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Amazon chooses everyone but SpaceX to launch its Starlink competitor
Amazon has announced a series of record-breaking launch contracts that will place a “majority” of its 3,236-satellite Project Kuiper constellation in orbit in the hope of blanketing the Earth with high-quality internet alongside OneWeb, Starlink, Telesat, and others.
Of 68 firm launch contracts and a total of 83 contracts including unexercised options, SpaceX – the world’s most cost-effective, available launch provider – is fully absent. Instead, Amazon, has awarded three batch contracts to United Launch Alliance (ULA), Arianespace, and Blue Origin. Prior to this announcement, Amazon had already purchased two launches of prototype satellites on startup ABL Space’s RS1 rockets and nine operational launches on ULA Atlas V rockets, rounding out what is undoubtedly the most expensive set of commercial launch purchases in spaceflight history.
More likely than not, Amazon is paying a bare minimum of $100 million per launch, though $150-200 million is probably closer to reality. All three of the rockets now scheduled to launch most Kuiper satellites have yet to fly. Arianespace’s Ariane 6 and ULA’s Vulcan Centaur could debut in late 2022, though 2023 is more likely. Blue Origin’s partially reusable New Glenn is unlikely to fly before 2024 or even 2025.
Amazon has now purchased:
- 9 Atlas V launches, each likely costing $150-200 million.
- 12 New Glenn launches, with options for 15 more. Blue Origin says New Glenn will be able to carry 61 satellites per launch. The company has yet to reveal pricing but $100 million per launch is a probable floor.
- 18 Ariane 6 launches carrying 35-40 satellites apiece. As of 2014, the rocket’s most capable variant was expected to cost at least €115 million (~$125 million) per launch.
- 38 Vulcan Centaur launches carrying 45 satellites apiece. ULA wants the cheapest Vulcan variant to cost ~$100 million. Project Kuiper, which likely needs the most expensive Vulcan variant, will probably pay closer to $125-150 million per launch.
All told, assuming Atlas V can launch at least 15-20 satellites apiece, Amazon’s latest contract likely means that the company has secured enough launch capacity to fully launch the first phase of its Project Kuiper constellation without exercising options. Those 77 operational launches will likely cost the company a minimum of $9.5-10 billion before accounting for the cost of Kuiper satellites or payload adapters.
According to NASA’s ELVPerf calculator, which uses official data provided by each company, Vulcan’s heaviest VC6 variant can launch ~27 tons (~60,000 lb) and New Glenn can launch ~35 tons (~77,000 lb) to a low 300-kilometer (~190 mile) insertion orbit. Ariane 6’s most capable ’64’ variant will likely be able to launch about 20 tons (~44,000 lb) to the same orbit, though official info is only available for a circular 500-kilometer orbit. Assuming Project Kuiper launches are not volume constrained, meaning that most of each rocket’s available performance is being taken advantage of, each Kuiper satellite likely weighs no more than 500-600 kilograms (1100-1300 lb).
-->Falcon 9 recently broke an internal payload record with the successful launch of 16.25 tons of Starlink satellites to a similarly low insertion orbit. Including the mass of a payload adapter and deployment mechanism, Falcon 9’s true performance was likely closer to 17-18 tons. Combined with Falcon 9’s cheapest public commercial launch contract (~$50 million), it’s possible that SpaceX’s partially reusable Falcon 9 rockets could have launched 25-30 Kuiper satellites apiece for an average cost of ~$1.7 to $2 million per satellite – around 50-80% cheaper than Kuiper’s likely average.
Those significant savings don’t consider SpaceX’s next-generation Starship launch vehicle, which will likely reach orbit and begin commercial launches at least a year before New Glenn. Starship could feasibly carry 100-150 Kuiper satellites per launch and, if full reusability is achieved, might cost less than Falcon 9 despite offering at least five times the performance.
Per Amazon’s Project Kuiper FCC constellation license, the company will need to launch half of its constellation – 1618 satellites – by July 2026. It’s not actually clear if Arianespace, ULA, and Blue Origin will be able to collectively complete the roughly 36 launches that will require over the next four years. In the last four years, Arianespace’s Ariane 5 and ULA’s Atlas and Delta rockets have collectively launched 38 times. The first Kuiper satellite prototype is scheduled to launch no earlier than late 2022, meaning that operational launches are unlikely to begin before mid-2023.
News
Tesla’s new Holiday perk is timed perfectly to make FSD a household name
Tesla AI4 owners get FSD (Supervised) through Christmas, New Year’s Eve and well into the post-holiday travel season.
Tesla quietly rolled out a free Full Self-Driving (Supervised) trial for roughly 1.5 million HW4 owners in North America who never bought the package, and the timing could very well be genius.
As it turns out, the trial doesn’t end after 30 days. Instead, it expires January 8, 2026, meaning owners get FSD (Supervised) through Christmas, New Year’s Eve and well into the post-holiday travel season. This extended window positions the feature for maximum word-of-mouth exposure.
A clever holiday gift
Tesla watcher Sawyer Merritt first spotted the detail after multiple owners shared screenshots showing the trial expiring on January 8. He confirmed with affected users that none had active FSD subscriptions before the rollout. He also observed that Tesla never called the promotion a “30-day trial,” as the in-car message simply reads “You’re Getting FSD (Supervised) For the Holidays,” which technically runs until after the new year.
