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Elon Musk and SpaceX won’t be stopped along the road to Mars

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If one is to take anything at all away from Elon Musk’s update to SpaceX’s planetary colonization strategy on September 29, it ought to be the tangible and undeniable progress the company has made with real, Mars-focused hardware development.

To take Musk at his word, the general atmosphere pervading the two relevant programs is one of extreme success and confidence. Raptor, the powerful methane-oxygen rocket engine intended to be the workhorse for any larger launch vehicle, has conducted dozens (42, to be specific) of successful hot fires at SpaceX’s McGregor, Texas testing facilities. These ranged from a handful of seconds all the way to 100 seconds in duration, and Musk made it explicitly clear that the only limiting factor to test duration was the size of the tanks of propellant available to fuel the engine. Of crucial importance is the fact that the engine being tested in Texas is a subscale prototype, and is not representative of the final engine. However, SpaceX has since shrunk the final target for operational Raptors, and this means that the current scale is not far off from the final thrust figure. The prototype Raptor is believed to have a thrust of approximately 1,000 kN (Kilonewtons), with slides from Musk’s 2017 presentation pointing to a full scale thrust of 1700 kN, far closer to becoming real than the 3,000 kN figure given at the 2016 IAC.

Possibly even more significant is the reported success SpaceX has had with the construction and stress testing of a full-scale carbon fiber liquid oxygen tank, which was tested to a very eventful destruction on Washington state’s Puget Sound. Fans closely followed this series of tests, but information was scarce and the general consensus was that the tank had failed unintentionally during those tests. The fact that Musk claimed that the 12 meter diameter tank was “successfully tested” at high pressures, as well as the confidence he expressed about a uniquely capable “carbon fiber matrix”, suggest that SpaceX have leaped over one of biggest potential hurdles of their larger vehicle plans. Carbon fiber propellant tanks have the potential to make rockets significantly lighter and thus more efficient, particularly if no internal liner of metal is needed to ensure the safety of those carbon fiber tanks. One might remember the difficulties SpaceX had with supercool liquid oxygen, culminating in the Amos-6 mishap that saw carbon fiber helium tanks clash with SpaceX’s then-new supercooled propellant procedures.

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Through many challenging mistakes, SpaceX has learned the hard way that extra care must be taken when mixing carbon fiber and liquid oxygen. The telltale sign that SpaceX has, however, successfully learned from those mistakes can be found in the company’s aspiration to begin construction of the first BFR cargo ship as early as April of 2018, barely six months from today. Time will tell if they can maintain that aggressive schedule and launch two Mars-bound cargo ships in 2022. The company’s incontrovertible success with the development of Raptor engines and carbon fiber propellant tanks bode extremely well for the future of their planetary colonization efforts.

Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

Investor's Corner

Tesla enters new stability phase, firm upgrades and adjusts outlook

Dmitriy Pozdnyakov of Freedom Capital upgraded his outlook on Tesla shares from “Sell” to “Hold” on Wednesday, and increased the price target from $338 to $406.

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Credit: Tesla China

Tesla is entering a new phase of stability in terms of vehicle deliveries, one firm wrote in a new note during the final week of October, backing its position with an upgrade and price target increase on the stock.

Dmitriy Pozdnyakov of Freedom Capital upgraded his outlook on Tesla shares from “Sell” to “Hold” on Wednesday, and increased the price target from $338 to $406.

While most firms are interested in highlighting Tesla’s future growth, which will be catalyzed mostly by the advent of self-driving vehicles, autonomy, and the company’s all-in mentality on AI and robotics, Pozdnyakov is solely focusing on vehicle deliveries.

The analyst wrote in a note to investors that he believes Tesla’s updated vehicle lineup, which includes its new affordable “Standard” trims of the Model 3 and Model Y, is going to stabilize the company’s delivery volumes and return the company to annual growth.

Tesla launches two new affordable models with ‘Standard’ Model 3, Y offerings

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Tesla launched the new affordable Model 3 and Model Y “Standard” trims on October 7, which introduced two stripped-down, less premium versions of the all-electric sedan and crossover.

They are both priced at under $40,000, with the Model 3 at $37,990 and the Model Y at $39,990, and while these prices may not necessarily be what consumers were expecting, they are well under what Kelley Blue Book said was the average new car transaction price for September, which swelled above $50,000.

Despite the rollout of these two new models, it is interesting to hear that a Wall Street firm would think that Tesla is going to return to more stable delivery figures and potentially enter a new growth phase.

Many Wall Street firms have been more focused on AI, Robotics, and Tesla’s self-driving project, which are the more prevalent things that will drive investor growth over the next few years.

Wedbush’s Dan Ives, for example, tends to focus on the company’s prowess in AI and self-driving. However, he did touch on vehicle deliveries in the coming years in a recent note.

