the company’s shares trade on “technicals and sentiment.” He said, “From a trading perspective, it looks very interesting.”
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Johnson has remained very consistent with this sentiment regarding Tesla and his beliefs regarding its true valuation, and has never shied away from putting his true thoughts out there.
Tesla shares closed at $431.40 today, about 95 percent above where Johnson’s new price target lies.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) stock received a price target update from Pierre Ferragu of Wall Street firm New Street Research, citing the company’s growing lead in self-driving and autonomy.
On Tuesday, Ferragu bumped his price target from $520 to $600, stating that the consensus from the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas was that Tesla’s lead in autonomy has been sustained, is growing, and sits at a multiple-year lead over its competitors.
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“The signal from Vegas is loud and clear,” the analyst writes. “The industry isn’t catching up to Tesla; it is actively validating Tesla’s strategy…just with a 12-year lag.”
The note shows that the company’s prowess in vehicle autonomy is being solidified by lagging competitors that claim to have the best method. The only problem is that Tesla’s Vision-based approach, which it adopted back in 2022 with the Model 3 and Model Y initially, has been proven to be more effective than competitors’ approach, which utilizes other technology, such as LiDAR and sensors.
Currently, Tesla shares are sitting at around $433, as the company’s stock price closed at $432.96 on Tuesday afternoon.
Ferragu’s consensus on Tesla shares echoes that of other Wall Street analysts who are bullish on the company’s stock and position within the AI, autonomy, and robotics sector.
Dan Ives of Wedbush wrote in a note in mid-December that he anticipates Tesla having a massive 2026, and could reach a $3 trillion valuation this year, especially with the “AI chapter” taking hold of the narrative at the company.
Ives also said that the big step in the right direction for Tesla will be initiating production of the Cybercab, as well as expanding on the Robotaxi program through the next 12 months:
“…as full-scale volume production begins with the autonomous and robotics roadmap…The company has started to test the all-important Cybercab in Austin over the past few weeks, which is an incremental step towards launching in 2026 with important volume production of Cybercabs starting in April/May, which remains the golden goose in unlocking TSLA’s AI valuation.”
Tesla analyst breaks down delivery report: ‘A step in the right direction’
Tesla has transitioned from an automaker to a full-fledged AI company, and its Robotaxi and Cybercab programs, fueled by the Full Self-Driving suite, are leading the charge moving forward. In 2026, there are major goals the company has outlined. The first is removing Safety Drivers from vehicles in Austin, Texas, one of the areas where it operates a ride-hailing service within the U.S.
Ultimately, Tesla will aim to launch a Level 5 autonomy suite to the public in the coming years.
Investor's Corner
Tesla Q4 delivery numbers are better than they initially look: analyst
The Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner shared his thoughts in a post on his website.
Longtime Tesla analyst and Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner Gene Munster has shared his insights on Tesla’s Q4 2025 deliveries. As per the analyst, Tesla’s numbers are actually better than they first appear.
Munster shared his thoughts in a post on his website.
Normalized December Deliveries
Munster noted that Tesla delivered 418k vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2025, slightly below Street expectations of 420k but above the whisper number of 415k. Tesla’s reported 16% year-over-year decline, compared to +7% in September, is largely distorted by the timing of the tax credit expiration, which pulled forward demand.
“Taking a step back, we believe September deliveries pulled forward approximately 55k units that would have otherwise occurred in December or March. For simplicity, we assume the entire pull-forward impacted the December quarter. Under this assumption, September growth would have been down ~5% absent the 55k pull-forward, a Deepwater estimate tied to the credit’s expiration.
“For December deliveries to have declined ~5% year over year would imply total deliveries of roughly 470k. Subtracting the 55k units pulled into September results in an implied December delivery figure of approximately 415k. The reported 418k suggests that, when normalizing for the tax credit timing, quarter-over-quarter growth has been consistently down ~5%. Importantly, this ~5% decline represents an improvement from the ~13% declines seen in both the March and June 2025 quarters.“
Tesla’s United States market share
Munster also estimated that Q4 as a whole might very well show a notable improvement in Tesla’s market share in the United States.
“Over the past couple of years, based on data from Cox Automotive, Tesla has been losing U.S. EV market share, declining to just under 50%. Based on data for October and November, Cox estimates that total U.S. EV sales were down approximately 35%, compared to Tesla’s just reported down 16% for the full quarter. For the first two months of the quarter, Cox reported Tesla market share of roughly a 65% share, up from under 50% in the September quarter.
“While this data excludes December, the quarter as a whole is likely to show a material improvement in Tesla’s U.S. EV market share.“
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