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Which countries and companies are poised to win the electric car race?
Electric cars are on a collision course with the status quo. Oilprice just published an article titled, Electric Vehicles And The 5 Trillion Dollar Market Transition, in which Peter Tertzakian writes, “There is little debate in my mind that big changes are forthcoming… When it comes to oil and autos, big is a word that is not big enough. Transitioning not one, but two of the largest industries in the world simultaneously is unprecedented. Both have multi-trillion-dollar roots” and the stakes are high.
That said, who’s poised to win this epic vehicle electrification race? Which countries and carmakers are best positioned? It turns out that there’s a company trying to figure all this out. Quartz reports that, “AlixPartners, a global business advisory firm, launched a new index this month to track the progress of companies and countries electrifying their vehicle fleets. As a whole, the world is barely off the starting line.” Ladies and gentlemen, start your… ummm, batteries.
Above: AlixPartners’ Marcus Kleinfeld and Jens Haas discuss global changes impacting electric vehicle adoption (Youtube: AlixPartners, LLP)
First, which automaker is leading the electric race towards the future? No surprise here — Tesla is clearly the company that’s all-in on EVs. “Tesla leads the world in devoting its entire lineup to electric vehicles, but… China’s market, split among dozens of EV manufacturers, has also seen several manufacturers make EVs a centerpiece of their lineup… The rest of the field will have to play catch up. Behind Tesla and eight Chinese companies, BMW brings up the rear with 0.7% share of is vehicles as EV in the second quarter of 2017.”
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Above: Electric vehicle share of each automakers volume in Q2 2017 (Chart: Quartz via AlixPartners)
Next, which country is out front on the world’s EV stage? According to AlixPartners, China’s electric cars are really racking up the miles. And, “what ultimately matters [most] is miles. For electric cars to dent emissions and fossil fuel consumption, the cars must displace conventional vehicles. To measure this potential, AlixPartners summed the total electric battery range of all hybrid and EVs sold. It found that China leads the pack with total potential range of 13 million miles for all-electric vehicles, nearly triple the US, its nearest contender.” That said, there’s a big opportunity for automakers that sell their electric cars in China, especially Tesla.
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Above: China sells the most electric range capacity for e-cars in the world (Chart: Quartz via AlixPartners)
Not surprisingly, Tesla is looking to establish a wholly-owned factory in Shanghai in order to take advantage of this fast-growing customer base in the Chinese electric car market. It turns out that China is also the world leader for electric car registrations. In fact, “China seized the lead [from the U.S.] in 2014, and shows no signs of slowing. It is growing at twice the global average rate of 42% per year, according to Fleetcarma, despite being the world’s largest market. Globally, China accounted for 45% of all EV sales last year.”
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Above: China is leading the world in the number of new EV registrations (Chart: Quartz via AlixPartners)
So China is the winning country in the worldwide electric car race, right? Not so fast. “No country has done more (on a per capita basis) than Norway to go electric. In September, all-electric and hybrid vehicles accounted for a record 60% of new car sales, reports the Financial Times (paywall)…. [and] those numbers are still rising fast thanks to generous subsidies and incentive policies. The country is aiming for zero emissions of all new cars by 2025. Even AlixPartners’ analysis which excludes hybrids and EVs with ranges below 311 miles (500 km)—most of the country’s EVs still have less than 400 km range—Norway is leading the way.”
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Above: When analyzing electric vehicles as share of total sold, by country, Norway tops the charts (Chart: Quartz via AlixPartners)
So depending on how you look at it, Norway and China are leading the world (via different metrics) toward an exciting, electric vehicle future. And, although China has a number of fast-growing electric automakers, AlixPartners concludes, “Tesla Inc. is by far the top-ranking manufacturer in the auto-company measures, with sales in the second quarter of 2017 (the most recent quarter measured in the Index) totalling 6.6 million miles’ (10.6 million kilometers’) worth of e-range and with a fleet e-share of 100%.”
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Note: Article originally published on evannex.com, by Matt Pressman
Source: Quartz via AlixPartners
News
Tesla exec: Preparations underway but no firm timeline yet for FSD rollout in China
The information was related by Tesla China Vice President Grace Tao in a comment to local media.
Tesla has not set a specific launch date for Full Self-Driving in China, despite the company’s ongoing preparations for a local FSD rollout.
The information was related by Tesla China Vice President Grace Tao in a comment to local media.
Tesla China prepares FSD infrastructure
Speaking in a recent media interview, the executive confirmed that Tesla has established a local training center in China to support the full adaptation of FSD to domestic driving conditions, as noted in a report from Sina News. However, she also noted that the company does not have a specific date when FSD will officially roll out in China.
“We have set up a local training center in China specifically to handle this adaptation,” Tao said. “Once officially released, it will demonstrate a level of performance that is no less than, and may even surpass, that of local drivers.”
Tao also emphasized the rapid accumulation of data by Tesla’s FSD system, with the executive highlighting that Full Self-Driving has now accumulated more than 7.5 billion miles of real-world driving data worldwide.