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Ives said in a note on October 2:

“While EV demand is expected to fall with the EV tax credit expiration, this was a great bounce-back quarter for TSLA to lay the groundwork for deliveries moving forward, but there is still work to do to gain further ground from a delivery perspective.”

Tesla has some things to figure out before it can truly consider guaranteed stability from a delivery standpoint. Initially, the next two quarters will be a crucial way to determine demand without the $7,500 EV tax credit. It will also begin to figure out if its new affordable models are attractive enough at their current price point to win over consumers.

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Elon Musk

Tesla preps for a harsh potential reality if Musk comp vote doesn’t go to plan

A successful vote for Tesla would see the compensation package get approved. But there is always the possibility of a rejection, which would likely see Musk leave the company.

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tesla cybertruck elon musk
Tesla CEO Elon Musk unveils futuristic Cybertruck in Los Angeles, Nov. 21, 2019 (Photo: Teslarati)

Tesla could be forced to look for a new CEO in the coming months, as a crucial November 6 Shareholder Meeting vote will determine whether Elon Musk will stick around.

A major vote is coming up at the 2025 Tesla Shareholder Meeting, as investors will determine whether Musk should be given a new compensation plan that would award him up to $1 trillion and more than one-fourth of the total voting power within the company.

Tesla board chair reiterates widely unmentioned point of Musk comp plan

A successful vote for Tesla would see the compensation package get approved. But there is always the possibility of a rejection, which would likely see Musk leave the company.

“My fundamental concern with regard to how much voting control I have at Tesla is if I go ahead and build this enormous robot army, can I just be ousted at some point in the future? That’s my biggest concern,” Musk said at last week’s Earnings Call. “That’s what it comes down to in a nutshell. I don’t feel comfortable wielding that robot army if I don’t have at least a strong influence.”

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Tesla Board of Directors Head Robyn Denholm has been on somewhat of a PR tour over the past few days, answering questions about the compensation plan, which is among the biggest issues currently for the company.

Denholm told Bloomberg yesterday that Tesla investors need to be prepared for Musk to abandon ship if the package is not approved, which brings on a new question: Who would take over the CEO role?

That is a question Denholm also answered yesterday, bringing forth the conclusion that Tesla would not look for an outside hire if Musk were to leave the company. Instead, it would promote someone internally.

The way it was reported by Bloomberg and Reuters seems to make it seem as if Tesla is preparing for the worst, as it states the company “is looking at internal CEO candidates,” not preparing to do so.

Of the executives at Tesla who immediately come to mind as ideal candidates for a potential takeover should Musk leave, Tesla China President Tom Zhu and Head of AI Ashok Elluswamy both come to mind. Zhu has monumental executive experience already, as he was appointed to the role of Senior VP of Automotive back in December 2022.

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He then returned to China in 2024.

It seems Tesla wants to align its future, with or without Musk, on the same path that it is currently on, and internal candidates might have a better idea of what that looks like and truly means.

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Tesla Full Self Driving (FSD) is nearing approval in a new country

As per the official, Tesla’s Full Self-Driving system could be enabled in Israel in the near future.

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Credit: @BLKMDL3/X

It appears that Tesla FSD (Supervised) is heading to a new country soon, at least based on comments from Israel’s Transport and Road Safety Minister Miri Regev.

As per the official, Tesla’s Full Self-Driving system could be enabled in Israel in the near future.

Israeli drivers are pushing for FSD rollout

While Tesla’s FSD is already operational in markets like the U.S., Canada, and Australia, Israeli owners have long been unable to use the feature due to regulatory barriers. Despite its premium price tag, however, numerous Tesla owners in Israel have noted that the technology’s safety benefits, at least when approved for real-world use in the country, justify its cost. 

It was then no surprise that nearly 1,000 Tesla owners in Israel have already petitioned the government to greenlight FSD’s domestic release in Israel. In a post on X, Regev seemed to confirm that FSD is indeed coming to Israel. “I’ve received the many referrals from Tesla drivers in Israel! Tesla drivers? Soon you won’t need to hold the steering wheel,” she wrote in her post.

FSD’s regulatory support in Israel

Regev stated that her Ministry views promoting innovative technologies as essential to improving both road safety and smart mobility. A working group led by Moshe Ben-Zaken, Director General of the Ministry of Transportation has reportedly been tasked to finalize the approval process, coordinating with regulatory and safety agencies to ensure compliance with international standards.

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In a comment to Geektime, Israel’s Ministry of Transportation and Road Safety noted that Regev is indeed supporting the release of FSD in the country. “Minister Regev sees great importance in promoting innovative technologies, and in particular in the entry of advanced driving systems (FSD) into the Israeli market, as part of the ministry’s policy to encourage innovation, safety, and smart transportation,” the Ministry stated.

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