The roughly 40-day period covers peak family travel and gatherings, giving owners ample opportunity to showcase the latest FSD V14’s capabilities on highway trips, crowded parking lots and neighborhood drives. With relatives riding along, hands-off highway driving and automatic lane changes could become instant conversation starters.
Rave reviews for FSD V14 highlight demo potential
FSD has been receiving positive reviews from users as of late. Following the release of FSD v14.2.1, numerous owners praised the update for its smoothness and reliability. Tesla owner @LactoseLunatic called it a “huge leap forward from version 14.1.4,” praising extreme smoothness, snappy lane changes and assertive yet safe behavior that allows relaxed monitoring.
-->Another Tesla owner, @DevinOlsenn, drove 600 km without disengagements, noting his wife now defaults to FSD for daily use due to its refined feel. Sawyer Merritt also tested FSD V14.2.1 in snow on unplowed New Hampshire roads, and the system stayed extra cautious without hesitation. Longtime FSD tester Chuck Cook highlighted improved sign recognition in school zones, showing better dynamic awareness. These reports of fewer interventions and a more “sentient” drive could turn family passengers into advocates, fueling subscriptions come January.
Elon Musk
Elon Musk predicts AI and robotics could make work “optional” within 20 years
Speaking on entrepreneur Nikhil Kamath’s podcast, Musk predicted that machines will soon handle most forms of labor, leaving humans to work only if they choose to.
Elon Musk stated that rapid advances in artificial intelligence and robotics could make traditional work unnecessary within two decades.
Speaking on entrepreneur Nikhil Kamath’s podcast, Musk predicted that machines will soon handle most forms of labor, leaving humans to work only if they choose to.
Work as a “hobby”
During the discussion, Musk said the accelerating capability of AI systems and general-purpose robots will eventually cover all essential tasks, making human labor a choice rather than an economic requirement. “In less than 20 years, working will be optional. Working at all will be optional. Like a hobby,” Musk said.
When Kamath asked whether this future is driven by massive productivity growth, Musk agreed, noting that people will still be free to work if they enjoy the routine or the challenge. He compared future employment to home gardening, as it is something people can still do for personal satisfaction even if buying food from a store is far easier.
“Optional” work in the future
Elon Musk acknowledged the boldness of his claim and joked that people might look back in 20 years and say he was wrong. That being said, the CEO noted that such a scenario could even happen sooner than his prediction, at least if one were to consider the pace of the advancements in AI and robotics.
-->“Obviously people can play this back in 20 years and say, ‘Look, Elon made this ridiculous prediction and it’s not true,’ but I think it will turn out to be true, that in less than 20 years, maybe even as little as ten or 15 years, the advancements in AI and robotics will bring us to the point where working is optional,” Musk said.
Elon Musk’s comments echo his previous sentiments at Tesla’s 2025 Annual Shareholder Meeting, where he noted that Optimus could ultimately eliminate poverty. He also noted that robots like Optimus could eventually provide people worldwide with the best medical care.
Elon Musk
Elon Musk reiterates why Tesla will never make an electric motorcycle
Tesla CEO Elon Musk preemptively shut down speculations about a Tesla road bike once more.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk preemptively shut down speculations about a Tesla road bike once more, highlighting that the electric vehicle maker has no plans to enter the electric motorcycle market.
Musk posted his clarification in a post on X.
Musk’s reply to a fun AI video
X user @Moandbhr posted an AI video featuring the Tesla CEO on the social media platform, captioning it with “Mr. Elon Musk Just Revealed the Game-Changing Tesla Motorcycle.” The short clip depicted Musk approaching a sleek, single-wheeled vehicle, stepping onto it, and gliding off into the distance amid cheers. The fun video received a lot of traction on X, gaining 3.1 million views as of writing.
Musk replied to the post, stating that a Tesla motorcycle is not going to happen. “Never happening, as we can’t make motorcycles safe. For Community Notes, my near death experience was on a road bike. Dirt bikes are safe if you ride carefully, as you can’t be smashed by a truck,” Musk wrote in his reply.
Musk’s Past Comments on Two-Wheelers
Musk also detailed his reservations about motorcycles in a December 2019 X post while responding to questions about Tesla’s potential ATV. At the time, he responded positively to an electric ATV, though he also opposed the idea of a Tesla road-going motorcycle. Musk did state that electric dirt bikes might be cool, since they do not operate in areas where large vehicles like Class 8 trucks are present.
-->“Electric dirt bikes would be cool too. We won’t do road bikes, as too dangerous. I was hit by a truck & almost died on one when I was 17,” Musk wrote in his post.
Considering Musk’s comments about dirt bikes, however, perhaps Tesla would eventually offer a road bike as a recreational vehicle. Such a two-wheeler would be a good fit for the Cybertruck, as well as future products like the Robovan, which could be converted into an RV.
Tesla’s new Holiday perk is timed perfectly to make FSD a household name
Elon Musk predicts AI and robotics could make work “optional” within 20 years