Possible 2026 rollout
The Tesla executive’s comments come amidst Elon Musk’s previous comments suggesting that regulatory approval in China could arrive sometime this 2026. During Tesla’s annual shareholder meeting in November 2025, Musk clarified that FSD had only received “partial approval” in China, though full authorization could potentially arrive around February or March 2026.
Musk reiterated that timeline at the World Economic Forum in Davos, when he stated that FSD approval in China could come as early as February.
Tesla’s latest FSD software, version 14, is already being tested in more advanced deployments in the United States. The company has also started the rollout of its fully unsupervised Robotaxis in Austin, Texas, which no longer feature safety monitors.
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Tesla Semi lines up for $165M in California incentives ahead of mass production
The update was initially reported by The Los Angeles Times.
Tesla is reportedly positioned to receive roughly $165 million in California clean-truck incentives for its Semi.
The update was initially reported by The Los Angeles Times.
As per the Times, the Tesla Semi’s funding will come from California’s Hybrid and Zero-Emission Truck and Bus Incentive Project (HVIP), which was designed to accelerate the adoption of cleaner medium- and heavy-duty vehicles. Since its launch in 2009, the HVIP has distributed more than $1.6 billion to support zero-emission trucks and buses across the state.
In recent funding rounds, nearly 1,000 HVIP vouchers were provisionally reserved for the Tesla Semi, giving Tesla a far larger share of available funding than any other automaker. An analysis by the Times found that even after revisions to public data, Tesla still accounts for about $165 million in incentives. The next-largest recipient, Canadian bus manufacturer New Flyer, received roughly $68 million.
This is quite unsurprising, however, considering that the Tesla Semi does not have a lot of competition in the zero-emissions trucking segment.
To qualify for HVIP funding, vehicles must be approved by the California Air Resources Board and listed in the program catalog, as noted in an electrive report. When the Tesla Semi voucher applications were submitted, public certification records only showed eligibility for the 2024 model year, with later model years not yet listed.
State officials have stated that certification details often involve confidential business information and that funding will only be paid once vehicles are fully approved and delivered. Still, the first-come, first-served nature of HVIP means large voucher reservations can effectively crowd out competing electric trucks. Incentive amounts for the Semi reportedly ranged from about $84,000 to as much as $351,000 per vehicle after data adjustments.
Unveiled in 2017, the Tesla Semi has seen limited deliveries so far, though CEO Elon Musk has recently reiterated that the Class 8 all-electric truck will enter mass production this year.
Elon Musk
Tesla reveals major info about the Semi as it heads toward ‘mass production’
Some information, like trim levels and their specs were not revealed by Tesla, but now that the Semi is headed toward mass production this year, the company finally revealed those specifics.
Tesla has revealed some major information about the all-electric Semi as it heads toward “mass production,” according to CEO Elon Musk.
The Semi has been working toward a wider production phase after several years of development, pilot programs, and the construction of a dedicated production facility that is specifically catered to the manufacturing of the vehicle.
However, some information, like trim levels and their specs were not revealed by Tesla, but now that the Semi is headed toward mass production this year, the company finally revealed those specifics.
Tesla Semi undergoes major redesign as dedicated factory preps for deliveries
Tesla plans to build a Standard Range and Long Range Trim level of the Semi, and while the range is noted in the company’s newly-released spec list, there is no indication of what battery size will be equipped by them. However, there is a notable weight difference between the two of roughly 3,000 lbs, and the Long Range configuration has a lightning-fast peak charging speed of 1.2 MW.
This information is not available for the Standard Range quite yet.
The spec list is as follows:
- Standard Range:
- 325 miles of range (at 82,000 lbs gross combination weight
- Curb Weight: <20,000
- Energy Consumption: 1.7 kWh per mile
- Powertrain: 3 independent motors on rear axles
- Charging: Up to 60% of range in 30 minutes
- Charge Type: MCS 3.2
- Drive Power: Up to 800 kW
- ePTO (Electric Power Take Off): Up to 25 kW
- Long Range:
- Range: 500 miles (at 82,000 lbs gross combination weight)
- Curb Weight: 23,000 lbs
- Energy Consumption: 1.7 kWh per mile
- Powertrain: 3 independent motors on rear axles
- Charging: Up to 60% of range in 30 minutes
- Charge Type: MCS 3.2
- Peak charging speed: 1.2MW (1,200kW)
- Drive Power: Up to 800 kW
- ePTO (Electric Power Take Off): Up to 25 kW
It is important to keep in mind that the Semi is currently spec’d for local runs, and Tesla has not yet released or developed a sleeper cabin that would be more suitable for longer trips, cross-country hauls, and overnight travel.
Tesla Semi sleeper section and large side storage teased in new video
Instead, the vehicle will be initially used for regional deliveries, as it has in the pilot programs for Pepsi Co. and Frito-Lay for the past several years.
It will enter mass production this year, Musk confirmed on X over the weekend.
Now that the company’s dedicated Semi production facility in Sparks, Nevada, is standing, the timeline seems much more realistic as the vehicle has had its mass manufacturing date adjusted on several occasions.
Tesla exec: Preparations underway but no firm timeline yet for FSD rollout in China
Tesla Semi lines up for $165M in California incentives ahead of mass production
